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Milady threatens to kick the lobster: "Bad lobster!", making it Flat-Footed for Variel.

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Hookie paddles furiously as Variel punches the lobster. The first attack bounces off its exoskeleton, but Milady's diztraction allows Variel to punch it in the eye.
Round 1/2!
Milady
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-7 hp)
Hookie
Variel
Regus

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Milady starts to sing, bolstering everyone's courage, and inspiring them!
"Lobster lobster!
Boil it and eat with butter!"
+1 status bonus to attack rolls, damage rolls, and saves against fear effects.
And then she waves her hands around and casts one of her hair pints at the lobster--
Telekinetic Projectile, piercing damage so it seems the only drawback is that "piercing ranged attacks made by an underwater creature or against an underwater target have their range increments halved", so 15 feet should be fine.
Spell Attack w. IC: 1d20 + 8 + 1 ⇒ (11) + 8 + 1 = 20
Piercing: 1d6 + 4 + 1 ⇒ (3) + 4 + 1 = 8
1 action - Inspire Courage
2 actions - Cast Cantrip

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Assuming I can bend down and stab from the raft.
Regus moves to stand next to Hookie and draws his dagger. He then leans over and pokes at the big lobster.
1 action: Stride
1 action: Draw dagger
1 action: Strike
Attack: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (8) + 6 = 14
Pierce Damage: 1d6 + 3 ⇒ (2) + 3 = 5

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Regus stabs into the water and catches a little exoskeleton. Milady sends a hair pin into the lobster's soft maw.
A second lobster rises out of the water to the north - it catches Milady flat-footed, proverbially speaking.
Claw, Slashing, FF: 1d20 + 9 - 2 + 2 ⇒ (12) + 9 - 2 + 2 = 21
Slashing: 1d6 + 3 ⇒ (6) + 3 = 9 pkus Grab
And grabs Milady! Milady needs to make a DC 17 Fort save.
It then constricts Milady (automatic hit).
Bludgeoning: 1d6 ⇒ 4
A separate DC 17 basic Fortitude save, please.
Round 2!
Milady (-9 hp, Fort vs poison, basic Fort vs Constrict 4 hp)
Green
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-15 hp)
Hookie
Variel
Regus

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"Ouch!"
As the lobster pinches, Milady, she tries to fight off the poison--
Fortitude, Expert: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (14) + 8 = 22
--and then the constriction.
Fortitude, Expert: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (6) + 8 = 14
So 9+4 HP dam'

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You got the more important one. Now just a Reflex save to avoid getting dunked into a jar of butter.
Round 2!
Milady (-13 hp)
Green
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-15 hp)
Hookie
Variel
Regus

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Ixlilton, barely avoiding the orange lobster's pincer, draws his weapon (Interact) and stabs twice (Strike, Strike) at the overgrown crustacean while floating in the water!
"Damn it all! I'm really starting to dislike seafood!"
Longsword Strike (P): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (11) + 9 = 20
Longsword Strike (P): 1d20 + 9 - 5 ⇒ (10) + 9 - 5 = 14
Longsword Dmg (P): 1d8 + 4 ⇒ (4) + 4 = 8
Longsword Dmg (P): 1d8 + 4 ⇒ (3) + 4 = 7

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Reflex, Trained: 1d20 + 5 ⇒ (9) + 5 = 14

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Milady: I was just kidding about the Reflex save - sorry for any confusion!
Ixlilton (and Variel), as you're now threatened, you'll need to make a Swim check as one of your actions or begin sinking. The Athletics DC is 10 (calm water) but it does take an action to swim (you can move up to 10' as part of making that Swim check). You can also choose to not Swim, which means you will begin sinking. You'll then use 1 breath and sink 10 feet.
Milady: I had originally assumed you didn't need to make this check, as you're being carried. But I need to look up the exact rules, I've never played - or GMed - with a hireling before.

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The Hireling is just a way to add a Skill.
Milady suffers anything she would if she had to roll the Skill.
You have recruited a non-combat hireling who can assist you with a certain set of skill checks. This ally performs the selected skills with a total modifier equal to 2 + your level, and they are considered trained in the skills. You must expend any actions and be in range to perform the action yourself, and any consequences of these actions affect you (such as falling when using Athletics to Climb).

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I would like to use my Glimpse of Redemption Reaction on Milady's behalf.
Your foe hesitates under the weight of sin as visions of redemption play in their mind’s eye.
The foe must choose one of the following options:
-The ally is unharmed by the triggering damage.
-The ally gains resistance to all damage against the triggering damage equal to 3. After the damaging effect is applied, the enemy becomes enfeebled 2 until the end of its next turn.
"Hey! Take your claws off of her! There are surely better things you could be doing with your life."

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Milady's action is too far back to retcon but next turn please make a Swim check.
Ixlilton strikes once and Swims once.
Regus ameliorates damage. I'll post it later, gotta run.

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Athletics, Swim: 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (19) + 4 = 23
Chippendale holds Milady tight with one hand, and moves along with the other hand...

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Edit, oh right, I don't have mm prepared
I cast sleep on green sleep will save is 17

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Sorry, was at the park with my kids and they crashed into each other.
Milady takes 3 less damage and Green is Enfeebled 2 for 1 round.
Milady: the Swim check needs t9 be made on your turn and it costs an action.
Gazard sings a lobster lullaby.
Will: 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (1) + 4 = 5
The green lobster falls asleep. Note that Milady is still Grabbed.
Orange grabs at 1d4 ⇒ 2 Regus.
Claw: 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (3) + 9 = 12
Slashing: 1d6 + 1 ⇒ (6) + 1 = 7 plus Grab
And 1d3 ⇒ 3 Variel.
Claw, Slashing, MAP vs FF: 1d20 + 9 - 2 - 5 ⇒ (14) + 9 - 2 - 5 = 16
Slashing: 1d6 + 1 ⇒ (1) + 1 = 2 plus Grab
Variel is grabbed! (I've been forgetting to apply it but swimmers are FF)
DC 17 Fortitude vs poison
It then Constricts.
Bludgeoning: 1d6 ⇒ 3
DC 17 basic Fortitude.
Round 2/3!
Milady (grabbed, -10 hp)
Green (unconscious 1h, Enfeebled 2 0/1)
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-15 hp)
Hookie
Variel (-2 hp, Fort vs poison, basic Fort vs -3 hp)
Regus

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Milady Inspires Courage--
"Claw claw
What a flaw!
Leave Milady alone
You old drone..."
+1 to attack & damage all (Escape from Grab has the Attack trait)
Chippendale tries to yank Milady's leg away--
Chippendale's Athletics, trained, w. IC: 1d20 + 4 + 1 ⇒ (20) + 4 + 1 = 25
--and does a masterful job!
|"My hero!", squeals Milady.
Nat' 20, so Crit' success =You get free and remove the grabbed condition & can then Stride up to 5 feet, if possible
--Chippendale floats some 5 feet away,
and then tries to swim off--
(if check needed?)
Chippendale's Athletics, trained: 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (13) + 4 = 17
--and get some distance--
Chippendale's Athletics, trained: 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (11) + 4 = 15
--and even more!
So: does Milady move 5 feet + then 10 feet + 10 feet?
1 - remove Grab
2 - swim
3 - swim

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Not sure what RAW is on crit successing an underwater Grab but you get 20' from the swim and I'm fine field-ruling 25' because it does say Stride. However, there's also the question of whether Escaping triggers the lobster to wake up - I'm going to field rule yes it does wake because it's more invasive than someone nudging it.

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Fort vs Poison: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (13) + 6 = 19 Success, no poison
Fort vs Constrict: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (16) + 6 = 22 Success, 1/2 damage
So 2 slashing from the initial hit, and 1 bludgeoning from the constrict.
1st action: Escape check
Escape: 1d2 + 7 ⇒ (1) + 7 = 8 Crit Fail, can't try again this turn
Variel puffs up his muscles as the lobster squeezes, but doesn't manage to get himself free.
So since I'm grabbed, I have the immobilized condition, meaning I can't take a Swim action because it has the move trait. However, since I'm grabbed, I assume that means I can't sink unless the lobster drags me down? Since I was on the surface when I started, I don't think I need to hold my breath. Regardless, since I can't move and can't escape, all that's left is to attack.
2nd action: enter Tiger stance, which does not have the move trait.
3rd action: Flurry of Blows with Tiger Claw, taking -2 for slashing attack underwater, +1 for Inspire Courage.
Realizing he is completely stuck, Variel holds his fingers like a cat's claws, and rakes across the lobster's body, trying to crack the carapace.
Attack #1: 1d20 + 7 - 2 + 1 ⇒ (19) + 7 - 2 + 1 = 25 Damage: 1d8 + 2 + 1 ⇒ (1) + 2 + 1 = 4
Potential crit there, if so then lobster also has 1d4 persistent bleed.
Attack #2: 1d20 + 3 - 2 + 1 ⇒ (3) + 3 - 2 + 1 = 5 Damage: 1d8 + 2 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 2 + 1 = 5

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Variel: I agree with all the interpretations.
Round 2/3!
Milady (grabbed, -10 hp)
Green (Enfeebled 2 0/1)
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-19 hp)
Hookie
Variel (grabbed, -3 hp)
Regus

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I misread the lobster's hit points. Variel punched it out. That means he both can and needs to use his third action to Swim, and he is not grabbed.
Round 2/3!
Milady (grabbed, -10 hp)
Green (Enfeebled 2 0/1)
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-19 hp)
Hookie
Variel (1 action remaining, -3 hp)
Regus

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Since Regus can't reach the remaining lobster from his current location he jumps into the water and swims over to it. Then he stabs at it twice.
Athletics: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (9) + 6 = 15
Stab: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (6) + 6 = 12
Damage: 1d6 + 3 ⇒ (3) + 3 = 6
Stab: 1d20 + 2 ⇒ (8) + 2 = 10
Damage: 1d6 + 3 ⇒ (2) + 3 = 5

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Regus manages to stay afloat, but finds it hard to swim and attack.
Hookie paddles the second raft away from the crowd. Hookie, please make an open Perception check.
Botting Variel's swim check.
Athletics: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (6) + 7 = 13
Variel swims as the orange lobster released him.
The remaining lobster scoots a little closer to check out the delicious children. It grabs at Regus.
Claw, Slashing, Enfeebled 2: 1d20 + 9 - 2 - 2 ⇒ (1) + 9 - 2 - 2 = 6
Slashing, Enfeebled 2: 1d6 + 3 - 2 ⇒ (3) + 3 - 2 = 4 plus Grab, Poison
Then its other claw at Gazard.
Claw, MAP, Enfeebled 2: 1d20 + 9 - 5 - 2 ⇒ (10) + 9 - 5 - 2 = 12
Slashing, Enfeebled 2: 1d6 + 3 - 2 ⇒ (4) + 3 - 2 = 5 plus Grab, Poison
Pathfinders are up!
Milady (-10 hp)
Lobster
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-19 hp)
Hookie
Variel (-3 hp)
Regus

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Milady inspires courage--
+1 to Hit & Damage to all
--and then she Seeks in a 30 foot cone (in the yellow lines) in front of her and the Goblin raft--
Perception (Expert): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (16) + 9 = 25
--moving along (the yellow arrow) if the does not see anything.

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Swim: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (1) + 7 = 8
(Don't think so. Will use my hero point)
Swim: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (3) + 7 = 10
Ixlilton almost sinks because of the weight of his armor, yet he finds the strength necessary to swim forward and stab the lobster thing one more time.
"Keep it away from the rafts!"
Longsword Strike, (P): 1d20 + 9 ⇒ (13) + 9 = 22
Longsword Dmg, (P): 1d8 + 4 ⇒ (1) + 4 = 5
(Will only use two actions: Swim - Strike)

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"You got it Ix!"
Regus unleashes another flurry of stabs at the lobster, "We're just trying to leave, go eat some fish or something."
Athletics: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (13) + 6 = 19
Attack: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (9) + 7 = 16
Attack: 1d20 + 3 ⇒ (4) + 3 = 7
Damage if the one hit: 1d6 + 4 ⇒ (1) + 4 = 5

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Milady and Hookie catch sight of another set of crystal shards, just beneath the surface. Map updated.
Ixlilton, spurred by Milady's rap, pierces the lobster. Regus, even with flanking and the rap, can't manage to pierce the carapace.
Milady (-10 hp)
Lobster (-6 hp)
Gazard
Ixlilton
Orange (-19 hp)
Hookie
Variel (-3 hp)
Regus

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Gazard will use his focus spell on the Lobster. Focus spells, don't use a spell slot, but have their own function and mechanics, they can only be used once per day.
Force bolt functions a lot like magic missile dmg: 1d4 + 1 ⇒ (4) + 1 = 5

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Thanks for the bot, forgot to check in. :-(
If I'm reading the rules right, now that I am not in melee, I don't need a check to swim up to the next lobster. Correct me if I am wrong.
Swim action to reach the lobster. Flurry of blows, then attack again. -2 for slashing underwater, +1 for Inspire Courage.
Attack #1: 1d20 + 7 - 2 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 7 - 2 + 1 = 8 Damage: 1d8 + 2 + 1 ⇒ (6) + 2 + 1 = 9
Attack #2: 1d20 + 3 - 2 + 1 ⇒ (16) + 3 - 2 + 1 = 18 Damage: 1d8 + 2 + 1 ⇒ (7) + 2 + 1 = 10
Attack #1: 1d20 - 1 - 2 + 1 ⇒ (13) - 1 - 2 + 1 = 11 Damage: 1d8 + 2 + 1 ⇒ (2) + 2 + 1 = 5

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The force bolt hits the lobster.
You have two actions remaining.
Is the wizard Focus Spell different from, say the champion's? Because champion Focus Spells can be recharged with a 10-minute Refocus action (Exploration).
Milady (-10 hp)
Lobster (-6 hp)
Gazard 2 actions
Ixlilton
Orange (-19 hp)
Hookie
Variel (-3 hp)
Regus

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Gazard: Yes, it should have been -11. I don't know what the rules are on provoking. They don't have AoOs so it's moot. Also, if you don't move, Variel gets flanking and hits.
Variel swims up (Correct - no check needed.) and punches the lobster out.
End of combat.
---
With no other monsters in the vicinity, seeking the rest of the shards is trivial. The first batch of escapees quickly boards the Rolanna's Prayer, and Daffrid pleads with you to make sure her partner makes it out.
---
You don't actually have anything to do for the rest of the day. If you're spending it at the inn, you can take 2 Medicine checks on Yuleg's daughter. Decide how everyone is leaving. You'll need to walk down a dock and face several challenges.

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Milady is quite happy: "A beach, lobster... what else can a gal wish for?!"
But would be very happy if she can try to heal the girl before we leave.
"Don't want her passing the fever to others!"
If there is healing--
Medicine, trained: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (5) + 7 = 12
HERO POINT REROLL Medicine, trained: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (13) + 7 = 20
Medicine, trained: 1d20 + 7 ⇒ (18) + 7 = 25

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Elena's fever breaks and she is fully healed. She's more than ready to leave this cursed realm and start a new life in the vast Not Sewer World.

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"Do not worry, Daffid", Ixlilton tells the anguished woman, "We'll get him out."
|----|----|----|
"I believe we can disguise the remaining refugees, but do we have any barrels left. We could smuggle them out, if they don't mind the stench."

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There are three barrels left.
Hookie is taking a nap inside one of them.

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"Just have 'em walk through the sewers to make 'em look dirty!"

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Resources mentioned earlier in the adventure: each of you has a set of papers which allow you (personally) to pass through all the checkpoints. In addition, you have 3 barrels, wagon/mules, Garrla's uniform, Flitch's disguise kit, Garrla's blackmail book, and you Forged two sets of papers which seem pretty good.
In addition to the above, you are free to improvise beyond what's directly listed here - you guys haven't been improvising much so I'll try to seed the group with some ideas that are directly hypothesized in the scenario as written: you can pass the papers back around so that multiple people can use them with a Sleight of Hand check, you can use animal form to pretend there are fewer people than there are, etc.
You also have accumulated 7 Treasure Bundles (losing Themolin cost you 3) - you can use those as bribes as a last resort, but I'll need some kind of supermajority vote as using those will lower your Treasure on the Chronicle.

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"So!
We must get Daffrid's partner, Yuleg and daughter Elena, and Garrla out,
So that is four.
Since we all have papers--
--we could use the two sets of forged papers for Yuleg and Elena.
Garrla's uniform-- either on Garrla, or, if we are afraid she is recognized, on Daffrid's partner.
And then the disguise kit on Garrla or Daffrid's partner, the one not with the uniform.
Also, we use Garrla's blackmail book to gain less attention etc. while passing when that guard is on duty.
While, at the same time, making a diversion by attracting attention.
And thus onto the Merry Mayflower and away..."

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Sure - it's 8 hours so you can do two more. But they may have different DCs from each other and from your first ones, so you'll need to specify who's getting which one.

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It's been 24 hours, so I'm just moving you guys along Milady's plan.
Forgery 2: 1d20 + 5 ⇒ (5) + 5 = 10
Variel produces two more forged documents. In the absence of instructions to the contrary, these will just be backup and nobody's holding them.
---
The team arrives at the docks to find lines of people waiting to proceed through the checkpoint and board nearby ships. Two Emerald Guards are stationed here. Garrla whispers that the more senior guard on duty is Ellvard. The junior guard appears to be just following Ellvard's lead.
"What did she just say?" Taffrit (Daffrid's husband) says, a little too loudly.
Diplomacy to Request he shut up, or Society to frame the answer in a way that won't attract attention.

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Milady smiles at Taffrit: "If I may, Mister Daffrid husband, dear Taffrit, as I would tell my beloved husband Archibald: shut the eff up!... pretty please."
Diplomacy, trained: 1d20 + 8 ⇒ (19) + 8 = 27
"We can blackmail that one!"

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Taffrid realizes the gravity of the situation and is quiet.
---
As you walk a little further, Elena starts looking ill. "I'm gonna hurl," she warns.
Deception to Create a Diversion while she vomits, or Medicine to stop her from vomiting.