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I mean, the point of "fail forward" is fundamentally that each roll changes the world state in some way. In the aforementioned "climbing the wall makes a racket, which rouses some guards" we shouldn't jump immediately to combat, but we should force the players to choose between "keep climbing", or "get down and hide" or "get down and get ready for a fight" or "get down and try to bluff the guards that you saw the malefactors and they went that way, etc."
I mean "the guards in this area will be alerted if the PCs make a racket in a nearby area" is a thing that is codified in a lot of APs. But I fundamentally see no issue with "baddies pop in and out of existence" in places where the PCs can't see this happening.