Assuming level 1 (I hope), a Goblin Commando from Bestiary 1 has an Attack of +8 with their shortbow and deal 1d6, not 2d6.
What’s everyone AC?
2D6+1D10, or 1D6×2+1D10, is the correct crit damage though.
The Deadly Trait is pretty... deadly.
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Derp, Fatal increases the size, Deadly adds, plus doubling for Crit, my bad (was wondering why it apparently jumped 2 for sizes). Why I shouldn’t post after just waking up :3
The casters I can see dropping due to their lower AC and HP, do the melees not hassle the enemy to keep them from targeting them?
Or rather, what are the enemies makeup and what are the tactics for both? need more info than “Gobbos crit gud”. (Not an insult, I just wanted to say that).
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What is everyone's AC? Because crits shouldn't be as common as you seem to be finding them.
Average AC on...really, all of the characters you list other than the Sorcerer and maybe the Wizard should be 17 or higher, making the odds of being crit even by a Goblin Commando (who are the equal of 1st level PCs, and should not be the primary goblins you're fighting) are only 1 in 10 on the first attack and worse thereafter.
The Sorcerer and Wizard are a bit squishier and easier to crit, but should also be literally standing behind beefier party members. Yes, the penalty for shooting into melee is gone, but there are still penalties for trying to shoot directly through another PC. They should also be standing next to the Paladin so they can use their Retributive Strike as a damage reducer.
As for the Sorcerer, yeah, there are some problems there. First, they would've been a lot better prioritizing Dex over Con (AC is extremely vital to survivability this edition, more so than HP in many ways). Personally, I'd allow them to make that switch (to Dex 14, Con 12) even now, as it will help. They should definitely switch to a crossbow, and be willing to use it. They should also, as others note, pick up Intimidate and use that. Demoralize is a really great debuff on par with many low level spells this edition, and they'll feel a lot better if they get some use out of it.
The point you make about their tactics is also well founded in PF2. A lot of the time in PF2, success has more to do with in-the-moment tactical choices than it does with build choices from character creation.
Yeah, but even with their +8 to hit, a group of 1st level PCs shouldn't be getting crit that often unless they've severely mismanaged their AC. The average AC of 17 requires a 19 or a 20 to crit and that 19 disappears with one Intimidate.
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On weapons, Sling is not normally the strongest weapon, although you might want to carry one if a bunch of Skeletons appear for example (re: Bludgeoning damage). If you are worried about enemy bow crits, the simplest solution is... replacing them with crossbows, although those are flatly weaker (as Simple weapons), so you could also do as somebody else suggested and remove Bows' Deadly Trait and increase damage die by 1... until your players (and yourself) are competent enough at game system that they can deal with them...
It will also help to be out of ultra-low level range where single crits with Deadly Trait simply are most lethal relative to PC HPs. (Scythes, Picks, Glaives are even more so with full STR to Damage) Ultimately a tangible risk and lethality at low levels was/is desired part of the system, to "feel" like "beginner adventurer" is actually something dangerous, so it's not something that goes away entirely... Better understanding and tactics just lets you MORE OFTEN survive those levels.
For Divine list (Angelic Sorceror), it's limitations in spell variety is obvious: generally much sparser in terms of direct damage options compared to other Traditions (while being great at healing and buffs), but learning how to work with it is just part of learning curve. Divine Lance is OK when it works (vs eligible Alignments), but you really want to be making most of your 3rd action when you cast it since it doesn't do the most damage (and still needs roll to hit, also penalizing other attack with weapon you might make). Compare it to Daze and Chill Touch: both are more "reliable" in terms of damage since they still do half on Successful Save (i.e. similar chances to Missing on Attack) which significantly increases AVERAGE damage dealt... And not being an "Attack" means they don't penalize any other Attacks you might make with weapon (as 3rd action), so your total round average damage may be higher: You can't just think in terms of direct comparisons, but want to consider efficacy of entire turn (3 actions). While Daze itself does a bit less average damage, it has 2x the range and chance for major debuff on Crit, while Chill Touch actually does more damage as well as chance for debuff effect. In terms of range, consider how Reach Spell Metamagic can help: spending a 3rd action on Reach Spell allows Chill Touch to become 30 ft range, so IMHO is better choice than Divine Lance within 30 feet (and Daze + 3rd action attack or some other useful action may be better choice than Reach+Divine Lance within 60 ft).
Mostly it seems like main problem is not this specific mechanic (enemy bow crits) but overall lack of player (and GM) familiarity with rules and their implications... Which is normal and applied to many people who were "experts" at 1E rules. When you don't have solid grasp on system, you aren't going to make good informed choices, and will just make most apparent choices even if ill-advised for specific situation like Heal example. Knowing when to use Raise Shield or Intimidate is low level stuff available to many/most characters, yet might not be obvious to players since it wasn't emphasized specifically for THEIR character. When rules are telling them 3-action Heal is relevant option for their character (and "more is better" is default thinking) they might go to that instead of considering tactical benefits of significantly more healing targetted at one character. Just discussing these dynamics is major way to help the learning curve progress... If you feel like it, have NPCs use good tactics and openly discuss why they make these choices (so PCs can understand the tactics). This may not be for every group, but if you want some practice to progress on learning curve, maybe do some "arena combats" so nobody gets too attached to character roleplaying while they are just learning the rules.
BTW, it might not directly help (and may seem to directly hinder) OP, but the comment about getting sniped leading to PC not wanting to get within 30 feet makes me thing you are misunderstanding the rules. Ranged weapon increments are not maximum ranges (as spell ranges are): Each increment beyond 1st just applies -2 penalty, and the maximum range is 6 increments (at -10 penalty). So while you can use range to your advantage (penalizing enemy attacks VS you), it's not such a strong universal tactic if it means you are doing nothing. (sometimes you do just want to run away though, even if just for a round or two, although actually breaking line of sight is preferred if enemy has ranged weapons... sometimes you can break enemy line of sight while keeping it for casting ranged buffs on allies, for example) I don't think anybody is really surprised that doing nothing is not really a way to "win", so that is just a really obvious sign that everybody needs to learn and progress on the learning curve more. (literal expertise isn't really needed, it's just a matter of "grokking" the paradigm and using the tools given to every character)
On other characters...
Ruffian Rogue using gauntlets is weak as primary option as you identified. Maybe if they want to use a Longspear most of the time, and are ambushed by skeletons all of a sudden, it could be easy to drop a hand to make Bludgeoning attacks, but it's not really something to aim for ahead of time.
Flurry Ranger should be OK, and remember if they are using action for Companion, the Companion benefits from Flurry bonus also... Although with Bear their Support action is just automatic damage everytime you hit the target they also threaten.
Paladin is pretty solid, just make sure the player is positioning to be able to use Reaction to best extent possible.
Crane Monk is pretty solid, so it's mostly just learning curve of basic combat stuff.
Universalist Wizard probably has Hand of Apprentice? It's actually great 1-action spell you can use each combat, bigger damage weapon makes it better (if they have proficiency from Ancestry or something) but combo'ing it with 2-action spell that doesn't have Attack trait is ideal since neither is penalized from MAP (although using HoA + Attack spell isn't really worse than martial character making 2 attacks for example, especially if it's Agile weapon). Discussion of Angelic Sorceror Cantrips broadly applies to Wizard too, Wizard just has much better/broader options for damage and combat spells with Arcane list.
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that 19 disappears with one Intimidate.
"First of all, Goblin bow crits are often one-shotting players from across the map."
Demoralize: "Choose a creature within 30 feet of you who you’re aware of."
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Personally, I think that one problem is that the angelic sorcerer is currently a moderately poor class. A cleric seems to fit pretty much the same role except, uh, better. If changing class is an option at this point the player might consider switching to a cleric instead (with some Cha can even still fill the face role if that is important)
One thing to seriously consider would be a way to get some offensive cantrips. There are various ways depending upon race. Electric arc and Ray of Frost are both really good candidates. It will somewhat increase the characters effectiveness but (at least for me) it massively increases how much fun a character is to play.
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I'm not the original poster, but for the record Goblin Warriors (level -1) are just as deadly with their bows as Goblin Commandos. Both have +8 to hit and deal 1d6 base damage, with Deadly 1d10 on a crit.
Fair, but that was a side issue at best. My main point, as Ruzza notes, was that with 17 AC, even that should result in pretty few crits.
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The average AC of 17 requires a 19 or a 20 to crit and that 19 disappears with one Intimidate.Yeah, but if four CR-1 goblins get off three shots each round 1 that's about a 50% chance to get at least one natural 20.
That's not quite how the math works. Especially if you're using the range penalty like you said you were. But let's ignore that for now and look at some charts! I love charts.
Here we have a simple chart for the goblins' first attack. They have a 10% chance to crit with their 0 MAP attack against an appropriately armored PC (17 AC). That's REALLY good! If goblins are a range increment away, that goes down to the 5% chance. Y'know, a 20. But again, ignoring that.
Here are the follow up attacks at -5 and -10 MAP subsequently. You'll notice that the chance to crit really hasn't gone down! It's still at 5%! So... each goblin, ONLY Striking with their shortbow at max range (no range increment penalties) have a 10%/5%/5% chance to crit and subsequently that same thing for their companions. That doesn't mean that the odds of that crit happening are increasing, but that they're having more opportunities to make those rolls. 50% is just... an arbitrary number.
So if you're rolling well, the solution is to... I don't know? Not roll well? Fudge the dice?
EDIT: As a player, I would be okay with weathering a storm of 12 arrows if that meant I have to take cover (either by dropping prone, hiding behind my champion, or getting behind a rock or wall). The goblins did nothing with their turn and my monk or rogue should make quick work of them. "Oh, hey, two Strides and a Strike against a low-AC, low-HP target? Thanks, goblins!"
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Not when the caster wins initiative, misses with a ray of frost, and then goblin shoots back, rolls a 20, and the caster drops before the melee even acts.
Sure. But one piece of bad luck does not a problem make. This could easily happen in any edition of PF1 and most of D&D. 1st level is a fragile level, especially for casters, and a single crit from most foes will drop you if it happens.
You're walking through a forest and four Goblin Warriors ambush you (four CR -1 mobs for CR3 total against six level 1s).
And they all succeed at their Stealth rolls and all win initiative?! That's a pretty low probability event. I mean, their stealth is +5 (which is mediocre initiative, though your party in particular looks worse at initiative than average), but you roll for them each individually. And there are no surprise rounds per se in PF2.
Wait, are you not rolling for the goblins' initiative each individually? Because if you're doing group initiative that has really bad ripple effects in PF2 and is a terrible idea (and is also not how the rules work).
Goblins shoot stuff from like 60-90 feet away.
Sure. Goblins shouldn't universally be using optimal tactics, though. their societal notes and abysmal Wisdom both strongly indicate that they should be making bad life choices in their tactics at least some of the time.
Also...you said this is a forest, can't the PCs take cover while moving towards them and using their own ranged attacks?
When the party is facing goblins at level 1 I don't have much variety. Mainly some Goblin Warriors with the odd CR1 goblin as a miniboss.
That makes good sense.
He doesn't have intimidate trained. And I'm not sure he'd want his character to do that in combat.
Maybe ask him? Or suggest one of the other solutions (like grabbing another combat cantrip), of course.
That's basically the problem, yes.
Like the Goblin Warriors have all of 6 HP so sneeze on them and they die but they can drop a level 1 fighter with full HP on a crit.
Not reliably, but yes. Of course, the average damage of such a crit (12.5) is exactly the same as the average healing that a single 2 action heal spell provides. So...not an impossible or unbeatable amount of damage.
Yeah, but if four CR-1 goblins get off three shots each round 1 that's about a 50% chance to get at least one natural 20.
Sure...but what are the odds that all of them even get to go? For two rounds? I mean, I'd expect that at least a couple might die before their initiative happens.
With those odds, I'd expect maybe one crit every three fights., and maybe another hit or two on top of that, and very little else. It also assumes they are always at liberty to stay back and shoot. If the PCs have run into this tactic before perhaps they could scout ahead and arrange things so as to fight the goblins in a way that is more advantageous to them?
More that the sorcerer feels he has nothing good to do.
And yes, range increments are being applied properly, the goblin using a shortbow 65-120 feet away has a -2 penalty.
The Sorcerer appears to have made a character whose highest offensive stat beyond 30 feet is a 12, and is unwilling to get within 30 feet to actually use his (probably lethal) cantrip. He needs to do something different, whether tactically or in terms of build.
Is there a way for him to make it work? He wants to be a brass knuckled underworld brawler.
Tell him to get a nice cudgel (read: mace) to go with his gauntlets at this level. That's very in-theme for an underworld brawler or strong-arm man. At 2nd level, he can grab Monk Multiclass and get to 1d6 on his base unarmed attacks if he really wants to lean into it. Not quite as good as a mace, but not terrible either.
Well..I had to convince him his strength shouldn't be 10.
Fair enough.
50% is just... an arbitrary number.No, it isn't. Each attack has a 95% chance NOT to roll a 20. There's 12 attacks. 0.95 ^ 12 = 54% chance to NEVER roll a 20 on 12 attacks. And a 46% chance to get 1 (or more) crits.
See, that's where my big mouth gets me in trouble. I'm not a mathematician in any way.
EDIT: Ah, I'm sorry, I'm not actually helping. DMW is the one to turn to here.
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Level 1 wizards, sorcerers, and cloistered clerics are extremely vulnerable. The game design is actually extremely inflexible here. All characters of these classes should start with an 18 in their casting stat and a 16 in dexterity. If at all possible, these casters should try to pick up the light armor proficiency general feat as soon as possible or pick up an archetype for the armor at level 2.
One assumption for how the game is balanced is that the players have maxed out their primary attack stat and AC. It's one of the more unfortunate parts of the system at low levels, though it isn't really a problem at higher levels. You can consider choking up on the bat a bit for the first few levels in order to correct for this.
Further, the level -1 goblins having a +8 attack stat puts them as a high attack variant monster for their level. Having these guys ambush the players at range is one of the most deadly setups a level 1 party can face, and it is likely to bring some players down.
Edit: Also, these casters should get a shield and use it. There is no specific proficiency for raising a shield to get the +2 AC.
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From all that, it really sounds like the main issue here with the goblins is just bad stinking luck. Nothing can save you if you can't hit the foe and they all roll 20s to hit you.
That can happen in any one fight, but it sounds like this has been going on for longer than that. How many fights with goblins are we talking here?
Anyhow, it's not a matter of "rolling well" on the Goblin's attack rolls, which is slightly better than OP's original 50%.
The issue of "rolling well" is for Init, if all Goblins can make 3 attacks before PC can attack/take cover/break line of sight.
Assuming 50/50 chances, the chances of 4 Goblins winning Init vs one PC are a bit above 6%, or ~12% if there is only 3 Goblins.
But with 60/40 chances due to PC WIS or situational advantages, that becomes ~13% for 4 "Goblins" or ~22% if only 3 "Goblins".
(although if there is 4 "Goblins", the chances of 3 of 4 winning Init would of course be higher than just 3 "Goblins" total)
That isn't extremely common, but also not extremely uncommon (people do spend Feats/Spells/Gold on 20% miss chance after all).
So the "slow PC" getting better chances to live that ~20% of the time hinges on allies acting before all 4 or 3 Goblins can act.
That's likely, but they need to actually drop a Goblin, which is more likely if they focus fire VS *ones that haven't acted yet*.
I think that's definitely a tactical dynamic that may not be obvious to new players, especially ones averse to obvious good choices :-)
...Or if uncertain of achieving that, they could take measures like blocking line of sight/effect, like with a simple smokestick.
Even just moving so their own body obscures line of fire VS vulnerable ally imposes penalties for soft cover as others mentioned.
Although these numbers are based on all Goblins targetting the Unarmored Sorceror in question, rather than any other threatening PCs.
If such a character truly is so un-dangerous, I'm not sure why even Goblins would priority target them VS other PCs presenting threat.
It's been recognized that melee characters are stronger in this edition, so it seems reasonable they may be priority targetted often.
Especially when terrain or combat layout wouldn't impede them from doing their job, i.e. moving to threaten/attack 1 or more enemy.
(Caster efficacy even partially hinging on not being #1 target is hit to their egos coming from 1E, but they kinda had it coming...)
That is assuming "Goblins" are fighting to win, with sense of self preservation, not "let's CritFish for PC kill" vs weakest target.
(although animals hunting prety to eat may reasonably target weakest target, as could enemies acting under strategic perspective)
As to "Goblins are not wise and shouldn't make optimum choices"...
That seems a ridiculous response given ANYBODY with a bow and +8 modifier can do same (and it's still relevant with less modifier).
It's not any sort of complex tactic, it's literally "make all the attacks you can".
Which is otherwise treated as POOR tactic on these boards, so I'm not sure why it becomes tactical genius when a Goblin does it.
What's the alternative? 2 attacks and withdraw? And this is supposed to be helping the PC in question here? ;-)
On the non-Monk PC who doesn't want to use real weapons, that is just refusing to accept game premises.
Tell them they are a Level 1 weakling so they can suck it up and if they don't act dumb maybe they will live to Level 2.
But more broadly, there is idea that you need to fully/narrowly optimize in order to successfully play 2E, which IMHO is not true.
You don't necessarily need to fully max AC at Level 1... although it is expected you try to pursue that in broader timescale.
16 DEX is best Unarmored Caster can start with, and they can't actually hit Unarmored DEX cap (for Item bonus) until Level 15.
So if they start at 14 they are 5 levels behind, but that's really fine. Likewise if others are 1 or 2 behind armor cap at Level 1.
It's more just that players should be aware how they can be maximizing AC at level 1 (and when they plan to hit max AC cap).
That's not the critical factor here IMHO, although some of the poor choices seem less "naieve newby" and more "delusional arrogance".
There definitely is a learning curve to the game, whether pure newbies or those coming from different editions,
but IMHO you will find better enjoyment (yours and PCs) if you don't spend more effort on those actively resisting game premise.
There is plenty of ways newbies can make naieve mistakes or overlook opportunities the game gives them, but difference is usually clear.
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You're walking through a forest and four Goblin Warriors ambush you (four CR -1 mobs for CR3 total against six level 1s).Goblins shoot stuff from like 60-90 feet away.
Yeah, but if four CR-1 goblins get off three shots each round 1 that's about a...
In terms of XP Budgett 4 goblin warriors is a Low Encounter for a level 1 party of 6 pcs.
You are doing the MAP ok? and in a forest with plenty of threes, pcs easily get bonus in terms of standard cover
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Looks like you did everything well, low levels are swingy, if you roll well players will go down. If they don't go down when you roll well, then there wasn't really any challenge…
Also sorcerer is probably the least effective class at level 1 other than the alchemist, especially divine sorcerers that don't have the over powered electric arc…
Not having a 16 Dex also lowers their ac.
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You also stumbled upon one of the most dangerous level-1 enemies because bows are very powerful weapons. Hopefully the PCs now realize that they need a way to deal with this in the future. With cover your PCs should be able to make the 3rd attack incapable of critting, which will help a lot with survivability.
Letting the goblins sit in cover and shoot a bunch is a bad strategy though and if the terrain suits letting the enemy start this way, you need to be aware that it is like boosting the difficulty by one.
But all that is good. It is good for low level parties to be forced into realizing that the circumstances of the combat need to dictate their tactics. Lots if low level creatures with bows in open terrain is very dangerous a situation to find yourself in.
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I didnt find lvl1 5e any less swingy. You've got even less hp compared to damage values there.
Pretty much, this is why it's popular in 5e to start at lvl 3. At lvl 1 a Wizard there have 8HP with 14 Constitution an can go to 0 with a single longbow shot of 1d8 and that is without counting the dex modifier that go in damage as well...
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I think the solution here, if your players aren't feeling heroic, is to explain to them that they aren't heroes at level one. They're adventurers, but they've done little to no actual fighting and they have no experience. If they don't find it exciting to almost die to goblins (which I think is perfectly fine, level one isn't much stronger than a slightly strong townfolk, they should be about even with a goblin) then have them start at a higher level. The odds of getting one shot go way down the higher level everyone gets, casters start to get a lot more versatility, etc.
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From all that, it really sounds like the main issue here with the goblins is just bad stinking luck.
... Killing Level 1 characters since 1974. (Except maybe in Fourth Edition.)
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Derp, Fatal increases the size, Deadly adds, plus doubling for Crit, my bad (was wondering why it apparently jumped 2 for sizes). Why I shouldn’t post after just waking up :3
The casters I can see dropping due to their lower AC and HP, do the melees not hassle the enemy to keep them from targeting them?
Or rather, what are the enemies makeup and what are the tactics for both? need more info than “Gobbos crit gud”. (Not an insult, I just wanted to say that).
Fatal both increases, then doubles, then adds another die.
So basically Fatal includes Deadly (with new die size).
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Derp, Fatal increases the size, Deadly adds, plus doubling for Crit, my bad (was wondering why it apparently jumped 2 for sizes). Why I shouldn’t post after just waking up :3
The casters I can see dropping due to their lower AC and HP, do the melees not hassle the enemy to keep them from targeting them?
Or rather, what are the enemies makeup and what are the tactics for both? need more info than “Gobbos crit gud”. (Not an insult, I just wanted to say that).
Fatal both increases, then doubles, then adds another die.
So basically Fatal includes Deadly (with new die size).
*rereads*
Wow that’s gnarly.
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Yeah, fatal is rad. I don't do math, but the way I've been considering the two traits is that fatal is like an old x4 crit, while deadly is an old x3 crit.
Also something to be aware of for future encounters is that a Nat 20 isn’t an auto hit/Crit, it just raises the result by one step (this is meaningless for starting out with ACs that low but as they rise it helps a bunch).
Its not relevant for the casters here, but it actually does matter for the others since they're in a forest. If they can take cover, the last attack can't hit them.
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This is what is fun about 1st level :) Working as it should from my perspective :)
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I didnt find lvl1 5e any less swingy. You've got even less hp compared to damage values there.Then you need to try again :)
Believe you me, we found PF2 MUCH more lethal and swingy at low levels.
No thank you... ;p
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And my players are specifically raising the complaint that they don't feel heroic when they haven't ended a fight without someone on the ground. And I doubt they'll feel heroic if it's the six of them beating up two goblins...and even just two goblins could still drop one or more people with some lucky rolls.
Just making sure I'm getting all those negatives right (negate don't with haven't):
You're saying they would feel heroic only when they have ended a fight without anyone dropping?
If their expectation is that people shouldn't drop when an enemy critical hits, I don't think that is necessarily an expectation the rules support at level 1. Its not just shortbows. Most CR 0 or CR 1 enemies on a melee critical are doing like 2d6+6 or 2d8+8.
It sounds like the party overall is still winning these fights, and no character(s) have has actually died, right? I think that is in fact the expectation.
Its even more true for a 6 person party instead of a 4 person party.
Larger parties means there can be more focus fire on a single member of the party from the larger, balanced opposition, making it more likely that single member goes down.
Four goblin warriors crit fishing against a party of six is more likely to drop someone than three goblin warriors crit fishing against a party of four. Fewer attack rolls on the goblins part, so only 9 chances of rolling a 20 instead of 12.
If your players don't like having someone sometimes drop against 4 goblin warriors as not heroic, I'll simply point out 4 goblin warriors are worth the same XP as a single Ogre Warrior (four level-2 are worth one level+2). And if an Ogre warrior gets even 2 attacks off, let alone all 3, someone is dropping in the party (+12 to hit, 1d10+7 damage).
I'd ask your players if they expect no one to sometimes drop when up against an Ogre warrior? Its still a low threat encounter for a party of 6.
As for practical tactical decisions before they get to act, I have a question for you. Do you allow your player's characters to take reactions before they have acted in those encounters? If so, there are exploration activities which will help a lot.
If they have a shield, they should be using Defend, for the +1 to +2 AC, and more so for the shield block ability. A steel shield can block a 22 damage crit, reduce it to 17, and still be able to be repaired later. Probably only applies to the Paladin, although in principle any of the melee characters could reasonably use one, even without shield block, for the extra +2 AC at the start of a fight.
The wizard and sorcerer should be using Repeat a Spell to have the Shield cantrip up. That will boost their effective 1st turn hit points by 5. Sorcerer would need to take 8 (human?) + 6 + 2 + 5 = 21 damage to drop on round 1. Possible, but highly unlikely on 2d6+1d10 (about 1.1% chance).
A Rogue using Avoid Notice should have good odds of not being spotted by goblin warriors at the start of combat (Perception +2 versus trained stealth of +7?) in addition to straight out winning initiative.
Someone using Scout also boosts the party's initiative by 1, to help beat the goblin warrior's +2.
Those are some things the characters could do to minimize first turn initiative wins plus random criticals by opposing ranged striking groups.
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A few suggestions. First make sure everyone understands that their AC can actually matter in PF2. It can actually be a change that doesn’t sink in, especially seeing as you seem to be rolling a statistically unlikely number of 20s. That can leave them feeling like their new higher numbers matter even less than their old low ones. In PF1 I can remember any non cleric caster of mine that broke AC 13, you simply couldn’t keep your number high enough to matter so I and others didn’t, we went for HP and positioning instead. But in this edition your proficiency bonus and just a little attention will do the work for you. Let them know that even unarmored a 14 or 16 Dex means the enemy will miss a lot more. You don’t need to take extra feats for better proficiency, you can get the same bonus from strapping a buckler on and getting the +1 there.
As for the rogue, let them go for it. I actually play a ruffian rogue with gauntlets too and have yet to feel like I’m missing out on damage I could have had. The actual difference between gauntlets and another weapon is only 1 point, maybe 2 a round. In trade for that point a round I always have my hands free. Since I play medic a lot that means I never have to argue with a GM about battle medic, I can raise the buckler I never bothered to take a feat for wherever I like, I took a multi class into cleric and can use the focus and spells without checking to see if I’m holding everything right, and I can do any weird rogue or skill thing that crosses my mind without having to drop or sheath. That’s a lot of flexibility and in my mind well worth the loss of a little damage for a skill focused class.
On the sorcerer, I can see several things they might try to improve their combat abilities, or just behaviors I could suggest, but it really sounds like this player isn’t quite on board with the combat focus you’re aiming for in your game. That’s probably the point to settle instead of trying to “fix” their character’s mechanics.
Just my thoughts, feel free to take or leave. And hope more fun is had in the mean time.
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Honestly my suggestion as a GM is:
1) Use sub-optimal tactics. Have the goblins run out from behind cover, shoot, and then move back into cover. While this means that PCs can't attack back with range, it also means the gobbos are only making one attack.
2) Make sure players are actually trying with AC,crits shouldn't happen that often but lucky rolls are well...lucky. As another user pointed out, a 19 or 20 is needed by the goblins to crit AC 17. Players will have 10+3(level 1 armor proficiency) + dex + armor. Usually that's going to be like 17.
3) Use less enemies. Just because the recommended CR guidelines say it's an appropriate encounter, doesn't mean it's correct. Correct is what works for your table. At early levels I would recommend avoiding having more enemies than player characters (don't include pets or minions) because low level characters can be taken out by a lucky roll. By reducing the number of enemies, you reduce the number of rolls, and reduce the chance for bad luck to kick in.