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I'm not talking about making a CMB check when it's your turn. I'm talking about maintaining a grapple when it isn't your turn.
Unfortunately, you DON'T have to maintain a grapple when it isn't your turn.
While it is realistic that a blinking creature can't continue to grapple a creature over the course of the round, there is no allowance in the rules for creatures to suddenly be unable to continue grappling. An unconscious or blinking grappler still inflicts the grappled condition on the target until it either fails to maintain on its turn or the grappled target breaks the grapple on its turn.
Find me the rule that says characters can become ungrappled between participants turns, and I will concede the point.
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That's not 'realism', that's applying a modicum of common sense to a rules set that is not comprehensive enough to handle every single edge case.
Since grappling is not defined as having the target in a solid grip the entire time, I see no problem with the target having to try to escape from a randomly shifting grappler for the entire round and not just instantly being un-grappled the moment the grappler blinks.
Your definition of common sense is not necessarily common.
-There is a material difference between being ethereal and being ethereal some of the time. Blink does not "make you ethereal".
Whether the rules make sense or not, the fact remains that blink does not grant any special exception to the grappled condition beyond the stated miss chance.
_Ozy_: In the particular scenario that this dynamic arises - which caused me to make the original post - your interpretation would completely break (and render pointless) the entirety of one encounter. I understand that this doesn't mean your reasoning is wrong (although I think multiple posters have made convincing - at least to me - arguments for why, according to the pathfinder rules, the blink spell does not cause someone who is grappled to immediately lose the grappled condition), but it is worth recognizing that, at least in this one scenario, written by one of paizo's most established authors (Thurston Hillman), and developed by John Compton, they clearly did not agree with you (because if they did, the entire encounter as written would make no sense).
As I mentioned in the original post, my question was simply whether or not a Blinking creature with Grab would need to roll a miss chance twice to establish a grapple (once for the original attack, and once for the grapple attempt that comes from having grab); I'm now persuaded that they would have to do so (roll a miss chance for each of these attack rolls). Your argument would make the entire question moot, because you are arguing that a Blinking attacker who establishes a grapple automatically and immediately loses that grapple, due to the Blink effect. Multiple people have made reasonable rules arguments against that interpretation (though I certainly see the logic of your interpretation as well), and further, your interpretation would invalidate the encounter that prompted the original post. fwiw.
Did you try posting in the scenario thread? Others who have ran it might have good opinions.
I didn't but that would have been my next step but I don't feel like it's necessary now because, as mentioned upthread, the question seems quite settled to me. Blink applies a miss chance to all attack rolls, the grapple attempt that comes from having grab is its own separate attack roll, hence it gets its own separate miss chance.
-There is a material difference between being ethereal and being ethereal some of the time.
Hmm, and I would have thought it was -
There is a ethereal difference between being material and being material some of the time.The rules simply don't cover this edge case, but I have to agree with _Ozy_. If I am grappled, and dimension door away, I do not maintain my grappled status until the attackers turn when he is no longer able to perform a maintain grapple. I'm free as soon as DD goes off.
Now blink it a little harder, in that at some point I'm going to go ethereal again (and be free of the grapple), but we don't know WHEN that is going to happen precisely in a given round of 6 seconds.
Because there are no actual rules on this edge case interaction the GM has to improvise. We certainly know at the time the grapple attempt is made what the miss chance is. What needs to be improvised is at what point during the round the blink turns the character ethereal and removes the grappled condition. Since "...you spend about half your time on the Ethereal Plane..." it should happen before the grapplers next turn at a minimum.
Personally then I'd run it as each time a character acts in a manner that affects the blinking character (or when the blink character acts) roll the usual miss chance - if that triggers the grapple is broken. If a full turn passes without it being broken then it is broken by that point in time automatically. Everything else is Schroedingers grappler, but it doesn't really matter since the blinker isn't being effected.