Friendly Rogue |
After the news that the Sorcerer got to pick and choose whichever spell list it had access to based on their bloodline, and the fact that the Bard is now the official, 10th level, Occult caster for the core rulebook (with less spell slots and spells per day than the Sorcerer), I figured that it would be fun to predict which future classes would get which spell lists, in what capacity, and in some cases how they would be differentiated from the Sorcerer. Let me know what you think!
- Witches will be a prepared Occult spellcaster, with no reduction in their spells per day/spells known. Their choice in Patron will determine what bonus spells they get, like with Sorcerer bloodlines, and their hexes will operate similarly as the Bard's performances, with their lower level ones acting as cantrips.
- Oracles will be spontaneous Divine spellcasters, but will primarily be differentiated from the Sorcerer by their proficiencies and their Mysteries. Mystery abilities will be powered off of Spell Points, and I predict that Curses will remain mostly unchanged.
- Inquisitors will be spontaneous Divine spellcasters, with reduced spells similarly to the Bard. There will be more emphasis on the effects of their Judgements, while their Inquisitions will have a more mundane focus on their proficiencies, skills, etc., not unlike that of P1e's Inquisitions.
- Magi are a bit more up in the air - if they're reintroduced into P2e as a full class, I predict that they will be a prepared Arcane caster, but similarly to the Bard, will have reduced spells per day. Most of their class abilities will focus on applying magical affects to their weapons and increasing the power of offensive cantrips. This being said, I could definitely be wrong, and it's likely that they could rely more on spell points.
- Summoners will be spontaneous casters, with reduced spells like the Bard. Their choice of eidolon will determine which spell list they have access to, and they will have class feats that focus on improving their eidolon or otherwise boosting the effectiveness of their conjuration spells.
- Arcanists will be spontaneous Arcane spellcasters, casting off of Intelligence. They will have access to a spellbook to change what spells they can cast each day, and their class feats will center around exploits.
- Hunters will be spontaneous Primal spellcasters, similarly to the Bard. Their class feats and abilities will center around their animal companions.
- Bloodragers will not get spellcasting - instead, they will rely on Spell Points, similarly to the Monk/Paladin, and the powers they can use with their Spell Points will be determined by their bloodline.
- Shamans will be reintroduced as a new Material/Spiritual spellcaster, likely still prepared and still full 10th level. Spirits will provide access to spells in other spell lists, and otherwise will act similarly to a Witch in regards to hexes.
- Skalds, if they're reintroduced, will operate very similarly to the Bard, but will have a heavier focus on combat.
- Warpriests will be prepared Divine spellcasters with reduced spells per day, bridging the gap between Clerics and the now-spell-less Paladins. I figure that there will be more of a focus on reducing the time needed to cast spells.
- The Psychic classes will operate on their own spellcasting system, but otherwise will continue to use the four spell lists that we know. Psychics will be full spontaneous Occult spellcasters, gaining extra spells from other lists via their Disciplines, while Mesmerists will be very similar to the Bard in terms of spellcasting, albeit focusing on debuffing rather than buffing.
- Spiritualists will be the psychic analogue to the Summoner, but it's hard to see them with anything other than the Occult spell list, if they're not just folded into the Summoner to begin with.
- Mediums will continue to be the absolutely wild Jack of All Trades that they are, but their spellcasting will be more streamlined, with their active spirit determining which spell list they will cast from, if any.
- Occultists will lose access to spellcasting, but will become an occult analogue to the Alchemist, with a large focus on creating trinkets on the spot, similarly to the Alchemist with alchemical items.
- Kineticists are also a wild card - if they do not gain some form of casting, some of their abilities will likely be heavily based off of the Spell Points system, while they gain some cantrips based on their chosen element; in this scenario, Kinetic Blasts will remain semi-similar to the P1e interpretation. If they do gain spellcasting, it will likely be spontaneously like the bard, and off of the Primal spell list, albeit their spell choices will be limited by their element; in this scenario, Kinetic Blasts are relegated to Kineticist-exclusive cantrips.
Again, these are all just predictions, so I could either be really on the spot or extremely off the mark, so tell me what you think.
Stone Dog |
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I think we are going to be seeing three basic types of casting classes.
The first are classes largely locked to one spell list. We know about these already. Wizards (Arc), Clerics (Div), Bards (Occ), and Druids (Pri). Differentiation will be by style; school for Wizards, religions for Clerics, muses for Bards, and orders for Druids.
The second are classes that might be based off of primary attributes instead of spell lists. Sorcerers (Cha), Oracles (Wis), and Witches (Int). These will have a greater variety of spell types; Bloodlines, Mysteries and Patrons will all have different lists assigned to them. I am hoping that their spell slots will be more limited, but bloodline powers, revelations, and hexes will be the main draw there.
The third could be spell-less classes that have themed powers instead. The Paladin and any future Exemplar style classes are going to be the poster children for this. Hunters, Inquisitors, and Magi among others could all be very well served by this sort of thing. They are still magical, but under the new paradigm might not need to be actual spell casters.
Not to say that some of them couldn't be one of the other two options. An inquisitor could well be an ability style spell caster augmented by Judgement powers, for example.
A forth, pseudo-magical class type would be people who use mundane skills to produce supernatural effects. The Alchemist is the first example we've really seen about this, but I'm starting to think the Occultist might slot in nicely too. Where the Alchemist is ... well... Alchemy, the Occultist is said to be the master of Resonance and might well be the master of Ritual Magic as well. Zero spells, but the ability to draw out more from magical items and ceremonies than any other class.
Friendly Rogue |
I think we are going to be seeing three basic types of casting classes.
The first are classes largely locked to one spell list. We know about these already. Wizards (Arc), Clerics (Div), Bards (Occ), and Druids (Pri). Differentiation will be by style; school for Wizards, religions for Clerics, muses for Bards, and orders for Druids.
The second are classes that might be based off of primary attributes instead of spell lists. Sorcerers (Cha), Oracles (Wis), and Witches (Int). These will have a greater variety of spell types; Bloodlines, Mysteries and Patrons will all have different lists assigned to them. I am hoping that their spell slots will be more limited, but bloodline powers, revelations, and hexes will be the main draw there.
The third could be spell-less classes that have themed powers instead. The Paladin and any future Exemplar style classes are going to be the poster children for this. Hunters, Inquisitors, and Magi among others could all be very well served by this sort of thing. They are still magical, but under the new paradigm might not need to be actual spell casters.
Not to say that some of them couldn't be one of the other two options. An inquisitor could well be an ability style spell caster augmented by Judgement powers, for example.A forth, pseudo-magical class type would be people who use mundane skills to produce supernatural effects. The Alchemist is the first example we've really seen about this, but I'm starting to think the Occultist might slot in nicely too. Where the Alchemist is ... well... Alchemy, the Occultist is said to be the master of Resonance and might well be the master of Ritual Magic as well. Zero spells, but the ability to draw out more from magical items and ceremonies than any other class.
It'd take me a while to get used to Oracles being Wisdom based instead of Charisma based like they were in P1e, assuming that's the direction they take, but I definitely like the idea of attribute casters! It would give Draconic Oracles more precedence if they got Arcane casting, and it could also open up the door to Witch patrons being more open, such as Draconic Witch patrons that grant arcane casting.
I'd also like to see more about the potential of new spell lists being added in the future. Based off of the current paradigm of Mental, Vital, Spiritual, and Material, there's still room for two combinations that currently aren't being used; Mental + Vital, and Material + Spiritual. I reckon that the Shaman will be the spell-list based caster of Material + Spiritual spell list (perhaps the Soulful Spell List?), leaving an open slot for a new spellcaster for a Mental + Vital spellcaster.
Stone Dog |
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I think that it is likely that Oracle will stay Charisma, but it might not be necessary considering how the Sorcerer is turning out.
I'm pretty sure that the Me+Vi caster is going to be the Psychic and the Shaman/Summoner will be Ma+Sp. What Ma+Sp is going to be called has been puzzling me, though.
I made a post about the subject in the thread about the Four Essences. I'll spoiler block it here.
The primary casters in PF2 are going to be what could be described as Hybrids, but there could be room for Pure casters in the future. "Semi" casters could map roughly to classes like Paladins who have supernatural powers derived from a theme of a Tradition, but not spell slots.
What do we have confirmed so far...
Ma + Me = Arcane
Sp + Vi = Divine
Me + Sp = Occult
We know we have Primal coming up, but has it been fully revealed?
Ma + Vi = Primal? Almost certainly Vital magic due to the connection with the First World.
Ma + Sp = ??? I could see Shamans here, a spiritual guide with worldly concerns.
Me + Vi = Psychic? Mind over Matter has already been mentioned in this thread. Biokinetic powers have often been a thing with Psychics.
Then we have potential Pure casters. Not as many spell options, but maybe a bit more in the way of powers?
Ma = Kineticists?
Me = Mesmerists?
Sp = Spiritualists?
Vi = __________ ?
Friendly Rogue |
I dunno, Psychics don't really come off as they would be Mental and Vital - in the Spells blog post, the essences are Material (building blocks of physical things), Mental (building blocks of rational thoughts, logic, and memories), Spiritual (building blocks of the immortal self, presumably the soul), and Vital (the building blocks of life force, instincts, and intuition); while Mental definitely fits the bill for the Psychic, Vitality does so a whole lot less, because it's pretty heavily implied that's where a bulk of the healing spells are, and Psychics have never really been associated with healing. I'd actually sooner give Psychics the Arcane spell list, or potentially the Occult spell list, because those are more distanced from explicit healing capability.
I do think that the Material + Spiritual spell list would probably be called something of the lines of Soulful, because it would be a combination of the spiritual aspects and physical aspects of life, much like how souls are the ultimate building block of the planes. I'm actually having a hard time pinning a name on what a Mental + Vital spell list would be called.
Gorignak227 |
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I think that it is likely that Oracle will stay Charisma, but it might not be necessary considering how the Sorcerer is turning out.
As a player of dwarves and hater of prepared casting i really wish there were a few more spontaneous casting classes/options that didn't use charisma. I still can't believe there isn't a spontaneous druid option yet.
Friendly Rogue |
Stone Dog wrote:I think that it is likely that Oracle will stay Charisma, but it might not be necessary considering how the Sorcerer is turning out.As a player of dwarves and hater of prepared casting i really wish there were a few more spontaneous casting classes/options that didn't use charisma. I still can't believe there isn't a spontaneous druid option yet.
Hunters are a pretty close approximation to a spontaneous druid - they cast off of both the Druid and Ranger spell lists (which are pretty similar to say the least) and they cast spontaneously off of Wisdom, with the same progression as a Bard. They're similar to Inquisitors in a lot of ways.
Friendly Rogue |
Psychics in D&D/Pathfinder also have a healthy tradition of biokinesis or psychometabolism. Psychics being the Mind of Matter including the matter of the self.
Alright, when you put it that way it seems a lot more plausible. It would also help distance the psychic casters from being explicitly occult, too, which I know some of my players would appreciate if that were the case.
Deadmanwalking |
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The four spell lists all have a linked skill. That being the case, combined with a set skill list, I'd be very surprised if we get any other spell lists.
Vital lists also all use Wisdom for casting and have Wis based skills, while Mental ones use Intelligence and have Int based skills (the latter is speculative but very likely), while both can have Cha based spontaneous casters. Structurally this means there's almost certainly never gonna be a list without one, and only one, of Mental or Vital. So that just reconfirms the 'only 4 lists' thing.
Doktor Weasel |
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The four spell lists all have a linked skill. That being the case, combined with a set skill list, I'd be very surprised if we get any other spell lists.
Vital lists also all use Wisdom for casting and have Wis based skills, while Mental ones use Intelligence and have Int based skills (the latter is speculative but very likely), while both can have Cha based spontaneous casters. Structurally this means there's almost certainly never gonna be a list without one, and only one, of Mental or Vital. So that just reconfirms the 'only 4 lists' thing.
Just four lists seems rather limiting. The lore around essences already gives space for at least 6. It seems strange to only have 4 and not flesh out the other two that are implied by the essences. I can see not getting into them in core, but later that's just obvious space to expand into. Plus there is the fact that not all of the PF1 classes really fit in the four lists. Should a bard and psychic have the same list? In my mind, no. There might be overlap but they're distinct. The list for the psychic should be a separate Psychic list (probably mental/vital). For that matter should a witch have the same list as a bard? Maybe, but I'm not convinced. variable list based on patron does make some sense, but I'm still not sure. And a material/spiritual list for Shamans makes a lot of sense to me, more than just giving them divine or primal (shamanic seems like a good enough name for that list as anything), that might be a fit for the witch as well.
I do appreciate the design goal of keeping a small number of lists and not having a new one for each class, but I think 4 just isn't enough. Especially since 4 and 6 level casting seems to be gone. And I see the point about linked skills, but that strikes me more as a flaw with linking all spell lists to one and only one skill than it does with expanding the lists.
Another option that I've expressed elsewhere is for some classes to possibly take from two lists, but be limited by the schools. A summoner getting occult and arcane conjuration, abjuration and transmutation for example.
I also like Stone Dog's idea of single essence classes, which I see as not having traditional spell-casting but instead strong powers linked to their essence. Kineticists certainly fit the bill of a pure material class, they're the masters of the physical elements. Pure vital seems to be the space for the Shifter. Mesmerists as pure mental and Spiritualists as pure spiritual also fit well, but in my vision have powers instead of the spell slots they have in PF1.
And then there is the question of what a mix of 3 essences would be? I'm thinking possibly limited to the gods. While all four would be something that maybe only the god of magic has mastery of. Or 3 essences are for demi-gods and equivalents like demon lords, while all 4 for the full gods.
QuidEst |
Witches will be a prepared Occult spellcaster, with no reduction in their spells per day/spells known. Their choice in Patron will determine what bonus spells they get, like with Sorcerer bloodlines, and their hexes will operate similarly as the Bard's performances, with their lower level ones acting as cantrips.
I think Witches will have a reduction in spells per day (as compared to a Wizard with bonus spells). Spells known isn't really relevant to them. In PF1, Witch had fewer spells than Wizard. Sitting in a new book, I expect hexes to be a special type of cantrip that carries the same restrictions as before (only castable once per person per day) and generally takes two actions to cast (except Cackle). The limitations lets them be a bit more powerful than even Bard's special cantrips.
It will be weird, because divine vs. arcane list is intended to not be a balancing point, and I don't know how much room there is for something like a battle mystery.Summoners will be spontaneous casters, with reduced spells like the Bard. Their choice of eidolon will determine which spell list they have access to, and they will have class feats that focus on improving their eidolon or otherwise boosting the effectiveness of their conjuration spells.
I'm nervous about Summoner. Animal companions seem to have had their customization cut to "make a binary choice at level 14". I can't see there being room on a full caster for an interesting eidolon, but if they're spell point casters, you spend your free choice features picking things like "heal my eidolon". I really don't expect them to have access to all the lists like Sorcerer, though. A Summoner shouldn't be turning into a T-rex.
Dasrak |
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Witch: I can definitely see the witch choosing spell list based on patron. It just fits too perfectly to be otherwise.
Oracle: I could see these guys getting the same "you pick" treatment via mysteries, even if the default feels divine. Many mysteries have a very strong primal or occult flavor. Still wouldn't be surprised if they were just divine.
Inquisitor: very definitely divine.
Magus: while I might be jumping the gun a bit, I'm actually going to predict that Magus will be one of the classes that will see a complete overhaul when it comes. It's a popular and iconic class so I know it will be back, but it had a very specific niche in PF1 and the rules changes in PF2 have largely rendered that niche irrelevant. The change to the action economy has made spell combat largely obsolete, since anyone can now perform a cast/attack combo without special class features. Given the fact that BAB and spell list differences are a thing of the past, a straight port of the Magus has very little to distinguish itself from the wizard. If it does come back as a stand-alone class, I predict it will see a major overhaul.
Summoner: kinda afraid of how this guy will turn out, because I really disliked the direction of the unchained summoner. In any case, I could see him being arcane, occult, or just a non-caster with spell points as others have suggested.
Hybrid Classes: I'm hoping better multiclassing rules makes these guys unnecessary. The Arcanist can stay, since it has a unique style of casting. The Arcanist spell list is obvious; it's right there in the name.
j b 200 |
Witch: I can definitely see the witch choosing spell list based on patron. It just fits too perfectly to be otherwise.
I have to say, I am strongly in new spell list for Witch camp. What really helped to Witch stand out (an IMO, make it a popular choice) was the different and highly flavorful spell list. The Patrons will each give powers like Domains instead of customized lists. Agree that Hexes will be cantrips like Bard.
Oracle: I could see these guys getting the same "you pick" treatment via mysteries, even if the default feels divine. Many mysteries have a very strong primal or occult flavor. Still wouldn't be surprised if they were just divine.
I also think Oracle will have a significant overhaul, really changing how mysteries work and beefing up the curses. I go back and forth on the "only Divine" vs. "Pick your list like Sorcerer" decision.
Inquisitor: very definitely divine.
Inquisitor will go full Powers like the Paladin. Really beef up Judgments, in some ways will encroach on Warpriest territory.
Magus: while I might be jumping the gun a bit, I'm actually going to predict that Magus will be one of the classes that will see a complete overhaul when it comes. It's a popular and iconic class so I know it will be back, but it had a very specific niche in PF1 and the rules changes in PF2 have largely rendered that niche irrelevant. The change to the action economy has made spell combat largely obsolete, since anyone can now perform a cast/attack combo without special class features. Given the fact that BAB and spell list differences are a thing of the past, a straight port of the Magus has very little to distinguish itself from the wizard. If it does come back as a stand-alone class, I predict it will see a major overhaul.
100% agree on this. More focus on Magus Arcana and Arcane Pool (maybe get pool strike for free?). Keep spellstrike, as that is something you still can't do with new EA.
Summoner: kinda afraid of how this guy will turn out, because I really disliked the direction of the unchained summoner. In any case, I could see him being arcane, occult, or just a non-caster with spell points as others have suggested.
This is one of the classes that I DON'T expect to see in P2, certainly not until the 3rd or 4th round of new/updated classes. It isn't particularly popular and is actually outright banned at many tables. If it does come to P2, expect it to also be nearly unrecognizable when compared to P1, only thing the same will be name.
Hybrid Classes: I'm hoping better multiclassing rules makes these guys unnecessary. The Arcanist can stay, since it has a unique style of casting. The Arcanist spell list is obvious; it's right there in the name.
As many of theses are SUPER niche builds and only exist due to the base classes they are build off of, most of these also won't make it to P2, or if they do it will be in name only.
The only exception to this is the Shaman, who should have just been their own thing. Expect full rebuild of the Spirits, and likely uses the Sp + Ma spell list.
Friendly Rogue |
Dasrak wrote:Hybrid Classes: I'm hoping better multiclassing rules makes these guys unnecessary. The Arcanist can stay, since it has a unique style of casting. The Arcanist spell list is obvious; it's right there in the name.As many of theses are SUPER niche builds and only exist due to the base classes they are build off of, most of these also won't make it to P2, or if they do it will be in name only.
The only exception to this is the Shaman, who should have just been their own thing. Expect full rebuild of the Spirits, and likely uses the Sp + Ma spell list.
That's partly why I'm predicting why the Shaman will get a new spell list based off of Material and Spiritual essences - they're way too similar to the Witch for me to be comfortable with them getting a similar spell list, and if they get access to only the Primal spell list they'll be stepping on the toes of the Druid.
As for the other Hybrid classes, I'm fine with them being pretty different from their P1e counterparts if it's in exchange for them being unique in the next edition.
j b 200 |
j b 200 wrote:Dasrak wrote:Hybrid Classes: I'm hoping better multiclassing rules makes these guys unnecessary. The Arcanist can stay, since it has a unique style of casting. The Arcanist spell list is obvious; it's right there in the name.As many of theses are SUPER niche builds and only exist due to the base classes they are build off of, most of these also won't make it to P2, or if they do it will be in name only.
The only exception to this is the Shaman, who should have just been their own thing. Expect full rebuild of the Spirits, and likely uses the Sp + Ma spell list.
That's partly why I'm predicting why the Shaman will get a new spell list based off of Material and Spiritual essences - they're way too similar to the Witch for me to be comfortable with them getting a similar spell list, and if they get access to only the Primal spell list they'll be stepping on the toes of the Druid.
As for the other Hybrid classes, I'm fine with them being pretty different from their P1e counterparts if it's in exchange for them being unique in the next edition.
I really feel like the reason it took till the 4th class expansion book (!!!) to get a shaman class is because the hope to keep the term "shaman" as a generic non-meta term for the local spellcaster. "You should seek out the village shaman, he will know of this hidden knowledge." feels more organic than the very meta "Speak to the village Cleric/WIzard/Druid/etc."
We still don't know how the essences effect what spells end up on which spell list. Mark Seifter had a comment on another thread indicating that a spell could be on as many as 3 different spell lists.
Friendly Rogue |
I really feel like the reason it took till the 4th class expansion book (!!!) to get a shaman class is because the hope to keep the term "shaman" as a generic non-meta term for the local spellcaster. "You should seek out the village shaman, he will know of this hidden knowledge." feels more organic than the very meta "Speak to the village Cleric/WIzard/Druid/etc."
We still don't know how the essences effect what spells end up on which spell list. Mark Seifter had a comment on another thread indicating that a spell could be on as many as 3 different spell lists.
Well, Shamanism is a very specific ideology that is pretty distinct from something like Druidism (the generalized veneration of nature) or worship of a deity like a Cleric, where it emphasizes spirituality and the connections between the physical and spiritual worlds. For non-meta terms regarding classes, you could always use things like Mage or Scholar for a Wizard, a Priest, Deacon, or Bishop for a Cleric (alternatively, you could use terminology from other religions, such as a Rabbi), and for a Druid you could use terms like a naturalist or... well, a Druid - there's no real shame in using meta terms to describe a character if they are that class, although I definitely understand a reluctance to want to use those terms constantly.
Friendly Rogue |
I can foresee future conflict among the base about which list a given class should use or if it should be patron/mystery subfeature dependent.
I genuinely don't think it will be that big of an issue where there will be really widespread arguments about it. Even with the Bard, only a few people were particularly miffed about them being Occult spellcasters, but the majority of people seemed anywhere between indifferent to excited about it. I figure that, so long as it makes sense in the context of their previous incarnation, or is at least justifiable, then most people won't be too upset about whichever choices Paizo goes in regards to spell lists.
Mark Seifter Designer |
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Friendly Rogue wrote:j b 200 wrote:Dasrak wrote:Hybrid Classes: I'm hoping better multiclassing rules makes these guys unnecessary. The Arcanist can stay, since it has a unique style of casting. The Arcanist spell list is obvious; it's right there in the name.As many of theses are SUPER niche builds and only exist due to the base classes they are build off of, most of these also won't make it to P2, or if they do it will be in name only.
The only exception to this is the Shaman, who should have just been their own thing. Expect full rebuild of the Spirits, and likely uses the Sp + Ma spell list.
That's partly why I'm predicting why the Shaman will get a new spell list based off of Material and Spiritual essences - they're way too similar to the Witch for me to be comfortable with them getting a similar spell list, and if they get access to only the Primal spell list they'll be stepping on the toes of the Druid.
As for the other Hybrid classes, I'm fine with them being pretty different from their P1e counterparts if it's in exchange for them being unique in the next edition.
I really feel like the reason it took till the 4th class expansion book (!!!) to get a shaman class is because the hope to keep the term "shaman" as a generic non-meta term for the local spellcaster. "You should seek out the village shaman, he will know of this hidden knowledge." feels more organic than the very meta "Speak to the village Cleric/WIzard/Druid/etc."
We still don't know how the essences effect what spells end up on which spell list. Mark Seifter had a comment on another thread indicating that a spell could be on as many as 3 different spell lists.
That may have been misleading; I was talking about some spells that meld two non-opposed essences and wind up on all three lists with either essence, but I forgot to mention spells that can work based on different methods and thus have some ORs in their essences. Spells like dispel magic can be performed in different ways using almost any essence.
AnimatedPaper |
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Magus: while I might be jumping the gun a bit, I'm actually going to predict that Magus will be one of the classes that will see a complete overhaul when it comes. It's a popular and iconic class so I know it will be back, but it had a very specific niche in PF1 and the rules changes in PF2 have largely rendered that niche irrelevant. The change to the action economy has made spell combat largely obsolete, since anyone can now perform a cast/attack combo without special class features. Given the fact that BAB and spell list differences are a thing of the past, a straight port of the Magus has very little to distinguish itself from the wizard. If it does come back as a stand-alone class, I predict it will see a major overhaul.
Somewhat disagree. In a few ways, the Magus was the original Hybrid class of Pathfinder, and shares with the ACG classes the fact that multiclassing, especially if it based on VMC like many of us predict, will render it largely irrelevant. However, ALSO like most of the Hybrid classes, it has a couple of unique abilities that I'd like to see ported forward even in the new action economy paradigm.
I semi-joked in another thread that Magus could be ported to PF2 with a feat or two. That's not really an exaggeration; a single feat that allowed casters to make an attack as their somatic casting action when casting a touch spell would open up Spellstrike to a great many characters (both more classes and more styles of attacking).
Alternatively, that could be the first feat for an Eldritch Knight prestige archetype. A ranged version of the same feat could open up Eldritch Archer.
...Acually, scratch those names. Eldritch needs to be saved to be the name for the Material/Spiritual essence that people have wanted for Shaman. Personally, I want it for witches, but Patrons determining spell lists might be interesting.
Vital lists also all use Wisdom for casting and have Wis based skills, while Mental ones use Intelligence and have Int based skills (the latter is speculative but very likely), while both can have Cha based spontaneous casters. Structurally this means there's almost certainly never gonna be a list without one, and only one, of Mental or Vital. So that just reconfirms the 'only 4 lists' thing.
This could be a correct guess, but I'm not ready to infer a pattern off a handful of examples. And even if that's the guideline at the moment, it shouldn't stop Paizo from stepping away from that guideline if the situation warrants it.
Your point about skills is very much true though. I can see ways around it (number 1, simply allow two skills to have knowledge over two spell-lists each), but for now that's a hard limiting factor.