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No one likes to die. This is true at every level of the game, but more so for low levels in my opinion. Imagine, you just got your catfolk boon, then the GM crits you at your first boss, dealing massive damage and kills your new character. We hate to see it happen, but it CAN happen.
The massive damage rule is a nice addition to 2e, it adds an element to danger to all encounters. At any time, if an enemy hits hard enough, your character is just dead. And the same goes for enemies too, which is fair right? WRONG. Low level PCs are disproportionately affected by this rule. Here's my explanation.
Lets take Ezren for example. At level 1 he has 15 AC and 16 HP. Pretty standard for a wizard. Assume that there's an effect that causes Amiri, who's already raging, to get confused, and Ezren just so happens to be the closest target. She strides, strikes, and boom, Ezren is dead. No save on his part, but all due to lucky GM rolls, or unlucky player rolls. The odds of this happening are actually 5% (19+ on the d20 and 6+ on the d12), so highly unlikely, but it CAN happen.
Meanwhile, let's consider level 5 Ezren and Amiri. At this point, Ezren has 53 HP and 20 AC. If Amiri strikes at level 5, the max damage she can do is 68, which is far bellow the 106 damage needed to instantly kill Ezren. In fact, not even a level 13 Dragon can cause massive damage on Ezren with a bite attack (Adult blue dragon, 3d8+12 piercing plus 1d12 electricity, 96 max on a crit).
The point of this, is that damage output and max HP do not scale in the same way, meaning the massive damage rules are only really applicable to low level characters, or when going against high leveled enemies. This is especially prevalent on traps present in low level scenarios, where massive damage can have over a 20% chance of occurring at level 1. For example:
This rule has the chance of disheartening players who are just starting out, or causing players to lose 1 time only boons with no chance of recovery. At higher levels, death isn't as bad, as we have fame available to buy resurrections if we need them, or Breath of Life, etc. But at level 1, we have nothing. If we die we die.
A fix that was mentioned to me by a 5 Star GM was to change the massive damage rule to not kill you in Society, but instead increase your dying value by an additional 1. This way, assuming a crit would cause massive damage, you would end up at Dying 3 immediately. This change will allow players to use Hero Points to stop dying, or take the chance of rolling to stabilize, or allow other allies to act to save you. It still poses a threat, as you are immediately one dying value from death, but it at least gives fresh level 1 PCs a chance to not just die instantly at no fault of their own.
What are your thoughts? Have you ever accidentally killed a player through massive damage? How would you play a boss monster that can deal such crazy amounts of damage at low levels? I want to hear your stories.

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Outside of Society, I just throw the massive damage rule out the window. I agree it disproportionately hurts low level players.
In Society? I haven't seen low tier combats be very tough. I think only once have I seen someone go from full to Dying 2 with one hit and it wasn't close to triggering massive damage.

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I think Level 1 is the only level you're particurally likely to encounter massive damage in PFS. In fact I've seen 2 level 1 PCs killed by massive damage out of about 80 games. (I also killed a level 1 Kyra with a crit followed by a nat 1 on the death save, after nobody was in a good position to help her that round.)
From a different adventure...:
In Tier 1-2 There's a creature that attacks at +12 1d10+6. So if you've got 16 or less hp it could trigger massive damage.
Lets say you've got 15 AC and 15HP. (Say a human wizard with 12 con, 14 dex) That's a 40% chance to crit with a 20% to roll 15 or more damage. That's an 8% chance to outright kill the attacked character. (Monster attack so hero points can't help)
That same adventure has a hazard that does 4d6 (Basic Save) which maxes out at 48 damage. An above average damage roll and a crit fail could kill all sorts with max damage and a crit fail killing almost anyone. It also adds a very large persistent bleed which is also scary.
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At high tier the monster attacks at +15 for 2d8+7.
Even a 10 con elven Wizard is going to have 24 hp at level 3,
The monster cannot kill the elven wizard with massive damage.
The hazard does does 4d6+10 and can still the kill the wizard (as can the non-leveled hazard actually, but only on max damage and a crit fail)

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I thought the insane trash throwing mob might be able to do it, but they would only crit the Wizard 50% of the time for 1d6+3, maxing at 18 points of damage.
Try as PFS might, it doesn’t seem to be able to avoid the Ledford Paradox (scenarios designed for new players that are also very deadly).

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IMO, the chances of death in 2E are already so incredibly low, even the massive damage rule is not going to have a significant impact. It just means if you are a [relatively] low-hit point character, you need to be tactically smart, stay out of reach of dangerous enemies, and not lead the party through unknown environs. If you are a [relatively] high-hit point character the risks are significantly low. TBH, as long as we continue to have archers and casters bragging that they never take damage because they stay clear of the enemies, I'm not really concerned about them being smacked with their arrogance from time to time.
If you are running for truly new players and you think that having their character die from a fairly rare effect, then just fudge the results. If they fail their save, announce lower damage or whatever. This is why I tend to roll in secret when dealing with n00bs rather than rolling in the open.
tl;dr meh, death happens. A community leader once eloquently said, "Adventuring is dangerous business. Better wear your 'big-boy' pants." :-D

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Low levels have always been the most impacted by a crit, PF2 doesn't change from PF1 in that aspect. But the design of the system is such as there's the need of specific handouts in the scenarios to smooth over the potential risk.
Early publishings were not fully balanced in that aspect but they partly corrected the problem down the road. That won't completely disappear though so there's seeing how writers on one side, and new players on the other will deal with it.
Scenarios aren't created equal, some are more friendly, others more lethal.

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I suspect the design reason for death by massive to exist is so that you can say "well if the whole mountain falls on top of you you're dead", without having to go through several rounds of Dying and Recovery checks. So it's a kind of a theoretical fallback for cases where you take damage far beyond for what a normal threat of your level should do.
Except at level 1. Because even at character level 2 already, it's almost impossible to find anything within a reasonable level range that can do enough damage on a single hit to instantly kill a character.
So while it's theoretical goal is to have something where you can say "if you, the level 3 peon, take on that titan, you die", in practice it's mostly a newbie trap.
I would not be sad to see this rule suspended in PFS.

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IMO, the chances of death in 2E are already so incredibly low, even the massive damage rule is not going to have a significant impact. It just means if you are a [relatively] low-hit point character, you need to be tactically smart, stay out of reach of dangerous enemies, and not lead the party through unknown environs. If you are a [relatively] high-hit point character the risks are significantly low. TBH, as long as we continue to have archers and casters bragging that they never take damage because they stay clear of the enemies, I'm not really concerned about them being smacked with their arrogance from time to time.
If you are running for truly new players and you think that having their character die from a fairly rare effect, then just fudge the results. If they fail their save, announce lower damage or whatever. This is why I tend to roll in secret when dealing with n00bs rather than rolling in the open.
tl;dr meh, death happens. A community leader once eloquently said, "Adventuring is dangerous business. Better wear your 'big-boy' pants." :-D
In a lot of cases this makes sense. But there is a real problem in cases like
In a case like that, you don't have "adventuring is dangerous and character die" which SHOULD be true. You have a badly balanced scenario killing a character through dumb luck alone, without giving them a chance to make the mistake that gets them killed.

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I’ll point out that one side-effect of online play if you roll openly as a GM is that it’s much harder to fudge rolls to help the new player. If everything is in a macro and attack and damage all pop up at once, then it’s already out there.
Just to add another example:
Also a creature that’s +11 for 1d12+5 that could deal massive damage.

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I'm not against massive damage rule in general, but I do agree that there's a design flaw where "regular" encounter can cause massive damage death to a level 1 PC, but after level 2 (or level 3, latest), your character is safe from sudden death unless something truly spectacular happens.
A simple solution, honestly, would be to rule that massive damage rule isn't applied to level 1 or 2 PCss.

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I was actually doing some research into high level monsters, to see how hard they can hit. The highest amount of damage on a single hit I have been able to find is a Balor Demon's death explosion at 160 max damage (16d10). This means if you have over 160HP, you will never have to worry about massive damage again. This amount of HP is trivial; unless you never put a boost in con, a Wizard will have it at 16 or 17, and a Barbarian will have it at level 10, both well before getting near fighting things that can cause that damage.
I feel like designers forget this rule when designing scenarios. Maybe they think "Oh it doesn't matter if this guy has a Greataxe and +5 Str at level 1, it will add to the tension if a few people are down and they can save themselves with hero points!"
Also, here's another design flaw with 2-01:

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Except at level 1. Because even at character level 2 already, it's almost impossible to find anything within a reasonable level range that can do enough damage on a single hit to instantly kill a character.
Plaguestone and Age of Ashes say hi. I've technically lost a PC at level 2 due to massive damage in 1 and almost in Plaguestone.

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While frustrating, Campaign mode games don't carry the same repercussions as Society games, even when played for credit.
"Oh, drat! My wizard was one-hit killed! Well, I think I'll roll up a witch for when the rest of you get back to town," and your Society character still gets credit for the module/AP book.
Vs.
"Finally! I've earned 120 AcP, and I've made my Once-Ever Hobgoblin character," then in the first 45 minutes of a scenario they crit fail their save against a damaging trap that rolls high and results in a massive damage death.

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While frustrating, Campaign mode games don't carry the same repercussions as Society games, even when played for credit.
"Oh, drat! My wizard was one-hit killed! Well, I think I'll roll up a witch for when the rest of you get back to town," and your Society character still gets credit for the module/AP book.
Vs.
"Finally! I've earned 120 AcP, and I've made my Once-Ever Hobgoblin character," then in the first 45 minutes of a scenario they crit fail their save against a damaging trap that rolls high and results in a massive damage death.
Yes, this is exactly it. In 1E, massive damage had the caveat of being a MINIMUM of 50 damage. This made it impossible for low leveled characters to be affected by it, and being half your max HP still made it hard for enemies to reach it, but it was still possible. Plus there was a really easy save associated with it, where most people would fail only on a 1.
Now, it only makes low levels more deadly than they need to be.

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Blake's Tiger wrote:While frustrating, Campaign mode games don't carry the same repercussions as Society games, even when played for credit.
"Oh, drat! My wizard was one-hit killed! Well, I think I'll roll up a witch for when the rest of you get back to town," and your Society character still gets credit for the module/AP book.
Vs.
"Finally! I've earned 120 AcP, and I've made my Once-Ever Hobgoblin character," then in the first 45 minutes of a scenario they crit fail their save against a damaging trap that rolls high and results in a massive damage death.
Yes, this is exactly it. In 1E, massive damage had the caveat of being a MINIMUM of 50 damage. This made it impossible for low leveled characters to be affected by it, and being half your max HP still made it hard for enemies to reach it, but it was still possible. Plus there was a really easy save associated with it, where most people would fail only on a 1.
Now, it only makes low levels more deadly than they need to be.
I don't think it's quite a full match to compare these directly. While the rules have the same name, the phenomenon of massive damage killing level 1 characters in 2E is more equivalent in effect to having an orc with a x3 critical great axe knock someone down to negative CON in one hit in 1E.
The 2E problem being bigger is more that encounter design that uses a single big trap or a big solo boss in a level 1 adventure hugely expands the odds of that critical triggering in the first place. This becomes really bad if scenario scaling allows a heavily over level boss at CP totals of 10 or 12, that can be a fully 1st level party, so that there is no character who could be "in front" that isn't in the instant death range.

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I also killed a level 1 Kyra with a crit followed by a nat 1 on the death save, after nobody was in a good position to help her that round.
I feel like that's a balanced mechanism of death. If you get crit, and nobody helps you, and then you crit fail, I'm okay with that character dying. It's multiple gating items - the GM has to do something, then allies have to do something, and then the player has to do something.
The reason the massive damage rule differs is that there's only one gating item, so a GM does something and - boom - dead. It may add to the danger but I don't think it's fun.
A simple solution, honestly, would be to rule that massive damage rule isn't applied to level 1 or 2 PCs.
I think this is essentially the same as doing away with the massive damage rule altogether - since people have pretty much shown it's very difficult, if not impossible, to apply past Level 1. And I'm for it.
If rules can't be poofed like that, a workaround would be to make Level 1 resurrections free for Society.
But beyond massive damage, I feel like the easiest way to go about it is with an updated PFS1 "Welcome to Pathfinder" boon, which essentially gave a -1 character a "get out of death" card. Because the people for whom sudden death is an irreversible injury are new players - some new player finally musters the courage and puts in the work to create a bunch of accounts and learns how to join a game, and then on a single die roll loses their only character to a rule that nobody at the table but the GM knew about ... that's probably going to drive them away from the game forever. I would err on the side of overprotecting a new player's -2001 character for Level 1.

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Some people suggest fudging rolls, and I would do the same to ensure everyone has a tense but fun game. The problem is that some GMs are legit out for blood and want to make the game as difficult as possible. They will play up tactics and make enemies act in ways they probably shouldn't but aren't necessarily restricted by the given tactics. Like having a creature with Grab drop their prey, full attack and grab at the end of it so they can do full damage, which a normal animal would never do. These GMs are really what I'm worried about with this rule, where they will roll massive damage and revel in killing a level 1 character so easily.
I don't think it should be removed, I think it should be changed. I really like the +1 to your dying value if you take massive damage, as it still puts you on death's door while allowing Hero Points to save you, if you have any left.

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The problem is that some GMs are legit out for blood and want to make the game as difficult as possible ... These GMs are really what I'm worried about with this rule, where they will roll massive damage and revel in killing a level 1 character so easily.
I'm still in favor of eliminating or changing the massive damage rule, but I don't think that eliminating the massive damage rule will solve the problem that you bring up.
I think the solution to "out for blood" GMs is to ask them to behave differently towards new players.

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Tommi Ketonen wrote:A simple solution, honestly, would be to rule that massive damage rule isn't applied to level 1 or 2 PCs.I think this is essentially the same as doing away with the massive damage rule altogether - since people have pretty much shown it's very difficult, if not impossible, to apply past Level 1. And I'm for it.
I don't think it's necessarily the same. First off, falling damage is something that can easily kill you from massive damage, at any level, as it caps out at 750dmg. Secondly, keeping the rule but not applying it to lvl 1 PC's allows for threats that are by design and intent, instantly deadly. Fall into lava? The cave collapses on you? Torn apart by magical vortext?
The difference is that anything that can inflict massive damage should be -by design capable of doing so-. I think it's completely fair to set up scenarios where the PC's CAN risk instant death to accomplish something - Such as, run in to save an NPC but risk getting obliterated by an "impossible" threat. The issue here is that level 1 (and maybe, level 2) are the only places where it can happen "by accident", and I don't think that's the intention.
I think the max damage from falling damage, plus the fact that mechanically an appropriate level creature can't kill you with massive damage after a certain point, shows that massive damage shouldn't really come up "by chance" but only by design when it's threat is there on purpose.

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Fall into lava? The cave collapses on you? Torn apart by magical vortext?
But do those things ever realistically appear in PFS scenarios?
I feel as though the Massive Damage rules exist for some limitation of the more crazy, legalistic player ideas like, "I'm going to just off this mountain to get down faster. The lowest my HP can go is 0, then my Orc Ferocity will kick in, and I'll use LOH on myself."
But has a subtier 1-2 scenario ever put you at risk of something pushing you off of a mountain to fall to your instant death?
I don't think Massive Damage is designed to "increase challenge or risk" either. It's a catch all for doing something ridiculously lethal or a way to adjudicate something insanely heroic (the running into an imminently collapsing, burning building to save a kitten), but even then you are testing yourself against a check, and those sorts of things don't show up in PFS scenarios.

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Still don’t see a problem. First, it’s only a “problem” in a few adventures out of a growing library and even then it only happens rarely. Sometimes death happens. Sometimes it happens despite your best efforts. I see poor tactical decisions and/or “I’ve got this” arrogance as the cause much more frequently and by “frequently” I mean almost never. I’ve played every scenario released for 2E (less the 2-00 special) plus Plaguestone and GMd almost all of them and other than a certain infernal encounter and the [redacted] from Plaguestone, the encounters are just fine and even those, I appreciate an epically dangerous encounter from time to time so it’s not a design flaw. The game is not supposed to have the “easy” mode turned on all the time. With the dying rules as they are coupled with Hero Points, I very rarely feel like any character (mine or otherwise) is at risk. As it stands you almost never lose gold or fame, etc let alone die permanently. YMMV

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If you're looking at the game in terms of "easy mode" and "hard mode," I think you're already going in the wrong direction. Easy/Hard mode implies that there is a different level of risk of character death for "easy mode" compared to "hard mode." However, risk of character death is not the benchmark one sets in scenario/adventure design.
We GMs do not design adventures with the goal of killing our players' characters (or X% of characters or N deaths over K sessions). We do need the illusion of character death to introduce tension and drama into the game, and in order to maintain that illusion, character death does, at times, need to occur. My cleric who died during a TPK serves to maintain the illusion for the community when anyone mentions Crypt of the Everflame and prompts me to mention (including now) that my character died in a TPK playing that. It didn't need to be a TPK, it would have the same effect if it was just my character that died.
My goal, when I write an adventure or campaign is to get my players through it to the end (while giving them an entertaining time). If I kill them off, I can't get them to the end. All my prep work was for nothing if they never reach the final battle. All my prep work was for nothing if they keep replacing the cast with new characters that I kill off so that the farm boy/girl hero's journey that the original cast began is finished by some random group of high level heroes created piecemeal over the past 4 weeks because I kept killing them off and now none of the players has an investment in the story.
Unlike other organized play systems or GenCon when I was a kid, where you just show up with the appropriate level character and play an adventure with that character, PFS is much more like a living campaign, like the kind I build for my friends. The stories build on one another, often leading to a conclusion of great to excellent story telling. If characters are getting killed off too frequently and before they have options to recover the character, then the players don't get to advance in the campaign and don't get to the conclusion.
As an aside, the issue is compounded due to the one-play-per-player rule (and I'm vehemently not arguing to remove that rule). You start a character, play through 3 scenarios, then the character bites it. You play through 3 more and then the new character bites it. You keep this up, and you'll not be able to advance in the campaign's story.
Now, back to Massive Damage: Since the goal is not to kill as many characters as possible, the designers write the encounters based on calculable risks. E.g. "What is the chance of a critical against the average PC AC at this level?" "What is the chance to fail this save at this level?"
I suspect that they are not thinking, "What is twice the maximum hit point of an average character at this level?" They may think, "Yes, this has a good chance of taking out a character in one hit if this NPC crits, but then they'll be Dying and can use a Hero Point or make their Death Save or get healed, and, yes, they might be out of all those options or the dice may hate them, and sadly a rare few will lose their character in this Tier 1-4." Unwittingly, though, they gave (following the rules of the game) the players a challenge that could result in not a One-Hit-Knock-Out but a One-Hit-Death. You could be surrounded by clerics, but they can't save you because you have 16 HP and you critically failed a basic save vs. a 1d8+8 trap that happened to roll an 8, when they could have totally saved you if an ogre hit you two times in succession for 15 damage, then 17 damage (same total damage to your body).
Or maybe they are.
But I suspect they are not, and if they are not, then the Massive Damage rules could be tweaked to only apply to the improbable situations and not combat to reign in players trying to win a cross country race by jumping off mountains.
The fact that it appears to only occur in combat with Level 1 characters suggests it is not working as intended.

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Some people suggest fudging rolls, and I would do the same to ensure everyone has a tense but fun game. The problem is that some GMs are legit out for blood and want to make the game as difficult as possible. They will play up tactics and make enemies act in ways they probably shouldn't but aren't necessarily restricted by the given tactics.
Fudging rolls either way is often frowned upon

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Still don’t see a problem. First, it’s only a “problem” in a few adventures out of a growing library and even then it only happens rarely. Sometimes death happens. Sometimes it happens despite your best efforts. I see poor tactical decisions and/or “I’ve got this” arrogance as the cause much more frequently and by “frequently” I mean almost never. I’ve played every scenario released for 2E (less the 2-00 special) plus Plaguestone and GMd almost all of them and other than a certain infernal encounter and the [redacted] from Plaguestone, the encounters are just fine and even those, I appreciate an epically dangerous encounter from time to time so it’s not a design flaw. The game is not supposed to have the “easy” mode turned on all the time. With the dying rules as they are coupled with Hero Points, I very rarely feel like any character (mine or otherwise) is at risk. As it stands you almost never lose gold or fame, etc let alone die permanently. YMMV
That is what I thought - until I killed my first PC.
Copy&paste players in the box. Players don't know if monster comes from left/right/top/bottom. None shouts out / moves during diplomatic discussion (which is a red herring anyway).
BBEG appears in his box. Roll initiative - BBEG wins. Only a single character in reach. Double move, 1 strike - 15 (enough to crit), followed by a 6 (on a d8) for 28 damage - character halfling witch oracle, Con 12 (13 HP) dead.
With hindsight: I could have moved BBEG 5 feet differently - that would have allowed the Paladin to use his reaction and to prevent enough HP damage to prevent the death. I had reach - so the witch had to be exactly adjacent to the Paladin or BBEG needs to attack from a side that is close enough to Paladin to be within 15 feet.
Out of principle I tend not to roll secret / fudge dice. Anyhow - once in the open - that doesn't help. And it was a fellow player remarking - oh - does this trigger the massive damage rule?
Yes - I did throw the group off as the diplomatic encounter was on the side of the Paladin/tank. So the witch 'seemed' to be safe.
GM (me - oops).
Player did nothing wrong - apart of being a witch/halfling with Con <16. Once I won initiative he had a 17% chance to instant die.
Here are the chances for instant death - assuming attack/monster dealing most damage in scenario and a crit in 1-06. This is a repeatable and therefore is played a lot.
Option | Attack/Reach | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
1 | +11 range 05 | 55.6% | 41.7% | 27.8% | 16.7% | 8.3%
2 | +12 range 60 | 37.5% | 25.9% | 16.2% | 9.3% | 4.6%
3 | +12 reach 10 | 50% | 37.5% | 25% | 12.5% | 0%
4 | +12 reach 10 | 37.5% | 25% | 12.5% | 0% | 0.0%
Off course you have to multiply with the chance of a crit. So depending on AC numbers above need to be divided by a factor of 2.5 to 4.
AC | Att+11 | Att+12
15 | 35% | 40%
16 | 30% | 35%
17 | 25% | 30%
18 | 20% | 25%
In summary - anyone with <15 HP at level 1 (heritage 6 HP / class 6 HP gives a base of 12) can only hope to never be attacked by the worst damage dealer in a scenario or is under a real danger to die using the massive damage rule.
And this is not uncommon. 9 out of 15 season 1 scenarios (tier 1-4) can insta-kill anyone with 15 (or less) HP. And in some cases hiding your rolls is not an option as it is a crit fail (hazard or flaming spehere) that causes the kill - unless you let roll saves ahead of damage.
Yes - a hydraulic push or flaming sphere can instakill anyone up to 18 hp.
The reason it doesn't happen more often are rather - you need 15 or less HP to truly be in danger - which only happens at level 1 and with certain class/heritage combinations.
But yes - use a Kobold, Rat, Tengu or Witch and you might qualify.

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No one likes to die. This is true at every level of the game, but more so for low levels in my opinion. Imagine, you just got your catfolk boon, then the GM crits you at your first boss, dealing massive damage and kills your new character. We hate to see it happen, but it CAN happen.
Thanks for bringing this up.
Just to add - Ezren is actually quite sturdy with 16 HP (human, 8, Con 14). The true issue starts with 15 (or less) HP.
I only realized the issue after the fact when I calculated in my first PC kill that the character I targeted had a nearly 17% chance of insta-death.
And 1-11 / 2-01 are not the worst offenders.
There is one scenario where you can insta-kill anyone up to 24 HP (4d6 - doubled) on a failed save (crit fail) using an Area of Effect. At least a failed save can be re-rolled and this can be avoided depending what the group is doing.
Just did the Maths - even Valeros with an expert save / ability 14 and 20 HP (so inherently survivable) has a 1 in 127 chance to die here.

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A little bit more data - the most deadly instance I could find for a level 1. I use the Pregens.
Damage - 4d6 - 10 feet burst
Save - Fortitude
Chance to be dead (without a hero point reroll) using the massive damage rule
Amiri 1 in 576
Ezren 1 in 12
Fumbus 1 in 11
Harsk 1 in 576
Kyra 1 in 9
Lem 1 in 14
Lini 1 in 25
Merisiel 1 in 8
Sajan 1 in 51
Seelah 1 in 123
Seoni 1 in 8
Valeros 1 in 123
Feiya 1 in 8
Jirelle 1 in 34
Korokai 1 in 8
Quinn 1 in 9
Droogami 1 in 3
Because it is an area of effect - multiple players can be targeted. To put it into context - for half the PreGen the chance is worse (approx twice worse) as rolling a nat 1 to just be dead.
Edit: Having a hero point left at this stage increases your chance of survival by a factor of 3 to 6 - depending on which char. you are.

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And 1-11 / 2-01 are not the worst offenders.
LOL those are the two scenarios my two brand spanking new Level 1 characters are playing in Gameday so maybe I will have some sudden death data of my own to share!
A little bit more data - the most deadly instance I could find for a level 1. I use the Pregens.
It's some very nice quantitative data, but I don't think the likelihood of it coming up is relevant to the fundamental flaw, which is that in principle (whether it comes up 1 out of 10 times or 1 out of 10,000), having a character suddenly die without any chance of someone intervening is not a rule consistent with the other rules.
A Dying character is moved in initiative to just before the monster that put it into Dying, because the whole party is supposed to get a chance to intervene before a character dies. The flat checks to advance the Dying value are meant to give the unconscious player (who can't take actions) a chance to survive. The whole system is set up around the concept that there are multiple off-ramps on the freeway of death.
Practically (or cynically, depending on your world view), the concept is to create diffuse responsibility. The character died because of a combination of reasons, so it's harder for the player to focus their anger at one target. They moved up too far (so it's partly the character's fault), but the GM rolled at natural 20 (so it's partly the GM's fault), and their teammates didn't help (so it's partly the party's fault), and then they rolled at natural 1 (so it's partly the player's fault). It's harder to blame someone for their death.

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I’m sorry, but if the impetus is “no one likes to die” then just eliminate character death. Yes, that’s a bit cynical but this topic comes up every time a scenario is even the slightest bit hard. We can always come up with character builds that are much more at risk of dying than others. IMO, there needs to be some danger in the game even if that danger might sometimes feel unfair. Life’s not always fair. Sometimes, despite your best efforts, characters die. Between the Dying rules, Hero Points, AcP/boons there are so many ways not to die that it’s almost a non factor. Gone are the “good ol days” of character death being commonplace, but sometimes it feels like the pendulum has swung too far the other direction and it’s become almost nonexistent. I would be disappointed to see the massive damage rules removed, in fact I think they should be tweaked so they become more likely for higher level character rather than less likely for lower levels. The designers did a great job building the rules for escalating levels, but massive damage is kind of static with a negative effectiveness curve. YMMV

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Don't twist my words. I absolutely agree - there has to be a risk.
And I think Paizo did an outstanding job regarding the Maths underlying PFS2.
BUT
a 34.9% auto death in a tier 1-2 scenario if a pregen ever gets attacked by a BBEG without MAP without any recourse is just wrong.
Do the Maths:
Freya, 1-11, using the scaling for 14-15 CP (that is 4 pregen and 2 level 2)
Freya has a 45% chance to be critted and in case of a crit she has a 77.6% chance to get double her HP (or more) damage.
And before you tell me - but Freya shouldn't be in the front. Valeros has a 6.7% chance (1 in 15) to die instantly if he has not his shield raised. This 6.7% assumes a single attack. Off course you would assume Valeros getting at least 2 on average before he is down.
There are edge cases on level 1 where the double HP damage ruling has some (in my view) unexpected consequences. I doubt a 1 in 15 chance for Valeros to die if he goes into the frontline is expected.
If he gets critted (which is the hard part) then his chance to die instandly is 22.4% in these circumstances.
Solution: Play Harsk - he has a 0 chance for inst death under the same circumstances.

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Good positioning doesn't even always help...
Another 1-2 (at 12 CP) has a +13 for 2d6+7 melee attack with a 40 foot move and a 40ft 1-action teleport and specific tactics to attack the back row.
This one I saw kill a level 1 PC at a table I was playing from massive damage.
(At less than 12 CP it's only +11 for 2d6+5, significantly less deadly but still potentially lethal to some)

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The premise isn't "no one likes to die."
To be fair, it’s the very first thing the OP said so it’s a fundamental part of the discussion.
To me this seems like an easy fix. IF you are running for level one PCs and IF there are n00b players and IF there is a BBEG with a mathematically significant chance of one-shotting them, then turn on the whisper mode (or whatever you VTT of choice calls it). Yes, generally people like to roll in the open, but sometimes as GMs we have to adjust to the environment. Focus on what you have control of and reduce the impact of what you don’t. If the BBEG happens to critically hit the PCs, you can easily fudge it to be a regular hit or reduce the damage slightly to prevent the insta-kill effect if you feel that strongly about it.
Remember, the designers wrote the rules such that the GM is expected to tweak them for their game. It’s only the nature of org play that changes that expectation. Rather than taking away a base rule of the game, use the rules that do exist to make them work for you.

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Yea it's the first thing I said, but I clarified it later. The premise is "No one likes to die so why is this mechanic in the game affecting low level character with no recourse if they do die, and not high level characters with access of spells and resources to mitigate the effects of dying"
The risk of death should be more common at high levels, not low levels. This is why spells that bring you back are higher level, because at that point things get more and more deadly.
The rule doesn't even have to be changed. What should be changed is scenario design. Massive Damage should be accounted for when designing scenarios, and they should warn GMs about it if they intentionally include it. At least then we will know it's by design, rather than an oversight.

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My first pf2 experience was playing pfs. The very first encounter, we climb on board some boat, a monster pops up in the middle of the party, goes first, crits me, double my hp, instant death. Welcome to pf2. But hey, you have hero points so you spend it and don't die.
I have to admit that set my initial opinion of pf2 very low.

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Except that you can’t spend hero points to avoid dying in that situation. Hero points don’t stop massive damage. They only affect you when your dying level would increase, and that never factors into massive damage.
But that is exactly the type of situation that is the problem. You’re a 4-star PFS1E GM. You probably just shook it off. A new player playing their first PFS game ever that has that happen is less likely to take it so well.

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What should be changed is scenario design
I would not be opposed to that solution. Its better than having org play rules that differ from the CRB. If we think that the damage output of enemies vs level 1 characters should be changed, I think there would be more support for that.

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But hey, you have hero points so you spend it and don't die.
Hero points can't actually save you from Massive Damage. And I'm sorry that was your first experience, I hope since then you have had a bunch of amazing experiences. I personally love all the changes of PF2, Massive Damage is my only gripe.

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Thanks for the example of gnoams - that is exactly the kind of example why there is a problem.
Personally - I don't mind if I get killed level 1. I either spend AP or retire that character. But it is a big disincentive. And it is the finality - no hero points, no healing. The only options are reaction like shield block or a champion reaction.
Solutions:
1) Softball / run it in secret
Not a good solution.
a) you might not be aware you should 'hide' a roll until after it happens (exactly my case).
b) You are supposed Run as Written and that flies into the face of it.
c) GMs might not be aware of the issue. Not everyone reads this
2) Scenario design
This one is more complex to show it is a bad solution. But take Hydraulic Push and how deadly it is vs PreGen. This is a level 1 !! spell. Numbers assume a critical hit.
HP | Killed | PreGen
11 | 50.0% | Droogami
15 | 9.3% | Korokai, Feiya, Seoni, Fumbus
16 | 4.6% | Ezren, Kyra, Lini, Quinn
17 | 1.9% | Lem
18 | 0.5% | Lini
| |
19+ | Never | Amiri, Harsk, Sajan, Seelah, Valeros, Jirelle
I don't think banning something like Hydraulic Push from scenario design should be the solution.
Just for the fun of it - and even deadlier level 1 spell - shocking grasp. I don't know if any of the spellcasters in season 1 tier 1-2 can cast that one. Again - I assume a critical hit.
11 68.8% Droogami
15 38.2% Korokai, Feiya, Seoni, Fumbus
16 31.3% Ezren, Kyra, Lini, Quinn
17 25.0% Lem
18 19.4% Lini
19 14.6% Sajan, Jirelle
20 10.4% Seelah, Valeros
22 4.2% Amiri, Harsk
9 out of the current pregens have a greater 1 in 4 chance to just fall down dead if ever critted by a shocking grasp. That truly is shocking !!
3) Change the rules - either PFS only or for the whole game
Current rule:
Massive Damage
You die instantly if you ever take damage equal to or
greater than double your maximum Hit Points in one blow.
Suggested
Massive Damage
You die instantly if you ever take more than 50 HP and this damage is equal to or greater than double your maximum Hit Points in one blow.
Simple, straight forward. The rule stays the same once you reach 25 HP - but it protects low level from insta death (you are still dying 2 and need help). And yes - should you - for some reason take more than 50 points - well - you deserve to be dead, dead as level 1 in this case.
Apart of level 1 - the other beneficiaries would be Animal Companions and familiars. I need to check it out - but a familiar failing his save while targeted by burning hands - shouldn't he/she be auto dead if I roll 10+ on 2d6? (assuming 5 HP)

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Good positioning doesn't even always help...
Another 1-2 (at 12 CP) has a +13 for 2d6+7 melee attack with a 40 foot move and a 40ft 1-action teleport and specific tactics to attack the back row.
This one I saw kill a level 1 PC at a table I was playing from massive damage.
(At less than 12 CP it's only +11 for 2d6+5, significantly less deadly but still potentially lethal to some)
I was the GM for this game, and I felt terrible. This was when we still had in-person cons, and I was openly rolling on the table. I actually didn't realize how easy it would be for a first level PC to die of massive damage.
Putting my adventure writer hat on, I've certainly tried to keep that experience in mind. I honestly don't think any author has deliberately tried to make adventures that would kill Level 1 characters, but it is very easy to focus on the encounter math for moderate or severe without really looking at what those opponents could do to, say, a level 1 elven wizard. But as Thod's math shows, even effects that should be fair game for 1-2 adventures, like shocking grasp, can outright kill a PC fairly often, which definitely makes for a not fun experience.
With the regular dying rules, several things have had to go wrong before a PC actually dies. A PC at wounded 2 and no hero points can immediately die if crit, but that PC has gone down twice already. Even the situation where a PC goes down to a crit and then crit fails their first stabilization roll could still have been saved by a hero point or by another PC providing aid during the full round that would happen between those things.
I would love to see either a tweak to the massive damage rule as Thod suggested or the ability to use hero points to stop a death from massive damage.

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It's an interesting math problem in that any effect that is dangerous enough to drop a PC in 1 hit, is also dangerous enough to potentially kill them (assuming double on a crit/critfail).
I think adding a line to the guide allowing hero points to be spent to prevent death by massive damage seems like a fairly easy fix that shouldn't otherwise be particularly disruptive.

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I'm NOT a fan of using hero points to prevent massive damage because that just means every level 1 character now doesn't dare use their last hero point on anything else anymore, because a crit can kill you then.
I've found that the hero point mechanic was working much better when people realized it was good to spend them on the roll before you got to dying, such as to reroll a critical failure on a saving throw. Or to trust that the initiative-shifting mechanic of dropping to Dying gave your teammates a chance to stabilize you. Which freed up hero points to spend on for example plot-relevant skill checks.
I think the 50 damage minimum is a much better solution.

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Got to play the first bounty today, which is designed for only level 1 characters and specifically to have something to use to introduce people to the game (not just PFS). Yeah, massive damage is totally possible in that one, too.
The Bounty was fun, but I just don’t see instantly killing characters in a player’s first game as the best advertisement for Pathfinder or PFS. At least if the demo isn’t being run for PFS credit, it’s a lot easier to fudge things.
In all other ways, I didn’t find the encounter too powerful, so it’s definitely a case of the possibility of massive damage making something far more dangerous and lethal than it otherwise would be.

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I'm NOT a fan of using hero points to prevent massive damage because that just means every level 1 character now doesn't dare use their last hero point on anything else anymore, because a crit can kill you then.
meh, in my experience no one uses the last Hero Point anyway because it assumes they won't die if they are about to go to Dying 4

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Lau Bannenberg wrote:I'm NOT a fan of using hero points to prevent massive damage because that just means every level 1 character now doesn't dare use their last hero point on anything else anymore, because a crit can kill you then.meh, in my experience no one uses the last Hero Point anyway because it assumes they won't die if they are about to go to Dying 4
This isn't my experience - I see people using the hero point a lot precisely because the rules are set up to facilitate teamwork to save people.
Hero points were meant to be used, not hoarded.

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TwilightKnight wrote:Lau Bannenberg wrote:I'm NOT a fan of using hero points to prevent massive damage because that just means every level 1 character now doesn't dare use their last hero point on anything else anymore, because a crit can kill you then.meh, in my experience no one uses the last Hero Point anyway because it assumes they won't die if they are about to go to Dying 4This isn't my experience - I see people using the hero point a lot precisely because the rules are set up to facilitate teamwork to save people.
Hero points were meant to be used, not hoarded.
It was my experiemce at first that people hoarded them, but that has been less the case as peple got used to the system.

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Lau Bannenberg wrote:It was my experiemce at first that people hoarded them, but that has been less the case as peple got used to the system.TwilightKnight wrote:Lau Bannenberg wrote:I'm NOT a fan of using hero points to prevent massive damage because that just means every level 1 character now doesn't dare use their last hero point on anything else anymore, because a crit can kill you then.meh, in my experience no one uses the last Hero Point anyway because it assumes they won't die if they are about to go to Dying 4This isn't my experience - I see people using the hero point a lot precisely because the rules are set up to facilitate teamwork to save people.
Hero points were meant to be used, not hoarded.
I find that people often try to hold on to one point but will spend it if they end up in a tough spot.