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Cheliax can't possibly have a population that small, Egorian and Westcrown together already account for nearly 200,000.
Hence the use of "accounted-for" figures. The actual figures are not and probably cannot be known. But it is the case that only 338,973 people out of Cheliax's population is accounted for:
Egorian: 82,100
Barleybridge: 198
Belde: 4,200
Blackcove: unknown
Blackridge: unknown
Brastlewark: 3,500
Ciricskree: 500
Corentyn: 24,300
Dekarium: 3,564
East Rikkan: 1,295
Everpine: unknown
Halmyris: 2,400
Hinji: 14,456
Kantaria: 1,200
Khari:* 2,450
Laekastel: 14,690
Longacre: 1,590
Macini: 13,600
Misarias: 2,450
Nyshire: unknown
Ostenso: 14,200
Pezzack: 4,800
Remesiana: 19,450
Senara: 5,200
Taggun Hold: 6,780
Westcrown: 114,700
Westpool: 1,350
Whisper Creek: unknown
Windspire: unknown
And it is also probably the case that whatever the actual figures for the various powers are, they are more or less in proportion to their respective accounted-for figures, and do not change the analysis that no constellation of Inner Sea powers can possibly pose a threat to Qadira that would force it to involve itself in this conflict.
* may or may not actually be Chelish territory, sources vary
The belligerents at the start of the war are not necessarily the belligerents at the end of the war. Most likely the war will turn towards its determined outcome because some major power decides to intervene on the eventual winning side, similar to how the United States was late to arrive in both World Wars, but had a significant impact on the outcome.
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SNIPI would say that in medieval society 90% of population was a peasants. Also, due to size of Cheliax and fact that Golarion comparable with Earth, Cheliax population would 20-40 millions.
As I understand, it's a little more complicated than that. Even if it's true, none of the Inner Sea's nations exactly map to the feudal model it was developed for. I recall that 3.5 had something like it for kingdom building, but there's no reason for Paizo to be bound to it if they don't want to be.
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As I understand, it's a little more complicated than that. Even if it's true, none of the Inner Sea's nations exactly map to the feudal model it was developed for. I recall that 3.5 had something like it for kingdom building, but there's no reason for Paizo to be bound to it if they don't want to be.SNIPI would say that in medieval society 90% of population was a peasants. Also, due to size of Cheliax and fact that Golarion comparable with Earth, Cheliax population would 20-40 millions.
There isn't really a good way to estimate the population of any Golarion country other than city-states with no territory outside their walls other than maybe their immediate hinterlands (think, for instance, Kaer Maga). Estimates based upon population density are basically impossible, for two reasons. First, we don't actually know any country's land area. On small-scale maps the scale bar isn't helpful because the actual scale is meaningfully effected by distortion; on large-scale maps it still isn't helpful because Paizo's maps aren't consistent with one another. Even with the world map that now exists, nobody has actually attempted to figure out land areas. Second, what population density figure do you use? For Cheliax you might use Spain between about 1500 and about 1800, but Spain's population wasn't uniformly dense and Cheliax has a lot of waste land (uncultivated forests and mountains). And of course the population density changed over that quite large span of time as well as space.
In 1E Kingmaker, a state's population was supposed to equal hexes * 250 + settlements population, but this rule was dropped by 1E Ultimate Campaign, never mind any 2E book. One hex is approximately 95 square miles, meaning that if the superannuated and likely superseded 1E Kingmaker rule is used, any given country's population density would be about 3 (2.6 plus a bit for settlements) people per square mile. But again, this does us little good, since we don't know any country's area in square miles. It's also more than a little silly, since you'd expect uncultivated waste lands to have substantially less population than developed farmlands—but we don't know the areas of waste and arable lands either.
Estimates based on urbanization rate (percentage of people who live in cities, defined as settlements of 5,000 people or more) are a little better, since if a country has been detailed in a gazetteer we presumably know all such settlements. They still run into the problem of what urbanization rate to use, and historical urbanization rates are often not well-attested (nor is there any great reason to think they'll correspond to Golarion countries). But to pick an arbitrary example, Spain in 1500 had about a 6% urbanization rate. Cheliax has an urban population of 309,476,* and assuming a 6% urbanization rate implies a total population of 5.2 million people. This figure feels reasonable, but arriving at it relied on a lot of assumptions and I wouldn't trust it for anything.
Doing something similar with Qadira's urban population of 1,615,930** with any reasonable figure yields a substantially higher population. To take some arbitrary urbanization rates, the same 6% urbanization rate as Cheliax yields a population of about 26.9 million people; a 12% urbanization rate yields about 13.5 million people; and even a ludicrous 24% urbanization rate yields 6.7 million people. That population is about on par with Cheliax's, but to get a 24% urbanization rate you'll get such a vastly more productive use of human capital that the population comparison breaks down as a measure of power and the productivity comparison takes over.
But what do we need population figures for? I was using the accounted-for figures as a rough gauge of states' powers relative to one another (and from there to make the point that Qadira has nothing to fear from Taldor no matter how ascendent the latter is, and thus no reason to involve itself in the Inner Sea War even if Taldor gets involved), and for that purpose I don't think we need any figures other than the accounted-for ones.
Corentyn: 24,300
Hinji: 14,456
Laekastel: 14,690
Macini: 13,600
Ostenso: 14,200
Remesiana: 19,450
Senara: 5,200
Taggun Hold: 6,780
Westcrown: 114,700
** There are thirty-six cities in Qadira, I ain't listing 'em all.
But any way, there is no real logical sence that Qadira have bigger population in canon, than Cheliax. It seems very strange and odd for me.
Cheliax has seen decades of civil war and significant territory loss in the past century. Diabolism has probably also encouraged emigration away for those able to get out. None of that is true of Qadira.
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But seriously, compare the Inner Sea and Europe in terms of the number of cities with a population of over 100,000 people, the numbers will be completely incomparable.
Depends when you're talking about. With some notable exceptions (Realm of the Mammoth Lords, Lands of the Linnorm Kings, Numeria, etc.) countries in the Inner Sea Region vibe in the general range of sixteenth to early nineteenth century depending on whether you look at, say, technology (generally earlier), fashion (generally middling), or politics (generally later). Technology is generally the most determinative of population, so assume populations tend towards earlier figures as a rule of thumb. At about the beginning of the sixteenth century, there were fewer than ten cities in Europe with populations greater than 100,000, including Istanbul, Edirne, Paris, and Naples, and maybe Antwerp, Venice, Brussels, Milan, Moscow, Ghent, Lisbon, and/or London (accounting for edge cases and fluctuating populations).
In the Inner Sea Region, there are nine such cities: Katapesh; Sothis in Osirion; Kather, Al-Varish, and Demirah, all in Qadira; Yled in Geb; Absalom; Westcrown in Cheliax; and Oppara in Taldor. This is, if anything, more than in sixteenth-century Europe (but of course leaves out big Mediterranean-African cities like, say, Cairo, or big Mediterranean-Asian cities like, say, Damascus). Istanbul was bigger than Absalom to a significant degree (anywhere from about 25% to 50% bigger), but otherwise the biggest cities of the Inner Sea Region are about on par with the biggest cities of sixteenth-century Europe population-wise.
In addition, we have a good map that we can use for our purposes in the Inner Sea basin - a first edition map that includes a scale. So we can quite easily calculate the population of rural areas based on this data. Moreover, if we wish, we can take a lower population density for some territories that are especially dangerous.
That map has exactly the sort of problem I was talking about. It is a small-scale map that covers a significant portion of the world, meaning the scale bar can only be accurate on a small portion of the map. Away from that portion, the distortion of the underlying map would render that scale bar inaccurate. And we don't know which portion, if any, the scale bar is accurate for. For a map on this scale, you really want a graticule rather than a scale bar. The 2E world map which now forms the basis for the Wiki's map is better, since we know the original projection (plate caree) and that Golarion is Earth-sized, we can actually calculate distances even on the reprojected map. The map incorporates a distance-calculating function, and a dynamic scale bar that changes with the map's distortion. But no one has calculated land areas even though it is in principle possible.
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Cheliax has seen decades of civil war and significant territory loss in the past century. Diabolism has probably also encouraged emigration away for those able to get out. None of that is true of Qadira.
Well, Qadira has only been at peace since about 4600, having spent the previous five hundred years at war. Cheliax's civil war* only lasted forty years and ended in 4640. However, Qadira's war was mostly though hardly exclusively fought on foreign soil, while Cheliax's civil war devastated the country by virtue of having been a civil war.
Emigration out of Cheliax should not be overstated as a factor. The country's borders and ports are heavily policed, and with the exception of Andoran (and, recently, Ravounel), the nearby destinations aren't all that attractive. For an illustrative example of how relatively small a factor it is, Kintargo has grown by about 4,000 people over about eight years mostly due to Chelish emigration.
But really, it should come as absolutely no surprise that a province of a thriving empire is doing better on various metrics than the hollowed-out heartland of a fallen one. California does better than Russia on various metrics, for instance (though not raw population).
* Not counting the late unpleasantness with the Glorious Reclamation, which took place over at most two years but was much more recent.
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Its also important to remember that Qadira is part of the Padishah empire of Kelesh. It is a satrapy after all. If the Satrap got the war he wanted it could be just a frontier conflict with just the forces of Qadira to wage war. Or it could be with the full might of the Keleshite Empire an empire that dwarfs taldor and cheliax, and probably even if both were combined together it still would dwarf them in size. Though admitedly a good portion of it is a massive desert, but still.
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So... where are we thinking Galt comes in? They are kind of a low-key powerhouse with a big population and what one should assume to be a pretty strong baseline economy, albeit one devastated - but recovering - from a near century of mismanagement.
Galt doesn't have all that large a population,* is in a bad position to do anything other than plunge a dagger into Andoran's back or reinforce Andoran's armies, and has absolutely no reason to do either of these things. Galt's major security threats are to its regime, with restorationist Gralton to the north and monarchical Taldor to the south, but Gralton is weak and Taldor has trouble operating as far north as Galt.
* Its accounted-for population is about 92 thousand, that is, a little more than half of Andoran's accounted-for 191 thousand; their actual populations should be more or less proportional to these figures given their similar climates and institutions, and if anything Galt's true population in proportion to Andoran's should drop somewhat due to the decades of misrule.
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So... where are we thinking Galt comes in? They are kind of a low-key powerhouse with a big population and what one should assume to be a pretty strong baseline economy, albeit one devastated - but recovering - from a near century of mismanagement.
maybe galt now that they did french revolution will do the napoleonic empire and try to conquer parts of Taldor, the river Kingdoms and Andoran?
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So... where are we thinking Galt comes in? They are kind of a low-key powerhouse with a big population and what one should assume to be a pretty strong baseline economy, albeit one devastated - but recovering - from a near century of mismanagement.maybe galt now that they did french revolution will do the napoleonic empire and try to conquer parts of Taldor, the river Kingdoms and Andoran?
That's frankly ludicrous. Galt has neither the material resources (among the biggest populations in Europe and the levee en masse to make use of it) that enabled France to prosecute such a war, nor the reasons France had to do so (needing to fend off the invading foreign armies of the restorationist powers, and then securing itself from their even presenting a threat again by conquering first its own marches and then its enemies' heartlands).
I could see Galt allying with Andoran for some kind of promise or assistance, especially since their respective heads of state already have ties to one another, but only if something happens to pull them into the conflict. Without that, they seem more likely to focus on rebuilding from the revolutions and establishing some kind of internal stability. Unless the Revolutionary Council tries for some kind of gambit at uniting the populace by focusing on an external threat (whether that would work is an entirely different question).
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Unless the Revolutionary Council tries for some kind of gambit at uniting the populace by focusing on an external threat (whether that would work is an entirely different question).
That was Korran Goss's gambit, and the foreign threat he liked to posture against was Andoran. But he never followed through with this bit of demagoguery, because it was obviously stupid.
In this case the hypothetical enemy would be Cheliax, which Camilia Drannoch has already supported rebellions against, and is less of a direct risk since Andoran could be a buffer against counter-invasion. I agree it probably wouldn't go over too well, but people make bad decisions sometimes, so it's not entirely out of the question. Either way, I'd certainly be surprised if Galt immediately joined the war on Andoran's side.
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In this case the hypothetical enemy would be Cheliax, which Camilia Drannoch has already supported rebellions against, and is less of a direct risk since Andoran could be a buffer against counter-invasion. I agree it probably wouldn't go over too well, but people make bad decisions sometimes, so it's not entirely out of the question. Either way, I'd certainly be surprised if Galt immediately joined the war on Andoran's side.
There would have to be some sort of provocation or a false flag operation conducted to get the people of Galt to believe Cheliax poses enough of a threat for them to ally with Andoran.
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In this case the hypothetical enemy would be Cheliax, which Camilia Drannoch has already supported rebellions against, and is less of a direct risk since Andoran could be a buffer against counter-invasion. I agree it probably wouldn't go over too well, but people make bad decisions sometimes, so it's not entirely out of the question. Either way, I'd certainly be surprised if Galt immediately joined the war on Andoran's side.There would have to be some sort of provocation or a false flag operation conducted to get the people of Galt to believe Cheliax poses enough of a threat for them to ally with Andoran.
Which brings up the question of why Andoran would even bother. Galt is weak, and unlike other weak powers (e.g., Isger, Ravounel) doesn't even have the advantage of offering a strategic base from which to strike at the enemy. An alliance with Galt would at best offer Andoran a quite small army of militia fighting far from home for a cause not their own--thus an army that is unlikely to be useful on the offense or cohesive on the defense.
The only scenario where Galt involving itself in the war makes any degree of sense is one where Taldor intervenes against Andoran with the express or implied aim of suppressing Common Rule, because such a campaign naturally turns against Galt itself after Andoran is dealt with. But that is a thing which Taldor has no good reason to do. The advantages to Taldor of neutrality have already been hashed out at length. And even if it did, for instance by jumping in opportunistically against an Andoran which has suffered reverses, such a Taldan campaign is not one in which Galt could expect to make much difference (because, again, it is weak).
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In this case the hypothetical enemy would be Cheliax, which Camilia Drannoch has already supported rebellions against, and is less of a direct risk since Andoran could be a buffer against counter-invasion. I agree it probably wouldn't go over too well, but people make bad decisions sometimes, so it's not entirely out of the question. Either way, I'd certainly be surprised if Galt immediately joined the war on Andoran's side.There would have to be some sort of provocation or a false flag operation conducted to get the people of Galt to believe Cheliax poses enough of a threat for them to ally with Andoran.Which brings up the question of why Andoran would even bother. Galt is weak, and unlike other weak powers (e.g., Isger, Ravounel) doesn't even have the advantage of offering a strategic base from which to strike at the enemy. An alliance with Galt would at best offer Andoran a quite small army of militia fighting far from home for a cause not their own--thus an army that is unlikely to be useful on the offense or cohesive on the defense.
The only scenario where Galt involving itself in the war makes any degree of sense is one where Taldor intervenes against Andoran with the express or implied aim of suppressing Common Rule, because such a campaign naturally turns against Galt itself after Andoran is dealt with. But that is a thing which Taldor has no good reason to do. The advantages to Taldor of neutrality have already been hashed out at length. And even if it did, for instance by jumping in opportunistically against an Andoran which has suffered reverses, such a Taldan campaign is not one in which Galt could expect to make much difference (because, again, it is weak).
We have no idea of the political leanings of most important player here: Taldoggis.
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Of course, a lot of things in politics and warfare do not operate on pure logic. Sometimes a country (either it's leader or it's populace) can let hubris, fear, or anger get the best of them and get into a war that a more objective observer would consider unwise. They also might start an unwise war if their knowledge of the situation is incorrect, either through poor intelligence or outright disinformation from their enemies.
As an example, maybe the leader of Qadria is so proud that he thinks he can conquer Taldor or at least take enough territory to cover himself in glory and convinces his superiors in the empire to allow it by staging a false flag operation that makes it seem like Taldor attacked first. Suddenly, Qadria is in a war they might well lose.
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Of course, a lot of things in politics and warfare do not operate on pure logic. Sometimes a country (either it's leader or it's populace) can let hubris, fear, or anger get the best of them and get into a war that a more objective observer would consider unwise. They also might start an unwise war if their knowledge of the situation is incorrect, either through poor intelligence or outright disinformation from their enemies.
As an example, maybe the leader of Qadria is so proud that he thinks he can conquer Taldor or at least take enough territory to cover himself in glory and convinces his superiors in the empire to allow it by staging a false flag operation that makes it seem like Taldor attacked first. Suddenly, Qadria is in a war they might well lose.
The trouble with acknowledging this sort of irrationality and contingency is that it has little to no predictive value and thus little to contribute to a thread ostensibly dedicated to predicting future events. Anyone might behave irrationally for any reason (including being mind-controlled), or for no reason, and none of that can be accounted for in advance.
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Of course, a lot of things in politics and warfare do not operate on pure logic. Sometimes a country (either it's leader or it's populace) can let hubris, fear, or anger get the best of them and get into a war that a more objective observer would consider unwise. They also might start an unwise war if their knowledge of the situation is incorrect, either through poor intelligence or outright disinformation from their enemies.
As an example, maybe the leader of Qadria is so proud that he thinks he can conquer Taldor or at least take enough territory to cover himself in glory and convinces his superiors in the empire to allow it by staging a false flag operation that makes it seem like Taldor attacked first. Suddenly, Qadria is in a war they might well lose.
The satrap wants a war, it is the Padishah emperor who wants peace currntly.
The death of Gorum unleashed violence and a taste for war everywhere. Wanting peace is likely to become a rare trait, even in those who were that wise before.
And what Gorum would want from his death would be for people to finally throw down and solve that problem that has been hanging over their heads for a while. So he'd want Andoran and Cheliax to have it out instead of endlessly preparing for war, he'd like Nex and Geb to get back at it, etc.
The death of Gorum unleashed violence and a taste for war everywhere. Wanting peace is likely to become a rare trait, even in those who were that wise before.And what Gorum would want from his death would be for people to finally throw down and solve that problem that has been hanging over their heads for a while. So he'd want Andoran and Cheliax to have it out instead of endlessly preparing for war, he'd like Nex and Geb to get back at it, etc.
Might require Nex (the person) to show his mug again.
The satrap wants a war, it is the Padishah emperor who wants peace currntly.Of course, a lot of things in politics and warfare do not operate on pure logic. Sometimes a country (either it's leader or it's populace) can let hubris, fear, or anger get the best of them and get into a war that a more objective observer would consider unwise. They also might start an unwise war if their knowledge of the situation is incorrect, either through poor intelligence or outright disinformation from their enemies.
As an example, maybe the leader of Qadria is so proud that he thinks he can conquer Taldor or at least take enough territory to cover himself in glory and convinces his superiors in the empire to allow it by staging a false flag operation that makes it seem like Taldor attacked first. Suddenly, Qadria is in a war they might well lose.
Oh yeah, I think that's what I meant but I was too lazy to look up the proper terms, oops! The leader of Qadira (the satrap) is hankering for war but is being held back by his superior in the Padishah empire (the emperor himself). If he manages to trick the emperor into believing that Taldor attacked first, he might be able to start the war that he's been hoping for.
Anyway, it's true that it's pointless to speculate what would happen with extreme amounts of disinformation and irrationality since that could be used to "predict" a war between any two nations on Golarion. I just think a little bit of disinformation and irrationality can be used to explain why a country might go to war based on its existing prejudices and desires even if war isn't actually the best way to achieve them. For example, everyone knows that the government of Andoran strongly dislikes Cheliax for both ideological and practical reasons, but they haven't fully gone to war with them yet because they know that Andoran's army is not strong enough to comfortably win that fight. Add a little disinformation (not even a whole lot) and the picture changes. Perhaps an Andoran diplomat gets offed in Egorian with Cheliax framed for it and Andoran hears rumors that Abrogail has been beefing up some diabolic champions with warshards, so the Andoran government mobilizes its armies to prepare to be invaded. Cheliax notices and mobilizes its armies too, the Andoran population panics and demands a pre-emptive strike against the "obvious" Chelish invasion, and suddenly Andoran is in a war it will have a hard time winning. So I think it's reasonable to imagine how a little irrationality and disinfo might cause a country to act on its existing desires without adding so much irrationality and disinfo that countries start wars that they'd never had any reason to even consider before, like Osirion deciding to take on the Linnorm Kings or something like that.
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The satrap wants a war, it is the Padishah emperor who wants peace currntly.Of course, a lot of things in politics and warfare do not operate on pure logic. Sometimes a country (either it's leader or it's populace) can let hubris, fear, or anger get the best of them and get into a war that a more objective observer would consider unwise. They also might start an unwise war if their knowledge of the situation is incorrect, either through poor intelligence or outright disinformation from their enemies.
As an example, maybe the leader of Qadria is so proud that he thinks he can conquer Taldor or at least take enough territory to cover himself in glory and convinces his superiors in the empire to allow it by staging a false flag operation that makes it seem like Taldor attacked first. Suddenly, Qadria is in a war they might well lose.
Imagine if the emperor dies ...
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Imagine if the emperor dies ...
Considering we've never met the man, this strikes me as a narrative waste. Unless of course we do meet him in Myth-Speaker or the Adventure Path between it and Hellbreakers, which is possible. But even if we do, and even if he dies thereafter, according to the World Guide a civil war in Kelesh between rival claimants is more likely than a foreign war. On the other hand, the last time Kelesh had a civil war over the succession it did free Qadira to act independently and aggressively towards Taldor.
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I'm with Zimmerwald1915 on this. The more you game it out, the more the events required for Qadira to even think about getting involved just don't make sense as part of this Adventure Path, but might make for a fascinating AP dealing with the imperial intrigue of the Padishah Empire with Qadira possibly declaring war on Taldor as a possible consequence of failure, perhaps after we get a currently hypothetical Lost Omens: Casmaron setting guide.
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The Qadira story just seems like a different one than the Cheliax/Andoran one.
Like Geb and Nex are not going to choose sides in the Cheliax/Andoran war either.
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From A Voice in the Blight, at *68
Looks like Molthune's back on the table, to be courted by one side or the other.