Pathfinder's survivability as a game system


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I start out by saying that I like what I am seeing in the pathfinder system. This, however, has not been enough in the past to keep a system alive, as the gaming graveyards are filled with good systems that didn't get enough play to stay in print.

The problem I see with this system is that it requires the 3.5 books to play, and those will shortly go out of print as WOTC bails on 3.5 and goes to 4E.

Since you are going to have to fight against WOTC and their muscle to get this system accepted, have you considered launching a living campaign using pathfinder? This is a lot of work for someone, but at least one of the authors is from the circle in the LG campaign and so knows how to get it started.

All indications are that the new 4E living campaign (LFR) is going to gut the regional system that made LG interesting. There is an opportunity to not only capture the gamers who like the regional system, but also develop a vehicle that exposes new gamers to the system.

Scarab Sages

May I suggest you read the Pathfinder plans which includes a Pathfinder Society.

They can't call it a living campaign, but its a very similar concept.

Dark Archive

Keith Symcox wrote:

I start out by saying that I like what I am seeing in the pathfinder system. This, however, has not been enough in the past to keep a system alive, as the gaming graveyards are filled with good systems that didn't get enough play to stay in print.

The problem I see with this system is that it requires the 3.5 books to play, and those will shortly go out of print as WOTC bails on 3.5 and goes to 4E.

Since you are going to have to fight against WOTC and their muscle to get this system accepted, have you considered launching a living campaign using pathfinder? This is a lot of work for someone, but at least one of the authors is from the circle in the LG campaign and so knows how to get it started.

All indications are that the new 4E living campaign (LFR) is going to gut the regional system that made LG interesting. There is an opportunity to not only capture the gamers who like the regional system, but also develop a vehicle that exposes new gamers to the system.

The final release of the PRPG is aimed at being a substitute for the PHB/basic 3.X rules, just along the lines of a no longer available core ruleset.

From the Pathfinder RPG main page:

PFRPG main page wrote:
As Wizards of the Coast's core 3.5 rulebooks are expected to go out of print with the release of 4th Edition, Paizo will use the Pathfinder RPG as a replacement for the 3.5 core rules.

Also, for the living campaign, have you checked the Pathfinder Society?


Keith Symcox wrote:


The problem I see with this system is that it requires the 3.5 books to play, and those will shortly go out of print as WOTC bails on 3.5 and goes to 4E.

You have this wrong.The alpha does need The other books. The beta will be pretty much the whole PHB when the finished book come out in 09 it will replace the PHB and DMG.

The fact that they are going out of print is one thing that lead to PFRPG. The alpha is just a touch up document with the beta having even more rules such as spells and equipment . The alpha and beta are playtest documents free to download and share.Time this year long playtest ends we will have one book that is all ya need to run the game. With monster books coming out later and still usable with your 3.0 and 3.5 books.

Scarab Sages

Incidentally, welcome to the boards.


To begin with the Pathfinder RPG Hardcover will contain the ruleset that would be needed to replace the 3.5 PHB and DMG, so the books going out of print will not be an issue.

Secondly, they are starting a living campign of sorts in the Pathfinder Society.

Lastly, Paizo doesn't have to do battle with WotC. They are a much smaller company and can "survive" on much smaller sales numbers that WotC can. Also, the game systems are not mutually exclusive. Some folks can play PRPG and 4E without any problems, not having to "choose sides" as it were.

I certainly hope that Pathfinder experiences sustainable success. I think the folks at Paizo know a few things about game design and about what their customers want.

Dark Archive

I already know of several groups which will be switching to Pathfinder rather than 4th edition. My own DM is going to switch our Forgotten Realms/Spelljammer campaign over to Pathfinder when the core rules come out. If only a third of the people who downloaded the Alpha rules set buy the book that will still be 50,000 units sold in the first production run. That would be good even by WOTC standards.

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Charter Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber

*nods*

Aside from what everyone is saying 3P is also there for Paizo's own product line. People that like Golarion will want 3P, friends of people that want to continue to play Golarion may be swayed to get the Pathfinder RPG book.

That said, anyone that buy 3P who is NOT a customer of Paizo's already is just icing on the cake.

Sovereign Court

I'm icing? Yay!

My DM has liked Paizo and their adventures for quite some time, and has brought me on board to become an enthusiastic paizo fan.

:)

I'm really liking what I see, that's for sure!

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Charter Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
Jess Door wrote:
I'm icing? Yay!

I just meant that the existing customer base has to accept it. If we don't, then it won't survive. Everyone currently not buying Pathfinder stuff that gets 3P is extra IMHO. :)

Paizo Employee Chief Technical Officer

Jess Door wrote:

I'm icing? Yay!

My DM has liked Paizo and their adventures for quite some time, and has brought me on board to become an enthusiastic paizo fan.

:)

I'm really liking what I see, that's for sure!

I'll cheer for icing!


If we vote with our dollars (or other, more valuable currencies) we can make Pathfinder a success. Table-top gamers have always been a niche crowd, considered by many to be geeky. I LIKE being geeky. However, now I can have a side order of subversive, anti- big business coolness with my platter of D&D geekiness.

I will have fond memories of WotC, but they burned me too often. I was mad at having to upgrade to 3.5, but at least it was an improvement. But taking Dragon Magazine away and this 4ed fiasco is something I cannot forgive.

I'm voting for change. Paizo is a great company that deserves to survive.


I know that PF is going to put out a monster manual, but does anyone know if it is going to reprint all of the OGL monsters from 3.5 or is it just going to be new stuff for PF?

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Pathfinder Accessories Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber
Blackdragon wrote:
I know that PF is going to put out a monster manual, but does anyone know if it is going to reprint all of the OGL monsters from 3.5 or is it just going to be new stuff for PF?

If I recall the reply from James Jacobs correctly (sorry, my search fu is weak): "No SRD monster left behind!" is the plan.

[EDIT] Found it: Linky

Jon Brazer Enterprises

Keith Symcox wrote:
Since you are going to have to fight against WOTC and their muscle to get this system accepted,

I've never understood this line of thinking. Ever. I mean its like saying, "Applebees is not a success because they are not as big as McDonalds. McDonalds can put them out of business." Well that is completely rediculis. People leave Dungeons and Dragons for many reasons. The newest is that the current version is not to their liking. Those customers are no longer WotC customers and a dollar to Paizo doesn't mean a dollar lost to WotC. WotC already lost that dollar, and they are not getting it back. The only question is if it is going to Paizo or Green Ronin or Blizzard or Applebees or Indiana Jones or a stripper? A dollar for Paizo means Paizo EARNED it. Wizards forgot that they need to earn their income along the way and just assumed their old audiance will continue on. I hope no one loses their job over at Wizards, but I would not be surprised if layoffs or downsizing begins before March '09.


DMcCoy1693 wrote:
The only question is if it is going to Paizo or Green Ronin or Blizzard or Applebees or Indiana Jones or a stripper?

Hm... if I pay a stripper, and she goes and buys Paizo stuff, that's a double win, right? Can I pay strippers with baizo stuff? Would be sexy, wouldn't it? She drops the top, I put a folded GameMastery module in into her string tanga, instead of a bank note.

I can see a whole new way of strippers advertising here ;-)

DMcCoy1693 wrote:
I hope no one loses their job over at Wizards, but I would not be surprised if layoffs or downsizing begins before March '09.

Call me cold-hearted, but their PR-department needs to be fired. I'm sure 4e could have been promoted without antagonising lots of people. I'm sure that cost them more than a few customers.

Scarab Sages

Mmmmm...icing.


Aberzombie wrote:
Mmmmm...icing.

...and strippers.


mempter wrote:
Aberzombie wrote:
Mmmmm...icing.
...and strippers.

I'm sure we find a way to combine the two!

Scarab Sages

KaeYoss wrote:
Can I pay strippers with Paizo stuff? Would be sexy, wouldn't it? She drops the top, I put a folded GameMastery module in into her string tanga, instead of a bank note.

That's a bit bulky; would affect her balance.

I can see myself sliding Item Cards, and Crit Deck cards in there.

How about the Harrow cards?

"I predict...<turn card>...you will get lucky tonight, my dear. Veeeerry lucky!"

Dark Archive

Wow... didn't see that turn coming!

Hawr.

Shadow Lodge

KaeYoss wrote:
Call me cold-hearted, but their PR-department needs to be fired. I'm sure 4e could have been promoted without antagonising lots of people. I'm sure that cost them more than a few customers.

I don't want to side track this whole conversation... personally the problems didn't stem from marketing. Marketing did a decent job. Marketing is the guys who put together "Rawr, I'm a monster". Love it or hate it it's a very effective little movie/ advert.

Marketing didn't miss deadlines, marketing didn't flip flop on the whole GSL/ OGL issue for over 18 months, marketing didn't put silly one size fits all pricing on the DDi, nor did marketing put together a bunch of tools for the DDi that are as appealing as a goblin roomate. The extended 'preview' of DDI and the death of Dragon magazine and Dungeon magazine cannot be laid at the feat of the marketing department. Eliminating 2 core races and multiple core classes was not a call by marketing either.

In general, there were a lot of screw ups... but contrast to the rest of the mess, marketing did awesome.

-- Dennis


0gre wrote:


In general, there were a lot of screw ups... but contrast to the rest of the mess, marketing did awesome.

-- Dennis

Yeah, if you look at the best-seller lists, 4E is selling very well.

Shadow Lodge

Steerpike7 wrote:
Yeah, if you look at the best-seller lists, 4E is selling very well.

Indeed. I was just trying to point out that while there were many screw ups, marketing (PR) seems to have done Ok.


0gre wrote:


Indeed. I was just trying to point out that while there were many screw ups, marketing (PR) seems to have done Ok.

I agree. They've done nice work with the launch on the marketing side.


OldGeek wrote:

If we vote with our dollars (or other, more valuable currencies) we can make Pathfinder a success. Table-top gamers have always been a niche crowd, considered by many to be geeky. I LIKE being geeky. However, now I can have a side order of subversive, anti- big business coolness with my platter of D&D geekiness.

I will have fond memories of WotC, but they burned me too often. I was mad at having to upgrade to 3.5, but at least it was an improvement. But taking Dragon Magazine away and this 4ed fiasco is something I cannot forgive.

I'm voting for change. Paizo is a great company that deserves to survive.

That's what happened to me also, except most of my hate to WotC comes from the destruction brought to Forgotten Realms.


Alediran wrote:


That's what happened to me also, except most of my hate to WotC comes from the destruction brought to Forgotten Realms.

I'm actually going to look at 4E Realms because of the changes. I thought FR was a mess previously. Just goes to show, no matter what gaming companies do they're going to irritate a certain number of people :)

The Exchange

As for the SRD Monster Conversion

It is being worked on over at the Pathfinder RPG Yahoo group

http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/pathfinder_rpg_group

Check it out

We are 66 strong and growing

Rich


Steerpike7 wrote:
Alediran wrote:


That's what happened to me also, except most of my hate to WotC comes from the destruction brought to Forgotten Realms.
I'm actually going to look at 4E Realms because of the changes. I thought FR was a mess previously. Just goes to show, no matter what gaming companies do they're going to irritate a certain number of people :)

The issue is they irritated the folks buying the books.......and thats just stupid if ya ask me. I can't even buy realms novels now so yeah I dislike that move bigtime...not my realms just using the name.


Crow81 wrote:

As for the SRD Monster Conversion

It is being worked on over at the Pathfinder RPG Yahoo group

Pathfinder yahoo group

Check it out

We are 66 strong and growing

Rich

fixed that for ya


Steerpike7 wrote:
Alediran wrote:


That's what happened to me also, except most of my hate to WotC comes from the destruction brought to Forgotten Realms.
I'm actually going to look at 4E Realms because of the changes. I thought FR was a mess previously. Just goes to show, no matter what gaming companies do they're going to irritate a certain number of people :)

If you irritate most of your old customers to attract new customers, you've done something wrong.

They could have made a new setting, one tailor-made to 4e. But instead, they chose to destroy their most successful setting.

0gre wrote:
KaeYoss wrote:
Call me cold-hearted, but their PR-department needs to be fired. I'm sure 4e could have been promoted without antagonising lots of people. I'm sure that cost them more than a few customers.
I don't want to side track this whole conversation... personally the problems didn't stem from marketing. Marketing did a decent job.

Whatever. What I'm saying is that they should find the perps, and then fire the perps. Out of a cannon into the sun, preferably. >:)


KaeYoss wrote:


They could have made a new setting, one tailor-made to 4e. But instead, they chose to destroy their most successful setting.

That probably would have been more sensible. I think Fr needed to be blown up, but I refuse to play in FR to begin with so I'm not a customer for that setting. Of course it seems to me a lot of pre-existing FR might not mesh well with 4E, so maybe that's the reason for the reset?


KaeYoss wrote:


If you irritate most of your old customers to attract new customers, you've done something wrong.

It depends if those irritated old customers are actually driven away or if they complain loudly and then buy the product anyway. :-)

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Charter Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
Steerpike7 wrote:
That probably would have been more sensible. I think Fr needed to be blown up, but I refuse to play in FR to begin with so I'm not a customer for that setting. Of course it seems to me a lot of pre-existing FR might not mesh well with 4E, so maybe that's the reason for the reset?

Wrong, FR would have meshed better in 4e then it did in 3e.

For starters, you have an epic level system off the bat. You didn't have that in 3.5. Thus, Realms had it's own epic rules for months.

Sure there's the argument about Mystra forbidding spells over level 9. But why don't they exist in other setting? It a silly statement that's out of game context. It could have just be retcon'd to forbidding spells over level 30.. because let's face it, the high level spells of AD&D and 3E are still the high level spells of 4E.

ON TOP OF THAT..

They're releasing all the Realms supplements at once, 3-4. And then they're done with the Realms. No more Realms supplements. They move onto Eberron for a couple of books and then to probably Dragonlance. I don't want to hear about DDI, if it's on DDI it's not at my game table and there's no way DDI can cover the amount of material required to play in some place as big as Waterdeep in 4e.

With 3-4 supplements, one must ask why the 100 year leap. That basically means no region books. No book for Waterdeep, no book for the North, no conversion to replace the AD&D books we STILL had to use for 3e.

What Spell Plague comes down to is they have editors working in their novel department that don't know anything about the Realms. They hire authors who know even less then the editors about Realms. They either don't have an AD&D library or haven't read or referenced said library in over a decade nor do they require their authors and editors to be up-to-date with at least the latest 3e Realms offerings. The number of contradictions and continuity breaks in their 3e supplement line is all the evidence that's needed.

The Realms will push on in the novels. It will be a a world that uses the same locations only in name because a 100 years have gone by. The people and places will have changed and will be difficult to play in because there's no supplement support for game play.

Let's hope the dream of a Drizzt movie never happens. It will be very difficult for Wizards to market their RPG stuff when all of Drizzt's companions have died of old age (or Spell Plague) in the current version of the setting.

Shadow Lodge

hogarth wrote:
KaeYoss wrote:


If you irritate most of your old customers to attract new customers, you've done something wrong.
It depends if those irritated old customers are actually driven away or if they complain loudly and then buy the product anyway. :-)

I, as well as my entire regular gaming group (which totals 8 people) have been driven away.

Other than what I spent on KotS, all pre-orders have been canceled, and we've pretty much agreed that if we start to look outside D&D, it'll be a different company altogether. We're all fairly grassroots in how we operate, and honestly, a boycott with our gaming dollars is a great way to tell WotC what we think of their marketing methods.

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Pathfinder Accessories Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber
SirUrza wrote:
Let's hope the dream of a Drizzt movie never happens. It will be very difficult for Wizards to market their RPG stuff when all of Drizzt's companions have died of old age (or Spell Plague) in the current version of the setting.

Oh, come off it. With the amount of self-indulgent navel-gazing he gets up to they could set it on his deathbed and have a quintology that only occurs in flashback.


My entire group has abandoned WoTC due to the changes to the Realms and the fact that 4e looks like a video game booklet. Right now I have 7 players in my group, 3 of which run games for other goups, for a total of 19 gamers I know for a fact will not be purchasing any more WoTC material. We plan on giving the Pathfinder line a shot, I definitely like what ive seen thus far, so Paizo just got about 20 new customers.

Liberty's Edge

and that list is growing...I have 11 in my gaming group, and 9 have said goodbye to WotC...2 run other gaming groups for a total of 20 or so that are Pathfinders now...I also have a bit of influence (on an online gaming site, where Im talking Pathfinder up every chance I get...a handful are interested....

My thoughts are, a company that doesnt act like they care about there oldest fanbase, and goes solely after the new crowd....doesnt deserve the loyalty....Gygax and crew would have turned over in the grave at how the creation of 4e went down...

nuff said.

no more doom and gloom for me....let me stalk the forests and dark places of Glorantha as a Pathfinder now.


Anyone here who has read some of the myriad threads on 4th editions coming will likely recognize me as being a bit of a doomsayer. No, I didn't know exactly what was going on with the system, but that wonderful customer service attitude did it all for me. And this is a perfect example.

WoTC's Customer Service Philosophy

This is how I always felt and was a absolutely sure way to lose me as a customer.

I have looked at the 4th edition books and have been absolutely amazed by the system. It obviously took a great deal of effort to create, what I feel is such a complete lackluster and mediocre system.

This is my take

Paizo and Pathfinder has my total support. They have been for the past year been getting most/all of my gaming business. I have an enormous 3.5 library and I have a impressionable friend who is rather taken with 4th edition (much to my chagrin) so it is likely my library will expand to include every 3.5 book in print. All that shall be devoted to Pathfinder.

Party if you love Paizo!


hogarth wrote:
KaeYoss wrote:


If you irritate most of your old customers to attract new customers, you've done something wrong.
It depends if those irritated old customers are actually driven away or if they complain loudly and then buy the product anyway. :-)

I've been pretty consistently gaming since '81. Personally, it feels not so much like being driven away as being left behind when the game completely changed directions. My old group will get together in a couple weeks and give 4e a whirl, but I'm pretty sure how that's going to turn out. That'll probably end up with another 12-15 long term players switching to Pathfinder, many of whom started gaming in the early '80s, some in the '70s.

I didn't leave D&D. D&D left me.


hogarth wrote:
KaeYoss wrote:


If you irritate most of your old customers to attract new customers, you've done something wrong.
It depends if those irritated old customers are actually driven away or if they complain loudly and then buy the product anyway. :-)

Look around here. Since they announced their plans for the Realms, a lot of people promptly relocated to Golarion. Others probably left D&D for good. I can't give any representive numbers, but I'm not the only one who completely stopped buying anything from hasbro/wizards.

Liberty's Edge

I think we can expect to see Paizo around for a long while. Pathfinder itself is an ambitious project, and there are certainly people that won't find it to their taste. But the fact is we have another year before it will be released, and during that year we will have the chance to continue to provide input on what we like and what we don't.

The people who post on these boards are not a representative sample of gamers. If you're here, you're probably not a 'casual gamer', for instance. But the truth is most of the money is going to be made from the DM anyways (80/20 rule) - 80% of the material bought by 20% of the users - and the DM is almost always in that 20%. With that being the case, if they have a large number of DMs (and it seems they do) it is quite likely that they'll continue to do well.

Liberty's Edge

I bought the 4th ed core books and I'm kicking myself now for dropping the dough. Someone said earlier it "reads like a video game booklet" and that couldn't be any closer to the truth.

The next year will be interesting for sure. I run two home games and was quite excited to get my hands on 4th ed and convert over the players. After watching their reactions to the new edition sent me on a search, hence the reason I'm here. I've already printed off the alpha and showed it to my gaming groups, which adds up to 12 people. All 12 whole-heartedly WANT to change to Pathfinder rules and are excited about the edits made to 3.5.

4th ed made good changes, such as passive perception, movement squares and getting rid of some skills and clumping others, but the rest wasn't the style of game that has always attracted me to the D&D.

I'm sure they'll do well with the newer customers, but I'm afraid they've lost several old gamers who buy LOTS of supplement material. The type of gamers who actually have jobs and can spend the bread.

Paizo Employee CEO

DeadDMWalking wrote:
The people who post on these boards are not a representative sample of gamers. If you're here, you're probably not a 'casual gamer', for instance. But the truth is most of the money is going to be made from the DM anyways (80/20 rule) - 80% of the material bought by 20% of the users - and the DM is almost always in that 20%. With that being the case, if they have a large number of DMs (and it seems they do) it is quite likely that they'll continue to do well.

This reminds me of a similar story about my time at WotC/Hasbro. I was the Brand Manager for Star Wars at WotC and also a bit of a Star Wars supercollector. Hasbro had been screwing us serious collectors over in their various decisions. When I asked them why, they said that most of their customers are kids and that they had to appeal to them first and foremost. I spent the better part of a year arguing that collectors were actually a much larger part of their market than they thought but Hasbro just couldn't grok that.

So I went to Lucasfilm and made my pitch to them. They finally decided to cosponsor a big survey of Star Wars customers along with Hasbro. What they found out shocked the heck out of them! Like they thought, about 70% of their customers were kids, but those kids only spent about $45 per year on Star Wars. The collectors, on the other hand, spent closer to $300 per year. So when you looked at their total volume of dollars coming into their coffers, the collectors made up for 75% of it! Ever since, they have done a lot more product aimed at the collectors and it has been a good time to collect Star Wars.

I think the same discrepancy exists between DMs and players. Except I bet the dollar difference is even higher! But I'm sure WotC knows this because we used to talk about it all the time while I worked there. It was great to have a product that appealed to players and DMs, because you would sell a heck of a lot more of those, but the bottom line is that DMs make up a disproportionate part of your sales.

-Lisa


4E is a very fun game to play. Yes, the PHB "looks" different and could be compared to a MMORG manual... but, if you had never seen either the 4E PHB or the 3.5 PHB, would you think the 3.5 PHB also looked like a MMORG manual with the pages and pages of spells at the end of the book? How about the Spell Compendium? Or the Magic Item Compendium?

Hey, if you don't like 4E, that's fine, but I've seen so many bogus arguments on this board of why 4E sucks, it's just ridiculous. Someone said they didn't like the art. Whatever, the art is WAAAY better in the 4E books than the 3.5 books. "The book looks like a MMORG book." I contend, no more so than a 3.5 book.

If you don't like what they did to the Realms, awesome! That's a REAL reason, and I commend you for having a real reason. Of course, it hasn't come out yet, so I'm not sure you can really say you hate what they've done until it's produced, but, with the 100 year advancement, sure, I'll buy that it'll probably suck.

If you hate the loss of Vancian magic, awesome! That's another REAL reason.

But vague comments about how it's "not D&D" are, in my opinion, totally bogus. If you've played the game, you know that NOTHING has changed as far as roleplaying goes AND the combat system is just plain super freaking fun. Way more interesting than 3.5 combat.

Although, KotS *is* a really crappy module. The story just plain sucks. Too bad they weren't smart enough to put out a decent adventure at the beginning. That will likely turn off a lot of people who would otherwise see this as a GREAT game.

Paizo Employee Director of Brand Strategy

SRD monster conversions can also be found at PathfinderWiki, under the PRPG portal.


I like 4E in some ways, they made some good changes. The at will powers are great, especially the spells that can be used outside of combat as a break from "Vancian Magic". The compounding of skills into broader categories, and making "Detect Magic" a skill, that was good. Lots of other things I can list here...

But it just lost the feel of "D&D". At least so far. It's too combat oriented. Too bland outside of a fight. The paradigm has shifted somehow. Over time I may change my opinion, but for now, I'm just not as impressed as I was with the last edition.

And I work in a game store. This is tragic. At least I'm a decent enough salesman/actor to keep up appearances.

Scarab Sages

Rauol_Duke wrote:
Also, the game systems are not mutually exclusive. Some folks can play PRPG and 4E without any problems, not having to "choose sides" as it were.

Are you sure the exclusivity of the GSL doesn't also extend to the players? Maybe it says in there somewhere that you will not be welcome to purchase the core 4e books if you still intend to play any other system... ;)

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Charter Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
DeadDMWalking wrote:
But the truth is most of the money is going to be made from the DM anyways (80/20 rule) - 80% of the material bought by 20% of the users - and the DM is almost always in that 20%. With that being the case, if they have a large number of DMs (and it seems they do) it is quite likely that they'll continue to do well.

I don't believe this to be the case at all. Perhaps for casual players, but many DMs don't buy adventures, and those are for DMs only.. or did you forget WHY Wizards stopped making adventures for a long while? Wizards tried to do Forgotten Realms adventures, guess what happened, no one bought them.

How many 3.5 hardcovers came out that didn't have Monster Manual or Expedition in the title that were geared for DMs?

One.

Magic Item Compendium, and I know plenty of players that bought that.

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