2016 US Election


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BigNorseWolf wrote:
thejeff wrote:
Luckily it seems it's not what the American public wants. Once they're forced to confront it with no excuses.

I'm really worried by how close this is. (or how close the media is making it seem so that they have a horse race to report on)

It means that republicans don't actually need to change: all they need to do is keep the class warfare, sexism and racism set to "dog whistle" instead of "megaphone" and they can still win.

Of course. That's what they've been doing for decades. It is getting harder because demographics are changing.

But what the Tea Party and Trump have shown very clearly is that the dog whistles aren't good enough if someone's willing to use the megaphone. The one with the megaphone can win the base and the primary and there's little the establishment and their pleas to keep to the dog whistles can do to stop it. It's a nasty trap they're in and I suspect it's going to get worse before they find a way to break out.

Mind you, they'll still almost certainly hold the House and probably the Senate and they'll do even better in 2018, so it's not like they're dead.


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CBDunkerson wrote:

Exactly.

None of this is a surprise. Trump has been openly misogynistic, racist, and bigoted for decades. All the Republicans denouncing him in disgust now should have been doing so when he first announced his candidacy... but they didn't want to offend the misogynists, racists, and bigots. They wanted to continue playing footsie with evil... go along just enough that 'the deplorables' would continue to vote for them. Unfortunately, they underestimated the effect decades of right wing propaganda has had on their base. Majorities of Republicans now embrace the most vile of beliefs because that is what they have been told is 'Truth' by Fox news, Limbaugh, and the rest of the charlatans in right wing 'news'. So now this is the Republican party. Not just one candidate, but the reality of the party as a whole... brought out in to the light of day for all to see.

The two 'wings' of the party are now the bigots and the cowards who allowed the bigots to take over rather than dealing with the real issues facing the country... always easier to say it is immigrants taking all the jobs than deal with income inequality, make up stories of 'government oppression' for the militia types rather than deal with the reality of global warming, feed Islamophobia rather than admit they have no plan to fix the mess they created in the middle-east, et cetera. A failed party has become a destructive party... actively harmful to the nation rather than 'merely' bereft of ideas and obstructionist.

If we are lucky this could be the last gasp of infantile humanity... clinging to bigotry and hatred rather than facing the world as it is and looking for real solutions. OR we could be facing a resurgence of the kind of idiotic beliefs that the human race had finally started to put behind them over the course of the past century.

Even that's too kind, IMO. They've encouraged the bigotry in order to get support for economic and domestic policies they wanted to push and that wouldn't have had enough support otherwise.

It's not just that they're using the bigotry and social issues to avoid facing the real problems, they're using them to create the real problems.

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Irontruth wrote:
captain yesterday wrote:
Paul Ryan has already called it off.

Yeah, he hasn't rescinded his support for Trump though.

Basically Ryan is saying, "Trump is too much of a creep to come to Wisconsin, but I still support him being in charge of the country."

He does realize Wisconsin is in said country, right?


What Wisconsin Trumps supporters are like, sadly there's more people like this around then i'd care to admit.


Wibbly Wobbly Timey Wimey Today wrote:
What Wisconsin Trumps supporters are like, sadly there's more people like this around then i'd care to admit.

More 'sconny' fun.


doc roc wrote:

Trump isnt going to win thats for sure.... he should have been a lot tighter on how he handles public appearances

Oh well.... HC's years of blandness and water treading beckon!

Keep your head up, still a chance for social strife and financial ruin ahead...


Listens to Trump talking trash about women and celebrity status.

oO
>
~~

Huh... Looks like he'll fit-in quite well in Washington D.C.


HRC Speech Transcript wrote:
I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody's watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position.
Clinton campaign research director Tony Carrk wrote:

Jan. 25, 2016

Attached are the flags from HRC’s paid speeches we have from HWA. I put some highlights below. There is a lot of policy positions that we should give an extra scrub with Policy.

Goldman Sachs Speech wrote:

HRC on why Wall Street should be in on the implementation of financial reform.

"The people that know the industry better than anybody are the people who work in the industry."

Politico wrote:

Clinton conceded to needing a “public and a private position” in politics.

Back in February 2015 when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was raising millions of dollars for a future juggernaut presidential campaign and he appeared in early polls to be the Republican frontrunner, Clinton’s aides examined the language of his early economic pitch.

“Very little in this speech that HRC wouldn’t say,” -Clinton adviser Mandy Grunwald.

Whuh?... Bernie was right! Who knew?!?


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The next week is going to be really interesting

Trump has the town hall debate Sunday. Given that Trump does poorly when unscripted and he is going to be coming from an aggravating few days, he potentially will do even worse than the last debate. If he tanks again, with this current scandal still in play, he might get his republican support cut off and fall far enough behind in the polls to not be able to recover.

Although all of this assumes the voter base doesn't forget completely all this stuff by the time the election comes around...which is sadly not impossible.


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Reminder, Donald Trump has a hearing on Dec 16 in a case where rape charges have been filed against him.

Edit: If you're unfamiliar with the case, she was 13 at the time and has made allegations consistent with other cases that have been made against Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted pedophile. This allegedly happened in 1994 and part of her case is reliant on the threats made against her by Mr. Epstein. The most unusual aspect of the case is that a witness is included in the complaint. Normally these cases that are tried years/decades after the fact are supremely difficult because little evidence remains and no witnesses can be found.

As for our non-legal purposes, it's a fairly clear pattern emerging.

His first wife made sworn testimony about an incident that sounds a lot like violent rape.

Another women filed sexual assault charges back in 1997.

In 2005 he admitted, in nonspecific terms, that he likes to sexually assault women.

He's admitted to watching Paris Hilton's sex tape, someone he's known since she was 12.

He's made numerous comments about his own daughter and how he finds her sexually appealing.

Putting aside the "locker room talk" aspect of all this(this is also problematic but the lesser of two things going on), it's clear he likes to force himself on women, particularly those who are powerless to stop him.


Irontruth wrote:
Reminder, Donald Trump has a hearing on Dec 16 in a case where rape charges have been filed against him.

If he's elected President, he might not have to go.


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CBDunkerson wrote:

Exactly.

None of this is a surprise. Trump has been openly misogynistic, racist, and bigoted for decades. All the Republicans denouncing him in disgust now should have been doing so when he first announced his candidacy...

No, this SHOULD have been done with george bush, dick cheney, mit romney, and every under the radar anti abortion bill republicans have ever signed, including pence.

It should have been done with every racist "voter id" law meant to keep minorities from voting

It should have been done with every gerrymander attempt.

But It wasn't. And it won't be once republicans figure out how to rig their system to prevent another trump. Meaning that the racists will still be there making racist laws.


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Something I saw on the book of faces: "Donald Trump may be the face of your rapist but Mike Pence is the judge that lets him get away with it."


MMCJawa wrote:

The next week is going to be really interesting

Trump has the town hall debate Sunday. Given that Trump does poorly when unscripted and he is going to be coming from an aggravating few days, he potentially will do even worse than the last debate. If he tanks again, with this current scandal still in play, he might get his republican support cut off and fall far enough behind in the polls to not be able to recover.

Although all of this assumes the voter base doesn't forget completely all this stuff by the time the election comes around...which is sadly not impossible.

The Town Hall debate format is likely to be even worse for him than the earlier more formal one.

The voter base might forget it, if there are no more revelations and he doesn't keep flailing at it. But he's Trump. He can't keep from flailing at it.

If he somehow doesn't screw anything up in the debates and there are no more revelations and he stays off Twitter attacking bystanders, then the polls will tighten again. There's a month left and early voting has started. Likely worst case is still a Clinton victory, but narrower than it looks right now. More likely, he'll get baited into something at the debate that drags him down further.


thejeff wrote:
MMCJawa wrote:

The next week is going to be really interesting

Trump has the town hall debate Sunday. Given that Trump does poorly when unscripted and he is going to be coming from an aggravating few days, he potentially will do even worse than the last debate. If he tanks again, with this current scandal still in play, he might get his republican support cut off and fall far enough behind in the polls to not be able to recover.

Although all of this assumes the voter base doesn't forget completely all this stuff by the time the election comes around...which is sadly not impossible.

The Town Hall debate format is likely to be even worse for him than the earlier more formal one.

The voter base might forget it, if there are no more revelations and he doesn't keep flailing at it. But he's Trump. He can't keep from flailing at it.

If he somehow doesn't screw anything up in the debates and there are no more revelations and he stays off Twitter attacking bystanders, then the polls will tighten again. There's a month left and early voting has started. Likely worst case is still a Clinton victory, but narrower than it looks right now. More likely, he'll get baited into something at the debate that drags him down further.

Or maybe he'll listen to the intensive coaching he's liable to be undergoing just like when he started using teleprompters to keep from going off the rails in prepared speeches. Right now they're pretty much 1-1, Clinton clobbered Trump in the first debate while Pence let Kaine make an ass of himself on national TV.


Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:
thejeff wrote:
MMCJawa wrote:

The next week is going to be really interesting

Trump has the town hall debate Sunday. Given that Trump does poorly when unscripted and he is going to be coming from an aggravating few days, he potentially will do even worse than the last debate. If he tanks again, with this current scandal still in play, he might get his republican support cut off and fall far enough behind in the polls to not be able to recover.

Although all of this assumes the voter base doesn't forget completely all this stuff by the time the election comes around...which is sadly not impossible.

The Town Hall debate format is likely to be even worse for him than the earlier more formal one.

The voter base might forget it, if there are no more revelations and he doesn't keep flailing at it. But he's Trump. He can't keep from flailing at it.

If he somehow doesn't screw anything up in the debates and there are no more revelations and he stays off Twitter attacking bystanders, then the polls will tighten again. There's a month left and early voting has started. Likely worst case is still a Clinton victory, but narrower than it looks right now. More likely, he'll get baited into something at the debate that drags him down further.

Or maybe he'll listen to the intensive coaching he's liable to be undergoing just like when he started using teleprompters to keep from going off the rails in prepared speeches. Right now they're pretty much 1-1, Clinton clobbered Trump in the first debate while Pence let Kaine make an ass of himself on national TV.

Implying the VP debates matter anywhere near as much as the presidential ones


Spastic Puma wrote:
Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:
thejeff wrote:
MMCJawa wrote:

The next week is going to be really interesting

Trump has the town hall debate Sunday. Given that Trump does poorly when unscripted and he is going to be coming from an aggravating few days, he potentially will do even worse than the last debate. If he tanks again, with this current scandal still in play, he might get his republican support cut off and fall far enough behind in the polls to not be able to recover.

Although all of this assumes the voter base doesn't forget completely all this stuff by the time the election comes around...which is sadly not impossible.

The Town Hall debate format is likely to be even worse for him than the earlier more formal one.

The voter base might forget it, if there are no more revelations and he doesn't keep flailing at it. But he's Trump. He can't keep from flailing at it.

If he somehow doesn't screw anything up in the debates and there are no more revelations and he stays off Twitter attacking bystanders, then the polls will tighten again. There's a month left and early voting has started. Likely worst case is still a Clinton victory, but narrower than it looks right now. More likely, he'll get baited into something at the debate that drags him down further.

Or maybe he'll listen to the intensive coaching he's liable to be undergoing just like when he started using teleprompters to keep from going off the rails in prepared speeches. Right now they're pretty much 1-1, Clinton clobbered Trump in the first debate while Pence let Kaine make an ass of himself on national TV.
Implying the VP debates matter anywhere near as much as the presidential ones

They do...as in practically nothing at all with the sides pretty much hunkered down as they are. Nothing that was going to happen at these debates is going to change the mind of a Trump zealot if everything the man has done up to now hasn't already. Pretty much goes the same for those voting for Clinton, but for other reasons. The only time a debate changed anything was Kennedy/Nixon, and no one is going to repeat Nixon's mistakes.

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Yet the polls moved significantly in Clinton's favor after the first debate (and before the Trump tax and other most recent scandals).


Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:
Spastic Puma wrote:
Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:


Or maybe he'll listen to the intensive coaching he's liable to be undergoing just like when he started using teleprompters to keep from going off the rails in prepared speeches. Right now they're pretty much 1-1, Clinton clobbered Trump in the first debate while Pence let Kaine make an ass of himself on national TV.
Implying the VP debates matter anywhere near as much as the presidential ones
They do...as in practically nothing at all with the sides pretty much hunkered down as they are. Nothing that was going to happen at these debates is going to change the mind of a Trump zealot if everything the man has done up to now hasn't already. Pretty much goes the same for those voting for Clinton, but for other reasons. The only time a debate changed anything was Kennedy/Nixon, and no one is going to repeat Nixon's mistakes.

And yet the polls swung sharply after the first debate. The hardline supporters on either side don't change, but they don't decide the election anyway. There are plenty who could be persuaded one way or the other - or to vote instead of sitting it out. That's who's being targeted now.

"Intensive coaching"? Like the debate prep he's pointed not been doing? Yeah, they managed to get him to stay on script most of the time with teleprompters - after a lot of work. He's not going to have a teleprompter. He's not going to magically morph into a real presidential candidate at the last minute, no matter how much you want him too. This is Trump. He's not good at hiding it.

And the VP debate? Pence made himself look good, but he didn't do Trump any favors. He might have won on a tactical level, but Kaine was targeting Trump, not Pence.


All I know is this: If the Republicans keep supporting Trump, it will most definitely hurt them in any race from now until 2020.


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So I can't say i find it shocking that Trump would do and say such terrible things, I would expect a practiced con-man and all around sleaze to be good enough at being sleazy by age 60 to not get caught quite so blatantly. It makes me wonder if there is more of this, and if the republican party did no vetting whatsoever. Washington Post has been digging stuff up basically all month on him, and there's still about 30 days to go.


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Squeakmaan wrote:
So I can't say i find it shocking that Trump would do and say such terrible things, I would expect a practiced con-man and all around sleaze to be good enough at being sleazy by age 60 to not get caught quite so blatantly. It makes me wonder if there is more of this, and if the republican party did no vetting whatsoever. Washington Post has been digging stuff up basically all month on him, and there's still about 30 days to go.

If you get away with it long enough, you get sloppy because you think you can't get caught and no one will care. And it worked and would have kept working except for that whole public spotlight of the presidential campaign thing.

It does kind of seem strange that none of the primary opponents bothered to dig into this kind of thing - or the Foundation/financial issues.. It might have given them avenues of attack to take him down that didn't rely on angering the base they needed to appeal to.


Vetting? I do believe there was ANY vetting done before, during, or after the primary.


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Trump: 'I Know That Was Pretty Bad, But Let’s Just Say You’re Going To Want To Save Your Energy’ - from The Onion

Sovereign Court

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Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:
Or maybe he'll listen to the intensive coaching he's liable to be undergoing just like when he started using teleprompters to keep from going off the rails in prepared speeches. Right now they're pretty much 1-1, Clinton clobbered Trump in the first debate while Pence let Kaine make an ass of himself on national TV.

Kaine's was a very tactical loss. They got all the ad clips they needed to needle Pence about what Trump says and believes.


Squeakmaan wrote:
So I can't say i find it shocking that Trump would do and say such terrible things, I would expect a practiced con-man and all around sleaze to be good enough at being sleazy by age 60 to not get caught quite so blatantly.

Why? Nothing happens when he gets caught. Why change?

Sovereign Court

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Irontruth wrote:
Trump: 'I Know That Was Pretty Bad, But Let’s Just Say You’re Going To Want To Save Your Energy’ - from The Onion

Doesn't feel like satire at this point.

Sovereign Court

Pence might have won the debate but I think he lost at reality.


Guy Humual wrote:
Irontruth wrote:
Trump: 'I Know That Was Pretty Bad, But Let’s Just Say You’re Going To Want To Save Your Energy’ - from The Onion
Doesn't feel like satire at this point.

I pitty them poes law this election cycle.


Squeakmaan wrote:
It makes me wonder if there is more of this, and if the republican party did no vetting whatsoever.

I'm sure the answers are "yes" and "yes." That said, who was going to do the vetting, and what were they going to do with it?

Trump was actually a tremendously powerful force for getting out the base; more or less every other candidate in the race thought they could use him, give a few nudges and winks about his more outlandish positions, but stop short of either endorsing him or denouncing him. He was also doing a very good job of culling the overfilled candidate slate, and as long as I'm not the one being culled, I'm very glad to have it happen, especially if I don't get tarred as the hatchetman.

... and then Trump didn't lose when he was supposed to (having completed his usefulness as a tool), and kept winning, but no one was willing to draw the wrath of the fired-up base until he had a more or less unstoppable delegate lead.

And now they're stuck with him. He may have six illegitimate children by five separate women, which we'll learn about around Hallowe'en,.... but how would vetting so that the RNC knows about that by the 15th improve matters?


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Your assuming he is going to prep for this one. He didn't on the last one, and given the pounding he is getting in the press how focused do you think he is going to be?

The townhall format is itself is a type of format that is inimical to Trump's personality. It's supposed to consist of middle of the road/unsure voters, not adoring fans. He will be forced to answer questions he may not have remotely prepped for, and engage in a personable manner alongside Hillary with said person. I am not convinced that even if he practiced hardcore for this, he has the personality to handle this type of interaction.


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Pence is the supervillian that just sits there and lies smugly while the hero tells the truth and winds up sounding like a lunatic.


BigNorseWolf wrote:
Pence is the supervillian that just sits there and lies smugly while the hero tells the truth and winds up sounding like a lunatic.

Unfortunately for this supervillain, subtly and deception isn't worth much when you work for Dr. Evil.


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As a none American watching all this s%+! from the outside, it baffles me that out of 300 million people these are the two ass clowns that have been have chosen to potentially be the leaders of the country. Really! You guys couldn't find anyone better! WTF!


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P.H. Dungeon wrote:
As a none American watching all this s+@~ from the outside, it baffles me that out of 300 million people these are the two ass clowns that have been have chosen to potentially be the leaders of the country. Really! You guys couldn't find anyone better! WTF!

There was an extraordinarily depressing analysis I saw that I wish I could link.

40% of the voting public will vote for the Republican candidate, no matter who the candidate is.
"A slightly higher percentage" will vote for the Democratic candidate, no matter who the candidate is.

With those percentages, you can understand why we are trapped by this idiocy.

But the question becomes, "WHY are people so entrenched in their voting habits, and is there anything we can do about it?"

If this election is any indication, then it's so entrenched the the Simpsons Halloween episode where Kang and Kodos take over the election (link) is no longer satire, but reality.

And that is just truly, truly sad.

And the whole excuse of, "Well, I HAVE to vote for xxx, because otherwise yyy may win" is such a sad, sad reason to vote that I'd rather such voters just leave the presidential ballot blank. We really need a "None of the above" option to allow disenfranchised voters to express their frustration WITHOUT having them vote for the lesser of two evils.

EDIT: Yeah, I'd love a system whereby if "None of the above" wins, every party has to roll out a new candidate. We might go 4-6 years without a president as election after election ended up with, "Nope, none of those guys, neither."
And the country would be better off for it.


Clearly when Trump was living his life for the past decade or so (talking s!#~ with Howard Stern and otherwise being a creep), he wasn't thinking- "I should probably watch I say and do because someday I might run for president and this could all bite me in the ass."

I also love how he says not to judge him by what he said and that it "doesn't reflect him as person". Uh what?? So what should we judge you by then? Just your hair alone?


Which is also a travesty.


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P.H. Dungeon wrote:

Clearly when Trump was living his life for the past decade or so (talking s%#$ with Howard Stern and otherwise being a creep), he wasn't thinking- "I should probably watch I say and do because someday I might run for president and this could all bite me in the ass."

I also love how he says not to judge him by what he said and that it "doesn't reflect him as person". Uh what?? So what should we judge you by then? Just your hair alone?

It is by hair alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of Brylecreem that thoughts acquire offensiveness, the lips acquire motion, the motions become an embarrassment. It is by hair alone I set my mind in motion.


Now he's speaking in tongues...


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If I thought the Republicans were competent enough to pull it off, I would have thought this was part of some secret strategy. Calling for Trump to drop out after the first controversy post Pence's competent showing during the VP debate is a bit interesting as far as timing goes.


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If you think Hillary and Trump are same, you clearly have not actually paid attention to anything this election or to anything either side has said regarding policy.

Silver Crusade

MMCJawa wrote:
If you think Hillary and Trump are same, you clearly have not actually paid attention to anything this election or to anything either side has said regarding policy.

They are definitely different types of horrible. 320 million Americans and these two are the "best" we came up with.


MMC,

Yeah it almost SEEMS plausible if they hadn't already burned through the better candidates.

I think best is over-generalization. This is what a small segment of a registered party voted as their nominee. Are they best liked? Probably not? Most trusted? Very unlikely. Good at their job? That one I think Hillary wins out on but only because Trump keeps proving how bad a politician he truly is.


Thomas Seitz wrote:

MMC,

Yeah it almost SEEMS plausible if they hadn't already burned through the better candidates.

Not really. There are (at least) three major barriers to this as a strategy. The first is that there's been little sign that the Trump supporters are actually willing to support a more mainstream candidate; the whole point of his candidacy is a grassroots, anti-establishment revolt. To replace him at the last minute through political shenanigans would cause many of those supporters to stay home in droves -- hardly a recipe for electoral success.

The second barrier is that, as you point out, Pence is not a particularly good candidate. He's not even popular in his home state -- and if the party decided to replace the standing veep candidate with someone else, the bloodbath deciding whom would look like a Sam Peckinpah movie on fast-forward.

The third, though, is that it's literally impossible. A number of states have laws barring "faithless electors"; electors are required to vote for the person -- not the party -- named on the ballot. A number of states are already past the deadline for making changes to the ballot; the ballot says "Trump" and it will continue to say "Trump" and not "Pence." Some states fall into both candidates, including (I believe) Florida and Ohio both.

This makes Florida and Ohio literally unwinnable for Pence, or for any other (Republican) candidate except Trump. It puts both states into a heads-I-lose-tails-you-win-state. If the Republican electors get more votes, the electoral votes will still go to Trump, splitting the vote. If the Democrats get more votes, of course, Clinton gets the electors. So the best that the Republicans can do is split the conservative vote among two candidates.

There's a chance, if that happens, that no one will win a majority of the electoral college, but in this case, the House of Representatives will need to select a president, and the individual representatives will have the same dilemma -- vote against Trump and face the wrath of the Trump supporters, or support him and lose the support of the party apparachniks? If the vote splits in the House of Representatives, Clinton wins.

As a strategy, it's a pretty cunning one indeed.


Orfamy,

I pointed out that about Pence? I don't recall but I take the brownie points where I can get them! ;)

But yeah it's a pretty much a crap storm inside a manure explosion.


A summary of Trump's week. Probably good reading before tomorrow's debate.


Red,

I think I'll sleep in or watch Wes Schneider's Twitch feed instead of the debate clusterfrak.


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I think you misspelled "Clusterf@$%".


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I am going to watch; from the political chatter if Trump tanks the debate the party might desert him. And I have, after the last debate and knowing the format of the next one...have no doubt that the debate is not going to go Trump's way

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