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I used to be disgusted at how unlucky a roller I was. No one believed me, so I said I'd prove it -- had another person jot down the result every time I rolled a d20, and at the end of the game we looked at the numbers.
I remembered rolling pretty much all 2s, 3s, 4s, and an occasional 6-8. The numbers on the page, on the other hand, when sorted, had a more or less even distribution from 1-20. I thought they were lying. "When did I roll this 19?!" Answer: "For the Gather Information check to get rumors from the bartender." Me: "Oh, well, I wasn't thinking about that!"
Confirmation bias is an extremely powerful thing. If your whole group is convinced that this guy is a "lucky roller," you're priming yourselves to remember the good rolls, and dismiss the low ones as "flukes."
For sure, now as for the guy cheating, he is using other people's dice, multiple dice, and making a complicated throw up the dice roll, not a smooth back and forth and out in his hand, which I've seen a cheater pull.
Confirmation bias is very strong, and people can claim to be cursed if they get a few bad rolls at the worse time. Or the more usual, I roll great out of combat, but in I suck.
...since you've given enough conditions I can't see loaded dice or set techniques working - call your player a witch and prepare your local mob.Ooh, idea for a cartoon. (I miss "Dragonmirth".) SCENE: Typical landscape with castle in background. CHARACTERS: Knight and witch. Knight has hands on hips. Witch is holding up a d20 for inspection.)
Witch: I know it doesn't look like much, but it's the best familiar I've ever had.
Sounds straight out of an episode of Adventure Time.
Too many inconsistant things in this story. He feels bad about rolling so well but is not happy about using a dice app that solves the problem. Then you say you don't hide anything from him but there is the cursed sword.
Anyways, the dice tower should solve everything.
They decided to keep his secret...
Well they obviously didn't keep it very well...
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Maybe this guys luck is just because he rolls dice a lot at the table and gets poor rolls then. There is one guy at our store who has played Pathfinder for a long time and has only made 2 natural 1's on any d20 in game, one was an attack roll and the other was confirming a grapple. He does however, roll dice out of gameand gets ones and 5s and 3s but he uses those rolls and his overall luck is average. He rolls well on the rolls that matter. We have watched him carefully while rolling, had him use die rolling cups, and bounce dice of walls. He just is lucky. He also rolls a couple of different dice before his attack rolls to determine which die he will roll based on the highest roll.
Maybe this guys luck is just because he rolls dice a lot at the table and gets poor rolls then. There is one guy at our store who has played Pathfinder for a long time and has only made 2 natural 1's on any d20 in game, one was an attack roll and the other was confirming a grapple. He does however, roll dice out of gameand gets ones and 5s and 3s but he uses those rolls and his overall luck is average. He rolls well on the rolls that matter. We have watched him carefully while rolling, had him use die rolling cups, and bounce dice of walls. He just is lucky. He also rolls a couple of different dice before his attack rolls to determine which die he will roll based on the highest roll.
Um, no.
Whatever he did roll previously Does Not Matter for what he will roll. Ever. Whether you check only in game or not, ANY time period you check that contains enough rolls WILL end up with a normal average result. The only thing this does not apply is if he manipulates the die rolls somehow. You can't "preroll" the bad results away (roll dice until you have rolled very low in a long sequence to prepare it for rolling high next time), you can't do it evolution-style (start with a hundred d20, remove every one that rolls a 20, stop when you have one that has not rolled a 20 in dozens of rolls). Nothing. If the dice are good, and he isn't cheating, the normal result distribution WILL apply.
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I tend to be exceptionally logical and focused on science about most things, but dice rolling is one of those things that its always hard not to believe in luck even if I know most of that is likely perception. In my experience there is balance to it, but a lot of it feels like you are lucky or have terrible luck when you have a streak that falls in a certain way.
For example, it seems like I always roll amazingly when I am a DM, but I can't roll anything when I'm a player. We have one of the guys in the group who seems to crit non stop in combat, but can't make a saving throw to save his life(literally). One of the guys sucks all around in combat, but seems to always be ridiculous when skills come into play.
Sure its all just probability and luck, but sometimes that lands in a way where it feels like someone is exceptionally fortunate with their rolls just because the ones where it doesn't work out so well aren't in moments where it matters as much.
Tell that to this guy because it seems to work for him
This is most likely the solution to the puzzle.
Too many inconsistant things in this story. He feels bad about rolling so well but is not happy about using a dice app that solves the problem. Then you say you don't hide anything from him but there is the cursed sword.
Anyways, the dice tower should solve everything.
Taking away the feel of rolling the dice is cruel, especially if one of the reasons he rocks up to the game, is to roll some dice.
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I used to be disgusted at how unlucky a roller I was. No one believed me, so I said I'd prove it -- had another person jot down the result every time I rolled a d20, and at the end of the game we looked at the numbers.
I remembered rolling pretty much all 2s, 3s, 4s, and an occasional 6-8. The numbers on the page, on the other hand, when sorted, had a more or less even distribution from 1-20. I thought they were lying. "When did I roll this 19?!" Answer: "For the Gather Information check to get rumors from the bartender." Me: "Oh, well, I wasn't thinking about that!"
Confirmation bias is an extremely powerful thing. If your whole group is convinced that this guy is a "lucky roller," you're priming yourselves to remember the good rolls, and dismiss the low ones as "flukes."
I had this problem and did the same thing. It turned out I was a standard deviation and a half below average in my rolls.
Then I investigated my d20s with precise instruments. They were substantially warped, but in a way that was not obvious to casual inspection. (imagine fitting a d20 into a cube; mine would prefer to sit in a rhombus-sided box)
I got new dice.
No more problem.
For sure, now as for the guy cheating, he is using other people's dice, multiple dice, and making a complicated throw up the dice roll, not a smooth back and forth and out in his hand, which I've seen a cheater pull.
Confirmation bias is very strong, and people can claim to be cursed if they get a few bad rolls at the worse time. Or the more usual, I roll great out of combat, but in I suck.
Throwing the die up in the air does not mean the guy is a cheater. I have seen just as many people throw the dice different ways and come up with different rolls. Everyone has tried something different hoping they will get the right method. But their really isn't one.
The funny part about this whole thread is the Dice Rollers. People ask about using them at the table and there is a resounding "NO!". People don't want these dice rollers at the table because they are not real dice. I think this is the other reason this guy (assuming he is real and assuming his story is real) doesn't want to use one.
If He is a dice gambler as has been described, then he would be comfortable with dice in his hand. If I was asked to use a dice machine or the guy next to me to roll the dice FOR me? No WAY! Now, if it was like in a James Bond movie, and he had some beautiful lady roll the dice for him (sorry just using an example) then, perhaps.
I have gamed with a guy that rolled high in another game system. It was enough to kill characters with ease, so to have a guy roll 20's a lot I don't find it difficult.
You guys play fantasy games and you find THIS hard to handle?
So... All that should be done is hire a beautiful James Bond foil to roll his dice? I wonder if that would be considered prostitution...
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Hmmm...either physics and probability do not work the way scientists and casinos have relied on for centuries, or your observation and/or reporting of your friend’s luck is flawed.
No advice needed.
I roll well with dice myself and none of my friends will let me near a deck of cards. Some people just fall outside the curve. We are the outliers and sometimes it sucks. I'm not even allowed to play mtg with my friends anymore. But everytime there is a local tournament I get dragged along. Just so I can win for them..... ~wanders off muttering about stupid landfall decks~
Just to check, you guys do confirm Crits via normal rules right?
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I am sure they did, a good number of months ago.
If he was cheating we would have caught him by now. We have set the game aside and made him roll a variety of dice while watching everything he does. There's nothing special about the way he grabs the dice or throws them. They hit the table and roll and he keeps critting most of the time. It even happens when he DMs.
It's not just a problem for us. It's gotten to the point that he feels bad about critting and apologizes every time it happens now. Not a happy, laughing apology, but a *sigh* and a genuinely disappointed "I'm sorry." After 5 years of gaming with him, he sounds like he's on the verge of quitting because his lucky rolling is causing problems.
Edit: Aw Crikes. It's an older thread I commented on that was resurrected. Well, I'll leave my post, but they probably already resolved this thing Loong ago. now just curious on what happened with the dice tower and such.
First posting before edit: No offense, but it sounds like he's cheating to me.
What cinch's it is what you stated about the dice rolling ap. With that he rolls normal.
That indicates it's not raw luck, but cheating with the die.
This is actually rather easy to do.
I'm surprised at his luck in gambling, unless it's a small operation and they don't institute controls.
A Basic control is to have him roll the dice at least 6 feet on a hard surface, it has to hit a back wall and be reflected.
It's far harder to beat the system this way. Casinos use it regularly. You can still cheat, but it's a LOT harder to cheat with that.
Casinos will have trained eyes for the very VERY few that can cheat the system one you use the tables with a back wall reflection. It's a pretty effective way to stop the cheats, but not completely, sometimes.
I can cheat pretty regularly (I don't, but could to a limited degree if I wanted to) with dice with no hitting it off the wall.
My first advice is to make him roll across the table against a wall and have them bounce back first to see if his luck still holds, or if he's regulated back to normal.
On the otherhand, people suggested dice towers. They seem pretty effective and I have NO idea how to cheat on a dice tower or if it's even possible.
No, no, this is far worse than mere cheating. This is the guy I always knew existed. For years I've been dogged by "statistical probability clustering" - any d20 I roll comes up a 2, 3, or 6. I always knew that somewhere in the universe some other guy was getting constant 15s, 18s and 19s in order to maintain the overall statistical perfection of the probability curve. Beg your friend to give up RPGs so I can get the ability to roll like a normal human being again! Has he no mercy? My followers are more help in combat than I!
You must be my twin O.O
i usually compensate for bad rolls by making characters so pathetic that it doesnt matter, or so highly optimized that it balances out....