I'm a bit worried for Drejk's future. :(
Goodbye Scotland and Northern Ireland if they actually go through with leaving.
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All of these will stay because politicians are nothing if not pragmatic.
Goodbye UK public servants in the EU institutions though.
And very likely goodbye to the checks and balances that kept France and Germany from taking the wheel of the EU more firmly in their hands. So, goodbye to heavy importance put on small countries and the leniency that they enjoyed, goodbye to those who opposed a stronger political EU.
Maybe a streamlined, more rational and more efficient EU will rise from this mess, with provisions for when the UK will want to come back so that this time it happens on the EU terms and not on theirs
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The EU was originally created to prevent a new war between its members. It has been so successful at this that its people forgot that war in Europe was even a possibility. Hence this result
Note that it succeeded in this by constantly finding compromises between its various members' ideologies. Not by sticking to a single one such as the free trade only or the full political or fiscal union ideas. Even though both have proponents that will tell you that their favorite view was the one that was not implemented strongly enough.
The sad truth is that economical crises breed mistrust which strengthens nationalism and communautarism. Which are prime breeding grounds for war.
What happens next ? I expect intense diplomatic activity spearheaded by France and Germany to prevent rocking the EU boat even further. And then designing a special status for the UK so that economically speaking things stay mostly the same while it will officially not be part of the EU anymore. Which should not be that difficult considering the many exceptions it already benefited from
So bad news, real possibility of yet another financial crisis, but not the end of the world. Not yet
EU was and is still torn apart between two visions : a federalist one, and a pureley economic one, so far spearheaded by UK. Most of the sand in the wheels came from that basic divergence, as UK opposed anything giving more control and power to the UE and promoted a wider UE (more and more members) by opposition to a deeper UE (more powers, closer to a central government). It also asked for and got a lot of privileges and exemptions (I remember Mrs Thatcher declaring "she wanted her money back" at the Dublin summit and getting a cut, just so she didn't veto the whole Euro treaty for the other countries). It didn't work out for anybody in the long run. At least, things are clearer now : they had only one foot on the continent, they chose to get it back.
Not sure about the compromise part, alas. It can be argued that the vested interest of UE is now that the brexit doesn't go well for UK, to discourage others to do exactly the same. If you could have all the advantages of UE and none of the rules just by breaking off, what would be the point of staying ? My bet is on a full return of customs rules for UK, just the same as any foreign country.
Is linking to this in bad taste* topically? My "exhibiting !ssholish behavior self-monitoring systems" may be on the fritz.
Well, duh, of course it's bad taste musically...)
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People of Britain.
Donald Trump congratulates you on the wisdom of your "fantastic" decision.
P.S. You no longer get to make fun of us Yanks for electing George W. Bush.
Yeah, but all the polls were skewing heavily pro-Remain before the vote, and look how that went. This will likely have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, and lead to unforeseen negatives for the U.S. down the road. All of which may help the King in Orange's chances in November.
So be careful who you mock, because the pain's just beginning...
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Interesting point though, the referendum is not binding for parliament and a majority of the MPs seem to be against leaving the EU.
It wouldn't be the first time the politicians went against their voters.Source for those who speak german:
welt.de
The referendum is binding legally, there was an Act of Parliament. What isn't clear is what Brexit will actually mean. That is where Parliament will have a lot of influence because there are a number of different routes to go.
Personally, I think this is a disaster.
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This is bad and sad.
1 million Poles who migrated to the UK are facing an uncertain future. Will they be deported? Will some be allowed to stay? Under what criteria? Income, education? Most migrants are unskilled blue collars. If they are forced to return, our strained budget and economy might not be able to handle it.
For all its cocky and frequently infuriating exceptionalist attitude to the EU, the UK was the single anti-Russian hawk among a bunch of doves. We could count on the Brits keeping the eastern flank on the agenda, without them? Not so much.
The only glimmer of hope is that now, free from the looming British veto on anything related to closer integration of the EU, the "Original Six" will initiate a move towards EU 2.0.
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Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
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The EU was originally created to prevent a new war between its members. It has been so successful at this that its people forgot that war in Europe was even a possibility. Hence this result
Note that it succeeded in this by constantly finding compromises between its various members' ideologies. Not by sticking to a single one such as the free trade only or the full political or fiscal union ideas. Even though both have proponents that will tell you that their favorite view was the one that was not implemented strongly enough.
The sad truth is that economical crises breed mistrust which strengthens nationalism and communautarism. Which are prime breeding grounds for war.
What happens next ? I expect intense diplomatic activity spearheaded by France and Germany to prevent rocking the EU boat even further. And then designing a special status for the UK so that economically speaking things stay mostly the same while it will officially not be part of the EU anymore. Which should not be that difficult considering the many exceptions it already benefited from
So bad news, real possibility of yet another financial crisis, but not the end of the world. Not yet
There are unfortunate parallels with the 1930s, yes.
The Brexit camp tried to paint themselves as the cheerful liberals looking outwards to a brave new horizon as a freely trading nation at ease with ourselves and our neighbours. But the real issue on the ground was the fear of immigration, and the potential impact on jobs and public services (which was largely a fallacy anyway). That suggests instead a very inward, resentful motivation for most people. In the end what, bothered people most was economic insecurity - stagnant wages and living standards not improving, because of very low productivity growth. It also highlighted the growing divide between blue-collar workers and a highly educated white-collar sector, and between older people and the young. None of this makes happy reading, but falling for some populist "solution" to our ills (when the EU basically had little to do with the problem, and withdrawal will bring short term economic dislocation and potentially longer term decline) doesn't bode well for the future.
Frankly, I'm angry and a bit depressed. I work for a German company based in London. This could have a very direct impact upon me. Frankly, I expect I can get by. But I might not be doing it in Britain for much longer, depending on just how badly things go. I don't expect the free-trading nirvana that some of the Brexit Tories were prattling on about - the people who voted for Brexit wanted to keep the world out, not to embrace it. In fact, we just rejected good access to the biggest trading bloc in the world. Throw in the fact that Scotland will almost certainly vote to leave the UK, and the position of Northern Ireland is also now thrown into doubt, this will most likely be a much diminished country.
And if you then paint this large across the EU, where you already have Poland and Hungary moving in an undemocratic direction and several other countries, like France and the Netherlands, seemingly headed in a similar direction - prickly, nationalistic, xenophobic - it doesn't look too good all round.
I woke up to find myself becoming very bitter and frustrated.
The pound has dropped to its lowest since 85 and the Leave Campaigns advertisement for £350 million being put into the NHS was a 'mistake' apparently.
At least my county of Ceredigion was a remain majority...
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Looks like I was wrong, according the the Guardian. The referendum is not binding. That said, I don't think there is any chance that the result will be ignored.
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This is bad and sad.
1 million Poles who migrated to the UK are facing an uncertain future. Will they be deported? Will some be allowed to stay? Under what criteria? Income, education? Most migrants are unskilled blue collars. If they are forced to return, our strained budget and economy might not be able to handle it.
The basic answer is that no one knows. There have been soothing noises made that the only concern is with new people coming to the country, not those already here. But the longer term is anyone's guess.
Looks like Scotland will likely break off:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/alex-salmond-second-scottis h-independence-referendum-is-certain
And this time round, I'll be supporting them 100 percent.
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I am in the UK and very sad about it.
75% of under 25's wanted to remain.
53% of under 50's wanted to remain.
63% of over 65's wanted to leave.
We have basically been pulled out by retirees that have their great pensions and paid for houses while those having to deal with the ramifications got out voted.
And the EU is accused of being undemocratic?
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Welcome back to the Commonwealth, we missed you!
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I am in the UK and very sad about it.
75% of under 25's wanted to remain.
53% of under 50's wanted to remain.63% of over 65's wanted to leave.
We have basically been pulled out by retirees that have their great pensions and paid for houses while those having to deal with the ramifications got out voted.
And the EU is accused of being undemocratic?
Yup. All of those with nothing much to lose f@&~ed over those with plenty to lose.
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Edit: Wait, what the hell happens to the Good Friday Agreement & both parts of Ireland?
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What really bugs me is that the northern counties voted overwhelmingly leave, when a great deal of their funding comes from the EU.
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Current data:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 70.7% turnout (Dang, look at that turnout!)
Leave: 6,177,618 England 4,431,660 N. Ireland 278,401 Scotland 777,954 Wales 689,603
Stay: 5,884,324 England 3,729,267 N. Ireland 322,856 Scotland 1,253,284 Wales 578,917E: "Oh, fair Scotland, stay with us. We're better together, stronger in a union. Don't leave us!"
S: "Um... not sure that's a great idea, but 'kay."
E: "Now that we're staying together, we're leaving the European Union."
S: "Wait, what? We want to stay in the EU. What happened to better together, stronger united?"
E: "HAHAHAH! Good one, weren't it? We have more people than you. We're outta here."
S: "WHERE'S MY F+!$ING CLAYMORE?"
In all fairness they left the nukes with us... I suspect we can go beyond melee range!
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I am in the UK and very sad about it.
75% of under 25's wanted to remain.
53% of under 50's wanted to remain.63% of over 65's wanted to leave.
We have basically been pulled out by retirees that have their great pensions and paid for houses while those having to deal with the ramifications got out voted.
And the EU is accused of being undemocratic?
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch."
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I am in the UK and very sad about it.
75% of under 25's wanted to remain.
53% of under 50's wanted to remain.63% of over 65's wanted to leave.
We have basically been pulled out by retirees that have their great pensions and paid for houses while those having to deal with the ramifications got out voted.
Double cosmic irony... by the time the details of separation are worked out (along with the complications from Scotland and Northern Ireland potentially staying IN the EU)... enough of the people who voted 'leave' will have died off that a majority of those being forced to Brexit will have wanted to stay.
If you are lucky, the process will drag out long enough that another vote can be held before the split happens. Otherwise, Britain is going to leave the EU and immediately have a majority of citizens who want back in.
Edit: Wait, what the hell happens to the Good Friday Agreement & both parts of Ireland?
Now the Netherlands might call for a referendum too?
Damn.
Damn close vote.
Not sure what this means, especially as this is apparently non binding.
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I am in the UK and very sad about it.
75% of under 25's wanted to remain.
53% of under 50's wanted to remain.63% of over 65's wanted to leave.
We have basically been pulled out by retirees that have their great pensions and paid for houses while those having to deal with the ramifications got out voted.
Double cosmic irony... by the time the details of separation are worked out (along with the complications from Scotland and Northern Ireland potentially staying IN the EU)... enough of the people who voted 'leave' will have died off that a majority of those being forced to Brexit will have wanted to stay.
If you are lucky, the process will drag out long enough that another vote can be held before the split happens. Otherwise, Britain is going to leave the EU and immediately have a majority of citizens who want back in.
UK and EU have two years (according to the treaties, no more and no less) to nail down a settlement for brexit. A bit short to count on a massive culling of the brexit crowd, isn'it ?
My closest neighbour is a welsh retiree, who settled in France and opened a little business. With the pound nosediving, he is already economically devastated, and will probably have to close down or get a work permit as any foreigner (which I bet he will get hands down, but it a matter of principle). He had a budding cancer two years ago and got swiftly treated here, because of european health programs ; next time, he would probably have to pay for it or go back to UK.
Globally it's a shameful waste, but for some individuals it's a very direct disaster.
On the positive side, all the agreements that made the french police stop all immigrants at Calais (among other places) on behalf of the UK will go belly up. Maybe that some people who wished for less immigration will be disappointed... Oh the irony ! :)
Damn close vote.
Not sure what this means, especially as this is apparently non binding.
I dunno. The far right UKIP party seems determined to make it stick.
This feels eerily like an Archduke Franz Ferdinand-moment, especially with possible-PotUS Trump lurking in the wings. Edit: And Jo Cox being murdered.
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Democracy is the "power of the people" (literally), the reason the remain option lost is the elites ruling the EU and GB made it clear they have no notion of the worsening living condition of most of the citizens inhabiting those States.
What happens now remains to be seen, but at least the british people has the chance of deciding for itself. Certainly the Germany led EU won't be able to do with GB what it did with Greece last year (it's basically open economic warfare there, with Greece being sold piece by piece to foreigners, most of them, German).
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I'm a bit worried for Drejk's future. :(
Eh, it's not that I am suddenly between weakening EU and aggressive Russia that dreams of rebuilding its empire...
<.<
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Right?
Guys... Guys?!
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Welcome back to the Commonwealth, we missed you!
When did they left ?
On the down side, the Commonwealth just lost its main champion and point of entry on the EU market... Maybe it's bad news for Commonwealth too.
I'm a bit worried for Drejk's future. :(Eh, it's not that I am suddenly between weakening EU and aggressive Russia that dreams of rebuilding its empire...
<.<
>.>
Right?
Guys... Guys?!
Do you have access to beer and peanuts? Turn on your electronic thumb the next time 2016 HO3 swings close; hopefully Galactic Admiral Prince and Emperor Ziggy Stardust will hear your signal and beam you up to safety.
I'm a bit worried for Drejk's future. :(Eh, it's not that I am suddenly between weakening EU and aggressive Russia that dreams of rebuilding its empire...
<.<
>.>
Right?
Guys... Guys?!
I am said that russian is a lovely tongue. You will learn to appreciate it. With time. And maybe electric inducement.
That said, UK was the main opponent to an united european defense, independant of NATO : maybe this project will now proceed faster (UK was also one of the biggest armies around, alas).
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Do you have access to beer and peanuts? Turn on your electronic thumb the next time 2016 HO3 swings close; hopefully Galactic Admiral Prince and Emperor Ziggy Stardust will hear your signal and beam you up to safety.I'm a bit worried for Drejk's future. :(Eh, it's not that I am suddenly between weakening EU and aggressive Russia that dreams of rebuilding its empire...
<.<
>.>
Right?
Guys... Guys?!
I hoped more for The Culture to finally show up... But I think it will be two or three hundred years more before they'll talk to us.
UK and EU have two years (according to the treaties, no more and no less) to nail down a settlement for brexit. A bit short to count on a massive culling of the brexit crowd, isn'it ?
The two years doesn't start until the official notification of intent to leave is given to the EU, so it's likely to be more than that. Not saying it'll be decades, but I wouldn't be expecting us to be leaving on 24th June 2018.
On top of that, if all EU member states agree, the 2 years could be extended.
Personally (and somewhat jokingly), I'm wondering whether Canada would accept the UK as a new province.