What if the Kickstarter does not reach $1M?

[htrajan]

Seems likely given that we are over halfway into the pledge timeframe and haven't even hit $500k yet.

In that case, will they try again and notify everyone who pledged to re-pledge?

[Aou]

htrajan wrote:

Seems likely given that we are over halfway into the pledge timeframe and haven't even hit $500k yet.

In that case, will they try again and notify everyone who pledged to re-pledge?

While progress on the Kickstarter has been admittedly slow (likely due to the holiday), it is still quite likely for it to succeed. Of course, your question is not whether or not it will succeed, but rather "what happens if it doesn't?"

It is my understanding, from reading the blog and sifting through the messageboards, that GoblinWorks technically has the financial backing to make Pathfinder Online a success. The biggest questions at hand are, "How MUCH of a success?" and "How SOON of a success?"

Therefore, if the Kickstarter were to not succeed, the project would still happen, but at a drastically slower pace - and it may not be as pretty as everyone (including the developers) would hope.

If worse came to worst, I would hope that they might try the Kickstarter again, perhaps during a less 'financially burdened' time of year.

[Darsch]

htrajan wrote:

Seems likely given that we are over halfway into the pledge timeframe and haven't even hit $500k yet.

In that case, will they try again and notify everyone who pledged to re-pledge?

they might but i doubt it, they have the money to make the game, this was just to get it out faster, so it all really depends on how bad they want to ship early, and if the kick starter site will let them redo this kick starter at a later date.

I expect it to succed, but its going to be close, wish they would anoune the rest of the stretch goals they hinted at so people will be more likely to pledge and get the project over the million mark, the biger it goes the bigger the emerald spire book gets and i want a book to rival the worlds largest dungeon.

[htrajan]

Well I guess my biggest concern is losing the benefits I pledged for if the Kickstarter doesn't fire. Just wondering if there is a way to re-pledge and lock those in should that happen.

[Elorebaen]

Basically, nothing associated with this KS would happen.

[Aou]

htrajan wrote:

Well I guess my biggest concern is losing the benefits I pledged for if the Kickstarter doesn't fire. Just wondering if there is a way to re-pledge and lock those in should that happen.

In that case if the Kickstarter fails for some reason, it would be advisable to stay tuned to these messageboards, Goblinworks' Facebook page, and your email account. ;)

[Mbando]

BLASPHEMY!

[Ryan Dancey]

We raised 2/3rds of the previous Kickstarter, $200,000, in the last 8 days of that campaign.

Kickstarters do not follow a linear trajectory. I expect we'll raise at least a third of the final total in the last week. We're doing just fine.

[Niilo John Van Steinburg]

I'm a backer of a number of Kickstarter projects - 13 in all. I've also watched a bunch of other projects go through the backing process, cheering them on (like the Gamers movie - not sure why I didn't back that one...). There is a common trend for most projects: lots of support comes in at the beginning; then the support plateaus for a while (I'd say the middle 80%); then there's a race at the end (a race to qualify for funding, in some cases, or a race to reach more stretch goals, in others). I say all this to lend credence to my assessment that I have no doubt that this Pathfinder Online project will reach its goal. Have no fear! My main concern is how big that dungeon gets! :o)

Of course there is a chance it won't make it, but I think it's highly unlikely at this point. A couple of those 13 projects I backed didn't look like they'd make it (the D&D Documentary and Shadowrun Online) - in fact, I was convinced they wouldn't. But they managed to pull out enough support in the dying hours to reach their goals.

I am tempted to go into the possible reasons for this general trend in crowd funding, but I think my post is long enough already ;)

- Niilo

[Soloan]

Aou wrote:

While progress on the Kickstarter has been admittedly slow (likely due to the holiday), it is still quite likely for it to succeed.

Like Aou said the Holiday likely is a large factor, some people may simply be waiting for the holiday dust to clear to look at their bank balance before they pledge.

The nature of this Kickstarter could cause people to pull the trigger a little slower as well. Other Kickstarters I have backed have been for a product that would not have been made otherwise. Pathfinder Online is going to be made regardless, this Kickstarter is a way for it to release earlier while offering backers an opportunity to put their mark on the game world before it goes live with early enrollment.

I just wish I had more friends that liked MMO's so I could spread the word better haha.

[leperkhaun]

worst case, i hope they either redo it at a lesser amount, OR they allow us to paypal, i really want into the early enrollment.

[Gedichtewicht]

leperkhaun wrote:

worst case, i hope they either redo it at a lesser amount, OR they allow us to paypal, i really want into the early enrollment.

Second that.

[Deane Beman]

It would be a huge slap in the face if this doesn't meet it's goal...and could likely hinder outside investors. That said I expect two things to happen about a week before crunch time:

1. An added incentive to encourage those who have already backed the project to pledge a bit more, and
2. New perks to entice those sitting on the fence to take the plunge.

Right now I currently occupy a spot on the fence. If there were an actual pledge level for the print pack add on as opposed to some ambiguous add on; or it there were a "just the minis" pledge level I would already be a backer.

I look forward to seeing what tricks get pulled out of the hat as the deadline draws near.

[Darsch]

Deane Beman wrote:

It would be a huge slap in the face if this doesn't meet it's goal...and could likely hinder outside investors. That said I expect two things to happen about a week before crunch time:

1. An added incentive to encourage those who have already backed the project to pledge a bit more, and
2. New perks to entice those sitting on the fence to take the plunge.

Right now I currently occupy a spot on the fence. If there were an actual pledge level for the print pack add on as opposed to some ambiguous add on; or it there were a "just the minis" pledge level I would already be a backer.

I look forward to seeing what tricks get pulled out of the hat as the deadline draws near.

there isa a pledge for the print pack add on, just pledge 105 dollars, select 5dollar reward tier, when the kick starter is over and you get sent the survey get your book shipped to you, the minis on the otherhand is going to require a bit more money.

[leperkhaun]

I wish there was a pledge level between the 100 and the 400 level that did not involve multiple copies.

I dont know maybe a 200 and 300 level with the 200 being an enhanced new players package and an enhanced alliance pack, and them maybe the 300 level would apply those to all characters on your account.

Personally i like the 400 level, but id only choose it for a character that was important to me, and i cannot get over giving that character to GW.

[TheDarklord]

Deane Beman wrote:

1. An added incentive to encourage those who have already backed the project to pledge a bit more

I would certainly pledge more for a T shirt. :-)

Daniel.

[Drakhan Valane]

Deane Beman wrote:

It would be a huge slap in the face if this doesn't meet it's goal...and could likely hinder outside investors.

They already have those, so I wouldn't worry.

[Deane Beman]

Drakhan Valane wrote:

Deane Beman wrote:

It would be a huge slap in the face if this doesn't meet it's goal...and could likely hinder outside investors.

They already have those, so I wouldn't worry.

I'm not worried...it's not my project. However it's not out of the realm of possibility for investors to back out if they perceive a failed Kickstarter as a vote of no confidence from the potential customer base.

[Drakhan Valane]

I'm not seeing it.

[Keovar]

leperkhaun wrote:

Personally i like the 400 level, but id only choose it for a character that was important to me, and i cannot get over giving that character to GW.

Yes, I think there's a fundamental conflict of interests in a lot of those 'put your name in the game' pledge levels. Some people will feel stuck; if they don't care enough about a character to mind losing it in some way, they probably don't care enough about it to pay hundreds or thousands to put it in the game lore.

-------

The tech demo was 257k over its goal, so hopefully GW is willing to roll that in at the end if necessary to complete funding. Getting 750k is better than nothing, and working up all this anticipation for the pledge rewards only to have them fall through would sour a lot of people on the game itself.

-------

If they announced a colossal green dragon as a 1.1 million stretch goal, and if it were exclusive to the kickstarter for a couple years (meaning there was no other way to get it for that time), that could help draw in a lot of people who are generally tabletop gamers and get them to further spread the news to make sure that stretch goal is reached.

[Darsch]

Keovar wrote:

leperkhaun wrote:

Personally i like the 400 level, but id only choose it for a character that was important to me, and i cannot get over giving that character to GW.

Yes, I think there's a fundamental conflict of interests in a lot of those 'put your name in the game' pledge levels. Some people will feel stuck; if they don't care enough about a character to mind losing it in some way, they probably don't care enough about it to pay hundreds or thousands to put it in the game lore.

-------

The tech demo was 257k over its goal, so hopefully GW is willing to roll that in at the end if necessary to complete funding. Getting 750k is better than nothing, and working up all this anticipation for the pledge rewards only to have them fall through would sour a lot of people on the game itself.

-------

If they announced a colossal green dragon as a 1.1 million stretch goal, and if it were exclusive to the kickstarter for a couple years (meaning there was no other way to get it for that time), that could help draw in a lot of people who are generally tabletop gamers and get them to further spread the news to make sure that stretch goal is reached.

I am all for anything colossal sized honestly. especially a dragon.

I was under the impression that 270k was already being used with what they have already managed to get from investors. Also it is my understanding that unless they raise the 1 million on the kick starter they can not collect on any of the pledges.

[Deane Beman]

Correct...if the project does not reach its goal then nothing happens. Our payments are effectively cancelled.

That said the project will not fail...they can't let it fail because it would reflect poorly on the viability of the game. I fully expect that they will throw some enticing Hail Mary passes toward the end to push them over the top.

[Darsch]

Deane Beman wrote:

Correct...if the project does not reach its goal then nothing happens. Our payments are effectively cancelled.

That said the project will not fail...they can't let it fail because it would reflect poorly on the viability of the game. I fully expect that they will throw some enticing Hail Mary passes toward the end to push them over the top.

I do not see how it reflects poorly when the first kickstarter was overwhelmingly successful, got the investor support they needed, this kickstarter was always meant to make the game faster, they already have what they need to make the game. the game is going to come out no matter if this kickstarter fails or not.

[Deane Beman]

We are the potential customer base for this product. If it is shown that we are unwilling to support the project now an investor may interpret that as a vote of no confidence from us; if the target market won't buy in despite being thrown incentive after incentive that doesn't bode well for future growth...and a return on their investment is all an investor is truly interested in.

Imagine that an investor isn't a gamer. He or she will see a successful Kickstarter for the Tech Demo followed by a failed Kickstarter for the actual game. He or she could interpret that (however incorrectly) as the fan base being turned off in some way by the Tech Demo. They may pull their funding completely or they may be discouraged from investing more money.

I'm not saying this is what I believe; I'm merely stating that this is a possible interpretation. Since I'm a "Goblin Squad Member" I clearly bought into the first Kickstarter and will likely buy into this one as well. While I have no intention of playing the MMO I do enjoy the Pathfinder RPG and am happy to support Paizo in any small way that I can; and if that means supporting Goblinworks for the time being..then so be it.

[Being]

I would rather they added a few prime pledge levels between $100 and $400 myself, especially ones that were for solo contributors who don't need multiple players behind you.

I'd up my pledge, but I'm not very attracted to anything offered above $100 until we gat up to Alpha level. Having a Tavern is strongly attractive, but $5K is more than I can argue myself into.

[Azure_Zero]

Being wrote:

I would rather they added a few prime pledge levels between $100 and $400 myself, especially ones that were for solo contributors who don't need multiple players behind you.

I'd up my pledge, but I'm not very attracted to anything offered above $100 until we gat up to Alpha level. Having a Tavern is strongly attractive, but $5K is more than I can argue myself into.

I agree, a few prime pledge levels between $100 and $400 would be gold.

[Steve Geddes]

I wonder if it would be worthwhile to offer some items for higher pledgers which were initially mechanically valuable (superior to the easily obtainable items at startup) but which would lose their value as the crafters gradually learnt to replicate and then improve on them.

[DarkOne the Drow]

I sure more pledges would take place if the client can be supported on more platforms. In general those on other platforms would not take part in the kickstarter if there is no guaranteed that the client would work on their platform.

Why support something when you can't use it. Just a thought for the developers to think about.

[Tyveil]

I don't understand the trending at all. Why would there be such a surge at the end? Are the stats around all projects or $1M+ projects. My guess is that usual 30% surge at the end isn't nearly as high as the $300k it is for this one. That is the main thing that worries me. I don't know anybody who is interested in the game that is waiting until the end to pledge, and I don't know where those people could possibly come from.

[Drakhan Valane]

Just an example.

Edit: Just so you know, I didn't find out about the Bones kickstarter until the last 10 hours or so.

[Berik]

I wouldn't necessarily compare this with Bones too much though. The funding for that really shot up towards the end as it became clear what an incredible deal it had become with all the stretch goals being reached.

I think that at the moment things are going to be pretty tight on the funding, though I hope it'll shoot up more by the end. Steve has a good suggestion I think over more items being added in to help characters starting out. Maybe there also could be certain areas that a guild could lay claim to from the start at a certain pledge level. There wouldn't be any guarantees over holding the land, but I imagine some organisations might find it fun to stake a claim already.

[Drakhan Valane]

Would you prefer Project Godus then? 500k pounds is roughly 800k USD.

[Ryan Dancey]

@Tyveil - backers are becoming very sophisticated. They wait until the end of the project so they can see all the various reward tiers, add ons, special promotions, etc. before they pledge. Over the past year, it's been very consistent - projects get a large portion of the total amount pledged at the end.

This project has a couple of odd things added on top of that. Many people don't understand (or just don't factor in) the fact that they don't actually get charged for their pledge until the project closes. So they may have spent money for Christmas and they're feeling light in the wallet, but come the 2nd week of January, they'll have disposable income again.

There are also going to be people waiting until after Christmas to pledge to see if someone did it for them as a present, or to use Christmas money to fund their pledges.

So there's all sorts of reasons to expect that January will be a big month for the project.

[Nihimon]

Or Star Citizen.

Or Shadowrun Online.

Or Ogre.

I think that, for successful projects anyway, it's fairly common for there to be a significant spike in pledges near the end. For whatever reason, I think a lot of people aren't comfortable pledging their money before they have it in the bank, so they wait until they've saved it up before they pledge.

[Drakhan Valane]

That's why you save up money in advance. I could actually afford the $10k level, but if I went for it, I wouldn't have the buffer I do. =P

[Keovar]

Except that the normal KS trends are fouled by the Daily Deal thing. Some will feel resentful that they've been excluded because they didn't find out or have disposable income soon enough. If you offer it to everyone regardless of date, some who did act quickly to increase their pledge 10+ days ago will feel like they were pushed and teased, and resent that.
We're not in well-known territory.

[htrajan]

Makes sense: what if you pledge w/o having enough money in the bank to be comfortable and then somehow you don't have enough in the end but you forget to retract the pledge? Now you're in trouble financially, so it makes sense. I would actually do the same thing.

[Nihimon]

Drakhan Valane wrote:

That's why you save up money...

The world would be a much better place if more people really embraced this simple truth.

[Berik]

Sure, a lot of projects have gotten late surges and I agree completely with all the reasons Ryan gives for why PFO will probably get a late surge too. But the statistician in me points out that individual examples of projects are fairly meaningless for prediction without actually looking into factors of both these and failed projects more widely.

I tend to think that a lot of the times the late surge is from people interested in the project (both those running and supporting it) from keeping the word out there, making sure that those people who usually back projects towards the end are aware of it near the end. The point is that it won't get enough of a late surge to get funded 'because some projects have gotten a late surge in the end'. It'll get a late surge because of the underlying hard work that the team and fans will put in, and that the teams in the linked Kickstarters put in on their own projects.

That may come across as quibbling and it's really tangental to anything that has actually been said, but it's a bit of a pet peeve of mine. Things don't happen because of trends, trends happen because of things.

[Berik]

Keovar wrote:

Except that the normal KS trends are fouled by the Daily Deal thing. Some will feel resentful that they've been excluded because they didn't find out or have disposable income soon enough. If you offer it to everyone regardless of date, some who did act quickly to increase their pledge 10+ days ago will feel like they were pushed and teased, and resent that.

We're not in well-known territory.

I think this is a very interesting point too. I think the Daily Deal is a great idea for making people back the project earlier than they otherwise would. But there does seem to be a danger that it will also put some people off at the back end of the project.

[Drakhan Valane]

I just watched Freakonomics, so I know exactly what you're talking about. I'm, however, 150% positive Mr. Dancey has a few more tricks up his sleeves to stir up the hype at the end to help that curve become reality in this case too.

[Ryan Dancey]

@Berik - one thing to keep an eye on is the difference in the number of people who have "Liked" the project on Facebook, and the number who have pledged. A lot of those "Likes" are keeping tabs on us and plan to come in near the end of the project. Right now, there's 6,154 likes, and 3,917 pledges (63%). (For the Tech demo, we ended with 5,111 Likes and 4,212 pledges - 82%)

That's just another indication that there are people waiting to the end of the project to back it.

Frankly, I don't think the Daily Deal is going to matter one way or the other. It moved some folks to pledge earlier than they otherwise would have but not a huge number. Likewise, I have a hard time seeing anyone coming in at the end of the project who begrudges early backers getting an incentive enough to make that the reason they choose not to back it. Everyone gets the fact that early adopters get some special consideration in life.

[Berik]

I think the Daily Deal would only hurt some people's bid in a psychological sense rather than it taking real value, but I doubt it will be anything but a benefit for the project as a whole. For reference I haven't backed the project yet, but missing out on the Daily Deal isn't a factor that worries me.

And I agree with you both. I fully expect to see a late surge. Looking at things as they stand I do expect it'll be tight even with a late surge, but I fully expect Ryan and Lisa to pull things out of the bag. But like I said, I'm a statistician, it's my job to be overly pedantic over how predictions are derived. :)

[leperkhaun]

@ryan

If you could include some levels between the 100 and 500 (another 500 level would be great) that were not multiple bundles or forced me to give up a character to GW id up my pledge.

Something like an enhanced players and alliance packages, or some such. Something in game.

[Deane Beman]

Tyveil wrote:

I don't understand the trending at all. Why would there be such a surge at the end? Are the stats around all projects or $1M+ projects. My guess is that usual 30% surge at the end isn't nearly as high as the $300k it is for this one. That is the main thing that worries me. I don't know anybody who is interested in the game that is waiting until the end to pledge, and I don't know where those people could possibly come from.

Two reasons for a late game surge:

1. The company pulling out all the stops with add-ons, stretch goals, and the like to both draw in new backers and encourage current backers to increase their pledge amounts; and
2. Truly dedicated backers who, fearing the goal will not be met, increasing their pledges as the clock ticks closer to zero.

[Banecrow]

Pledge early, you can always change your pledge. I originally started at the $35 level and then later decided to up it to the $100. Depending on what is added for last minute deals that is between the 100-200 range I might up again. People need to realize you do not need the money RIGHT now. Pledge early get in on things like the daily deel and just save up, you normally have a few weeks.

[htrajan]

I initially pledged $100 then upped to $175 to get a good friend of mine who's crazy about Pathfinder a Christmas present.

[Dario]

Yeah, I initially went for the $100 level, then bumped it up to $200 for the print pack add-on. When they announced the monster player pool, I jumped up to Alpha.

[Darsch]

Dario wrote:

Yeah, I initially went for the $100 level, then bumped it up to $200 for the print pack add-on. When they announced the monster player pool, I jumped up to Alpha.

Wish i had the thousand to spare, or better yet the money needed for the tavern X.x. oh well. grats on your pleadge friend. I am holding each and everyone of you alpha testers accountable for bugs making it to early enrollment :p

Htrajan i did the same thing.

on a side note just now the tickers for the kickstarter says

4,111
Backers
$500,771
pledged of $1,000,000 goal
17
days to go

[Tyveil]

Deane Beman wrote:

2. Truly dedicated backers who, fearing the goal will not be met, increasing their pledges as the clock ticks closer to zero.

This is one I didn't think about and could explain a lot about the late surge. I could see backers increasing pledges even to non-reward levels to make sure the product succeeds (and/or reaches stretch goals). I will likely be one of them.