I think they originally indicated it would be a low priority, as with the new edition, the baseline of much is significantly simpler in many respects.
However, I agree that it would seem at some point they would want to produce a product that had a smaller 'page count' than the core book that could be used for a more packaged introduction. Right now the SRD and/or PDF with the introductory adventure is as close as they really get at the moment.
I think they are going to focus on getting a bunch of the classes that were lost in the transition from first to second put back into the new edition of the game before they do a simplification pass, to create a beginner box, although I could be wrong. But based on that I'd think we'd be talking 2021, more than likely.
That isn't going to stop me from trying to run my kids through the Black Fang dungeon at least once using second edition rules. They loved it using first edition rules, and have expressed excitement about me saying I would convert it and allow them to run through it with the new rules, to see how it plays.
To be honest, the hardest part of my conversion is dealing with the categories of magic items that have gone away. It has two consumable [near empty] wands, for instance. Obviously those shouldn't be replaced with full wands, but seems inappropriate to replace it with a scroll or two for several reasons, spanning between mechanics and verisimilitude.
I had to acknowledge the treasure is rather rich from a standard baseline, but even after that I'm struggling placing what feels like appropriate items.
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I believe the intent is, P2 is built more on Opt-in mechanics/complexity. Your game becomes more complex as you advance. You gain new options, progressively as opposed to there being lots of mechanics from the start that your progress pushes up and down via modifiers.
So in theory, if they limit themselves down to some four classes, limit information to four classes, one or two paths for them, and a subset of the core feats and spells, you should be able to shorten quite a bit of the page count down to make a reasonable beginner box
Likely, it wouldn't have any multi-class archetype rules, as that would save a bunch of space. (or conversely require a bunch of space to include it)
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I would very much like to see a starter box sooner rather than later.
I've found the game is easy to play to an enjoyable level once you've played it for an hour or so. Yes you will miss some of the rules but the core of the game is straight forward so in a few hours you'll be happily cantripping, shield blocking and switching between encounter and exploration mode with ease.
The problem I've encountered is in getting people to play those first few hours. The rulebook is extremely daunting due to its size and I've seen people struggle to pull together a character due to fear of not knowing how to play and therefore what of many options to take.
I've started using one of the pathfinder society pregen quests which has helped quite a bit but having the trimmed down characters with simpler rules (the number of conditions for example or the rules for afflictions) would make it a lot easiet to get people started and then they will take it from there.
Also starter set bling is never a bad way to get people involved.
D&D 5e might also be simple (and truth be told it is), but that didn't stop WotC from producing the seemingly-highly-popular Starter Set (or more recently, the Essentials Kit) for it.
That said I believe Paizo also said that they want to play and see "how people play the game" before they put together a beginner box and have a good idea on what to include there.
It took Starfinder 2 years to get its BB after all, and apparently PF1 got its beginner box halfway into its decade-long lifecycle?
So give it time, really.
Instead of a beginners box per say I would prefer a proper starter kit that has the CRB 4-6 figures of iconics a flip-mat once side with a premade adventure map the other side blank. A mini bestiary and adventure book set around a small town maybe Breachhill since it is kind of the Sandpoint of 2E
a set of dice and than an info sheet showing all the online resources of archives of nethys. Price it at $99 and maybe put coupons with one time codes to get like 10% off the bestiary.
Failing that the 1E beginner box isn't bad so a 2e version would be fine but instead of wasting page space for info for leveling up to 4 or something instead direct them to the prd and used the space/cost saved to make the other elements of the box more premium like a few minis multiple adventures or mats ect.
I vaguely recall the developers saying something along the lines of PF2 being designed with a beginner's box in mind, so they could do one that's just a limited version of the core rules instead of having it actually change rules. That was apparently an issue with the PF1 box, particularly regarding attacks of opportunity.
I'd like a beginner kit that's a bit simpler than the CRB, without teaching people things that they'd later have to unlearn/relearn (PF1 leaves out AoOs, Starfinder leaves out Stamina).
So perhaps only the first four class levels, leave out the level 5+ ancestry stuff, don't bring in all the possible class paths or even all of the classes.
Bring the "playing the game" section forward a lot, because you need that stuff to understand a lot about the class descriptions.
Certainly include an introductory adventure, as well as a basic overview of how to build your own encounter as a GM.
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What I'd really like is a beginners storybook style adventure. Plaid hat games has really nailed this format where the rulebook is like two pages long and then you have a storybook. On the even pages there is the map for the encounter and then on the opposite page there is all the story and new rules for that encounter.
An adventure setup like that were the players AND the gm only need to take 10 minutes to learn the base rules and can then jump right into an adventure were the rules content slowly ramps up naturally would be amazing.