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That Polygon article on Battlecry! has confirmed that Andoran and Cheliax are coming to blows soon, with an in-setting conflict called the Inner Sea War and a metaplot event called the Hellfire Crisis. Everything we know so far points to this spiraling out into something larger than just those two nations brawling, so it's time for all of us to don our armchair general's hats and do our best sports draft impressions:
Who will cling to the skirts of the infernal empress? Who will rally behind the armies, spies, and privateers who declare for democracy? Who is too ideologically-opposed or otherwise occupied to take a stand with either?
Make your guesses known now, so we can all feel smart/stupid once the book comes along!
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I think given what's been described in War of Immortals, I strongly suspect Szuriel will be involved, even if her presence on that book's cover kind of overstated her personal role in both conflicts.
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Who will cling to the skirts of the infernal empress?
I can guarantee the antipaladin who turned Alexeara Cansellarion to evil will fight on the side of Cheliax. Alexeara herself will fight for House Thrune as the recently appointed Lord Mayor of Westcrown by Queen Abrogail II herself!
Also, please make sure the Hellfire Redeemer is at least a somewhat important plot point in this AP.
It was mentioned long ago in a sidebar on page 13 of Cheliax Empire of Devils and we haven't heard anything about it since.
The thing I am interested in is how this plays out in Ravounel, since they're obligated by treaty to assist Cheliax, but absolutely do not want to fight Andoran, but they also do not want to lose access to Chelaxian markets.
I'm genuinely wondering who, if anybody will offer meaningful aid to Cheliax. Isger is a client state, so they probably will, Nidal and Ravounel will put in the most token efforts as nominal allies, it will be interesting to see how Molthune and Oprak respond.
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Who is too ideologically-opposed or otherwise occupied to take a stand with either?
Kyonin (which will have exhausted itself in the Spore War);
Molthune (which is preoccupied in Nirmathas);Oprak (which is preoccupied recovering a large part of its citizenry from being stranded on the Plane of Earth after Godsrain);
Taldor (which only benefits from its competitors beating each other up without having to commit forces itself);
Kelesh/Qadira (likewise);
Osirion (likewise);
Thuvia (likewise);
Druma (which faces the Whispering Tyrant's realm and can profit more by selling to both sides);
Absalom (likewise, except for facing the Whispering Tyrant);
Galt (which is both weak and badly situated geographically to get involved, beyond selling supplies cheap to Andoran);
The Five Kings Mountains (likewise);
Korvosa/Magnimar (likewise, but selling supplies cheap to Cheliax);
Nidal (likewise, but may be committed to support Cheliax if Andoran is the aggressor);
Ravounel (likewise, and may have other additional caveats and exceptions to its commitments);
Vidrian/Senghor/Irim/Mirivenn (are committed to defend Ravounel to the extent it becomes a belligerent, but will stay out of things as long as it doesn't, and can't contribute much in any event).
Isger is almost certain to be involved, but more as a battleground than an independent player (think Belgium); it will probably be considered co-belligerent with whatever country invades it second (under the pretext of helping Isger against the country that invaded it first). Both sides of the civil war in Katapesh will receive support from the Inner Sea War belligerents (with Cheliax supporting the government and Andoran the Firebrands), but neither side will probably project power back into the main theater. Rahadoum may become an Andoren co-belligerent in an effort to get Cheliax to recognize its sovereignty over Khari and maybe take territory on the north side of the Hespereth Strait to secure its territory on the south side. The Free Captains will likely lease their services to the highest bidder, and probably won't be unified in the enterprise. Likewise Riddleport. Mzali may opportunistically attack Vidrian if it becomes a belligerent. The Segada Protocol powers may opportunistically seize Anchor's End or Elesomare or both.
Every power not mentioned is probably too far away to care, or to intervene meaningfully if they did.
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I do think the plausible arc of the war is that the initial belligerents are going to be Andoran vs. Cheliax, but bu the final belligerents will be "Hell" vs. "Everyone else."
Since whether it's an issue of House Thrune defaulting on their contract with Asmodeus, or Thrune simply requested more infernal aid when "the literal armies of hell are marching against comparatively free people" that's going to get a lot of people to take notice
Like Taldor doesn't mind if Anodran and Cheliax weaken each other, sink each other's ships, etc. But Taldor has reason to get involved against Asmodeus's legions. Rahadoum would definitely have an interest in the latter scenario more than the former.
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Both sides of the civil war in Katapesh will receive support from the Inner Sea War belligerents, but probably won't project power into the main theater. Rahadoum may become an Andoren co-belligerent in an effort to get Cheliax to recognize its sovereignty over Khari and maybe take territory on the north side of the Hespereth Strait to secure its territory on the south side. The Free Captains will likely lease their services to the highest bidder, and probably won't be unified in the enterprise. [...] The Segada Protocol powers may opportunistically seize Anchor's End or Elesomare or both.
This is the stuff that interests me the most here: how active Rahadoum gets in pressing their Chelish border (especially anything to do with Khari), the naval aspects of this conflict and how privateering is likely to get involved, and potential knock-on effects for both Garund and Arcadia.
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I'm genuinely wondering who, if anybody will offer meaningful aid to Cheliax.
If Andoran doesn't get powerful allies of its own, Cheliax can probably prosecute the war to a successful conclusion (to wit, status quo ante bellum or better) without any allies beyond the ones it already has (to wit, the entire Old Cheliax meta-region with varying degrees of commitment, plus Hell). Even after all its reverses, and for all of Andoran's confidence as a rising power and following several foreign policy successes, Cheliax is still the greater power. Its known population from statted-out settlements is about three times that of Andoran's, and it is more geographically extensive (with both sides having similar proportions of unproductive waste and forest land) meaning a commensurately greater rural population to draw on to staff and support the army. Andoran may be able to equalize the playing field with its institutions (a more centralized and democratic government enabling a more comprehensive levy en masse), but probably not sufficiently to force a favorable peace without additional foreign support.
To reiterate, Andoran's most likely co-belligerent is Rahadoum.
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The thing I am interested in is how this plays out in Ravounel, since they're obligated by treaty to assist Cheliax, but absolutely do not want to fight Andoran, but they also do not want to lose access to Chelaxian markets.
N.b., if Rahadoum does become an Andoren co-belligerent, Ravounel's odds of committing in earnest (that is, more than nominally) to the Chelish cause go up considerably. It is terrifically unlikely that the Silver Ravens managed or even wanted to negotiate an exception for Rahadoum to Ravounel's mutual defense pact with Cheliax; they are noted in multiple places (the Adventurer's Guide, Firebrands) to be working towards overthrowing Rahadoum's government in order to replace its state atheism with religious liberty/freedom of conscience. This earnest commitment is not likely to affect very much in itself (Ravounel is terribly weak, about a third as populous as Rahadoum from settlements and even if Ravounel's far more hospitable countryside makes up some of the difference, its weak institutions make it hard to mobilize), but Rahadoumi counter-action may draw in Ravounel's maritime and overseas allies (Irim/Mirivenn, Vidrian, and Vidrian's ally Senghor), who together with Ravounel and Cheliax could probably give Cheliax command of the Arcadian Pcean east of Azlant and seize Talmandor's Bounty (and Elesomare if the Segada Protocol powers don't take it first).
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Unless Ravounel has been secretly committing to a shipbuilding program that rivals that of Andoran itself (which borders on possible, but seems staggeringly unlikely) it's unlikely they will have much to contribute to an actual war besides the capacity of their intelligence services, which is probably the only thing the country punches above its weight class in since the entire Silver Raven apparatus was the main project of an entire party of high level PCs, who most likely left a competent organization behind them (not something that can really be said for any other Ravouneli institution.)
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Unless Ravounel has been secretly committing to a shipbuilding program that rivals that of Andoran itself (which borders on possible, but seems staggeringly unlikely) it's unlikely they will have much to contribute to an actual war besides the capacity of their intelligence services, which is probably the only thing the country punches above its weight class in since the entire Silver Raven apparatus was constructed by high level PCs.
The Silver Ravens are not the Ravounel intelligence service, they are a private membership-based organization not responsible to the state in any way over and above compliance with the law. Their members have no special responsibility to the state as individuals either beyond the duties of citizenship, unless they happen to hold some office of trust. Their ability to determine Ravounel's foreign policy only extends so far as their holding a relevant office, except that the Oakrib Inn negotiations to which their leadership was deputized cast a long shadow since they produced Ravounel's mutual defense pact with Cheliax, in whatever form that takes in canon. They might take it upon themselves to act on behalf of the state's foreign policy aims, they're parochial and nationalistic like that, but it's not a duty that they owe.
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What are the chances Abrogail defaults on her debt but has gathered so many Warshards she is strong enough to ward off Asmodeus agents and pulls a 'help me fight Hell, better the devil you know right?' Maybe she even tries to pull the Queens of the Night into it on her side?
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In fact, my biggest hope is that Cheliax wins the war. Because I think, quite unironically, that would be a more interesting storyline than the standard victory of good in the form of Andoran.
I agree. Cheliax has felt largely impotent recently, having them start to reconquer formerly independent nations would help a lot with their image, and make them a stronger threat on the world stage.
With Tar-Baphon to the north and Cheliax to the West that starts to put some major strain on The Shining Kingdoms and the southern Kingdoms of The Eye of Dread. How will Andoran work as a group of 'Plucky Rebels' rather than a nation? Will the Eagle Knights make some uncomfortable choices if it means defeating Cheliax? Maybe Nirmanthas and Oprak are able to bury the hatchet after Ironfang Invasion to stand up against a resurgent Cheliax, or will they be ground between the Lich and the evil empire? If Andoran falls, can Eutropia's Taldor and Kyonin, ravaged from their fight against Treerazer, pull themselves together from their recent troubles in time to push back the literal legions of hell?
All in all, a much more exciting turn of events than, "Oh, Cheliax is such a silly goose, don't they know everyone else has plot armor because they the good guys? Of course you're going to lose!"
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Why would Cheliax lead by Abrogail II want to stop serving Hell. Abrogail has the unique ability to create and enforce infernal contracts, something that among mortals only she has.
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Why would Cheliax lead by Abrogail II want to stop serving Hell. Abrogail has the unique ability to create and enforce infernal contracts, something that among mortals only she has.
Agreed. Abrogail II and Hell will not be parting ways anytime soon.
If the Thrunes could make a pact with Hell in order to win the Chelish civil war, what would stop some other noble house from doing the same if the Thrunes broke their contract with Asmodeus?
Why would Cheliax lead by Abrogail II want to stop serving Hell. Abrogail has the unique ability to create and enforce infernal contracts, something that among mortals only she has.
I mean, it's possible that Abrogail is out of the picture. If we look at the previous reigns of Thrune Monarchs we have:
Abrogail I, 4640–4672 AR
Antoninus, 4672–4674 AR
Terthule, 4674–4682 AR
Carellia, 4682–4696 AR
Infrexus, 4696–4709 AR
Abrogail has already been at the reigns for 16 years, and it will be longer when the event starts.
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Why would Cheliax lead by Abrogail II want to stop serving Hell. Abrogail has the unique ability to create and enforce infernal contracts, something that among mortals only she has.
Remember that Cheliax (or at least its upper class) has deluded itself into thinking they're the more advantaged party in the contract. "Cheliax does not serve Hell, Hell serves Cheliax." In the quite likely event that House Thrune is forced into the position of either losing power over Cheliax or facing the consequences of breaking the Pact with Asmodeus, they'd most likely opt for the latter, hoping they can leave the lower classes holding the bag while they try to save their own skins (and souls) or...if Abrogail II is as psychopathic as she seems to be (remember, this is a woman who needs a NESSARI reminding her to rein in her worst impulses, who personally, GLEEFULLY beheaded every Iomedaean priest in Egorian with Iomedae's own sword and never bothered to clean the blood off of it out of spite!) She JUST MIGHT go mad enough to decide "Nah, I'd win."
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Tensions have been building for a while now between the Hellknights loyal to the Thrune regime and those who see it as a mockery of the Law in desperate need of a purge - I wonder if that'll play out as a factor in this war?
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Tensions have been building for a while now between the Hellknights loyal to the Thrune regime and those who see it as a mockery of the Law in desperate need of a purge - I wonder if that'll play out as a factor in this war?
I rather doubt it, especially if Paizo is taking the World War I inspiration seriously (which I also doubt, but that's beside the point). A comprehensive agreement between all domestic political forces to put prewar disagreements aside until victory was achieved (read, to surrender all agency to the existing government) was a notable feature of every belligerent power in World War I. It was only broken in Russia, Austria, and Germany by the utter defeats and disintegrations of their field armies, precipitating revolutions.
I could see an endgame of this where Cheliax becomes like post-WWII Germany with roughly half of the country literally controlled by the forces of hell and the other half relatively free, perhaps with an enclave of the latter inside the former. It can't be "Westcrown" though since "West Westcrown" sounds bad.
I could see the rough borders of the conflict, at least in Avistan, being the Shining Kingdoms versus Old Cheliax. A cool process of the conflict could be stunning initial victories from Cheliax that get more of the world involved, leading to A. conflict getting bigger across the world and B. ultimately a Chelish defeat that turns them into a bunch of squabbling states.
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Maybe instead of everyone else her, Cheliax will win the war and actually have a success for once instead of losing and thus making the setting less dangerous and unique. Evil hellish empire is cool and they make for great badguys. losing that means no more using them in the future.
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Maybe instead of everyone else her, Cheliax will win the war and actually have a success for once instead of losing and thus making the setting less dangerous and unique. Evil hellish empire is cool and they make for great badguys. losing that means no more using them in the future.
What does "winning the war" actually mean? That is to say, what are the belligerents' war aims over and above the baseline of state and regime survival (it does Thrune no good to seize a bunch of territory if she ends up couped by her court or Hellish allies; likewise it does Marusek no good to seize a bunch of territory if her party loses the next election; likewise it does neither party any good if prosecuting the war leads to the disintegration of the Infernal Magistracy and Cheliax Covenant, or the Common Rule and Associative Act, as institutions)?
And who is the aggressor? This matters because the aggressor likely has a clearer view of its war aims beyond state and regime survival at least to start out (if it didn't have some idea of what it wanted out of war, it wouldn't start one), and because the defender has to give paramount importance to preserving the state and regime as long as the aggressor looks like it's winning.
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The point of bad guys in a game like this (much like in pro wrestling) is "to eventually take the L against the good guys" because those are the sort of narratives your audience wants to experience. An eternal holding pattern where your bad guys don't do anything except "be potentially threatening" doesn't do your baddies any favours etiher.
Like you don't set up "Cheliax is a terrible place" and never give the players of your game a chance to do something about it. There will assuredly be more terrible places elsewhere on the map. Like Treerazer is set to take a dirtnap next month but the Outer Rifts are not lacking for far more horrible things.
There are whole continents out there with evil empires we haven't even heard of yet. Like the Halana Theocracy is interesting, Mzali is interesting, Irrisen is probably not importing all of that earth technology for the benefit of everybody, etc.
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Maybe instead of everyone else her, Cheliax will win the war and actually have a success for once instead of losing and thus making the setting less dangerous and unique. Evil hellish empire is cool and they make for great badguys. losing that means no more using them in the future.What does "winning the war" actually mean? That is to say, what are the belligerents' war aims over and above the baseline of state and regime survival (it does Thrune no good to seize a bunch of territory if she ends up couped by her court or Hellish allies; likewise it does Marusek no good to seize a bunch of territory if her party loses the next election; likewise it does neither party any good if prosecuting the war leads to the disintegration of the Infernal Magistracy and Cheliax Covenant, or the Common Rule and Associative Act, as institutions)?
And who is the aggressor? This matters because the aggressor likely has a clearer view of its war aims beyond state and regime survival at least to start out (if it didn't have some idea of what it wanted out of war, it wouldn't start one), and because the defender has to give paramount importance to preserving the state and regime as long as the aggressor looks like it's winning.
To take a stab at these questions, Andoran's minimal war aims are probably something like setting up sister republics in Isger and Sirmium, securing free access through the Hespereth Strait, and annexing Anchor's End, with its maximal war aim enforcing regime change on Cheliax. Cheliax's minimal war aims probably don't go much beyond maintaining the status quo ante bellum, since the international system as it exists works basically fine for the regime. It might want to annex Elesomare and Talmandor's Bounty, and enforce a war indemnity and demilitarization on Andoran. Its maximal war aims would include reannexing Andoran (and Galt and Ravounel and Vidrian if they join the war against it, but they won't). The said maximal war aims are almost certainly beyond either belligerent's power to achieve without some exceptional circumstances (for instance, recruiting a group of four to six Warshard-empowered heroes in a context where the enemy fails to do the same). Working backwards from these aims, it stands to reason that Andoran, as the revisionist power, is likely to be the aggressor.
Irrisen is probably not importing all of that earth technology for the benefit of everybody, etc.
It probably is, actually. Paizo's whitewashing of Nikolaevna and her dynasty could not get more comprehensive, shameful, and offensive if their aim was to be as provocative as possible.
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The point of bad guys in a game like this (much like in pro wrestling) is "to eventually take the L against the good guys" because those are the sort of narratives your audience wants to experience. An eternal holding pattern where your bad guys don't do anything except "be potentially threatening" doesn't do your baddies any favours etiher.
Like you don't set up "Cheliax is a terrible place" and never give the players of your game a chance to do something about it. There will assuredly be more terrible places elsewhere on the map. Like Treerazer is set to take a dirtnap next month but the Outer Rifts are not lacking for far more horrible things.
There are whole continents out there with evil empires we haven't even heard of yet. Like the Halana Theocracy is interesting, Mzali is interesting, Irrisen is probably not importing all of that earth technology for the benefit of everybody, etc.
Halana is in Arcadia which is across an ocean. Mzali is a city state, Irrisen could but I doubt it, same with Nidal who isn't expansionist, evil yes but they don't want to conquer. I don't know of any empire in the inner sea that serves it.
unless we have something like andoran be revealed to actually be evil demon worshipers and post war andoran now is a cyberpunk dystopia, but I don't think that would be good either.
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Tensions have been building for a while now between the Hellknights loyal to the Thrune regime and those who see it as a mockery of the Law in desperate need of a purge - I wonder if that'll play out as a factor in this war?I rather doubt it, especially if Paizo is taking the World War I inspiration seriously (which I also doubt, but that's beside the point). A comprehensive agreement between all domestic political forces to put prewar disagreements aside until victory was achieved (read, to surrender all agency to the existing government) was a notable feature of every belligerent power in World War I. It was only broken in Russia, Austria, and Germany by the utter defeats and disintegrations of their field armies, precipitating revolutions.
Last we heard, the Lictor of the Order of the Scourge was actively working against Abrogail II, to the point where she was hiring Red Mantis Assassins to kill Hellknights under his command; I could easily see his Order taking an anti-Chelish stand in the case of open hostilities. The Order of the Torrent has openly opposed Cheliax already - I don't see them stopping. Whether or not any other Orders join them, who knows, but I can't imagine either of those two feeling obligated to fight for the Thrune regime.
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Halana is in Arcadia which is across an ocean.
Only from a perspective that centers the Inner Sea or southern Garund or Casmaron or Tian Xia, which one needn't adopt.
If you nevertheless want an evil empire in the Inner Sea, the domain of the Whispering Tyrant is right there. Or if you prefer evil empires to control a bit more territory than a single small island, there's New Eurythnia (or New Thassilon as a whole if you're not in the mood to be generous).
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Last we heard, the Lictor of the Order of the Scourge was actively working against Abrogail II, to the point where she was hiring Red Mantis Assassins to kill Hellknights under his command; I could easily see his Order taking an anti-Chelish stand in the case of open hostilities. The Order of the Torrent has openly opposed Cheliax already - I don't see them stopping. Whether or not any other Orders join them, who knows, but I can't imagine either of those two feeling obligated to fight for the Thrune regime.Tensions have been building for a while now between the Hellknights loyal to the Thrune regime and those who see it as a mockery of the Law in desperate need of a purge - I wonder if that'll play out as a factor in this war?I rather doubt it, especially if Paizo is taking the World War I inspiration seriously (which I also doubt, but that's beside the point). A comprehensive agreement between all domestic political forces to put prewar disagreements aside until victory was achieved (read, to surrender all agency to the existing government) was a notable feature of every belligerent power in World War I. It was only broken in Russia, Austria, and Germany by the utter defeats and disintegrations of their field armies, precipitating revolutions.
Nationalism in wartime is a hell of a drug, and the burgfrieden a hell of a brainworm.
To take a stab at these questions, Andoran's minimal war aims are probably something like setting up sister republics in Isger and Sirmium, securing free access through the Hespereth Strait, and annexing Anchor's End, with its maximal war aim enforcing regime change on Cheliax. Cheliax's minimal war aims probably don't go much beyond maintaining the status quo ante bellum, since the international system as it exists works basically fine for the regime. It might want to annex Elesomare and Talmandor's Bounty, and enforce a war indemnity and demilitarization on Andoran. Its maximal war aims would include reannexing Andoran (and Galt and Ravounel and Vidrian if they join the war against it, but they won't). The said maximal war aims are almost certainly beyond either belligerent's power to achieve without some exceptional circumstances (for instance, recruiting a group of four to six Warshard-empowered heroes in a context where the enemy fails to do the same). Working backwards from these aims, it stands to reason that Andoran, as the revisionist power, is likely to be the aggressor.
I think all of that makes sense. and Andoran being on the aggressive I think could be a cool thing.
Irrisen is probably not importing all of that earth technology for the benefit of everybody, etc.It probably is, actually. Paizo's whitewashing of Nikolaevna and her dynasty could not get more comprehensive, shameful, and offensive if their aim was to be as provocative as possible.
Off topic, but mind explaining more with what is the offensive whitewashing off the dynasty?
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Last we heard, the Lictor of the Order of the Scourge was actively working against Abrogail II, to the point where she was hiring Red Mantis Assassins to kill Hellknights under his command; I could easily see his Order taking an anti-Chelish stand in the case of open hostilities. The Order of the Torrent has openly opposed Cheliax already - I don't see them stopping. Whether or not any other Orders join them, who knows, but I can't imagine either of those two feeling obligated to fight for the Thrune regime.Nationalism in wartime is a hell of a drug, and the burgfrieden a hell of a brainworm.
There's also the Doylist consideration that a Lost Omens: Hellknights is probably likely in the face of all this, and Paizo won't want to restrict those new player options to the "bad guy" side of the war.
I don't expect the people sworn to an otherworldly ideal of order above any mortal nation to all neatly fall in line when one queen demands it. If nothing else, the promise of Hellknight-on-Hellknight violence is too juicy to pass up.
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I don't expect the people sworn to an otherworldly ideal of order above any mortal nation to all neatly fall in line when one queen demands it.
I do, at least at first. They may, however, find their consciences (sic.) should Cheliax's armies suffer major reverses later in the war than the first few weeks/months, when the impulse to defend the nation in its hour of need is at its strongest. The burgfrieden did eventually break down, after all—just in 1917–18 after victory had become impossible rather than in 1914 when principle could have prevailed but did not.
I do wonder what sort of war crimes, evil actions, and villianous behavior Andoran will do if we are going the ww1 route where all sides were bastards. All the powers were Imperialist bastards who did plenty of war crimes and horrible stuff.
Cheliax is obvious but Andoran will need to do some evil, maybe they fireball innocent chelixan villages going "you are all devil worshipers so die!"
Now if this was Geb v Nex then that would be fine, both Nex and Geb are unethical wizards are allowed to do what they please.
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That’s not Paizo. Since it was done by the dirty comics everyone tried to whitewash them.
To take a stab at these questions, Andoran's minimal war aims are probably something like setting up sister republics in Isger and Sirmium, securing free access through the Hespereth Strait, and annexing Anchor's End, with its maximal war aim enforcing regime change on Cheliax. Cheliax's minimal war aims probably don't go much beyond maintaining the status quo ante bellum, since the international system as it exists works basically fine for the regime. It might want to annex Elesomare and Talmandor's Bounty, and enforce a war indemnity and demilitarization on Andoran. Its maximal war aims would include reannexing Andoran (and Galt and Ravounel and Vidrian if they join the war against it, but they won't). The said maximal war aims are almost certainly beyond either belligerent's power to achieve without some exceptional circumstances (for instance, recruiting a group of four to six Warshard-empowered heroes in a context where the enemy fails to do the same). Working backwards from these aims, it stands to reason that Andoran, as the revisionist power, is likely to be the aggressor.
I think all of that makes sense. and Andoran being on the aggressive I think could be a cool thing.
That’s
** spoiler omitted **** spoiler omitted **
Dirty comics?
I am unfamiliar. Please explain.
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I said in a previous thread, and I think it still holds true, that the smartest thing Taldor could do is to remain utterly neutral in the conflict, and make sure both nations have thoroughly wrecked each other so that it can swoop in to pose itself as a viable replacement as regional economic and naval power and try to restore some of its regional hegemony, if not the old Empire.
Another party I can see staying neutral is Osirion. I doubt Osirion particularly likes Cheliax, who have a long history of plundering its tombs, but the actions of its Eagle Knights probably haven't endeared Andoran to the Ruby Prince either. If I recall correctly, there are only three nations whose ambassadors have been summoned by the Ruby Prince to express his displeasure with them, and two of them are Cheliax and Andoran.
Thuvia I see having no reason to join either. Cheliax is too distant a threat, and too lucrative a bidder for the Sun Orchid Elixer, for it to rock the boat. Likewise, Qadira might not appreciate the cut into its international trade but it has as much money at stake in Andoran as it would in Cheliax - both have a foothold in Arcadia, so it only needs one of them to survive. But Rahadoum might be willing to lend Andoran some of its resources. It's still consolidating the province that it took off Cheliax, is a direct neighbour with only the Arch of Aroden between them, and if Cheliax's navy is finally knocked out Rahadoum could position itself as a successor for Arcadian shipping and naval protection with enough time to build a fleet. Rahadoum as the potential to be the Carthage to Cheliax's Rome (or, I suppose, vice versa - Rahadoum as the fledgeling rising power and Cheliax as the once great power whose star is on the decline) and I think that would be a cool ongoing dynamic that gives Rahadoum more than "we hate the gods." But until then, it's useful for Andoran to shred as much of its own taking on Cheliax as it can afford to.
On the other hand, you have Andoran's northern neighbours who are facing the Whispering Tyrant and probably wouldn't be happy to be deprived of the military forces and supplies provided by Cheliax, even if they come with strings. Whatever beef exists between Cheliax and Andoran is no business of Oprak, Druma, Molthune and Nirmathas, and takes resources away from the ongoing efforts to contain the legions of undead that ravage the Gravelands and menace its neighbours. On the other hand, if Cheliax's eye is taken off the ball Molthune has historically eyed it hungrily, kept at bay only by the risk of pissing off their Thrune backers, and might take Andoran up on an offer to "acknowledge their historical territorial claims" and let them run rampant if it opens up a second front Cheliax have to fight along. But Oprak are notably mercenary, and might be persuaded to aid Cheliax for the right amount of coin, especially if that coin goes to bolstering its forces fighting Tar-Baphon and reinforce its border with Molthune.
And just for shits and giggles, let's throw in Nex throwing some diplomatic (and covert magical) support for one faction, and Geb supporting the other just so that Nex doesn't get a return on its investment. For fun, Nex might not appreciate the destruction of Cheliax, another major power on Golarion with extraplanar connections, while I think Geb (both the nation and the wizard) would get a kick out of getting a toehold in Avistan and positioning itself as an ally against Tar-Baphon if Cheliax can't hold up its alliances - one undead nation supporting the enemies of another.