The inevitable Brexit thread


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Silver Crusade

Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber

Which for some reason was not set up before I got to this right now.

Anyway, if you lads and gals vote remain, drinks are on me the next time we meet.


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What is the argument for leaving?

I am not being sarcastic.


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Apparently John Oliver's BREXIT segment (NSFW langugage) won't air until after the vote.


Gorbacz wrote:

Which for some reason was not set up before I got to this right now.

Anyway, if you lads and gals vote remain, drinks are on me the next time we meet.

Can't vote, but am pro-remain, I'll be in Cambridge in the fall, so how far am I from my free pint (or two, to boost the local economy)?

Silver Crusade

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Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber
SyrioForel wrote:

What is the argument for leaving?

I am not being sarcastic.

Argument 1: "THE EMPIRE THAT NEVER SAW A SUNSET WILL NOT BE REIGNED BY NAZI-CONTROLLED CYBORGS FROM BRUSSELS"

Argument 2: "The Polish plumber who came to fix my kitchen sink was drunk and smoked on the job, EU GTFO."

And I am not being sarcastic ;-)

Silver Crusade

Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber
Botho Käse wrote:
Gorbacz wrote:

Which for some reason was not set up before I got to this right now.

Anyway, if you lads and gals vote remain, drinks are on me the next time we meet.

Can't vote, but am pro-remain, I'll be in Cambridge in the fall, so how far am I from my free pint (or two, to boost the local economy)?

Not that far, a friend of mine picked up a job at Cambridge Univ, I might swing by to say "hi" at some point.


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Pathfinder Adventure Path, Rulebook, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

Feeling sick right now with Leave having the lead. I don't expect it to last, but this is horrible.

Please, Britain, Remain.


Meh. After refresh the numbers grew on the exit side...


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Here's a link to a real-time update on the voting status


Neat.


I wonder when and what will be results from Norwich...


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It'll be interesting if England votes to leave and Scotland, N. Ireland, and Wales all vote to remain. I believe Scotland has already made noise about another independence referendum and petitioning to join the EU as a sovereign nation if the UK leaves.

Current data:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 67.4% turnout
Leave: 497,630 England 324,829 N. Ireland 78,821 Scotland 93,980 Wales no results yet
Stay: 494,603 England 256,890 N. Ireland 100,321 Scotland 137,392 Wales no results yet


Whichever side wins, there will be a lot of bitter folks in UK tomorrow...


Current data:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 68.5% turnout (Dang, look at that turnout!)
Leave: 1,755,352 England 1,069,008 N. Ireland 131,342 Scotland 358,808 Wales 196,194
Stay: 1,808,139 England 869,545 N. Ireland 165,278 Scotland 608,780 Wales 164,536


Drejk wrote:
I wonder when and what will be results from Norwich...

It seems odd that the coverage focuses on how individual cities/regions/whatevers vote, because that doesn't matter. At least given the way the BBC was explaining it yesterday- only the final total matters. Winner > Loser. So even if there is a solid block of localities that vote a certain way, if their population is relatively small, it doesn't matter in the slightest.

And indeed, the smaller areas are going to be counted quicker, which means these early results actually matter the least.


I am aware of that. I am simply curious because of personal reasons.


It's quite remarkable how tight the race has been so far; I think the biggest difference between the sides I've seen has been around 100-200k (sitting at about 50k right now, in favour of Brexit, from a total of about 9 million. That's about half a percent).


145 thousands now :/


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It's about Americans, but this comic seems appropriately timely to Britons too.


Really this applies to lots of people around the world...


316 thousands...


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Current data:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 70.7% turnout (Dang, look at that turnout!)
Leave: 6,177,618 England 4,431,660 N. Ireland 278,401 Scotland 777,954 Wales 689,603
Stay: 5,884,324 England 3,729,267 N. Ireland 322,856 Scotland 1,253,284 Wales 578,917

E: "Oh, fair Scotland, stay with us. We're better together, stronger in a union. Don't leave us!"
S: "Um... not sure that's a great idea, but 'kay."
E: "Now that we're staying together, we're leaving the European Union."
S: "Wait, what? We want to stay in the EU. What happened to better together, stronger united?"
E: "HAHAHAH! Good one, weren't it? We have more people than you. We're outta here."
S: "WHERE'S MY F@$*ING CLAYMORE?"


At one moment the difference dropped to 240 thousands and then jumped to 450 thousand and now to over 480...


Norwich voted 56.2% remain. We haven't scared them out of EU apparently...


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Wales has been oppressed by England for 100s of years. They and Scotland can revolt together against England.


A bit over 50% of Welsh who voted, voted leave. Gwynned still counts its votes but it won't push Welsh above 50% anyway.


Drejk wrote:
Really this applies to lots of people around the world...

And not just for economics.


Treppa wrote:

Wales is voting with England, those *#^*@*#@s!

Maybe they have the Stockholm Syndrome.

I considered commenting to that effect before you added that...


Current data:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 71.6% turnout (Dang, look at that turnout!)
Leave: 11,737,880 England 9,661,187 N. Ireland 330,783 Scotland 917,003 Wales 828,907
Stay: 10,989,699 England 8,303,243 N. Ireland 408,744 Scotland 1,540,882 Wales 736,830


Unless something very unusual happens with the remaining results, it seems the Brexit option will emerge victorious. The trending advantage has been too consistent to break without some demographic oddity I'm not foreseeing.


Yes, and it's England remaining to be counted. They have been pretty decisively Leave.

Dark Archive

Yeah 325/382 have been counted and so far it looks like the UK is gone...

Dark Archive

332/382:

Leave: 14,605,522
Remain: 13,661,500


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Leave? Ugh. The stock market is about to get rocky.

Edit: I really think Scotland and Ireland should now vote on leaving the UK and joining the EU.


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Pathfinder Maps, Pathfinder Accessories, Starfinder Society Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber

Ireland is already a member of the EU. Perhaps you're thinking of Northern Ireland


Pillbug Toenibbler wrote:

Leave? Ugh. The stock market is about to get rocky.

Edit: I really think Scotland and Ireland should now vote on leaving the UK and joining the EU.

It's complicated. Either way it will cause problems for them...

What could North Ireland do? Become independent state? Would they join the rest of Ireland after so long period of conflict within Northern Ireland about being or not in UK? Split the Northern Ireland between Ireland and UK?


The irish know a thing or two about leaving the brits. Results were... mixed.


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Last update, because it looks like it'll be wrapped up in an hour:
Electorate: 46,501,241 with 71.9% turnout (Dang, look at that turnout!)
BeLeave: 15,882,960 England 13,660,624 N. Ireland 349,442 Scotland 1,018,322 Wales 854,572
Bremain: 14,753,634 England 11,966,384 N. Ireland 440,437 Scotland 1,661,191 Wales 772,347

Not that it would have made a difference, but whylt thll flyylllk, Wales?


Well, the pro-EU/leave-EU split in Northern Ireland would make splitting Northern Ireland between Ireland and UK easy... Except for Belfast of course.


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Scotland could leave and take Northern Ireland with it as a colony.

What?

Edit:

Sinn Fein is urging Ireland to unite as an independent country.
SNP is continuing to talk second independence referendum.

The pound has fallen to its lowest since 1985.


I don't expect any major changes now. Time to bed.


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*sighs deeply*

Well, congrats, UK. And EU. It will be very interesting to see where this goes. It's going to hit the UK hard, that's for certain. It will also probably dump the EU in a bad place. The UK has been a good part of it. The open question is if anyone in the EU will hear the message: Don't try to shift power from the national parliaments to the EU. So many in the EU joined a free trade union - and got an overbearing political union.

Before the Lisbon treaty, there was referendum after referendum saying no to further EU integration. The treaty shut down that option, giving the union the right to integrate without local consent.

On balance, the EU is probably a good thing. But it gives rise to some 50-80% of national laws, making it very questionable in democratic terms. It can come as no surprise that this was not going to be popular. I believe this result could have been avoided, but most did not see the danger, and many who did didn't care. It is a poor way to make policy.

Unless the EU starts listening to the message sent, expect more to follow.


Interesting point though, the referendum is not binding for parliament and a majority of the MPs seem to be against leaving the EU.
It wouldn't be the first time the politicians went against their voters.

Source for those who speak german:
welt.de

Scarab Sages

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Are we certain some people didn't vote in favor simply because they thought "Brexit" sounded like something they'd want to put on their morning toast?

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Companion, Pathfinder Accessories Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber

The EU was originally created to prevent a new war between its members. It has been so successful at this that its people forgot that war in Europe was even a possibility. Hence this result

Note that it succeeded in this by constantly finding compromises between its various members' ideologies. Not by sticking to a single one such as the free trade only or the full political or fiscal union ideas. Even though both have proponents that will tell you that their favorite view was the one that was not implemented strongly enough.

The sad truth is that economical crises breed mistrust which strengthens nationalism and communautarism. Which are prime breeding grounds for war.

What happens next ? I expect intense diplomatic activity spearheaded by France and Germany to prevent rocking the EU boat even further. And then designing a special status for the UK so that economically speaking things stay mostly the same while it will officially not be part of the EU anymore. Which should not be that difficult considering the many exceptions it already benefited from

So bad news, real possibility of yet another financial crisis, but not the end of the world. Not yet


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There are several things about this result that make me uneasy. One is the aggressive nature of the Russians under Putin and how that will be affected by the perceived weakness of the EU after this vote - particularly if the Dutch and others follow the UK's example. Another is that one of the US Presidential candidates is no fan of NATO, possibly further weakening European security. And another is the independence movements for N. Ireland and Scotland, which can further fragment the UK. It seems an extraordinarily poor time to weaken the EU.

One thing I have noticed watching the BBC is that people (politicians and experts) are either ecstatically happy or doom and gloom depressed. This leads me to think that nobody has a deep understanding of all the implications of this vote. Reactions are too simplistic, not nuanced enough.

So yeah, a wee bit jittery about this one.


Do you live in the UK, Treppa?


Sharoth wrote:
Do you live in the UK, Treppa?

Nope, a few hours west of there. I'm really interested in hearing from UK citizens about how things are there. My thoughts are strictly blue-sky.

That said, I'm only 2nd generation here in the US, so ties to the Old Country are pretty strong.

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