New DUNE movie greenlit from director of ARRIVAL and BLADE RUNNER 2049

[thejeff]

Quark Blast wrote:

The Delta variant is more communicable, not more deadly once contracted. Plus there aren't that many people left who've not been vaccinated or haven't already come down with COVID-19 or who are over age 20. So that means we'll pass the peak before the end of the month*. Dune is a late October release presently and well outside the current surge window.

* More leaf reading

Plenty of people outside the current hot spots and if you subscribe to the various seasonal arguments we should start hitting the next, more northern surge around then or a little after.

[Quark Blast]

thejeff wrote:

Quark Blast wrote:

The Delta variant is more communicable, not more deadly once contracted. Plus there aren't that many people left who've not been vaccinated or haven't already come down with COVID-19 or who are over age 20. So that means we'll pass the peak before the end of the month*. Dune is a late October release presently and well outside the current surge window.

* More leaf reading

Plenty of people outside the current hot spots and if you subscribe to the various seasonal arguments we should start hitting the next, more northern surge around then or a little after.

Well, we'll know in four weeks at the outside, maybe the trend will be clearly down in just a couple of weeks.

In theory you could be right, and usually I'm the pessimistic one, but in this case I think there simply aren't enough uninfected/unvaccinated people left to keep the current wave going much longer or to give us a 5th wave later this year.

[thejeff]

Quark Blast wrote:

thejeff wrote:

Quark Blast wrote:

The Delta variant is more communicable, not more deadly once contracted. Plus there aren't that many people left who've not been vaccinated or haven't already come down with COVID-19 or who are over age 20. So that means we'll pass the peak before the end of the month*. Dune is a late October release presently and well outside the current surge window.

* More leaf reading

Plenty of people outside the current hot spots and if you subscribe to the various seasonal arguments we should start hitting the next, more northern surge around then or a little after.

Well, we'll know in four weeks at the outside, maybe the trend will be clearly down in just a couple of weeks.

In theory you could be right, and usually I'm the pessimistic one, but in this case I think there simply aren't enough uninfected/unvaccinated people left to keep the current wave going much longer or to give us a 5th wave later this year.

We'll now in a few weeks if this surge is slowing, we won't know about the potential for another one for a while after that.

[Quark Blast]

The reviews for this movie coming out of the Venice Film Festival have it living up to the hype. Shang-Chi is setting the record for this weekend by an estimated +250%. And with Florida apparently on the COVID surge down-slope, and northern states about three weeks behind, the box office for a late October wide release is looking hopeful. Only a variant virus not blocked by vaccines and/or resistance left over from a prior variant infection will derail this train.

[JoelF847]

Quark Blast wrote:

The reviews for this movie coming out of the Venice Film Festival have it living up to the hype. Shang-Chi is setting the record for this weekend by an estimated +250%. And with Florida apparently on the COVID surge down-slope, and northern states about three weeks behind, the box office for a late October wide release is looking hopeful. Only a variant virus not blocked by vaccines and/or resistance left over from a prior variant infection will derail this train.

The reviews I read were pretty mixed. Great world building, but pretty weak in the story department, especially in the back half of the movie.

[Pan]

Some of the negative reviews I read where taking issue with Dune part 1 not being a complete story, or ending at an ideal story point. This reminds me of some of the reviews that dogged Lord of the Rings because the fellowship movie didn't end definitively. This might be one of those things that works better holistically than in parts.

They also had the typical Villeneuve response of style over substance that critics like to use on his films. They're not always wrong about that.

[Thomas Seitz]

All I know is Shang Chi is coming out gangbusters right now...

[Quark Blast]

What Pan said. When the reviewers seem to have missed that the movie is part 1 of 2 (at least) I have to wonder what they were doing while the movie was playing.

Those caveats aside, things are looking Peter Jackson's LotR adaptation greatness at this point.

@TS --> Hells Yeah!

[Thomas Seitz]

Still think Shang-Chi will out perform this....

[Ares04]

I’m super stoked about Dune coming out, but I liked the Lynch version too. I just love the world

[Orville Redenbacher]

Thomas Seitz wrote:

Still think Shang-Chi will out perform this....

Can you take the Marvel sh#t to an appropriate thread?

[Quark Blast]

Best Dune 2021 Review so far:
Dune 2021 First Impressions
by Geek Culture

[Bjørn Røyrvik]

Finally got around to seeing it after my sprained ankle prevented me from attending the premier.

On the whole, I'm quite impressed. It's not perfect, but good. The visuals and effects are flawless. Villeneuve knows his craft and I cannot think of a better director for this movie. The actors are well chosen and do their roles justice. The action looks good, for the most part. A tiny bit of messey stuff, but it makes sense in the context of the story it tells.

There are a few issues. By necessity it leaves out a lot of stuff, and while some of the world-building stuff could be left out without much issue, other stuff is left out that is actually important to the themes of the novel. It may be that part two will bring these up later, so I won't make a final judgement now, but so far it does seem like the movie is dumbing down the book.
I have some lesser complaints, like how Thufir Hawat and Mentats in general are handled. The stained lips are gone, with only a little tattoo in their place and no explanation at all about what they are and how important they are to society. This is probably due to needing to make the movie shorter than Jodowrosky's 14-hour script, but it still irked me every time important setting elements were left unexplained.

[Thomas Seitz]

I will probably wait and watch this on HBO Max...

[Orville Redenbacher]

They ran a series of promos on Monday Night Football this week. A new teaser trailer and one oddly made up of NFL players with Freemen eyes dodging sand worms with a football aflame as it enters Dune's atmo...

Still cant wait! First movie back in the theater for me.

[Thomas Seitz]

I saw that promo. I sort of laughed. Also, found out my mom read the books. Which is weird since she's never been that much for pop culture, much less science fiction.

[Quark Blast]

thejeff wrote:

Quark Blast wrote:

thejeff wrote:

Quark Blast wrote:

The Delta variant is more communicable, not more deadly once contracted. Plus there aren't that many people left who've not been vaccinated or haven't already come down with COVID-19 or who are over age 20. So that means we'll pass the peak before the end of the month*. Dune is a late October release presently and well outside the current surge window.

* More leaf reading

Plenty of people outside the current hot spots and if you subscribe to the various seasonal arguments we should start hitting the next, more northern surge around then or a little after.

Well, we'll know in four weeks at the outside, maybe the trend will be clearly down in just a couple of weeks.

In theory you could be right, and usually I'm the pessimistic one, but in this case I think there simply aren't enough uninfected/unvaccinated people left to keep the current wave going much longer or to give us a 5th wave later this year.

We'll now in a few weeks if this surge is slowing, we won't know about the potential for another one for a while after that.

The infection rate is indeed continuing to fall as predicted. If we can avoid another variant as newly infectious as the Delta, then we should be good to go with a blowout box office take for Dune. Dune has already surpassed $100M with limited global release and is showing universally strong followup interest in all markets it's currently released in. The box office has beaten expectations soundly in every market and the week-over-week drop off has been far less than expected.

[Thomas Seitz]

I still think Shang-Chi is going to hold the record...

[Quark Blast]

We'll know in another couple of months, maybe sooner.
:D

[Orville Redenbacher]

Yeap, I could see Dune becoming sci-fi "lord of the rings".

[dirtypool]

I could also see it becoming 1984's Dune.

[Pan]

dirtypool wrote:

I could also see it becoming 1984's Dune.

I dont. At worst it will end up like Bladerunner 2049.

[JoelF847]

Thomas Seitz wrote:

I still think Shang-Chi is going to hold the record...

Pretty sure Venom 2 is on the way to break it already

[Thomas Seitz]

Well even so, Joel, I'm not convinced this Dune will do the numbers some believe (IE QB). I do think dirtypool and/or Pan could be right. Though I'm going with dirtypool mostly because I'm not sure Pan is right about the projection...

[JoelF847]

Thomas Seitz wrote:

Well even so, Joel, I'm not convinced this Dune will do the numbers some believe (IE QB). I do think dirtypool and/or Pan could be right. Though I'm going with dirtypool mostly because I'm not sure Pan is right about the projection...

I think that some if not many movies released this year are doing better than they would in other years, because here's not as much releasing. That could be countered by people not willing to go to a theater still, like myself. I'm getting closer, but probably won't until there's a kids vaccine approved and the local vaccine mandate is updated to include ages covered by it. Even then, not sure I feel like watching an entire movie wearing a mask when I have plenty to watch things at home without a mask.

[Thomas Seitz]

Well if it helps when I went to see Shang-Chi, there were only...6 people total in my theater. But then again I had ended up waiting for Shang-Chi to come out 4 weeks after it's initial release.

[Quark Blast]

Pan wrote:

dirtypool wrote:

I could also see it becoming 1984's Dune.

I dont. At worst it will end up like Bladerunner 2049.

It's already on a path to exceed Blade Runner 2049.

Dune '84 was an agonizing* flop with horrendous FX even for it's time.

Venom and No Time to Die will come in behind Villeneuve's Dune.

* According to eyewitnesses.

[Orville Redenbacher]

Lot of folks around the (virtual) office are pretty excited for Bond and Dune. "Finally movies not about super heroes..."

[Tristan d'Ambrosius]

Quark Blast wrote:

Venom and No Time to Die will come in behind Villeneuve's Dune.

Worldwide or just domestic?

[Thomas Seitz]

Orville,

I mean I'm semi-excited even if I am a Marvel fan boy for last Daniel Craig bond. Also still not sure where QB is getting his numbers other than his imagination...

[Quark Blast]

The numbers are coming from the various box office returns to date.

[Tristan d'Ambrosius]

Which hold important in this case but not others.

[dirtypool]

Quark Blast wrote:

The numbers are coming from the various box office returns to date.

The numbers you're referring to (108M) show that as of this moment in time it hasn't even made its budget back, which Blade Runner 2049 did but 84 Dune didn't.

So, right now, it's on track to be 1984 Dune.

[Quark Blast]

Exactly!

And when those numbers include box office returns for the US, let alone China, it'll be stomping everything on the market and 1984 Dune will remain the unpleasant memory it already is.

[dirtypool]

Quark Blast wrote:

Exactly!

And when those numbers include box office returns for the US, let alone China, it'll be stomping everything on the market and 1984 Dune will remain the unpleasant memory it already is.

Uh huh. It’s been out in every country but the US and China for a month and it is still 60 million away from breaking even. You’re being VERY optimistic with your predictions.

Good luck with that.

[Quark Blast]

Happy to oblige, in fact I'll gladly post here how right I am the first week in November or so.

[dirtypool]

I’m sure you’ll claim you’re right whether you are or not.

Just like always.

[Thomas Seitz]

if this movie makes an addition 60 million I'll eat a beholder raw...

[Werthead]

The film's tracking looks reasonable, way ahead of BLACK WIDOW and significantly ahead of SHANG-CHI. It probably won't put a dent in NO TIME TO DIE's numbers though, and seems to be holding steady against VENOM 2.

We'll find out what happens when it hits the US and UK. Anything north of a $50 million opening weekend is probably solid, much less would be alarming unless the film had a long tail (and it's holding surprisingly steady in overseas markets where it's now entering a third or fourth week).

The unknown factor is the film's presence on HBO Max, which could either not have a massive dent in the box office or completely dilute it. Also, the fact that people have been talking about the movie forever before it even comes out in the US might lessen interest.

There seems to be widespread rumours that WB are very happy with the international performance of the movie so far and have basically unofficially "amber-lit" the sequel behind the scenes, and only an absolute massive bombing in the domestic market will stop Part 2 from happening.

[Thomas Seitz]

Well I guess some of us think the tracking might be over-rated on this film, especially since I can get on HBO Max instead of going to the theaters like I did for Shang-Chi and probably will do for Spider-man.

[Quark Blast]

It's funny that the Frost Giant is posting essentially the same conclusion as QB without all the personal flack back at'm.

:D

[dirtypool]

Werthead wrote:

It probably won't put a dent in No Time to Die's numbers

and

Quark Blast wrote:

Venom and No Time to Die will come in behind Villeneuve's Dune.

are in fact NOT essentially the same conclusion.

[Purple Dragon Knight]

Just saw the Gilles Villeneuve interview on Stephen Colbert. Gilles mentioned that the new Dune is an hommage to the big screen, and the scale of the shots is enormous, with loads of details in the background and major theatrical big sound. He said that 'if it's safe to do so wherever they live, folks should see it on the big screen - that they wouldn't be disappointed'.

I'm planning to go see it at the theatre! my first visit in nearly two years! (I must make a tactical visit at a time of low attendance though... I wonder which day would be the absolute least attended... hmmm...)

[Werthead]

Yeah, it's clear at this point that DUNE has done pretty well internationally, it's the domestic US performance (and the UK/ROI performance, which is reasonably important overseas market, as well as China) which has a big question mark hanging over it due to the HBO Max co-release. Despite the film's massive scope and scale and reportedly being aimed at the big screen, it means that if anyone has even a 1% doubt about going to the cinema, they have another option immediately to hand, whilst for Bond and SHANG-CHI they don't. That can either have a big impact - as they seem to think it did for BLACK WIDOW - or a much lesser one, as apparently it did for GODZILLA VS KONG.

The suspicion seems to be that the apparently late decision to retitle the movie from DUNE to DUNE PART ONE suggests that Warner Brothers have committed to making the sequel even if the film only barely breaks even over its production budget, due to the insane situation it's being released under. That dramatically reduces the target box office from the film. That's a reverse of the 1978 version of LORD OF THE RINGS, where Ralph Bakshi delivered the film with a title card saying LORD OF THE RINGS: PART ONE and the studio's marketing surveys and so on (although such things were in their infancy back then) suggested the film wasn't going to do well so they took the PART ONE off just before release (to Bakshi's annoyance).

[Quark Blast]

Potentially competing films have staggered releases specifically so that they don't gouge each other's profits - most of the take happens early on so sometimes only a week or two is needed to turn the dents into mere scratches.

[Thomas Seitz]

The reason I don't chop the Frost Giant in half is because he's being a) reasonable and b) not a jack-off.

I'm more convinced because while COVID numbers in the US are on the decline, not everyone will be willing to go when the option of seeing streaming seems more appealing to some.

[dirtypool]

It isn’t a great sign that No Time to Die’s one weekend domestic take was the same as the five week worldwide total of Dune.

[Thomas Seitz]

Yeah...I mean I hadn't checked but not good is apt.

[Orville Redenbacher]

No Time to Die aint got a stream option either. Probably 25 mill opening weekend for Dune. It will need word of mouth to keep folks going. I hope better but thats what im seeing.

[Quark Blast]

Orville Redenbacher wrote:

No Time to Die aint got a stream option either. Probably 25 mill opening weekend for Dune. It will need word of mouth to keep folks going. I hope better but thats what im seeing.

I'll draw my line in the sand at $50 million minimum for the first week. Maybe even the first three days.

Less than two weeks to see how gloriously right I am*!

I can hardly wait.
:D

* Yet again!