I'm gonna take a guess here that the reason you find the setting confusing is because you are trying to absorb all of it, which frankly isn't necessary. Golarion is a kitchen sink setting where you can find a whole bunch of different thematic set pieces for all sorts of genres. But those set pieces tend to be, well, set, and stick to their own borders. You don't need to understand Ustalav to run an adventure in Varisia.
There are a couple of big events with geopolitical implications that cross boundaries, namely a couple new nations and the Whispering Tyrant coming back. But those can be summed up by a sentence each and there are plenty of adventures it won't actually matters for.
You guessed correctly.
Sandpoint was designed specifically for simplicity. It's a great place to start. The Sandpoint Hinterlands are rather crowded, but it's all good for a starter setting.
Seems Sandpoint is the place to go.