I think reading up on the changes to spellcasting is probably the biggest hurdle I have when it comes to trying PF2E, and I wonder what the community thinks about it.
Vancian casting is already very clunky and hard to work with (Schrodinger's Wizard aside) and PF seems to have tripled-down on that.
Simply put, upcasting spells for things like damage is pretty much always a bad idea, yes? A 6th level spell cast in a 6th level slot is always better than a 2nd level spell cast in a 6th level slot.
The one exception to this is spells that *must* be upcast to be effective - Dispel Magic and the like... But how on earth are you supposed to prepare upcast utility spells with anything even remotely resembling success? If you want to beat your foe's illusions or enchantments or whatever... it's just a crapshoot where you pray you prepped it high enough? Or you're required to put those spells as your Signature Spell (or other similar class ability), yes?
Maybe errata has softened things since last I looked, but it seems like spellcasting is just a mathematical nightmare (too many choices, too many possibilities to have to plan for, etc).
How does one deal with this? Or how is it not as bad a problem as it seems?
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I domt think you're going to like the answer much, but you guess.
You prepare spells that you think will be frequently useful, modified by any specific knowledge you have about where you're going. If you're going to prepare dispel magic, you do it at a high level. And you keep some scrolls of very niche spells so that you don't waste a slot on preparing them when you don't have reason to think they'll be relevant.
Sometimes you will be wrong and not have the spell that would have been best for the situation.
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As a prepared caster, you basically never prepare Dispel Magic at less than your max spell level, as the circumstances under which lower level versions will be useful are pretty niche. As a spontaneous caster, it is indeed a very good choice as one Signature Spell. The same is generally true of other Counteract effects, though as a prepared caster, you usually just wait until the next day to use most of those (or, as a Cleric, use them spontaneously with Channeled Succor).
But beyond counteract effects, which are a tiny subset of spells, I'm not sure what your question is, really.
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HammerJack has the right of it mostly. You can try to work with your GM and use context clues based on where you're going to make more educated guesses about what you need to prepare, but that's the best you can do.
For classes with Signature Spells, trying to select a variety of effects (or a variety of saves to targets) for your signature spells can help diversify your options and give you more tools to work with.
For a Wizard, the Spell Substitution thesis can help with utility spells, but it won't really help you in a fight if you suddenly need a Dispel you didn't prepare.
But other than that all you can do is kind of work with the knowledge provided to you ahead of time.
This is one of the main reasons classes like Wizards are never as good as the forums try to pretend they are (because in the theorycrafting threads they're always targeting the monster's weakest save and always have the right utility spell prepared, of course).
Depends a little what the adventure throws at you.
IF and thats a big IF you are not constantly outleveled by your opponents you can try to put the utility spells one level below your maximum spell level, at least that is what I do. It does not matter if you dispel a spell level 3 effect with a spell level 2 or 3 dispel, as you will need to roll a success on your counteract check anyway.
The difference being that a level 3 dispel can dispel level 4 effects on a normal success, whereas the level 2 dispel only can on a critical success.
So far the theory.
In reality our current AP throws higher level effects at our party almost exclusively and without warning, however I simply refuse to play this game.
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Generally, you can play your character over a few in-game days to find out what's commonly useful. Be pro-active about researching where you're going, making knowledge checks, or communicating with your party and you'll often find you can make a very effective list.
Supplement your spell slots with potions, scrolls, wands, staves, and other items that could come in handy. Don't forget that part of PF2's design is that a spellcaster's slots aren't supposed to be the answer to every problem.
As for me, I prioritize spells that fulfill my role within the group. No one wants me to spread too thin to half-assedly fail to cover everyone else's roles. Am I going to be dealing damage, manipulating the battlefield, or solving out-of-combat problems?
Low level slots get filled with spells that are generally useful without heightening.
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While Mind Reading specifically isn't helpful, other forms of Divination may be. Depending on the Adventure in question, scouting ahead via Clairvoyance/Prying Eye may be an option, and Commune is always a good ritual to try given time and resources. Talk to your DM about what he'll allow you to gain from these strategies.
Beyond that, scrolls and consumables are more affordable than they appear at first, and not just for utility stuff. Because you now get to use your stats for spells cast from scrolls, they're super viable for offensive magic.
Beyond that, part of the challenge of playing a Wizard/Cleric is attempting to be Batman and whip out the can of Shark Repellant at just the right moment.
I was kindof hesitant to try Calm Emotions on my Cleric, but then later that day we came through a door, found a few enemies in a group, and I won initiative. Boom, three bad guys unable to take hostile actions against us as we politely talked them down. Encounter won because I had the right spell.
It felt great. But part of that is because it won't happen every session, and that makes it precious.
Wizards have to do their research. Gandalf doesn't know what the ring is when he first encounters it. He has to take his time to figure it out. In play, because you don't want your character to sit in a library while the rest of the party carries the ring to Rivendale, it can mean using divination magic, my favorite school, asking around town/using enchantment spells against much lower level targets to learn more about the more intense challenges ahead, and out of game, it can mean being sure to talk to your Gm about how you want to make finding out what challenges lie ahead to be a fun part of the game for everyone and not a competition between you as a player and them as a GM about who can "win" the encounter before it happens.
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To be honest? I usually have a staple prepared spell list that is useful on all occasions and change a few spells depending on where the adventure is going, like taking out fireballs if the group is going to a volcano and replacing with cold spells or resist energy and so on.
Have a staff with spells that you like so you don't have to prepare them.
Put powerful but niche spells on scrolls, like Wall of Wind and Glitterdust.
While Mind Reading specifically isn't helpful, other forms of Divination may be. Depending on the Adventure in question, scouting ahead via Clairvoyance/Prying Eye may be an option, and Commune is always a good ritual to try given time and resources. Talk to your DM about what he'll allow you to gain from these strategies.
Beyond that, scrolls and consumables are more affordable than they appear at first, and not just for utility stuff. Because you now get to use your stats for spells cast from scrolls, they're super viable for offensive magic.
Beyond that, part of the challenge of playing a Wizard/Cleric is attempting to be Batman and whip out the can of Shark Repellant at just the right moment.
I was kindof hesitant to try Calm Emotions on my Cleric, but then later that day we came through a door, found a few enemies in a group, and I won initiative. Boom, three bad guys unable to take hostile actions against us as we politely talked them down. Encounter won because I had the right spell.
It felt great. But part of that is because it won't happen every session, and that makes it precious.
This right here. Wizards make their living based on being prepared (clerics too) as opposed to sorcerers and bards who kinda make it up as they go. The difference is that your prepared casters can, in theory, have access to every spell on any given day (you won't as a practical matter, but you get the idea).
A lot of time you will have some context to give you a clue as to what you'll be facing. "Tomorrow we raid the Fire Giant lair!" In that case, assuming somebody in your group knows about fire giants, you know that preparing a bunch of fire damage spells is probably not a great idea. Similarly, if you are going to be traveling through a packed city, large, damaging aoe spells are probably not a great idea. Etc., etc. Other times, as mentioned, you have to rely on divination spells. And sometimes you just have to guess and hope that you are correct.
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There is the usual challenge with wizards that you are less intelligent than your PC is, so you must compensate with longer prep time or make worse choices than they would.
Covering a broad range of challenges and targeting a range of saves is core. Then adjusting for expected threats; and giving your PC as much flexibility as possible. Also noting heightened spells scale better than 1E.
As many have stated, scrolls are best used for utility spells. This is especially true for spells that are seldom needed, but crucial to have in the right circumstances (like stone to flesh).
You have also 2 alternate ways to prepare spells for Spell Blenders and Spell Substituers.
Spell Blenders don't care much of low level spells, they only focus on the 10-11 high level spells they have. So, it's less about forecasting what will happen than unleashing a whole load of high level spells on enemies.
Spell Substituers prepare a very small combat spell list and a lot of utility spells and niche spells. After every combat, they substitute their situational spells for the combat spells they used. They can do that while regaining Focus Points, so it should not impact much the time taken after combat. So they prepare nearly everything and should have the right spell for the job most of the time (at least, at the beginning of the adventuring day).
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Playing a wizard is educated guessing. "Am I going to use this spell now or will I need it later?" is a puzzle you have to solve again and again.
You gotta enjoy that sort of thing, otherwise wizard isn't the sort of caster you'll enjoy playing. Oddly, considering their reputation as the solid methodical caster, in a way, playing a wizard is more of a betting game than some other casters.
Not sure how your table operates, but, at my table, I typically have downtime before each mission to allow the players to learn some information, earn income, and other forms of preparation before the quest.
Generally, I ask that prepared casters bring a "default" spell list, that, after gathering intel, they can tweak based on what they learned. This keeps the spell prep step fairly short while still allowing the players to actually change their spells in response to intel they've gathered.
If you have rituals in your game, one trick I used in 1e was simply casting Commune and playing 20 questions with the DM. Now that commune is a 1 day ritual, and only provides 7 answers, it's not as exploitable, but still very helpful