So, for anyone who doesn't know, fights against the same CR aren't meant to be even: you have something like a 85 percent chance of winning (assuming reasonably well built characters and reasonably good players). So I am wondering, how many CR above the party level do you need to make for an even (50/50) fight?
For a party of 4, CR=APL+4 is an even fight.
The easiest way to show this is to look at a fight against duplicates of the party, which would obviously be an even fight.
For example, a single 5th level PC is (by the CR rules) a CR 5 creature, i.e. worth 1600xp. For a 4-man-party, that's 5 x 1600xp = 6400xp, which is the XP value for CR 9, i.e. 5+4.
You need to adjust for party size, though, and calculating values for each PC individually is more accurate. I suggest usign the XP "budget" method, i.e. for each PC, you find out what XP value a fight away from the party would be for the desired encounter difficulty, and add them together for all party members. A +0 encountert is PC level -4, a +1 encounter is PC level -3, and so on. Find out the XP value for that PC, add them together for all PCs, and then "buy" enemies from that pool.
If you have a party of 3 lvl5 PC (each worth 1600xp) and 1 lvl3 PC (worth 800xp), a +4 encounter would be worth 3 x 1600xp + 800xp = 5600xp, that's between CR8 and CR9.
For more on the topic, I suggest reading these two posts: 1, 2.
So, for anyone who doesn't know, fights against the same CR aren't meant to be even: you have something like a 85 percent chance of winning (assuming reasonably well built characters and reasonably good players).
If the party only has an 85% chance of winning equal-CR encounters, they'll last an average of about 7 such encounters before 'losing'. That's not good odds, and is likely to lead to a very short campaign.
"CR=APL+4 is an even fight" is correct as far as the design goes (where "even" means "50% chance of doom"), but PCs can vary wildly in terms of how powerful they are in combat, so many parties are actually capable of surviving that kind of thing on a regular basis.
So, for anyone who doesn't know, fights against the same CR aren't meant to be even: you have something like a 85 percent chance of winning (assuming reasonably well built characters and reasonably good players).If the party only has an 85% chance of winning equal-CR encounters, they'll last an average of about 7 such encounters before 'losing'. That's not good odds, and is likely to lead to a very short campaign.
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What are the odds of winning a same CR encounter then?
They should be close to 100% - quite frankly, most encounters are not supposed to have an actual, notable chance to lose, in the sense of "all PCs are dead". They are supposed to use up (a not too big part, not more than 25% of the daily) recources.
For the PCs, a single death is already a grave loss, even if the fight itself was won.
What are the odds of winning a same CR encounter then?
How are you defining 'winning'?
I've been through a number of encounters where at least half the party was wiped out, but I don't think a single one of them was less than CR=APL+1.
Based on personal experience, 100%. But there's got to be an error margin, so call it 99%.
So, for anyone who doesn't know, fights against the same CR aren't meant to be even: you have something like a 85 percent chance of winning (assuming reasonably well built characters and reasonably good players).If the party only has an 85% chance of winning equal-CR encounters, they'll last an average of about 7 such encounters before 'losing'. That's not good odds, and is likely to lead to a very short campaign.
"CR=APL+4 is an even fight" is correct as far as the design goes (where "even" means "50% chance of doom"), but PCs can vary wildly in terms of how powerful they are in combat, so many parties are actually capable of surviving that kind of thing on a regular basis.
Yeah. My group is typically capable of handling fights of CR +2/3 without it being much of an impediment. It also depends largely on the number of enemies. 1 BBEG thats 5 levels above the party? Not as scary as it sounds, mostly due to action economy. 4 enemies (to a 4 PC party) with PC wealth, PC point buy, and equal to PC level. That's theoretically a 50% chance for the party to lose in a TPK. And a much higher probability in my experience of the whole party actually losing than against the BBEG that's 4 or 5 levels higher.
1 BBEG thats 5 levels above the party? Not as scary as it sounds, mostly due to action economy.
This does depend a little on the 'type' of the big bad. A melee focused bad guy can be taken down pretty easily usually. One more focused on special abilities, particularly that effect multiple people at the same time can take out a party quite handily or end up being largely immune to the party. The whole party facing SoL saves that are 5 levels above expected DCs can certainly be a quick TPK.
That's true. It can be a bit of a luck one way or the other.
But unless the bad guy can disable 1 or 2 people each round of a fight, keep them out of the fight for more than 1 round they end up losing.
But yes, your standard save or suck spells can take out a PC each round, but there's also a strong chance that the PCs can get through all of the enemies hit points before it has a chance to do it for 4 rounds.
Still isn't a an easy fight necessarily, although to my group that normally find CR+2/3 fights to be closer to our "no chalenge CR = APL" type fight it's not very scary.
CR is not a very effective way of determining the true "challenge rating" of a given encounter. So much depends on tactics, terrain and imponderable factors like whether the PCs possess the proper tools for dealing with varying threats like incorporeals, swarms and the many highly varied spell effects that can be brought to play.
IMHO, challenging the party is an art form that a good DM needs to lean to balance and exploit.
But yes, your standard save or suck spells can take out a PC each round, but there's also a strong chance that the PCs can get through all of the enemies hit points before it has a chance to do it for 4 rounds.
I'm particularly referring to abilities that target multiple foes, possibly the entire party at once. I've seen a few nasty auras, for example.
Yeah, I've seen some auras that cause people to flee in fear if they fail the save, which results in the party bolting in different directions. Followed by an enemy with a very high move speed or at will teleport. Which results in them being picked off one by one.
Can't remember the name of the monster though.
I saw this happen near the beginning of my last RotRL campaign. Nualia...
Which should serve to underline what I said earlier, that CR values are *very* approximate, and can be enhanced or reduced by so many factors as to make them virtually meaningless. CR is a balancing act. But that's part and parcel of the DM's job.
1 BBEG thats 5 levels above the party? Not as scary as it sounds, mostly due to action economy.This does depend a little on the 'type' of the big bad. A melee focused bad guy can be taken down pretty easily usually. One more focused on special abilities, particularly that effect multiple people at the same time can take out a party quite handily or end up being largely immune to the party. The whole party facing SoL saves that are 5 levels above expected DCs can certainly be a quick TPK.
I was going to say the same thing. Level 5 wizard vs 4 level 1 guys. One fireball could likely cause a TPK.
You had me at "151 CR 3 shadows will charge the party" I can't even imagine keeping track of initiative for 151 monsters. I'm also not sure 151 miniatures (even assuming you use pennies for miniatures or the like) would fit on the board.
Er, 151 CR 3 shadows are worth 120,800xp, that's somewhere between CR 17 and 18.
I'm sure you don't need 151 of those shadows to ensure a TPK. Shadows are notorious for killing PCs, even once they have the proper gear to have a chance of affecting them.
Another good example of why the CR system is not a good yardstick.
All these calculations are assuming a fresh party. A party that has used up significant resources will be challenged by a lower CR fight.
An actual CR 11 encounter consisting of nothing but Shadows would be 16 Shadows. Let's say each one does an average of 2 points of strength damage per round; if they're attacking from all sides, they'll probably split their attacks and do about 8 Strength damage per character.
An actual level 11 party might be able to take them all down extremely quickly by channelling positive energy. Or they might not.