GM_DBH's Curse Of The Crimson Throne

Game Master DBH

Although discovering a cure for the plague and saving Korvosa are important accomplishments, another even more significant development occurs.

The fact that agents of the queen—Doctor Davaulus and his Queen’s Physicians—were revealed to be in league with the foul creators of blood veil, and worse, seem to have been involved in propagating its spread rather than seeking its cure, is dangerous knowledge.

Although you cannot directly confront Queen Ileosa at this time with accusations of engineering a plague to shape the city into something more to her liking, word of the crown’s involvement in the outbreak spreads as soon as it’s made apparent that Reiner Davaulus and the Queen’s Physicians were corrupt.

The queen’s official stance is that the charming doctor duped her, and that his actions and those of his masked minions do not accurately reflect her desires.

The Gray Maidens claim to have had no knowledge of the true goings-on in the Hospice chambers below, Dr. Davaulus is publicly branded a traitor to the city posthumously.

Without hard evidence that she was involved, the majority of Korvosa’s citizens find it difficult to believe that their queen, however vain and unpleasant, could be the source of such an evil. Most of Korvosa’s citizens are simply thankful that the scourge of blood veil has passed,
and are eager to get back to their lives.

The city is too wounded to contemplate rebellion. Yet unrest grows. As the city continues to recover, the rumors of the queen’s involvement spread.

Unfortunately, so do her resources. The Gray Maidens become more
prominent on the street, and progressively oppressive laws and edicts begin to appear.

On a more pleasant note for you The Soldados flee the city for greener pastures , but before they leave, they might happily pay you a visit to thank you for saving Brienna one last time before heading west toward their new lives in Magnimar.

Big setup to read carefully.

Korvosa has survived the hideous plague, but not unscathed. The streets are dull and muted, strangely empty except for when markets quietly open. People seem to be more interested in staying home than going out, and when they do emerge, they shuffle quickly to their destinations and conduct their business swiftly.

The Order of the Nail has withdrawn from Korvosa, retreating to Citadel Vraid for the first time in Korvosa’s history. Some whisper the Hellknights are planning a full-scale invasion of Korvosa to seize control, but more knowledgeable sources know that dozens of Hellknights perished or failed to uphold their charges during the recent events, and that Lictor Severs has recalled his troops to punish the city for these failures.

City temples have their hands full tracking down the last remaining pockets of sick residents and disposing of the dead, while the Acadamae continues to keep its doors shut and withhold its resources for the duration, hoping to wait out these troubled times.

The Sable Company is falling apart, and the Korvosan Guard has taken staggering hits to both its personnel and its morale. Field Marshal Kroft talks about recruitment drives to replenish the ranks, but
helping Korvosa recover remains the primary goal—one made difficult by Queen Ileosa’s reduced support.

Yet the queen is not ignoring Korvosa. The energy and support once lent to the Korvosan Guard and the Sable Company is now funneled into the enigmatic Gray Maidens. Even as the number of Korvosan Guards on the
streets dwindles, the presence of these armored warrior women increases.

Regular patrols of Gray Maidens march along the major streets, and rumors spread that strike forces are breaking into homes and buildings reputed to house those who voiced dissenting opinions of the monarchy.

Old Korvosa remains under a tight quarantine, with troops of Gray Maidens stationed along the Narrows and patrolling the Jeggare in swift barges to ensure that no one gets off Endrin Isle. The plumes of smoke as buildings burn and the periodic roars of riots that echo down from
Old Korvosa alone are enough to warn away the curious.

=====================================================================

Marshall Croft was called away to attend a public announcement by the Queen?

Marshall Croft returned, stunned and badly shaken!

She recounts what happened in a private meeting with you.

Although the announcement of her address gave Korvosa only an hour or so to prepare, a large crowd nonetheless gathered to hear her words—particularly as it’s now public knowledge that Dr. Davaulus was behind
the disease.

Attending this address at the queen’s side were her bodyguard Sabina Merrin (clad in her breathtaking and intimidating suit of Gray Maiden armor), her new advisor and ally Togomor (who she announced has taken up the duties of castle seneschal), commander of the
Korvosan Guard Cressida Kroft, and the commandant of the Sable Company Marcus Endrin.

In the days to follow, many speak of how ill at ease Marcus appeared, as if they knew at the time what the desperate commandant had planned all along.

As the address began, Queen Ileosa (wearing her new fang-adorned crown) announced triumphantly that the plague has been defeated,
The queen went on to report that the Order of the Nail has shown its true colors and fled like cowards into Citadel Vraid. Worse, both the Korvosan Guard and the Sable Company have suffered terrible losses over the past weeks.

Neither group is fully capable of continuing as Korvosa’s protectors, and thus, to shore up this fault, Queen Ileosa names the Gray Maidens as the official new protectors of Korvosa, appointing Sabina Merrin as the city’s new general.

As the ripple of concerned whispers spread, Queen Ileosa turned her attention to the Sable Company. Citing the fact that the care and feeding of the company’s hippogriff mounts places too great a strain
on the city’s coffers (an exaggeration); the company’s relative ncompetence in helping to deal with the recent unrest (not so much of an exaggeration); and the fact that the company’s commander, Seneschal Neolandus Kalepopolis, fled the city rather than stay by her side in
her time of need, Ileosa has decided to disband the organization and seize its holdings. At this point, she asks Commandant Endrin to step forth to surrender his badge of office.

As Endrin did so, he trembled. He reached for his badge, but instead of handing it over, he threw it at the queen, striking her cheek. Everyone (queen included) was shocked into paralysis for a few moments, long enough for Endrin to bellow out, “Your shameful reign ends now! Korvosa will be free again!”

An instant later, his bow was in his hands, aimed at the still-frozen queen. Endrin fires and his aim is true. The arrow struck Queen Ileosa in the right temple, sinking deep into her skull.

Yet she did not fall.

With incredible speed, she regained her composure and yanked the arrow from her skull. Before blood from the wound has time to run all the way down to her jaw, she’s was standing before Endrin. Her free hand whipped out and seized him by the throat, lifting him off the ground and holding him up for all to see.

An instant later, she stabbed Endrin’s own arrow up under his jaw and out the side of his face with a spray of blood.
As Endrin’s body crumpled to the ground and Ileosa imperiously shook his blood from her hand, she cried out in a strong, clear voice, “This shall be the fate of all enemies of Korvosa! Mark well his punishment! It is only the first!”

A moment later, Togomor stepped forward, taking Ileosa’s hand and teleporting her back into the castle. The resulting riot was quelled quickly and brutally by the Gray Maidens.

Field Marshal Cressida Kroft fled back to Citadel Volshyenek, stunned and horrified by what she witnessed, and knowing that things have indeed taken a turn for the worse in her city.

I made a mistake. You didn't get a note to visit Vencarlo. This is the setup you should have received. I blame the amount of text I had to wade through! :)

You have seen for yourself how the numbers of the Guard have dropped throughout the plague and they haven't been replaced. Now the Citadel is understaffed and there are no new recruits training.

Marshall Croft calls you to a meeting. She looks haggard and tired when you arrive; she ushers you into the central keep quickly, leading you into a smaller meeting room in the depths of the keep to a doorway that, when opened, reveals what appears to be a room filled with fog.

Beyond is a plain looking chamber with a single long table (on which sits
a small closed coffer) and enough chairs for you and herself. This chamber is protected by a permanent mage’s private sanctum.

“Korvosa is dying. No, strike that. Korvosa is being murdered. Killed by our queen. The evidence you’ve uncovered that links her to the plague is damning enough, but now that she’s disbanded the Sable Company and reallocated our own funding to the Gray Maidens, she’s more in control now
than ever. I dare not move against her, as my guards would be executed to the last fighter by her Gray Maidens before sundown. But she must be stopped. And I know of no one else but you to do this deed."

“Whatever foul magic the queen has wrapped herself in is obviously of the highest order. Endrin’s aim was true, and his shot should have dropped her. I had feared he was going to take matters into his own hands like this, but hoped he would find it within himself to find a better route. If only he could have waited."

“You see, just this morning, new information came to me. Vencarlo Orisini’s been one of my most trusted sources of information regarding the public; it’s hard for an officer of the Korvosan Guard to get honest opinions from the citizens, and Vencarlo’s observations on these topics have been a godsend, particularly since the plague started. When the queen quarantined Old Korvosa, I’d feared his messages would end, yet he managed to find ways to smuggle updates to me every day."

"Recently, he wrote of discovering something of vital importance regarding the queen. He mentions something about dark magic and a pact with a devil, but until the events of this morning, I found his claims difficult to believe. But even more astounding, he hinted he’d found a lead on Seneschal Kalepopolis, and implied the man might still be in hiding in Old Korvosa!"

“That was the last I heard from him. It’s been several days, and I’ve started to worry for his safety. The rumors about riots and gangs seizing control of entire neighborhoods in Old Korvosa are disturbing. Certainly, the plumes of smoke we all see rising from fires on the island are proof that as bad as things are elsewhere, they’re probably worse in Old Korvosa."

“I can see a time in the near future when the Korvosan Guard is disbanded as well. Even now I lack the resources to mount my own investigations. Which is where you come in. Trusting you may have been my best decision over the past several months, for your group holds the possibility of Korvosa’s salvation. I ask you to seek out Vencarlo in Old Korvosa, and to learn more of what he’s discovered about the nature of our queen’s increasingly violent and destructive turns of personality."

Ironically, you should actually be safer in Old Korvosa, since the queen’s quarantine has cut off the island entirely, and word on the street is that she plans on leaving it to rot. She won’t think to look for you there if you maintain a low profile and avoid confrontations with the Gray Maidens. Once you contact Vencarlo, we can only hope what
he’s discovered will suggest a course of action we can take to save the city!”

The Gray Maidens have been ordered to quarantine Old Korvosa, preventing anyone inside from leaving. Troops of Gray Maidens patrol the boardwalk along the northern side of North Point overlooking Old Korvosa, while
additional Gray Maidens stand watch atop the wall along North Point’s northern shore.

They confront anyone they spy trying to leave Old Korvosa, warning them to turn back. If this order is refused, they open fire on anyone who
continues to try to return to the city proper, either chasing them off or slaughtering them where they stand.

The Gray Maidens have also burned and wrecked all of the wooden bridges that cross the Narrows, leaving only the stone Jeggare Bridge as a physical link between Endrin Isle and the mainland.

However, while these measures are quite efficient at keeping the bulk of Old Korvosa’s citizens locked in, entering Old Korvosa is simple. The Gray Maidens take no such actions against anyone they spot entering Old
Korvosa, though.

If someone prefers to flee the city, they consider the departure of such an undesirable as simply one fewer agitator or troublemaker they have to deal with.

So, any preparations you wish to make before you head to Old Korvosa?

"Should we just cross the main bridge back into Old Korvosa?" Kayleigh asks the others. "We could always tell the Gray Maiden guards that we've been tasked with a job...maybe to hunt down a criminal. That sounds believable enough, but...it's not exactly a low-profile entrance if we're recognized."

I'll go through Kayleigh's spells prepared list to update that; I believe that's the only real preparation she needs. Oh, before I forget (again), it looks like the Agile trait Ariadne wanted on her armor isn't magic-related. Can we assume that she found an armorsmith to whip up a suit of armor for her? Kayleigh can use masterwork transformation and then add a +1 enchantment easily enough.

Sure, the Guard has their own armorer you can use.

Everyone else ready to get moving?

"Just tell 'em we're on a special detail. Which is true. Give the least information, let them make their own assumptions. Since they're not stopping people from going in, we don't really have to tell them much of anything."

Did we cure the blindness? Also is there anything anyone else wants to buy/keep? If not we can close out the loot.

Blindness was cured. You can move on to Old Korvosa as I believe everyone has picked up something from the armory.

Kayleigh carries along--in secret--one of the plaguebringer's masks. The healer doesn't don the protective item until the party's well out of sight from the Gray Maidens at the bridge.

"I agree with Vedika. When someone starts to give too many explanations, it means we need to ask more questions." Zahur shares.

Don't really have anything to do in preparation.

New map up top for navigating - Old Korvosa.

Crossing the bridge to get into Old korvosa is easy, you are watched, but no one hinders or talks to you as you do so.

Old Korvosa itself seems hapless and forlorn, the people desperate as they now live in this dying town.

As you enter the area from the bridge you see A flock of incongruously happy children singing a strange little rhyme as they gather around something in the middle of the street, “Headless, headless, that’s what you’ll be, brand-new dolls in the Emp’ror’s cemet’ry! Choppy, choppy, chop, the tall knife calls, waitin’ for the day for Korvosa to fall.”

One of the children has fashioned a crude guillotine from sticks and pegs, and the children are using it to behead a collection of dolls.

The map shows you the way to the Orsini academy. What are you doing now?

Kayleigh approaches the children, taking off her spooky mask before smiling warmly. "That's an interesting song--did you make it up yourself? And who's this 'Emperor' you mention?" The healer also asks if the blood veil ("That icky sickness that went around recently") is still a big problem for the inhabitants of the island.

Kayleigh Fairwind Diplomacy Check: 1d20 + 12 ⇒ (6) + 12 = 18

Assuming they answer her questions and don't try to kill her, Kayleigh will give each kiddo a couple of copper pieces to buy a treat.

Kayleigh would also like to stop by her rented flat to gather all her stuff there; maybe Vedika can put it in her handy haversack until we return to Zellara's place. Then on to Orsini Academy.

Brigita and children do not mix so she stands far enough away that she is there to help Kayleigh but not to scare the little things.

Much like Brigita, Zahur keeps his distance. Not because he doesn't like them, as he does very much, but he simply doesn't know how to interact with them for some reason.

The children look at Kayleigh with the amazement of the young. "The Emperor? He's the boss around here lady. He's got a palace in the old docks an he's always chopping peoples heads off! Chop chop!"

They quickly make the coppers given to them disappear into their ragged clothing.

While Kayleigh is talking to the bloodthirsty brats the rest of you can see what looks like a squad of thugs heading your way.

What are you doing?

When Kayleigh finishes speaking with the children, she returns to the others, spying the approaching gang only at the last second. She puts the mask back over her head and silently (but kinda creepily) stares at the men as they approach. She lets the others handle the engagement and any greetings or negotiations while trying to get a read on the group's intentions toward the party...after first muttering a quick prayer and casting a simple spell upon herself.

Kayleigh Fairwind Sense Motive Check (guidance): 1d20 + 16 + 1 ⇒ (18) + 16 + 1 = 35

Aridne also keeps a Plaguebringer's mask, which she swithes out for the helm of her Grey maiden's armor that she's had blackened, modified, and enhanced by Kayleigh, resulting in an impressive and intimidating image, enhanced by her cloak and red embellishments (Grey Maiden armor but in black/ the red is still red)

Removing the mask to stand nearby as Kayleigh speaks with the children, the battlemage keeps an eye out for the surrounding area, noting the advancing goons. Rolling her shoulders, she cracks her neck from side to side before also donning her mask.

knowledge local: 1d20 + 13 ⇒ (2) + 13 = 15

Brigita thinks about the 'Emperor' as what looks like street toughs come their way. The blacksmith with arms as thick is legs simply lifts her heavy two hander to her shoulder and says to the others "Those might know more."

The tone of her voice suggests the methods she might use to get the information out of them.

Use the Old korvosa streets map for this.

None of you have any knowledge of anyone calling themselves an 'Emperor' in old Korvosa?

The thugs, dressed in a motley assortment of gear swagger up to you , clearly expecting no resistance.

The one who obviously considers himself the leader demands "What are you doing intruding in the the Emperors domain?"

What are you doing?

Vedika smirks and waits for one of the really fearsome warriors in the team to make their position clear.

"We're here to check up on a friend after all the madness with the plague." Ariadne replies calmly, making no effort to remove her mask as she studies the gang of toughs.

Kayleigh bobs her masked head in agreement with Ariadne, looking very birdlike.

Ariadne's answer is greeted with sneers and scorn. "A likely story. Hand over your weapons now scum!"

The thugs seem used to obedience and wait for you to disarm.

What are you doing now?

With a shrug of her shoulders, Kayleigh removes the silver mace from her belt. One way or another, she'll be giving it to one of the thugs soon....

Vedika just sighs, draws her kukri, and licks it. It comes away with an oily, unwholesome sheen.

Ariadne simply nods at the speaker, having expected as much. Arcane sigils flare to life along the intricate detailing of her armor as she activates her defensive magic with but a thought, drawing her sword and pointing it at the leader.

"Come and take them!"

The Thugs look shocked by Ariadne's word but ready to attack.

Vedika & Zahur may act!

Vedika makes a slash at one of the thugs as he goes for his knife.

Kukri attack: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (15) + 7 = 22 (vs. flat-footed)
Kukri damage: 1d4 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 1 = 3
Sneak attack damage: 2d6 ⇒ (4, 2) = 6

Plus DC 14 Fort save or staggered for 1d4 rounds.

Can't edit the map, but would like to step 5ft. north.

"Weapons? I could beat your ass with a dead turkey." Zahur taunts as he draws his hook and proceeds to spin it.

Swift Action to activate Outslug Style

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (14) + 16 - 3 = 27 @Yellow
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (6) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 21

Disarm: 1d20 + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 ⇒ (17) + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 = 30 @Yellow

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (19) + 16 - 3 = 32 @Orange
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (10) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 25

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 11 - 3 ⇒ (17) + 11 - 3 = 25 @Yellow, should be flat-footed
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (5) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 20

Flurry (trip), risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 2 - 3 ⇒ (5) + 16 - 2 - 3 = 16 @Orange

AC: 23 (16 Tch) | CMB: +10*, CMD: 28*

Frick! Map is now editable.

Vedika moves up and slashes Orange.

fort save: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (10) + 8 = 18

Zahur wounds and disarms Yellow. He wounds and trips Orange.

Green yells Hey! when blood starts flying and moves up to swing at Vedika.

battleaxe: 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (1) + 9 = 10

Managing to hit the wall beside her.

Orange scrambles back to his feet.

AOO for Vedika.

Brigita, Ariadne & Kayeligh may now act! As Yellow is doing a runner on his turn. Zahur has nearly gutted him.

attacking yellow, she hasn't drank her mutagen yet
earthbreaker silver +1, B: 1d20 + 11 ⇒ (19) + 11 = 30
damage: 2d6 + 11 ⇒ (4, 4) + 11 = 19

Brig sees the man Zahur hit ready to run. Which would be fine, but rats like him will just get more friends to come after them. So without even a warning she strides forward and smashed him to the ground with her hammer.

Brigita ends Yellow.

Ariadne & Kayleigh.

Kayleigh moves up to support Vedika and Brigita in melee.

"You know--you could all just surrender and not take any more of a beating. I might even be convinced to treat your wounds; I'm a healer, after all."

Despite her deescalating words, the cleric of Milani has her morningstar ready and raised, ready to proceed with some thumping.

I'll throw in a Diplomacy check to try to change the thugs' beginning attitude, even though Kayleigh's fine with her friends beating the crap out of some soldiers of 'The Emperor.'

Kayleigh Fairwind Diplomacy Check (to change initial attitude): 1d20 + 12 ⇒ (4) + 12 = 16

Ariadne begins to stride forward, her free hand beginning a complex arcane pattern as she advances. "You were warned, even now as your fellows fall, know that you were given a chance...and wasted it." she says, the mask making her tone far more ominous.

Completing the spell, she extends her hand, sending out a blast of concussive force with stunning impact.

Stunning blast (ranged touch): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (5) + 9 = 14
Nonlethal: 3d6 ⇒ (3, 3, 5) = 11
DC 16 Fort save or stunned for 1 round

Intimidate: 1d20 ⇒ 18

I'm the bad cop

Kayleigh uses big words which fly over their heads.

Ariadne blasts orange. She says something mean that no one can hear.

Fort: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (17) + 8 = 25.

Red bellows in an attempt to seem fearsome and attacks Ariadne.

Battle axe: 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (4) + 9 = 13

He makes a breeze in the air but nothing more.

Zahur & Vedika can act!

Zahur & Vedika?

Vedika trades off with her foe (green).

Kukri attack: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (2) + 7 = 9

Wiff

Sorry, boards have been acting weird these days.

His hook still spinning, Zahur presses on, turning his attention to another foe.

5ft step to activate Outslug Style.

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (12) + 16 - 3 = 25 @Green
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (9) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 24

Disarm: 1d20 + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 ⇒ (4) + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 = 17 @Green

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (8) + 16 - 3 = 21 @Green, if disarmed should be flat-footed
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 17

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 11 - 3 ⇒ (6) + 11 - 3 = 14 @Green, if disarmed should be flat-footed
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (5) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 20

Flurry (trip), risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 2 - 3 ⇒ (17) + 16 - 2 - 3 = 28 @Green, if disarmed should be flat-footed

If green falls before the trip attempt, will redirect the last flurry to attack Orange instead, just adding +1 to the roll since it is prone. 1d10+8+6+1 dmg.

AC: 23 (16 Tch) | CMB: +10*, CMD: 28*

Vedika misses. Zahur wounds and trips Green.

Orange makes his feet and withdraws, leaving a trail of blood behind him.

Green tries to get up.

AOO for those next to him, or with a reach weapon.

Brigita, Ariadne & Kayleigh can now act.

Kayleigh manages to clip the nearest thug as he stands back up; then she closes on the next-closest goon and swings again, not very accurately.

Kayleigh Fairwind mwk silver morningstar (AoO--Green): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (16) + 9 = 25 for bludgeoning, piercing, silver damage: 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 1 = 3

Kayleigh Fairwind mwk silver morningstar (Red): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (6) + 9 = 15 for bludgeoning, piercing, silver damage: 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (4) + 1 = 5

Dropping her sword, Ariandne whips around her crossbow from the strap lung across her back, taking careful aim at the fleeing goon.

Light Crossbow vs Orange: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (19) + 8 = 27
Piercing: 1d8 ⇒ 1

Confirm
Light Crossbow vs Orange: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (11) + 8 = 19
Piercing: 1d8 ⇒ 8

To keep their backs covered, Brigita moves to end the one getting up. green

earthbreaker silver +1, B, mutagen: 1d20 + 11 ⇒ (9) + 11 = 20
damage: 2d6 + 11 ⇒ (6, 6) + 11 = 23

Kayleigh clips Green and then misses Red.

Orange has a glimmer of hope in his eyes as he scurries away, a glimmer that dies as Ariadne pots him.

Brigita splatters Green, who looks almost relived at not having to keep getting up.

Red doesn't like the odds so he does a runner.

AOO for Kayleigh.

Everyone can now act!

Kayleigh again embarrasses herself with an amateurish swing at the escaping thug. "Ugh! I can't see a thing when I have this stupid mask on!" her frustrated voice intones from within the plaguebringer's mask.

Kayleigh Fairwind mwk silver morningstar (AoO--Red): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (1) + 9 = 10 for bludgeoning, piercing, silver damage: 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (7) + 1 = 8

Still spinning his hook and slowly moving forward, Zahur attacks the fleeing thug, disarming him and then trying to trip him to hinder his escape.

5ft step to activate Outslug Style

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (5) + 16 - 3 = 18 @Red
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 17

Disarm: 1d20 + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 ⇒ (20) + 22 - 2 - 4 - 3 = 33

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 3 ⇒ (15) + 16 - 3 = 28 @Red, flat-footed if disarmed
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (10) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 25

Trip, risky strike: 1d20 + 16 - 2 - 3 ⇒ (4) + 16 - 2 - 3 = 15 @Red, no dex on CMD if disarmed

Flurry, risky strike: 1d20 + 11 - 3 ⇒ (8) + 11 - 3 = 16 @Red, flat-footed if disarmed, -4 AC if prone
Damage, risky strike, outslug: 1d10 + 8 + 6 + 1 ⇒ (1) + 8 + 6 + 1 = 16