What if the Kickstarter does not reach $1M?


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Goblin Squad Member

Mine all mine...don't touch wrote:
@ steve: who would know the kickstarter police?

Large payments would be easy to track. Nonetheless, whether you'll get caught is not necessarily the determining factor as to whether you should break the rules.

I only made the comment since I see similar "top up" suggestions made from time to time on kickstarter so I figured it might be a rule some people don't know about (if it is, in fact, a rule).

CEO, Goblinworks

@Lauraliane,

That's a great question. We considered three options - $1 (seriously, I even asked Kickstarter if they'd allow it but they didn't respond), something in the six-digit range, and the million dollars.

The thing is we can't do much in terms of acceleration with less than a million. We wanted to have a legit reason to ask for the money. We get some benefit of course for less than a million, bit it would be hard to quantify and we couldn't put a concrete benefit in the Kickstarter.

The million is something we can put a defined benefit on. It shaves a meaningful amount of time off the baseline schedule. It doesn't help just hiring a few extra people. We need groups of people in several disciplines all working together in order to really speed up the process, and those salaries and overhead add up pretty quickly.

In the end we decided we'd rather be clear about the benefit of the money, not be wispy-washy.

Scarab Sages Goblin Squad Member

Deane Beman wrote:
Keovar wrote:
I don't think they want to completely divorce the PFRPG rewards from the PFO ones. It's not just a matter of funding right now, if someone gets an account they didn't expect to want, some will try it anyway, and some will give it away (or possibly resell it).
In the end it will come down to doing whatever it takes to fully fund the Kickstarter. That is going to mean a strong appeal to the pen & paper only crowd.

You're mistaking the Kickstarter for an end in itself, ranter than a means to an end. They aren't looking to fund the life of the game with this KS, just the development of it. What's the point of funding a game without a bunch of players waiting to get in?

The minis and PDF books are a great deal at 100$, even if you ignore all the MMO stuff. If there were a pledge level that included only tabletop swag, it would likely be priced about the same.

By giving you the MMO stuff along with it, they're leaving an invitation open for you to come try the game... may as well have a look, since you have access to the the software and 4 months subscription time, right? If you're a diehard mac-only person or intrinsically opposed to trying an MMO, you could gift or resell that account access and recover your costs for the minis and PDF material.

Goblin Squad Member

From the perspective of someone interested first and foremost on the MMO itself the current offerings do seem to be on the light side from the point of view of the tangibles (in particular game time) when you take into consideration the inevitable risk of committing money upfront to a game in early development.

GW seems to be unwilling to consider offering significantly discounted game time either as part of any of the pledge levels or as a separate add on. As a result they are not really offering anything that would seem (from a pure return on investment point of view) to warrant an average MMO player to take the leap of faith right now instead of waiting and seeing how it all will eventually play out.

GW may succeed in hitting the $1,000,000 target with the chosen stategy, but they seem to be leaving a lot of money on the table by refusing to exchange potential future revenues to funds available right now which could be used to hit the window of opportunity and give the game the best possible chance to succeed. That decision may come back to haunt them.

Goblin Squad Member

@Fruben - So long as they can hit the target that allows for the sweet spot of increasing speed of delivery of the "Early Enrollment", that is all that is necessary imo. The increased speed of delivery, the early adopter community and the design are the 3 things that make me pledge for that side of the MMO - irrespective of the sweeteners on the side which are kinda very cool "full hobby experience", too. Can't wait to get the pdf-corerule book.

As said, what matters how imo is reaching that accelerated development. Once that's hit it's a different game where the value I expect WILL BE very good. Sure the risk is there, but looking at the resk of the market, I'm not seeing anything worth investing my time in (apart from EVE) which I hope to get going with in a few months once I move to my next job.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

1 person marked this as a favorite.

Man am I glad I found this page. I put my $100 in weeks ago and have been following this project like a dragonhawk. I've seen the slow improvements, and wondered the same thing. I've done everything I possibly can to get my friends hooked short of pledging for them and charging them later haha. Good to know this project is in good hands with Lisa, Ryan, and all of you guys out there that truly care for gaming....whether you're a tabletop man or an MMO enthusiast. If I could afford alpha in any way shape or form I would have done it...but my meager $100 is in there somewhere. Happy new year, gents...it'll be one to remember!

Silver Crusade Goblin Squad Member

The only thing that gives me pause is the number of backers already pledged.

The Tech Demo had 4212 backers. This current one has 4500 at the time of this post. We've already eclipsed the original in terms of users.

Are there really close to twice the backers still out there?

I have nothing but great trust in this project, and those behind it. You can smell the passion from the team on every post they write. I'm still advertising this on FB/Twitter/G+ and anywhere else it makes sense to voice my support.

Make this happen, Internet People! <3

Goblin Squad Member

Winter_Born wrote:

The only thing that gives me pause is the number of backers already pledged.

The Tech Demo had 4212 backers. This current one has 4500 at the time of this post. We've already eclipsed the original in terms of users.

Are there really close to twice the backers still out there?

While this is purely observational, the number of unique posters on the forum has gone crazy of late. 6 months ago I pretty much knew all the regular posters and recognised a lot of the names.

Nowadays, it's a much noisier place, so there has definitely seemed to be a solid increase in the amount of people interested.

Silver Crusade Goblin Squad Member

Southraven wrote:
Winter_Born wrote:

The only thing that gives me pause is the number of backers already pledged.

The Tech Demo had 4212 backers. This current one has 4500 at the time of this post. We've already eclipsed the original in terms of users.

Are there really close to twice the backers still out there?

While this is purely observational, the number of unique posters on the forum has gone crazy of late. 6 months ago I pretty much knew all the regular posters and recognised a lot of the names.

Nowadays, it's a much noisier place, so there has definitely seemed to be a solid increase in the amount of people interested.

Now we just need them to pledge. :)

Goblin Squad Member

Unique poster who had not backed the tech demo but who has already pledge to this current kick starter at the buddy level.

:waves to the group as she signs in for the first time.:

Goblin Squad Member

Welcome Diella!

Silver Crusade Goblin Squad Member

Diella wrote:

Unique poster who had not backed the tech demo but who has already pledge to this current kick starter at the buddy level.

:waves to the group as she signs in for the first time.:

Awesome! Please tell your friends!

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

My first pledge on Kickstarter... Crowdforge Pioneer.

Goblin Squad Member

Joey and I have been spreading the word, Have one friend that is interested in pathfinder likely to pledge and another who is going home tonight to give it a look over hopefully that be another.

Goblin Squad Member

stardust wrote:
My first pledge on Kickstarter... Crowdforge Pioneer.

So glad you could join us, stardust.

Reminds me of an old friend, who was very much into ziggy stardust...

Ah, memories of old friends... now I just need a comfortable fireplace and a snifter of fine brandy.


Ryan Dancey wrote:
In the end we decided we'd rather be clear about the benefit of the money, not be wispy-washy.

So what exactly is the benefit of the money?

Not in terms of rewards for the backers, but in terms of the project. What's the expected difference for PFO between getting, and not getting the $1,000,000?

Goblin Squad Member

The increase in funding will allow them to increase the number of people they can hire to work on it. Their project management projects we would get into the game a year earlier than we will otherwise.

Goblin Squad Member

Something else I don't think has been mentioned is the writing talent that has been brought to bear: I mean, just look at the depth and breadth of that talent pool. Ed Greenwood of the Forgotten Realms, Kieth Baker of Eberron, Mark Rein-Hagen of Vampire: The Masquerade, Frank Mentzer of the Temple of Elemental Evil, just to mention those whose work I am familiar with.

The creative talent arrayed toward this project tells me Goblinworks is placing the quality of storytelling at the heart of the project. The objective is to make money, but the driver is the talent.

Our investment is being applied to what we value, and where value is greater than cost we can be confident that our money is well placed.

Goblin Squad Member

jasin wrote:
Ryan Dancey wrote:
In the end we decided we'd rather be clear about the benefit of the money, not be wispy-washy.

So what exactly is the benefit of the money?

Not in terms of rewards for the backers, but in terms of the project. What's the expected difference for PFO between getting, and not getting the $1,000,000?

From the FAQ at the bottom of the KSer.

"Is the whole budget coming from this Kickstarter?
No. Most of the budget is being provided by our initial investors, but the money we're raising on Kickstarter is the difference between a 4 year development plan and a much faster, much larger plan."

Basically we are helping fund the game to get it out faster and with more features.

Silver Crusade Goblin Squad Member

I've got my coupon from my Paizo Christmas card. Too bad I can't use to pledge more!

I too would like to see another 200 dollar range solo backer reward, I think a lot of people could justify going over the 100 dollar amount but aren't really interested in owning multiple copies of the game.


Waruko wrote:

From the FAQ at the bottom of the KSer.

"Is the whole budget coming from this Kickstarter?
No. Most of the budget is being provided by our initial investors, but the money we're raising on Kickstarter is the difference between a 4 year development plan and a much faster, much larger plan."

Basically we are helping fund the game to get it out faster and with more features.

"Much faster, much larger" hardly seems "clear about the benefit of the money, not [...] wispy-washy".

Goblin Squad Member

I believe the kickstarter (if successful) will shift early enrollment to sometime in summer 2014 and open enrollment nine months after that.

Hunting down that quote now...

Goblin Squad Member

jasin wrote:
"Much faster, much larger" hardly seems "clear about the benefit of the money, not [...] wispy-washy".

I don't see it on the Kickstarter page anymore, which surprises me.

In essence, the schedule without this Kickstarter is Early 2014 for Early Enrollment, and Early 2016 for Open Enrollment. If the Kickstart succeeds, they expect to get to Early Enrollment about 6 months earlier than that, and Open Enrollment about a year earlier.

Ryan might drop in and let us know why that's no longer on the Kickstarter page.


Ryan Dancey wrote:
Kickstarter's own data says that projects which reach 30% of their goal have a 90% success rate. Large gaming Kickstarters have an exceptionally large rate of pledges near the end of their timelines. I expect ours will be no different, and I'm highly confident we'll be funded. For comparison, the Tech Demo earned 2/3rds of its pledges in its final 8 days, and 1/3rd in the final 24 hours.

Hi, longtime lurker here, but I really did feel the need to jump in at this point, because it seems like both of those statistics don't necessarily mean what you are suggesting.

First, the 30%/90% statistic sounds an awful lot like, for lack of a better term, a sports statistic. All it really means is that most of the Kickstarters that fail, fail hard, and it doesn't tell us anything about the world of Kickstarter projects like this one. And in fact, the other half of that statistic is that 11% of projects that fail, never receive a single pledge. Unlike Goblinworks, these are inevitably projects that aren't successfully able to promote their ideas. This hardly means that the PFO project's success is inevitable, though, it just means that it's not in the realm of projects that fail because of insufficient promotion or an extremely flawed project premise.

Then, there's the fact that most of the Tech Demo's pledges occurred in the last week of that Kickstarter. As you say, it earned 2/3rds of its pledges in the last 8 days. However, it reached full funding on Day 2, and those pledges all happened long after the project was fully-funded. In other words, what you're describing is a bandwagon effect where new pledges were drawn to a project that was already fully-funded and more or less guaranteed to hit its goal fully-funded.

And honestly, when discussing the other Kickstarters that have seen a massive swell of support, and reached that 1 million mark (such as the Order of the Stick Reprint, or Amanda Palmer's album and tour, or the Homestuck video game, just off the top of my head), they tend to have this in common: they set a much lower, attainable goal, reach that goal very early on, and continued to pour on support long afterwards as that success generates even more interest. I've seen little to suggest that many of these projects end up limping across that finish line in the last week.

Honestly, a vastly more useful statistic here would be how many big-dollar projects end up succeeding when they are at 55% funding with a week remaining. I don't know the answer, but it would be much more informative.

Goblin Squad Member

yrogerg wrote:
... they tend to have this in common: they set a much lower, attainable goal, reach that goal very early on...

Looking at the Kicktraq Hotlist, Elite: Dangerous stands out because it just barely made it's funding in the last few days, and it's for over $1,000,000. With three days to go, they still hadn't made it, but then they got a big bump. Keep an eye on it for the next couple of days.

yrogerg wrote:
This hardly means that the PFO project's success is inevitable...

I don't think there's anyone who really thinks that this Kickstarter will "inevitably" succeed. Although, certainly many of us are looking for positive data points to counter what we see as "doom & gloom" from those who appear to believe it will "inevitably" fail.


Nihimon wrote:
yrogerg wrote:
... they tend to have this in common: they set a much lower, attainable goal, reach that goal very early on...

Looking at the Kicktraq Hotlist, Elite: Dangerous stands out because it just barely made it's funding in the last few days, and it's for over $1,000,000. With three days to go, they still hadn't made it, but then they got a big bump. Keep an eye on it for the next couple of days.

Hmm, yes, that definitely is an interesting one. It still seems more the exception than the rule, but I definitely appreciate more data points, especially in the form of learning about awesome game projects people are working on. I'm not going to say that £1 million isn't an unbelievably ambitious funding goal either, but it also looks like it was just a one day that outperformed the average that got them there. Which, I suppose, is somewhat reassuring.

Nihimon wrote:
yrogerg wrote:
This hardly means that the PFO project's success is inevitable...
I don't think there's anyone who really thinks that this Kickstarter will "inevitably" succeed. Although, certainly many of us are looking for positive data points to counter what we see as "doom & gloom" from those who appear to believe it will "inevitably" fail.

Maybe not, but I've definitely seen a few variations of "I'm confident this will succeed, because 90% of Kickstarters that reach at least 30% of et cetera." Which might be silver linings and false bravado, but is certainly lousy statistics.

The world we're in right now is one where there are 11 days left and 45% of goal still to fund. I don't really know what that landscape actually looks like with certainty, especially for high-dollar goals (which are themselves the overwhelming exception), but talking about some guy's $7k kickstarter that never got a single pledge isn't really informative, nor talking about the surge of late funding that took someone from 200% of goal to 250%.

Goblin Squad Member

Do bear in mind that the elite kickstarter also got covered on the BBC news and a famous Irish comedian reached out to his 1.2M followers on Twitter, so it might not be a fair comparison.

Goblin Squad Member

yrogerg wrote:
It still seems more the exception than the rule...

Looking around, it seems like $1,000,000 Kickstarters are more the exception than the rule :)

yrogerg wrote:
... but it also looks like it was just a one day that outperformed the average that got them there...

That "one day" was yesterday, and they've already got a lot of action today, too.

Goblin Squad Member

Funded projects always have a lot of people backing if there is time left I have noticed. I guess people don't want the risk of faliure.


Nihimon wrote:


Looking around, it seems like $1,000,000 Kickstarters are more the exception than the rule :)

As I mentioned, yes they are. Heck, even the high-six-figure KS's are -while more common now- largely an exception. And Kickstarters that start out asking for $1 million plus are an exception within that exception. Most of the ones that get there were asking for far far less, and end up getting there because of publicity and bandwagon effects after they reach 100%.


echilda wrote:
Funded projects always have a lot of people backing if there is time left I have noticed. I guess people don't want the risk of faliure.

That's part of it, I think. Though a bit irrational, since "failure" means there was no risk, and costs you nothing except your hopes and dreams. I think the another part is that "this cool idea is funded!" is itself publicity-generating, and brings in new pledges.

There might also be some segment of supporters that back in response to that enthusiasm, on the logic that if the project has a significantly larger pot of money than they were asking for already, they're more likely to be able to deliver on their promises than someone who just barely makes it to their own cost estimates for a project.

Scarab Sages Goblinworks Executive Founder

Nihimon wrote:
jasin wrote:
"Much faster, much larger" hardly seems "clear about the benefit of the money, not [...] wispy-washy".

I don't see it on the Kickstarter page anymore, which surprises me.

In essence, the schedule without this Kickstarter is Early 2014 for Early Enrollment, and Early 2016 for Open Enrollment. If the Kickstart succeeds, they expect to get to Early Enrollment about 6 months earlier than that, and Open Enrollment about a year earlier.

Ryan might drop in and let us know why that's no longer on the Kickstarter page.

There used to be a graphic for this, but it seems to have disappeared.

Goblin Squad Member

I'm curious to what degree the holidays might have had an effect.

- Most people don't have alot of extra disposable income this time of year as they are spending alot on other peoples gifts.

- A Kickstarter pledge makes a kinda strange gift as you are left in a pretty awkward position if it doesn't get funded.

- There are simply alot of other things vying for peoples attentions this time of year. Even if we forget gaming, people have been shopping, traveling to visit freinds and relatives. Going to see new movies opening up or other things specificaly timed for the holiday season. I think it's simply a bit harder to get peoples attention this time of year.

Anyways, it'll be intersting to see if things pick up now that the holidays are over. Nothing like an armchair quarterback but I have to wonder if they might have been better off waiting a month or two before trying this?

Goblin Squad Member

Remember Elite is in British Pounds not USD, which is a far more expensive currency, so in USD it is nearly 2 million USD, and it is not such a fancy game compared to PFO. I believe the numbers are from the old generation that grew up with Elite, and want to see how the company succeeds in improving the graphics, not the game mechanics as that is well tested and stood the passage of time.

I really hope PFO will make their mark to ACCELERATE the development of the game and release it EARLIER than current committed funds allow.

CEO, Goblinworks

Without the Kickstarter, our plan is to begin Early Enrollment in early 2015, and Release in early 2017.

With the Kickstarter at $1 million, we plan to begin Early Enrollment in the summer of 2014, and Release in early 2016.

Goblin Squad Member

Nihimon wrote:
yrogerg wrote:
... they tend to have this in common: they set a much lower, attainable goal, reach that goal very early on...

Looking at the Kicktraq Hotlist, Elite: Dangerous stands out because it just barely made it's funding in the last few days, and it's for over $1,000,000. With three days to go, they still hadn't made it, but then they got a big bump. Keep an eye on it for the next couple of days.

yrogerg wrote:
This hardly means that the PFO project's success is inevitable...
I don't think there's anyone who really thinks that this Kickstarter will "inevitably" succeed. Although, certainly many of us are looking for positive data points to counter what we see as "doom & gloom" from those who appear to believe it will "inevitably" fail.

Yeah, I've seen it mostly being used as a statistic to counter what many people are posting from Kicktraq and their gut-feelings, which are both largely based on linear projections.

Being interested in economics, statistics, and anthropology, I understand that statistics can be incredibly misleading and almost useless except in mathematics, but for those that don't, I want them to see that there is 'evidence' that supports the kickstarter making it's goal. It is not 'doomed to failure' as some were saying when we were not even half-way through; there is still time =) I find this important because, as you acknowledged, a lot of people like throwing in their financial support to something that is 'succeeding'

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

I have chipped in with the kickstarter. My kids should just be old enough to starting playing when it comes out ;-)

Goblin Squad Member

Ryan Dancey wrote:

Without the Kickstarter, our plan is to begin Early Enrollment in early 2015, and Release in early 2017.

With the Kickstarter at $1 million, we plan to begin Early Enrollment in the summer of 2014, and Release in early 2016.

Nihimon wrote:
In essence, the schedule without this Kickstarter is Early 2014 for Early Enrollment, and Early 2016 for Open Enrollment. If the Kickstart succeeds, they expect to get to Early Enrollment about 6 months earlier than that, and Open Enrollment about a year earlier.

I believe that's what you call "wishful thinking" :)

Scarab Sages Goblinworks Executive Founder

Ryan Dancey wrote:

Without the Kickstarter, our plan is to begin Early Enrollment in early 2015, and Release in early 2017.

With the Kickstarter at $1 million, we plan to begin Early Enrollment in the summer of 2014, and Release in early 2016.

Just out of curiousity *if* somehow there was a huge funding push and you got and extra $1mill, would that potentially start early enrollment in summer 2013? :)

As for a more serious question though, where does Alpha fit into all that? IE is alpha a month before early enrollment, 6 months, a year? Think that would give a lot more perspective to other potential alpha backers.

Goblin Squad Member

It is challenging to be strict with one's own wishes.

Goblin Squad Member

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

Goblin Squad Member

3 people marked this as a favorite.
leperkhaun wrote:

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

Son... time for your chores.

But Daaaad, I don't wanna be a healbot.


There are quite a few interesting Kickstarter projects going on right now, Razor Coast for example, and so we have to manage our funds accordingly.

Regards,
Ruemere

Goblin Squad Member

Dakcenturi wrote:
Just out of curiousity *if* somehow there was a huge funding push and you got and extra $1mill, would that potentially start early enrollment in summer 2013? :)

Ryan has stated before that there's a limit to how much benefit they can get by scaling up personnel. I don't think they expect to be able to speed up the schedule any more than they've announced.


Dario wrote:
leperkhaun wrote:

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

Son... time for your chores.

But Daaaad, I don't wanna be a healbot.

lmao


leperkhaun wrote:

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

thanks for the much needed laugh my friend.

Goblin Squad Member

Here are several examples that only reached their funding goal near the end after getting a big spike.

CLANG

Defense Grid 2

Hero-U: Rogue to Redemption

Make Leisure Suit Larry come again!

Republique by Camouflaj + Logan

Shadowrun Online


leperkhaun wrote:

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

Heh. My brother pays my ten-year-old niece to fish for him in WoW. The kid LOVES her WoW time!

On a serious note, I hope that, if the Kickstarter fails, those of us who have pledged still have the ability to join Early Enrollment. I've gone from never having played Pathfinder a month ago, to being extremely excited about PFO, and I'd hate to miss out!

Goblin Squad Member

Nihimon wrote:
Dakcenturi wrote:
Just out of curiousity *if* somehow there was a huge funding push and you got and extra $1mill, would that potentially start early enrollment in summer 2013? :)
Ryan has stated before that there's a limit to how much benefit they can get by scaling up personnel. I don't think they expect to be able to speed up the schedule any more than they've announced.

I'm fairly certain that Ryan has made comments that the $1 million was just a good, recognizable goal, and that additional money would be able to shrink development time. However, I wouldn't suggest that any amount of additional funds would be able to speed up development by more than a couple of months. Also, I would expect them to release the game at the most opportune time, rather than based on how quickly they could produce it; in this case, extra money would likely go into further polish or systems implementation pre-release.


Chiassa wrote:
leperkhaun wrote:

@darius

i didnt even think about that. I could have my son follow me around and press heal when i tell him.......

Heh. My brother pays my ten-year-old niece to fish for him in WoW. The kid LOVES her WoW time!

On a serious note, I hope that, if the Kickstarter fails, those of us who have pledged still have the ability to join Early Enrollment. I've gone from never having played Pathfinder a month ago, to being extremely excited about PFO, and I'd hate to miss out!

i do feel they should elaborate on how they would do early enrollment if the KS fails. there should be some talk of contingency plans, there never was any further said of the stretch goals that was mentioned in the start. all i remember reading is hey, we have some stretch goals in mind and we will discuss them as we reach them. would be nice to know what they are, maybe get more people on board that way. wish they could extend the kick starter by two months, that way i ahd some extra cash and could buy my tavern.

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