Value of certainty


Pathfinder First Edition General Discussion


There are a few trade-off feats/metamagic stuff/class features that guarantee a certain number on a roll. For example, the Law domain grants an automatic 11 on d20 rolls at the cost of an action. Or Irori's combat style, which grants automatic average damage at a -2 to hit. Or the Maximize metamagic, which grants automatic maximum variables (usually damage) at a +3 to SL.

Is there an objective value to knowing the exact value of a roll before you make it? What are some good uses for knowing your rolls beforehand? What are the pros and cons of certainty? From certain perspectives (Player, GM, writer, etc.) is it more frustrating or helpful? Is it overall a good thing?


Certainty allows you to perform a risky action without fear of a fail.
But it could also prevent you from achieving something just mildly difficult.

It's like rolling damage: 3d6 yields the same average damage as 1d20, but is much more consistent in dealing around 10 points of that.
Against an enemy with 8-9 hp left, you'd rather roll 3d6 than 1d20; if the opponent has 17 or 18 hp instead, 1d20 gives you a much better chance of oneshotting it.

To me, certainty does have a value but, on average, not a big one.
It becomes much better if you have that as an option: for example, you only use that Law domain power if you want to attempt a rather simple task that you really don't want to fail at.
If that power always on, or even if affected ALL rolls for the next x hours, it would have been much less useful.


Theres also things that one might only fail on a NAT1 due to other bonuses and such being high or the check being low, certainty is pretty valuable then, although roll twice take the higher abilities are more common.

I had an oracle who was built for initiative she always acted in the surprise round and had blindsense, her Initiative bonus was 14, not the highest in the party (although pretty high), but she rolled thrice and took the highest, I honestly think she went second like twice in the whole campaign first the rest of the time.

my point being, you can achieve a reasonable level of certainty without having fixed dice


Chromantic Durgon <3 wrote:

Theres also things that one might only fail on a NAT1 due to other bonuses and such being high or the check being low, certainty is pretty valuable then, although roll twice take the higher abilities are more common.

I had an oracle who was built for initiative she always acted in the surprise round and had blindsense, her Initiative bonus was 14, not the highest in the party (although pretty high), but she rolled thrice and took the highest, I honestly think she went second like twice in the whole campaign first the rest of the time.

my point being, you can achieve a reasonable level of certainty without having fixed dice

since the roll 3d20 take the highest is a level 20 ability it's hardly a fair comparison


I really wish there were more ways to negate nat 20's rolled agaisnt you.

After the crane style nerf, there has only been parry for melee, but you can't only target 20's with that.


My Self wrote:
Is there an objective value to knowing the exact value of a roll before you make it? What are some good uses for knowing your rolls beforehand? What are the pros and cons of certainty? From certain perspectives (Player, GM, writer, etc.) is it more frustrating or helpful? Is it overall a good thing?

Objective value: There is some value, but it depends heavily on the situation. Take 10 on a skill is a straightforward example: If you are sure you'd only fail at a low roll, take 10 has its value. On the other hand, in case you estimate that success will be unlikely (but the attempt still has merits), take 10 has a negative value.

Good uses: I'd want predetermined numbers on encounter deciding rolls, this includes social situations like haggling for a sell price or convincing guards to let us in.

Pros and cons: Beside mechanical considerations (see 'Objective value' paragraph), predetermined numbers both provide a feeling of control but they can turn the game more boring.

Player perspective: It's quite frustrating to see yourself fail on something you think you are good at - disappointment comes from unfulfilled expectations, after all. Predetermined numbers avoid this issue - unless the DC, AC etc. is unusally high.

GM perspective: Here I see frustration when the players predictably waltz through the encounter by taking their predetermined values.

Writer perspective: If these tactics become more common, you have approach encounters differently - make up situations with unpredictable DCs, for instance.

It's a good thing if it supplements rolling - but at least for me it shouldn't replace it.

icehawk333 wrote:
I really wish there were more ways to negate nat 20's rolled agaisnt you.

The Black Cat feat for Catfolk enforces a reroll for your foe, once per day.


Ancient Dragon Master wrote:
Chromantic Durgon <3 wrote:

Theres also things that one might only fail on a NAT1 due to other bonuses and such being high or the check being low, certainty is pretty valuable then, although roll twice take the higher abilities are more common.

I had an oracle who was built for initiative she always acted in the surprise round and had blindsense, her Initiative bonus was 14, not the highest in the party (although pretty high), but she rolled thrice and took the highest, I honestly think she went second like twice in the whole campaign first the rest of the time.

my point being, you can achieve a reasonable level of certainty without having fixed dice

since the roll 3d20 take the highest is a level 20 ability it's hardly a fair comparison

It was a level 11 ability called temporal clereity soooo no it's fine thanks.


Honestly, I think mechanics that replace rolling with a specific number subvert the basic aesthetic appeal of the game- "It is fun to roll dice hoping for certain outcomes and dreading others."

Now mechanics that only trigger when certain numbers are rolled are fantastic, because they expand the class of "outcomes you hope for/dread."


Except when a barbarian who killed a pit fiend swings so badly he wouldn't hit the broad side of a mountain 5% of the time

One in 20 times the hardiest dwarf in the world does a shot he gets sick, doesn't need to be consecutive either.


Chromantic Durgon <3 wrote:

Except when a barbarian who killed a pit fiend swings so badly he wouldn't hit the broad side of a mountain 5% of the time

One in 20 times the hardiest dwarf in the world does a shot he gets sick, doesn't need to be consecutive either.

I've thought of having semi-exploding critical dice, where natural extreme numbers (1s, 20s) make you reroll at -10 or +10, instead of auto-hitting/auto-missing. But there's also a certain relief when an enemy who should never be able to miss somehow does, and you don't get pounded into red jelly by a rain of giant boulders. Extreme variability characterizes the d20 system the same way that bell curves characterize 3d6 systems. Perhaps a lot of the Pathfinder stuff is really swingy and binary (Fail a roll, and you turn to stone and die. Succeed, and you hardly notice as you skewer the wizard.).

I guess there's a lot of value in certainty when total success/failure is riding on the line, such as when you or your opponent is at low HP and you need a specific roll. Over a long game, good rolls will tend to even out bad ones. But in any given situation, you will roll below average half the time. So I guess the value of certainty = (Missed chance of failure) * (Value of failure) - (Missed chance of success) * (Value of success). But in a situation with multiple choices, such as the option to swing at an enemy you know you will probably hit and the option to swing at a more important enemy you know you will probably miss, the value of is the difference in your expected value of hitting this one guy versus the chance of hitting the other guy. Also in consideration is if one or both of them are dead/crippled/fleeing after being wounded, or if one will retaliate and kill you if it's not dead.

The biggest factor influencing weighting is probably how much you value your own life. With a Pathfinder character, I'd gladly take a 19 out of 20 shot to become famous/wealthy/powerful, even if 1 out of 20 got my character killed. But as a real person...


Chromantic Durgon <3 wrote:
Ancient Dragon Master wrote:
Chromantic Durgon <3 wrote:

Theres also things that one might only fail on a NAT1 due to other bonuses and such being high or the check being low, certainty is pretty valuable then, although roll twice take the higher abilities are more common.

I had an oracle who was built for initiative she always acted in the surprise round and had blindsense, her Initiative bonus was 14, not the highest in the party (although pretty high), but she rolled thrice and took the highest, I honestly think she went second like twice in the whole campaign first the rest of the time.

my point being, you can achieve a reasonable level of certainty without having fixed dice

since the roll 3d20 take the highest is a level 20 ability it's hardly a fair comparison
It was a level 11 ability called temporal clereity soooo no it's fine thanks.

Meant the level 20 battle oracle ability never played a time oracle


icehawk333 wrote:

I really wish there were more ways to negate nat 20's rolled agaisnt you.

After the crane style nerf, there has only been parry for melee, but you can't only target 20's with that.

Dual-cursed oracle springs to mind as do preacher inquisitors. The divine interference or defiant luck feats work too.

If it's crits in particular that bother you there's fortification armor properties, the fortified armor training feat and more.

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