How sustainable is our current model of civilization?


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Irontruth wrote:

Social Security is not a ponzi scheme.

People think of SS as a savings program, except that is wrong. It's a government program funded by a specific tax. It just turns out that our current method of paying for it and it's spending do not equal each other.

Yes, and in opposition to the myth generated by talking heads and popular opinion, currently this inequality is coming out on the side of a profit, not a deficit.

Scarab Sages

Orthos wrote:
feytharn wrote:
Yes, I do. So you see, it is a matter of belief - and your belief and mine obviously differ.

Either that, or you have far, far greater faith in our rulers than I do.

But then, I feel that pessimistic about humanity in general. 's why I'm pretty much a hermit.

The 'either' might be contestable ;-)


Touche


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Turning the dial to pedantic, what exactly are we calling "our current model of civilization" here? Taking the failure of social security as an example (not going to happen, I know, but hypothetically), as awful as it might be, I don't think it would end our civilization. And even if our civilization (that is, what I can only call Western European Culture) ended tomorrow, the model's pretty wide spread at this point.

Are we talking about industrialized society, public education, voting rights, the internet, or what?


Underwear, mostly.


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Klaus van der Kroft wrote:
Underwear, mostly.

Does it have to be clean for me to be considered "civilized"? *crosses fingers*


Hitdice wrote:
Klaus van der Kroft wrote:
Underwear, mostly.
Does it have to be clean for me to be considered "civilized"? *crosses fingers*

I'd say that a good line of division would be the point where there are more cells in your underwear than on the body parts it's supposed to be covering.

If it's cleaner than that, I'd call you civilized, aye. If it has its own genetic profile, then no.


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feytharn wrote:

Absolutely, I guess I am just tired (not from these boards but from different discussions, too) of people quoting dead politicians, philosophers et al. as a proof for their own line of thought.

It was meant humorous, I am sorry if that didn't translate too good.

Uh, Darl Jubannich was a close personal friend of mine.

We served together in the vicious street fighting to liberate Azurestone from the clutches of the Chelish Hell worshippers and plutocrats. I got cornered by two bugbears and a quasit and would have been torn to pieces if Comrade Jubannich hadn't valiantly come to my aid.

Never have I known such a pinkskin as Darl Jubannich. Say something bad about him again and I'll throw you in a Fun-Timey Reeducation through Labor Supercenter!

Vive le Galt!


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Not very.

We cannot continue to increase both the number of humans and the resources used by each human: we don't have enough.

Our entire society is built around the expenditure of non renewable resources. Unless something transformative is coming down the pipe, we're going to be in trouble when oil runs out.

We cannot continue with every person looking out for themselves, or the organized sociopathy that the current financial markets demand out of their manufacturing arms.


Not very. We need to start colonizing space.


BigNorseWolf wrote:

Not very.

We cannot continue to increase both the number of humans and the resources used by each human: we don't have enough.

Our entire society is built around the expenditure of non renewable resources. Unless something transformative is coming down the pipe, we're going to be in trouble when oil runs out.

We cannot continue with every person looking out for themselves, or the organized sociopathy that the current financial markets demand out of their manufacturing arms.

When oil starts to climb in price, energy companies will start building and investing in cheaper fuels. Natural gas and coal power plants will replace the oil ones, and those resources will last us almost a lifetime. Ethanol and similar fuels will become standard for cars, and they will slowly phase in hydrogen-based vehicles. Eventually liquid fuels will be relegated to higher energy density needs, like trucks and industrial machinery. This will result in higher energy prices, which will drive demand for cheaper energy and hopefully pave the way for fission plants. Utalizing fission, we can power our economy while it grows for a long time. That is assuming we don't develop fussion reactors.

The initial transition will probably take about 5 years for power plants and 10 to 15 for vehicles. The transition will be expensive and will probably tank the US ecconomy and send it into a depression. It will emerge though. We have solutions to our energy needs. People just aren't investing in them yet because they aren't ecconomically viable. When energy becomes more expensive, the infrastructure will become viable and investments will be made to meet the demand.


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Caineach wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:

Not very.

We cannot continue to increase both the number of humans and the resources used by each human: we don't have enough.

Our entire society is built around the expenditure of non renewable resources. Unless something transformative is coming down the pipe, we're going to be in trouble when oil runs out.

We cannot continue with every person looking out for themselves, or the organized sociopathy that the current financial markets demand out of their manufacturing arms.

When oil starts to climb in price, energy companies will start building and investing in cheaper fuels. Natural gas and coal power plants will replace the oil ones, and those resources will last us almost a lifetime. Ethanol and similar fuels will become standard for cars, and they will slowly phase in hydrogen-based vehicles. Eventually liquid fuels will be relegated to higher energy density needs, like trucks and industrial machinery. This will result in higher energy prices, which will drive demand for cheaper energy and hopefully pave the way for fission plants. Utalizing fission, we can power our economy while it grows for a long time. That is assuming we don't develop fussion reactors.

The initial transition will probably take about 5 years for power plants and 10 to 15 for vehicles. The transition will be expensive and will probably tank the US ecconomy and send it into a depression. It will emerge though. We have solutions to our energy needs. People just aren't investing in them yet because they aren't ecconomically viable. When energy becomes more expensive, the infrastructure will become viable and investments will be made to meet the demand.

And by that time atmospheric carbon will be up around 500ppm and we'll have another 10+ degrees of warming locked in, assuming we haven't already tripped one of the serious game-changing events: the sub sea methane hydrates or something else.

Even without that, natural gas fracking is looking worse and worse in terms of environmental impact. Mountain top removal coal mining is not pretty either and the slag that results destructive as well. Not to mention the risks of drilling for oil in harder and harder to reach areas.
Even ignoring all that, our economy is based on cheap energy. If prices rise, we can access more energy, but not more cheap energy.


P.H. Dungeon wrote:
I've been thinking a lot lately about how much time we have until the civilization we have grown to take for granted comes crashing down around us. It would contend that given that it is built on the premise of ever expanding consumption and economic growth in a world that has finite space and resources it is only matter of time before it collapses. How long though? 10 years, 20, 100?

What we have now is first and foremost the result of specialization in the division of labor. To put it in very approximate terms-

If we all live as nomadic tribesmen -> that supports W level of civilization and population

If we all live as primitive farmers -> that supports X level of civilization and population (where X > W)

If we all live at the beginning of an Industrial Revolution -> that supports Y level of civilization and population (where Y > X)

If we all live as we do now, where the division of labor is highly specialized -> That equals Z level of civilization and population (where Z > Y)

Simply put, if 7 billion people on planet Earth tomorrow became nomadic tribesman, you would see massive population decline and collapse due to disease and starvation until we reach a new equilibrium where the population can be supported on the resources that can be collected as nomads.

On the bright side, even if we hit our theoretical limit in population(whatever that may be) at our current level of work specialization, the result would not be massive starvation and collapse...it would actually mean a leveling off in population. That could be painful but not disastrous.

Of course it is entirely possible we could continue to further specialize from this point forward and never reach our limit. The big question is those resources we have which are not renewable(like energy) but the good news there is that as something becomes scarce, prices rise, which means there is less demand for it. As an example, in the future if oil becomes scarce people might adapt by working from home on a massive scale, thereby reducing demand.

So back to the original post,and now asking it in a different way, are there events which could cause a complete breakdown in the division of labor?

Yes there are, and although they are low probability events, they still exist. While nuclear weapon strikes against a major city is the most obvious example, a biological weapon attack is actually higher probability because it is cheaper. One attack on a city would probably not be enough, but if a committed group could demonstrate that it could repeat the effect by striking multiple cities in consecutive order, that would have a good chance of causing a breakdown.


NPC Dave wrote:
Of course it is entirely possible we could continue to further specialize from this point forward and never reach our limit. The big question is those resources we have which are not renewable(like energy) but the good news there is that as something becomes scarce, prices rise, which means there is less demand for it. As an example, in the future if oil becomes scarce people might adapt by working from home on a massive scale, thereby reducing demand.

Cutting back on driving would help, but it's very resistant to price changes. Gas has to get pretty expensive before you quit your job to save on the commute. Some people can work remotely, but many, probably the vast majority cannot. Public transport is woefully lacking and takes money and lead time to build, and gets more expensive as energy prices rise.

Also our entire agricultural system is heavily dependent of energy. Both oil as feedstock for chemicals and for transport. Spikes in food costs are bad.

NPC Dave wrote:

So back to the original post,and now asking it in a different way, are there events which could cause a complete breakdown in the division of labor?

Yes there are, and although they are low probability events, they still exist. While nuclear weapon strikes against a major city is the most obvious example, a biological weapon attack is actually higher probability because it is cheaper. One attack on a city would probably not be enough, but if a committed group could demonstrate that it could repeat the effect by striking multiple cities in consecutive order, that would have a good chance of causing a breakdown.

As I said above, climate change. At worst it's going to be a while for complete breakdown, at least in the more developed nations. The global South will bear the brunt for quite some time. Refugees and more resources struggles will be a problem.

Dark Archive

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Tiny Coffee Golem wrote:
Not very. We need to start colonizing space.

"A new life awaits you in the Off-world colonies. The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure..."


Andrew R wrote:
Durngrun Stonebreaker wrote:
This is why I love the Internet. Trying to find all you hilarious doomsayers on street corners was just exhausting. So how many of you think some collapse is actually going to happen and how many just want it to happen?
Im sure many in carthage and rome felt like you. All empires fall in time.

I love when someone with no sense of history tries to use history to make a point. We are far from the decadence of Rome despite how much some people hate Jersey Shore or Honey Boo Boo. The race riots of the sixties were pretty bad, we got through them. The civil war was really bad, we got through them. Forgive me for not worrying over a black man in the White House or the fact republicans think you can't get pregnant from rape. There is a 24 hour news service dedicated to perpetual fear mongering but I assure things aren't as bad as they seem if you can look at things rationally. Humans have survived much worse, we will survive a little financial hiccup.

BTW, I thought this was a nerd forum. Surely you know we all survive till the year 5 Billion when the last pure human is but a piece of skin in need of constant moisturizing.


Durngrun Stonebreaker wrote:
BTW, I thought this was a nerd forum. Surely you know we all survive till the year 5 Billion when the last pure human is but a piece of skin in need of constant moisturizing.

Television forum is that way >>>

I approve, but most people in these kinds of threads in OTD lack a sense of humor.


Orthos wrote:
Durngrun Stonebreaker wrote:
BTW, I thought this was a nerd forum. Surely you know we all survive till the year 5 Billion when the last pure human is but a piece of skin in need of constant moisturizing.

Television forum is that way >>>

I approve, but most people in these kinds of threads in OTD lack a sense of humor.

Right, well I'm off then. Have fun everyone.


BigNorseWolf wrote:

Not very.

We cannot continue to increase both the number of humans and the resources used by each human: we don't have enough.

Our entire society is built around the expenditure of non renewable resources. Unless something transformative is coming down the pipe, we're going to be in trouble when oil runs out.

We cannot continue with every person looking out for themselves, or the organized sociopathy that the current financial markets demand out of their manufacturing arms.

Yeah, we need to move to a sustainable economic model first and foremost.

Here's my 2cp overall. The reason that we use vastly more non-renewable resources than we should is greed and consumerism. When I catalog all the things I consume, however, the vast majority are renewable. Cotton fabrics for my clothes, food, and entertainment. About 99% of my entertainment needs are delivered electronically. As long as we move to a sustainable ENERGY model, i.e. wind and solar (and sundry other sources) and electric cars, I'm fairly certain there would be SOME model that would allow me to continue to enjoy the quality of life I already am.

The problem is, really, all the other people *points* out THERE.

I envision a post collapse world where we all live in hobbit holes covered in solar panels, on small plots of land where every last square inch is used to produce food, and we all communicate through the internet and travel short distances to social gatherings and participatory government with electric cars. This is my utopia.

The Exchange

Radius at which a black hole forms = (2 x Universal Gravitational Constant x Mass) / Speed of light squared.

Lets call the radius the limit to which people are prepared to walk, and calculate how big a community will be based on an R value for each individual citizen.


wut


meatrace wrote:

Here's my 2cp overall. The reason that we use vastly more non-renewable resources than we should is greed and consumerism. When I catalog all the things I consume, however, the vast majority are renewable. Cotton fabrics for my clothes, food, and entertainment. About 99% of my entertainment needs are delivered electronically. As long as we move to a sustainable ENERGY model, i.e. wind and solar (and sundry other sources) and electric cars, I'm fairly certain there would be SOME model that would allow me to continue to enjoy the quality of life I already am.

The problem is, really, all the other people *points* out THERE.

I envision a post collapse world where we all live in hobbit holes covered in solar panels, on small plots of land where every last square inch is used to produce food, and we all communicate through the internet and travel short distances to social gatherings and participatory government with electric cars. This is my utopia.

An interesting talk about energy usage, distribution and how some technologies that we take for granted in the west can really lift people out of poverty.


Cotton fabric for entertainment??? Uh... Whatever floats your boat, dear...


What you read:

Sissyl wrote:
Cotton fabric for entertainment

What was posted:

meatrace wrote:
Cotton fabrics for my clothes

Reading comprehension FTMFL.

Liberty's Edge

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Pathfinder Pathfinder Accessories Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber
meatrace wrote:

What you read:

Sissyl wrote:
Cotton fabric for entertainment

What was posted:

meatrace wrote:
Cotton fabrics for my clothes
Reading comprehension FTMFL.

Technically what was posted was "Cotton fabric for my clothes, food and entertainment." Incoluding entertainment under the clause bound by cotton fabric is a gramattically correct way of reading the sentence, if one that produces weird images. I'd be more concerend about you eating the cotton than playing with it, to be honest.

The Exchange

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Irontruth wrote:

Social Security is not a ponzi scheme.

People think of SS as a savings program, except that is wrong. It's a government program funded by a specific tax. It just turns out that our current method of paying for it and it's spending do not equal each other.

Take in money from investors to repay, with more added, the old investor. And then get new investors to pay those. How is that not a ponzi?


Andrew R wrote:
Irontruth wrote:

Social Security is not a ponzi scheme.

People think of SS as a savings program, except that is wrong. It's a government program funded by a specific tax. It just turns out that our current method of paying for it and it's spending do not equal each other.

Take in money from investors to repay, with more added, the old investor. And then get new investors to pay those. How is that not a ponzi?

Because government said so.

Grand Lodge

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Pathfinder PF Special Edition, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Tiny Coffee Golem wrote:
Not very. We need to start colonizing space.

Unless you're writing off the planet, that's not an answer. Planetary management begins at home. We have to solve our problems HERE on the ground. There's no magic bullet in space for our existing problems. I do believe however that they are solvable.


Drejk wrote:
Andrew R wrote:
Irontruth wrote:

Social Security is not a ponzi scheme.

People think of SS as a savings program, except that is wrong. It's a government program funded by a specific tax. It just turns out that our current method of paying for it and it's spending do not equal each other.

Take in money from investors to repay, with more added, the old investor. And then get new investors to pay those. How is that not a ponzi?
Because government said so.

It's social insurance. Just like any insurance plan is a Ponzi scheme. The money you pay in isn't saved and used to pay you back. It's used to pay current claims. Exactly how any insurance works.


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The problem is that, while we can survive on solar, wind, natural gas etc, you don't THRIVE on it.

No country is going to survive when, with a little murder and mayhem, it can thrive. If you treat the entire planet and its population as one discreet, collective unit then it works. When you break it down to how resources get allocated, it doesn't.


Set wrote:
Tiny Coffee Golem wrote:
Not very. We need to start colonizing space.

"A new life awaits you in the Off-world colonies. The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure..."

Yup. Just like that.


Andrew R wrote:
Irontruth wrote:

Social Security is not a ponzi scheme.

People think of SS as a savings program, except that is wrong. It's a government program funded by a specific tax. It just turns out that our current method of paying for it and it's spending do not equal each other.

Take in money from investors to repay, with more added, the old investor. And then get new investors to pay those. How is that not a ponzi?

Are you going to claim that paying for the federal highway system is a ponzi scheme?

It's a government program. It collects money, and then redistributes it per the criteria set by Congress. Social Security is not a savings plan or investment vehicle. It is not an IRA or 401(K). It is a government program.

You are not an "investor" in Social Security. You are contributing to a government program that tries to reduce the burden of poverty on the elderly.


BigNorseWolf wrote:
The problem is that, while we can survive on solar, wind, natural gas etc, you don't THRIVE on it.

I have to disagree, especially if you put natural gas in there.

Alternative, sustainable energy sources have been shown that they can easily be substituted for existing paradigms to provide something like 90% capacity to what we currently produce with coal.

The remaining has to be made up by energy conservation and investing in more efficient energy technologies. I don't have the time or inclination to go into it right now, but I'm sure you can think of all the same things I have, ways in which our society uses energy inefficiently based on outmoded pre-industrial paradigms (house design, city planning, etc.) Also, the amount of energy resources used by the top 1% is pretty staggering. After we've all revolted against the bourgeoisie that should shore up our deficit ;)

Joke's a joke but, in all honesty, a proactive redistribution of wealth and resources will definitely help our situation.

And we don't have to become completely sustainable, IMO. We just have to slow the consumption of fossil fuels to the point that we buy time to think of a practical solution and replacement for them. We have a VIABLE solution, we just have to learn to use it wisely.

I understand what you mean, though, about no country choosing to cut back if they're not forced to. Thing is, everyone else is already preparing for when they ARE forced to, INCLUDING China, which is the US's chief excuse for not doing so itself.


BigNorseWolf wrote:

The problem is that, while we can survive on solar, wind, natural gas etc, you don't THRIVE on it.

No country is going to survive when, with a little murder and mayhem, it can thrive. If you treat the entire planet and its population as one discreet, collective unit then it works. When you break it down to how resources get allocated, it doesn't.

Wind keeps improving pretty dramatically, but it's still going to be another 10+ years until it starts to even be economically viable of it's own accord. The output has improved something like 10-fold over the past 15-20 years.

We also need more economical energy storage. Once we can store, and access as needed, 80% of our energy needs on the electrical grid for a month, we basically just need to match wind capacity with our current capacity and won't need to rely on fossil fuels for electricity any more.

Pumped-storage hydroelectric works, but it's somewhat terrain dependent and loses something around 30% of what it stores. It's cost effective at high energy prices during peak demand, but would be a net loss on it's own.


But if we are serious about getting energy, doing what politicians across the globe are doing today and shutting down existing nuclear plants while not building more of them is sheer insanity. We need nuclear plants, we need modern, safe ones, we need breed reactors. This does not produce carbon dioxide either. Shutting them down makes no sense whatsoever... Unless you really WANT a society where energy is difficult to come by and therefore rationed, controlled, and so on.


I never bothered with environmentalism because I figure that international proletarian socialist revolution and a planned economy are the only answer to capitalist degradation of the environment.

But now, my activist partner thinks there's going to be this big protest movement against some frickin' Canadian Tar Sands pipeline and I have to read all of this boring science stuff.

:(


Sissyl wrote:
But if we are serious about getting energy, doing what politicians across the globe are doing today and shutting down existing nuclear plants while not building more of them is sheer insanity. We need nuclear plants, we need modern, safe ones, we need breed reactors. This does not produce carbon dioxide either. Shutting them down makes no sense whatsoever... Unless you really WANT a society where energy is difficult to come by and therefore rationed, controlled, and so on.

Nuclear power presents its own very expensive and problematic issues, and they're issues that last thousands of years.

Our best bet would probably be to fund a trip to Mars for a solution sooner than later. The odds are pretty good that the advances in physics required would open up opportunities for energy solutions as well.

The Exchange

You want change? participate in it.


That would make it easier to find dates....

The Exchange

Lets see if these get a look in:

Public vote on all submitted petitions

Removal of the existing government structures for self representation


Those two are just ridiculous and you know it. You know it, because if everyone else agreed, you'd be the one guy saying no, just because he could.

The Exchange

Irontruth wrote:
Those two are just ridiculous and you know it. You know it, because if everyone else agreed, you'd be the one guy saying no, just because he could.

If they preserve the right of the individual to say no to being governed by others...they ain't ridiculous.


No, they are ridiculous. If you want to benefit from society, you get to play by the rules. If you want to live in the wilderness alone, there are plenty of places you can go.

The Exchange

Irontruth wrote:
No, they are ridiculous. If you want to benefit from society, you get to play by the rules. If you want to live in the wilderness alone, there are plenty of places you can go.

Your rules? or rules everyone agrees to?


If it takes a 100% agreement to pass a law, and all laws require retroactive approval from all citizens, that means that criminals now get to vote on the laws that made them criminals. People who are concerned about getting caught can also vote against those laws.

That means an organization like NAMBLA will vote against laws that make it illegal to molest children. With a system in place to punish them, the populace will end up resorting to mob rule and punishing pedophiles themselves, which will inevitably lead to an innocent person eventually being killed based on incomplete evidence.

Also, laws against mob rule won't get passed, because people won't want to give up their only recourse to pedophiles.

Your proposition actually lowers the safeguards of minorities, not improving them.

The Exchange

Irontruth wrote:

If it takes a 100% agreement to pass a law, and all laws require retroactive approval from all citizens, that means that criminals now get to vote on the laws that made them criminals. People who are concerned about getting caught can also vote against those laws.

That means an organization like NAMBLA will vote against laws that make it illegal to molest children. With a system in place to punish them, the populace will end up resorting to mob rule and punishing pedophiles themselves, which will inevitably lead to an innocent person eventually being killed based on incomplete evidence.

Also, laws against mob rule won't get passed, because people won't want to give up their only recourse to pedophiles.

Your proposition actually lowers the safeguards of minorities, not improving them.

But in both cases a Child molester and a mob of outraged citizens looking to lynch him/her would be violating some ones right to be ungoverned by others. So what this really does is set the bar of civility beyond the capacity of the populace to meet it, not lower the standard by which you can conduct yourselves. The thought that a child being molested is as much the fault of the angry mob in not being there to guard that child as it is the child molester who violates the child doesn't get much consideration but it should.


Nothing you just said countered my point that your system doesn't work.

The Exchange

Irontruth wrote:
Nothing you just said countered my point that your system doesn't work.

Sure it does. If you cant go without imposing your will on others that isn't the fault of the system that says you require their consent for government to function, that's your fault.

The Exchange

meatrace wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:
The problem is that, while we can survive on solar, wind, natural gas etc, you don't THRIVE on it.

I have to disagree, especially if you put natural gas in there.

Alternative, sustainable energy sources have been shown that they can easily be substituted for existing paradigms to provide something like 90% capacity to what we currently produce with coal.

The remaining has to be made up by energy conservation and investing in more efficient energy technologies. I don't have the time or inclination to go into it right now, but I'm sure you can think of all the same things I have, ways in which our society uses energy inefficiently based on outmoded pre-industrial paradigms (house design, city planning, etc.) Also, the amount of energy resources used by the top 1% is pretty staggering. After we've all revolted against the bourgeoisie that should shore up our deficit ;)

Joke's a joke but, in all honesty, a proactive redistribution of wealth and resources will definitely help our situation.

And we don't have to become completely sustainable, IMO. We just have to slow the consumption of fossil fuels to the point that we buy time to think of a practical solution and replacement for them. We have a VIABLE solution, we just have to learn to use it wisely.

I understand what you mean, though, about no country choosing to cut back if they're not forced to. Thing is, everyone else is already preparing for when they ARE forced to, INCLUDING China, which is the US's chief excuse for not doing so itself.

Gas is great and renewable. the biggest issues with wind and solar is storage, they only produce under some circumstances

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Pathfinder Accessories Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber

Gas is renewable? How the f+#! is gas renewable? It's a fossil fuel. By definition, it's not renewable.

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