My rule of thumb is that a full BAB martial character should be roughly equivalent to the CR equivalent entry on the monster creation table in the PRD.
A fifth level PC fighter should be roughly equivalent to a CR 5 "brute" monster, say a dire lion. If the PC has exceptionally well planned mechanics, above average wealth, or some other boon at play then that PC may be comparable to a CR = level + 1 or 2 monster.
I think the standby for AC is that if you're getting attacked a lot, your AC should be roughly 20 + your level. I think there might be some references in the guide to the guides sticky.
That seems pretty high to me. As a martial you need to balance your survivability with the amount of threat you pose, usually erring on make combats as short as possible. If you turtle up enemies will go around you (perhaps provoking an AoO) and go after your squishier friends.
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Well, if you're a barbarian or a paladin, go soak up all the damage you want. But if you're a fighter, your AC is your best defense mechanism, and if enemies are hitting you with more than half their attacks, you're not going to be around for long. For enemies with full BAB, 20 + level means that they start out at needing a 20 to hit you, and then add to that range based on their strength and other bonuses; then you can use your feats to get damage and keep enemy's attention focused on you (or take things like Step Up to stop them moving away).
Say you're a third level fighter and your party's main front-line fighter. Your +1 full plate, 12 dex, and steel shield bring you up to 23 AC, when suddenly LIONS ATTACK!
The lion is a CR3 enemy with 3 BAB and 21 Str. This, combined with their large size, gives them a +7 on each attack. That means that they need a 16 or better to hit you - a 1 in 4 chance. Not too bad, until you realize lions have pounce and get 5 attacks on a charge - and those will get a +2 due to the charge as well, upping its odds to 7/20 (35%).
Long story short: without other defense mechanisms, 20 + level is what will stop you from being immediately transmogrified into a scratching post against a CR appropriate enemy or two. Of course, ditching that steel shield so you can two-hand a weapon will let you end the combat quicker and keep the enemies focused on you, but it also means that you better end it soon or you'll be kitty's new chew toy after a couple rounds of attacks.
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As you see already, it depends what you want to achieve and at what level...
At level 1 you can have a halfling fighter that has AC24 without too much difficulty (Dex+armour +9, size +1, shield +2 feats dodge and shield focus). Your damage will probably be only 1d6+2 and to hit +3?
Alternatively you could have a human barbarian hitting for 2d8+14 (7str, 3PA, 4rage) but only +6 to hit. Thats a max of 30hp per shot. To hit could be as high as +9 if you had a normal great axe rather than a large war axe, no power attack, rage and weapon focus. AC will be lower probably no higher than 17, 15 while raging (scale armour, dex bonus +2 as you put so much into strength, no feats for defence and -2 for rage...)
At level 5 your magus can regularly hit for +5d6 damage with a shocking grasp, spell recalled many times per day...
At level 6 or 7 your druid can wildshape in to a large animal with 3 primary attacks with a large strength bonus and do a lot of damage...
If you want a traditional melee character, if you have point buy, then you will probably want a two-handed weapon fighter with 18 strength as a base for damage. That will be 2d6+6 damage, plus your power attack.
The AC can be pretty high with heavy armour or a reasonable dex, normally around 18 or 19 and working up from that at level 1.
There is a vast variation on themes with monks and flurry, ranger with natural attacks, dwarves and half orcs with natural armour, prestige classes...
The DPR Olympics demonstrated how varied characters could be and the ac/ damage they could give out at different levels...
http://paizo.com/threads/rzs2oh2a?DPR-Olympics#1
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Well, if you're a barbarian or a paladin, go soak up all the damage you want. But if you're a fighter, your AC is your best defense mechanism, and if enemies are hitting you with more than half their attacks, you're not going to be around for long. For enemies with full BAB, 20 + level means that they start out at needing a 20 to hit you, and then add to that range based on their strength and other bonuses; then you can use your feats to get damage and keep enemy's attention focused on you (or take things like Step Up to stop them moving away).
Say you're a third level fighter and your party's main front-line fighter. Your +1 full plate, 12 dex, and steel shield bring you up to 23 AC, when suddenly LIONS ATTACK!
The lion is a CR3 enemy with 3 BAB and 21 Str. This, combined with their large size, gives them a +7 on each attack. That means that they need a 16 or better to hit you - a 1 in 4 chance. Not too bad, until you realize lions have pounce and get 5 attacks on a charge - and those will get a +2 due to the charge as well, upping its odds to 7/20 (35%).
Long story short: without other defense mechanisms, 20 + level is what will stop you from being immediately transmogrified into a scratching post against a CR appropriate enemy or two. Of course, ditching that steel shield so you can two-hand a weapon will let you end the combat quicker and keep the enemies focused on you, but it also means that you better end it soon or you'll be kitty's new chew toy after a couple rounds of attacks.
This is bad advice. And it comes from a flawed scenario. Let's take the time to explain.
We'll leave the scenario alone for now. Let's focus on the math.
Right, so at level three our 23 AC fighter is likely one handed. Let's assume for a moment that he was not a complete tool and went an offensive route with his shield. Perfectly viable.
Well except it isn't because he cant two weapon fight. He has 12 dex. So what does he do?
Well let's assume then that he's wielding a masterwork scimitar. Might as well, gets good crits and is only one damage shy of a longsword. We'll also assume 18 strength and the following feats.
1 Power Attack
1 Furious Focus
2 Weapon Focus (Scimitar)
3 Cleave
Let's say that he also has an HP of 30. Perfectly reasonable at level 3.
Now let's take a different fighter. Let's replace the shield/scimitar with a glaive/cestus combo. Let's remove the +1 from the armor and just drop it on the weapon. Again, perfectly reasonable at this level.
We'll keep the feats and the HP total to keep this experiment fair. The AC for this fighter is now 20. 3 less than Reynard's proposed value.
Next we'll whip out our dpr formula and pull out some specific numbers in terms of offense for both using our Lion's ac as the target.
Another way to write it is h(d+s)+tchd.
h = Chance to hit, expressed as a percentage
d = Damage per hit. Average damage is assumed.
s = Precision damage per hit (or other damage that isn't multiplied on a crit). Average damage is again assumed.
t = Chance to roll a critical threat, expressed as a percentage.
c = Critical hit bonus damage. x2 = 1, x3 = 2, x4 = 3.
The link to the excel sheet is here
Shield fighter DPR versus Lion = 4.134
Glaive fighter DPR versus Lion = 12.9
So by losing three ac we essentially tripled our DPR.
However since this is a question about defense as well we'll calculate the DPR of the lion as well against both characters. As in the original scenario we'll assume pounce and all the penalties and bonuses that means.
DPR of Lion versus Shield = 15.873
DPR of Lion versus Glaive = 18.315
So overall for tripling our damage we traded in a three damage difference. Is this the difference between life and death? Well if we assume that somehow the lion is doing it's highest dpr without losing any AC somehow we can do a quick rundown of how fast either fighter will drop.
Shield fighter versus lion
Lion drops in 7 rounds or 8 if you round up.
Shield Fighter drops in 1.89 or two rounds.
Glaive fighter
Lion drops in 2.5 rounds rounded up or 3 rounds if you prefer.
glaive fighter drops in 1.63 or 2 rounds if rounding up.
So in this scenario both fighters wil not drop super lion before super lion drops them In other words our AC either way means almost nothing.
However what's telling is that the glaive fighter can drop the ion in three rounds versus 8. That's 5 full attacks sooner than shield fighter will even begin to get close.
This is significant. It means that the party can blow fewer resources to help glaive fighter chop the lion to pieces long before scimitar fighter can. Really if, say, a rogue, popped behind the lion one round one and gave a good stab with the longspear the lion could easily drop on round two rather than five or six with a shield fighter.
Plus, we're assuming that the lion is winning initiative here. The glaive fighter has a significant advantage in a scenario where the lion charges since he can get an AoO against the sadly non reaching large creature (tribes in certain parts of Africa don't run around with long spears for no reason). If he was wielding a weapon with the brace feature that lion would be dead long before it could do a single point of damage to him (double damage from readied attack plus AoO).
In each of these scenarios the two handed reach fighter is crushing the shield fighter not just in offense but in resource conservation for their party. Yes, they may take slightly more damage but the amount of damage taken is insignificant compared to that which is returned to the point where combats go by far faster.
Plus Reynard's math simply dies in the higher levels. 40 AC at level 20? Without even cracking my bestiary open I can tell you that's horrifically low if you expect to survive full attacks to the face.
So, what is a good defensive number for fighters and other melee characters? Well the rule of thumb is generally having a high enough ac that you can handle not the first attack, but the iterative attacks which do just as much damage as the main one but have a lower attack number.
Ultimately the best defense is not AC but the rest of your party. A druid who entangles all the lions in the undergrowth just won the battle. Likewise a blinded lion hit by glitterdust is done. Same goes for a lion trying to attack you when the cleric just hopped over to you to drop a touch of luck on your butt (free rerolls on my attacks? Why thank ye creepy butt touching cleric!).
Now you could argue the lion's won initiative which is fair. But even then thee lion will rarely drop you in one pounce. And if they did win initiative that's a significant failure on part of your casters (my winter witch at level 1 is pulling in a +11 initiative what's your excuse?). And jsut as importantly why would they necessarily go for the fighter? If this is an act of predation predators typicaly go for the smallest or oldest of a group (at this point the halfling rogue in the group should feel nervous) because those are easier kills with less of a chance to injure them. In these cases would it not be more important to have a safer way to travel? Like, in a wagon or on horses? Or, god help the lions, camels? But I digress. The importance here to take from this is that AC is not the best defense at your disposal as a fighter. Proper planning and teamwork are your best defenses here, not a raw number that always has a 5% chance to get ripped through.
Now what are good average stats for a melee fighter in other cases? Well beyond the above mentioned rule of thumb it depends entirely upon what you do with your melee fighter.
If your goal is to punch the biggest numbers into faces as you can (Hammer) than being able to do 1/3 to 2/3 of an enemies hp is a good place to start. A lot of your numbers should be coming from buffs and good tactical positioning so don't sweat too hard if you're not pushing a +10 attack at level 3. However do try to find a good base at least that's doable for your class. Glaive fighter and scimitar fighter both had the same attack bonus (+9) the difference was damage and AC.
Resource expenditure also makes a big difference. A lvel 3 magus under these same numbers may only have a +6 but with the expenditure of his arcane pool can easily pull a +10 likewise a barbarian at +9 will draw in +11 while raging and a paladin a +12 while smiting.
However you may want to do some form of control with your weapons (Anvil) in which case the focus is not on damage but CMB. In this case attack rolls are much much more important than damage since you'll often have to beat some ludicrous numbers to accomplish your goals. Fighters in thsi case are quite good at it.
Ultimately what you want depends entirely on class. Maguses often look more like wizards when all is said and done while rangers, barbarians, and paladins may have similar stats but for entirely different reasons.
I have to agree with TarkXT on this one. Ending the opponent's ability to damage you quickly is the best form of defense. Spending too much effort optimizing your AC will at best draw fights out unnecessarily or make you an observer rather than an active participant in combat.
That said, you should take reasonable measures to increase your defense. I tend to spend more gold on defense than offense and more feats on offense than defense. For a martial character I'll always have at least 3 ranks in acrobatics to get a more advantageous fight defensively AC boost and I'll carry a shield (preferably quick draw) into certain types of combat or when pressed severely.
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Sorry guys, I guess I should have made it more clear; I was NOT advocating one-hand + shield over two-handed weaponry, nor was I saying that 20+level is a hard rule, nor was I saying that AC is the be-all end-all. I too agree that two handing is way better from a DPR point of view, and that it's generally better to boost offense over defense. I merely wanted to show that 20 + level is a decent rule of thumb from a defensive perspective for low- to mid-level play. Anyone who has less than that, without some other form of defense, is going to go down pretty quick against a CR-appropriate enemy in one-on-one combat. The shield was just because it was the easiest way off the top of my head to get up to 23 AC.
Also, I think you might want to check those lion DPRs. After the first round, against someone with AC 23 and not looking at crits, DPR of the lion would be (5/20 chance to hit) * (~8 avg damage) * 3 attacks ~= 6 per full attack. With an AC 20 character, it's (8/20) * (~8) * 3 ~= 9.6. Is it worth cutting your DPR in half to maybe last another round or two in combat? No, probably not. Is it better to disable the lion with a spell or ability rather than trying to punch it in the face? Yeah, if you're not Saxton Hale, it probably is. That's not the point. Point is: neglect your AC at your own peril. In an average campaign, 20 + level is a good score to shoot for that will get you through most fights.
PS: Note also that I'm talking about front-line fighters that expect to be on the receiving end of a lot of attacks. If that's not you, you should probably focus your resources on saves and offense instead.
Also, I think you might want to check those lion DPRs. After the first round, against someone with AC 23 and not looking at crits, DPR of the lion would be (5/20 chance to hit) * (~8 avg damage) * 3 attacks ~= 6 per full attack. With an AC 20 character, it's (8/20) * (~8) * 3 ~= 9.6. Is it worth cutting your DPR in half to maybe last another round or two in combat? No, probably not. Is it better to disable the lion with a spell or ability rather than trying to punch it in the face? Yeah, if you're not Saxton Hale, it probably is. That's not the point. Point is: neglect your AC at your own peril. In an average campaign, 20 + level is a good score to shoot for that will get you through most fights.
I intentionally gave the lion the highest numbers possible for simplicities sake. If we took into account other things the fight would still have gone very similarly.
And no, it won't get you through most fights. It will get you through some fights specifically those that are basic number attrition. We haven't taken into account the Lion's grab ability (in which case both fighters are in the exact same boat), nor have we looked at fights where AC is a non-issue (think any fight with shadows and ask the tower shield fighter in one of my groups how that worked out for him). Against a GM whose infatuated with Alchemist's fire pushing that kind of defense is suicide. It also won't help against swarms, or spellcasting characters.
AC, in essence, only helps you against raw attacks. It's only thankful that there are quite a few things that rely on them.
So, no, it's not a good rule of thumb because the math as you present practically demands I toss more than what it's worth into it and in the long run it means squat.
A better approach would be something more organic and tailored towards the class and circumstances a character finds themselves in. A fighter in a pirate campaign full of boats and water with full plate is an idiot waiting to drown. Likewise said fighter going around in his birthday suit in an urban game in with tight quarters and lots of close combat is shiv bait. Any rule of thumb like "try to have X number or close to X number" is foolhardy since X can never encompass the full range of offensive capabilities a gm's enemy can produce nor can you make X big enough in all areas without killing your party by dint of being a rock. I've done this. It's not fun for the group.