Excuse the bluesy reference of my title, I just wanted to share some opinions with the members of the boards about the fate of D&D4.
I personally think, and it's totally personal and maybe stupid, that D&D4 will go down really quickly. Yeah, it's gonna flop. Big time.
The reasons? Well, as I said in previous posts, WOTC is running after too many customers (WOW youngsters and trad RPG gamers), some of whom are not even aware of D&D and don't even care about it(-and seeing the total artistic/commercial flop that D&D Online was, what's their opinion of D&D anyway?)
Second, the old guard ( I mean the guys that are over 25), the ones like you and me, who work ,and thus have funds ,and thus buy the stuff... are pretty much pissed off about WOTC right now. From a disastrous PR campaign to a total bashing of the game history, you name it. Plus we have found out that there are other companies, like Paizo, who really care about their customers and come up with a quality of material that WOTC can only dream of as of recently...
Third, the slaughter they are making of established and beloved settings (like the Realms). 99% of the comments I heard from fans have been utterly negative. And I'm not only talking about gamers, I'm talking also about people who just buy the novels and love the Realms for what it is. As well, reinventing the wheel and coming up with the 10000000000th cataclysm is totally boring...
Fourth, the marketing disaster of 3.5. Because now that we already lived it once, why would we be so sure that 4.5 is not around the corner anyway? I guess there's a lot of dudes who are going to wait 1 to 2 years before investing...and yet they won't be totally sure that it's not in the plans. So will you put as many bucks in a product you can't be certain of ? Hmmm...
As I see it, I can imagine it will start by selling quite a few units. But it will quickly go back to bad curbs on the sales charts. Because the core of the customers just won't be there anymore. And it should be painful as well when the FR campaign setting is out.
These are just my two cents. I'm not hateful or anything, I'm just trying to summarize my thoughts, and share them with you. And now for the most important? What do you think is gonna happen? Hall of Fame or Bust? Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf? :)
As I've stated elsewhere, I think those of us who participate on message boards are a minority and have a skewed view (both ways, I'm pro-4E) of the whole issue.
The majority of people are just guys who play a game (indeed many games) that they like and when they see a new edition will think "Oh, OK, cool. Let's see what this one's like." I think it will sell because the majority of D&D gamers will be out of loop on the whole furore.
Why project into the future? It's hard to see what it holds. :)
I think it will sell because the majority of D&D gamers will be out of loop on the whole furore.
I'm willing to bet the core books will sell quite well, if for no other reason then the one you mentioned. But I don't think they will sell much beyond that. I'm expecting (and hoping) that 4E is the T4 of D&D. (T4 is short for Traveller 4th Edition which was marketted as being a great upgrade for the game. The game sold so poorly that it put the company out of business [yes, that's oversimplified, but the core is still true]. Traveller fans, to this day, regard that edition as one of the biggest RPG mistakes to ever occur.)
I really dont know. Its hard to say.
When I read the Paizo Boards and talk to everyone I know personally who plays, D&D 4th edition is a bad movie and it will bomb.
However. If you check out other D&D messageboards you will see groups of people very different from here.
Ive seen threads where someone will ask why anyone would buy Elder Evils or 3rd edition books now that 4th edition is comming. Such threads will go on for 3 or 4 pages where everyone agrees and not one person will say they dont plan on converting.
Ive also gone to my FLGS looking for the latest Dungeon Crawl Classics and GameMastery moduals and being told by the store guy that they havent ordered 3rd edition stuff in months because thery are worried it wont sell.
If you hang exclusively on Paizo's boards you may be seeing a skewed version of the future.
|
As I've stated elsewhere, I think those of us who participate on message boards are a minority and have a skewed view (both ways, I'm pro-4E) of the whole issue.
Yup, polarized and over/under-informed.
The majority of people are just guys who play a game (indeed many games) that they like and when they see a new edition will think "Oh, OK, cool. Let's see what this one's like." I think it will sell because the majority of D&D gamers will be out of loop on the whole furore.
But I had a lovely conversation in person with a human at a game store...I tried to be unbiased (me?) but his reaction was "Really? Looks like I won't be getting that." The store owner on the other hand said the majority of interest he's seen comes from kids.
Let's see...who has more disposable income, me or a 14 year old?
As I've stated elsewhere, I think those of us who participate on message boards are a minority and have a skewed view (both ways, I'm pro-4E) of the whole issue.
The majority of people are just guys who play a game (indeed many games) that they like and when they see a new edition will think "Oh, OK, cool. Let's see what this one's like." I think it will sell because the majority of D&D gamers will be out of loop on the whole furore.
Then again, if I knew nothing about D&D4, walked into my gameshop, brought the copy over to the counter, and then the clerk tells me that there is a code I can use to get my "e-book" once I become a paid member of some website ... I'd buy something else.
Seriously. I don't trust it when other companies try that mess. "This video game is totally 100% absolutely free. But if you do pay money you can get access to this and this and this ..."
|
I have the feeling that it will not last, mostly on behalf of the pay-per-use DI/virtual tabletop and the kind of market audience that's geared for.
After a very good start, both the monthly fee and the constant barrage of easier-to-use (eg videogames) alternatives, will make the trend lose momentum.
Then we'll truly see how much of the older players have been alienated by the horrible PR strategy and the changes proposed and how much of the younger players will hang on with the game.
|
|
Tons of people will buy at least the Core books, to see what has changed.
Popular bits will get ported into 3.5 / 3.75 games, but will likely interact clumsily with each other, and eventually some 3.X groups will migrate over just to explore the new classes and systems in their native environment.
'Complete' style books based on the new systems / classes (such as the Warlord) will likely also sell well, if the class has enough interest built up by the time they are launched, and I could see the launch doing well, or petering out, as the material either turns out to be less and less 'usable' for players using older systems, or the 4E players realize that the new game has reverted back to it's miniatures / wargame roots, and away from role-playing. (Which some will love, and others will hate, while the old-timers who remember when Origins didn't truck with those newfangled 'role-players' will chuckle into their greying beards and go back to playing Star Fleet Battles.)
|
As I've stated elsewhere, I think those of us who participate on message boards are a minority and have a skewed view (both ways, I'm pro-4E) of the whole issue.
The majority of people are just guys who play a game (indeed many games) that they like and when they see a new edition will think "Oh, OK, cool. Let's see what this one's like." I think it will sell because the majority of D&D gamers will be out of loop on the whole furore.
I think you are absolutely correct. Also, I don't think WotC is too concerned--they are already advertising Special Editions (leather) of the 4E Core Books.
I think the core three books will sell very well regardless of what the content is inside. People who don't plan on converting will buy just to say "I told you so", others will buy because they are still in the "upgrade everything" that is new, while still yet others will buy "because it's D&D and WOTC printed it, Hail, WOTC, Long Live the King" mentality. With each edition, the later two groups get smaller and smaller. Those that have gone past the "upgrade everything" will do so because they spent a small mint on 3.0/3.5 already. The "because it's D&D and WOTC printed it" group will get smaller and smaller because many of these will shift into the "upgrade everything" group by the time 5th edition comes around, and then like many of us today, they will start grumbling just as loudly.
I think the digitial initiative will fall flat on their face as well as sales on their yearly PH, MM, DMG, and splatbooks. This will probably take a 2-3 years. Eventually, 4th edition will most likely be known as the worst edition of D&D. My guess is eventually (so long as WOTC isn't part of it" 5th edtion will be seen as the "you saved my game edition" much like 3rd edition was by those that stuck around, are sticking with 3.0/3.5 rather than moving on to 4th edition. But with people getting older every year more and more of the "You saved my game" people will get out of the rpg hobby anyway. Every year the demographics of gamers gets broken up even more, each becoming smaller and smaller. From a company as large as Hasbro, eventually, they will look at sales and pull the plug because it just isn't making money. They will eventually pull the plug because they don't see a future for rpg as compared to video games and other popular forms of entertainment of today and tomorrow. It will be better for them to start a new product than to revision one like D&D.
Computerizing D&D will just never make it. The competition is to much and any attempt to succeed would require WOTC to go all in, dropping the pen and paper aspect behind. Sales will be poor enough that their experiment won't reshape the rpg future.
The fathering generation of players is becoming more and more divided and thus will be falling off while the new generation is to divided between other interests and eventually falling into the workplace/family slot, thus they won't carry the pen and paper rpg onward. These folks don't have the time or attention to put hours upon hours into world building so they want to buy it right out of the box. This aspect of the game is deemed as work, not pleasure many of us derive from it. Thus, when the attention span wains, it goes to the closet and sits. Kinda like how many gamers of today and yesterday buy other games, play once or twice and put it in the closet and go back to thier favorite game. Everything is so disposable now.
I think 4th edition is the wounding fall which breaks the leg of the game. It will eventually heal, stand up, and just kinda limp along until eventually the first generation are more interested in their grandkids then playing a game. With this, their eventually won't be a WOTC and instead many smaller companies who will stick around as long as they can. Even when someone picks up the D&D line and starts over with 5th+ edition, only the hardcore gamers will say "thanks for saving my game" the younger audience will say "there were other versions of the game? They were lame....what was d20? Kinda like now when I hear people say..."weapon proficiences, non-weapon proficiencies, THACO, what's that? For dumb.
None of this is meant as a slam on any previous edition, I started out with 1st edition and it has my respect more than any edition after that. I currently play 3.5. It's simply intended as an observation or opinion of the consumers of today and tomorrow.
I actually am one of those who have posted a "why buy new books" thread, on this very message board, but my reasons for doing so have more to do with feeling like I'm being milked for more money while they work on 4th edition.
I'd buy the books in a bargain bin, along with every other 3.5 book there is, but now that they're not going to be supporting that system any more I have no idea why I would buy it now.
Also, I plan on avoiding the purchase of anything that's not "core" to 4th edition, though I wonder what that will actually end up being. I'm just tired of buying hundreds of dollars worth of books to play a game that really should only cost about a hundred bucks a year.
I think you are absolutely correct. Also, I don't think WotC is too concerned--they are already advertising Special Editions (leather) of the 4E Core Books.
The idiocy in this floors me. Part of the appeal of the 3.5 leather-bound books was that they included the corrected errata discovered over a year of play. There certainly won't be time to include the errata corrections in these.
I just don't get some of the things they're thinking over there.
Why buy core books anyway, when there will be a SRD?
If I want to check out the new system, most of it will be there to find for free. If it is interesting enough I maybe buy those books. Or not. Heck, I play 3.5 without the core-books just fine!
After the release of D&D 4th edition the market will split in two 3.5 consumers and 4.0 consumers. Obviously 4th edition core books will sell, at least to people to see what "happened to the game" but the accesories and adventures market will be split and that will bring hard times to WotC, I think they will sell enough to stay in business, but they won't sell they way they had done it till today. After the release of the 4.0 core books 3.5 publishers will exist alongside 1.0, 2.0, 2.5 publishers with their retro-clone systems, so the market is already shared for WotC, imagine after they abandon the 3.5 wagon (effectively the biggest and where there are the most quantities of $$$).
So I only see in the horizon bad days to WotC to the point that my augury is that they will come back to the basics in a 5th edition sooner than they expected maybe to recover what they lost or with the tail between the legs they will start "supporting the 3.5 community" because they at last understand where the $$$ are.
Who knows, many things can happen.
|
I actually am one of those who have posted a "why buy new books" thread, on this very message board, but my reasons for doing so have more to do with feeling like I'm being milked for more money while they work on 4th edition.
I'd buy the books in a bargain bin, along with every other 3.5 book there is, but now that they're not going to be supporting that system any more I have no idea why I would buy it now.
Also, I plan on avoiding the purchase of anything that's not "core" to 4th edition, though I wonder what that will actually end up being. I'm just tired of buying hundreds of dollars worth of books to play a game that really should only cost about a hundred bucks a year.
I think its been stated that "everything is core" in 4E...I am looking for the quote. Basically no splat books. Just a DMG, PHB, MM, and a Campaign setting every year. All core all the time.
Sebastion.....Sebastion.....Sebastion.....were all writing in secret code so we don't get in trouble with Paizo.
But I had a lovely conversation in person with a human at a game store...I tried to be unbiased (me?) but his reaction was "Really? Looks like I won't be getting that." The store owner on the other hand said the majority of interest he's seen comes from kids.Let's see...who has more disposable income, me or a 14 year old?
Excess disposable income doesn't matter when it comes to RPG sales.
What matters is disposable Time.The folks at WotC have already done the research. The people most likely to buy and play RPG's are high school and college students lving in the suburbs. It's a matter of time, and location. They are too far away from inner city attractions, have just enough money to buy books by saving up allowance or from odd jobs, and have so much time on their hands they can play for days at a time.
If you want a really good look at the market research, listen to the Ryan Dancey interview by Fear The Boot At feartheboot.com Basicly, teenagers are the ones who buy new books. Yes, there are a few hold outs who buy books into their fourties, but they are not enough to keep a product line running. To keep D&D alive, they have to get new players to buy new books.
Ryan explains in the interview how TSR got purchased, how 3rd edition was designed and influenced by the research, how during that process the folks at Wizards put a lot of effort into finding out who their actual buyers were.
Think about it. When you're 25+, you have a 40 hour a week job, you're probably married, and possibly raising your own kids. How much actual time do you have to role play? Do you have five or six hours uninterupted to spend on the weekend making a adventure, and then another seven to play it? Their research shows that adults don't have as much the time to play as they used to, and are much less willing to buy new books they won't have time to use, especially because they probably already own a huge collection of books that are still perfectly good.
This is exactly what happened in my life in fact. I used to run full weekend games when I was in college. I had a huge group of friends who would play friday night to sunday night, camping out in the campus library or club houses forever. We all bought books, and we had huge amounts of fun.
Now? Most of us are graduated, have normal jobs, and in some cases hae gotten married. Those who got married, vanished from the games. Now a group of 12 has been wittled down to 4, and only I buy books anymore.
We still play once a week, but it's no where near the time we once had to spend on D&D. We love the game, we might convert, we might not, but in the end it doesn't matter. Older players might have more money, but they don't spend enough money on the game to keep D&D alive.
|
My call: More of a bifurcated market. Smaller margins. An even weaker business model. RPGs are a very weak business model. Paizo does a very good job of creating high margin product, like the flip maps and item cards, and keeping the revenue flowing. Hasbro does the same thing with minis. Most OGL companies scrimp by in the margins unless they can create a core book that is comepetitive like Conan or Villains and Vigilantes.
WOTC/Hasbro should have stayed focused on selling more core books and letting the Third Party companies innovate and be satisfied with low margin product. That was the argument behind the OGL orginally and it was brilliant. It also used an "open code" model to engage the player base in building out the rules structure. Alas, I think I.P. concerns crashed the model.
So, will 4.0 make a few quarters for WOTC and make Papa Hasbro happy. Sure it will. Will D&D and gaming endure long haul... the ball is in play and I am worried I smell the end coming.
|
Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
|
A bunch of stuff from an industry insider who actually knows something of value.
Teiran, you're missing the point of these threads. You can't go bring in the informed opinions of people who actually know something about marketing and have been involved with the successful launch of 3e. No, that doesn't make any sense. You need to just make bald faced assertions based on (a) years of experience playing D&D, (b) your age (which must be at least 30), or (c) your limited understanding of what "kids these days" are really like, including their spending habits.
So stop it already. Just assert that in your very informed opinion as some random dude on the internet who has never worked in marketing that you think 4e will (not) succeed. If you must site a source, please make it as unreliable as possible, such as what your friends think or what other people have posted on various internet message boards.
Actual data and analysis have no place in a 4e debate.
This thread is ridiculous.
I was expecting it to be about oral sex.
If you don't like it, then don't read it. You should take a good course about human relations, your behavior is always aggresive and unrespectful.
If you don't like it, then don't read it. You should take a good course about human relations, your behavior is always aggresive and unrespectful.This thread is ridiculous.
I was expecting it to be about oral sex.
You will pay for that statement. You've made a very powerful enemy today. I am going to personally dedicate each and every 4e product to you. In fact, I will include a foreward in the 4e phb explaining how we weren't really going to produce 4e, but due to a well thought out letter by you, Patricio Calderón, begging us to update 3e because you thought it was "the most broken thing ever in the history of humankind and fit to be played only by feces-flinging chimps" we changed our minds and produced it anyway.
You will henceforth be known as the person who created 4e!
Mha ha ha!!!
If you don't like it, then don't read it. You should take a good course about human relations, your behavior is always aggresive and unrespectful.This thread is ridiculous.
I was expecting it to be about oral sex.
You will pay for that statement. You've made a very powerful enemy today. I am going to personally dedicate each and ever 4e product to you. In fact, I will include a foreward in the 4e phb explaining how we weren't really going to produce 4e, but due to a well thought out letter by you, Patricio Calderón, begging us to update 3e because you thought it was "the most broken thing ever in the history of humankind and fit to be played only by feces-flinging chimps" we changed our minds and produced it anyway.
You will henceforth be known as the person who created 4e!
Mha ha ha!!!
At least I give my real name.
Sebastian is my real name.
At least I give my real name.
So
Actually, I'm not sure why you brought up that you give your real name as if that some how makes you a more credible source of information.SoSebastian is my real name.
At least I give my real name.
No, it makes me not a more credible source, but at least I don't treat people who doesn't agree with me as if they were inferior or as if they don't deserve respect.
|
|
Actually, I'm not sure why you brought up that you give your real name as if that some how makes you a more credible source of information.SoSebastian is my real name.
At least I give my real name.No, it makes me not a more credible source, but at least I don't treat people who doesn't agree with me as if they were inferior or as if they don't deserve respect.
So what exactly was the point you were trying to make when you said that you give your real name?
|
Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
|
I really need to stop looking at the 4e threads. I'm actually kind of surprised that you and Aubrey are still hanging around.
I ebb and flow in my involvement, and try not to get too much into it. Mostly, I try to interject so that those who have picked up the 4e crusader torch know that they're not entirely alone. As much as ENWorld and WotC are becoming an echo chamber of pro-4e-ism, this place is starting to go the other way. I generally chime in when things go into the conspiracy land or just involve a bunch of ridiculous assumptions and I can't help myself.
Or, if I'm just in a fightin' mood.
|
|
Yeah, this all "blows" quite honestly. After the death of Dragon and Dungeon I have had zero interest in RPGs. Weird? Then 4E was announced and I promptly boxed up all my 24+ years of accumulated RPG stuff and put it in storage. Even weirder? I haven't run a game since mid-June (much to the dismay of the gaming group) and really doubt I'll ever pick up the dice again. Maybe my kids will show an interest in the dusty tomes one day...but I'm through with "new and improved" RPGs. Sorry Paizo, I love your products (okay, I'm a homer for Greyhawk), but WotC has screwed you out this high $$$ spending gamer's interest in RPGs.
Best of luck 4E, I hope you suck the big donkey balls people are predicting.
BTW, all that $$$ I haven't been spending on gaming "crap", the family is having one helluva of fun Xmas this year. So thanks for that, WotC.
So what exactly was the point you were trying to make when you said that you give your real name?Actually, I'm not sure why you brought up that you give your real name as if that some how makes you a more credible source of information.SoSebastian is my real name.
At least I give my real name.No, it makes me not a more credible source, but at least I don't treat people who doesn't agree with me as if they were inferior or as if they don't deserve respect.
My point is simple: If someone is going to irrespect or speak ill about someone or to a community of decent and educated people as we are (that includes you), that person should at least say who he is. It is easy to speak roughly or even unrespect others when you are protect by a login name but those same people would never talk like that if they know that people know their identity.
Sebastina says he is Hasbro CEO, would he talk about "oral sex" in Hasbro Board in front of the rest of the Board members, I doubt it.That is my point, simple and clear.
Sebastina says he is Hasbro CEO, would he talk about "oral sex" in Hasbro Board in front of the rest of the Board members, I doubt it.
You obviously don't know the rest of the Hasbro Board. Milton "the Snake" Weisburg once brought six hookers, a pound of blow, and a doberman to a meeting. That was a hell of a night - I think it might have been when we came up with taking out gnomes and replacing them with tieflings.
Besides, if I used my real name, I'd really be concerned about you hitting on me. Particularly when you spell my name Sebastina. I just don't swing that way.
A bunch of stuff from an industry insider who actually knows something of value.Teiran, you're missing the point of these threads. You can't go bring in the informed opinions of people who actually know something about marketing and have been involved with the successful launch of 3e. No, that doesn't make any sense. You need to just make bald faced assertions based on (a) years of experience playing D&D, (b) your age (which must be at least 30), or (c) your limited understanding of what "kids these days" are really like, including their spending habits.
So stop it already. Just assert that in your very informed opinion as some random dude on the internet who has never worked in marketing that you think 4e will (not) succeed. If you must site a source, please make it as unreliable as possible, such as what your friends think or what other people have posted on various internet message boards.
Actual data and analysis have no place in a 4e debate.
*snorts* Dude, don't make me laugh like that. Hot coffee hurts coming out the nose. Sebastian, thank you for making the last day of work before Christmas vacation a little better.
Yes, I realize that the Paizo 4th edition board has become the leading producer of 4th edition flavored Hateraid.
That is in fact what makes me so mad. Not that D&D is changing and I have no clue if the new editon will be good or not, but that I can't find a rational discussion abouu the topic anywhere around here.
I check these boards from work during dull moments. I can't get to WotC's boards, they're blocked. I want to hear actual news, and have intresting discussion with the people here about the way the game might be changing. That just isn't happening here.
Paizo earned my loyalty and love because they made some very good products and have a great sense of humor. (If you have never called their customer service hotline and received the recorded message, you should. It's awesome.) These boards have begun ruining that for me.
I come here looking for a good new game to play with friends, buy a few items, and then end scanning the message boards to see what's new. I end up being angry for hours because of the crazyness going on here.
I'm not completely happy with 4th edition so far. I haven't seen enough to know yet, and if anyone wants to know them I'll detail my thoughts elsewhere.
What I really want to happen is to have a good, civil discussion on these boards without the sheer bile and drama that so often happens on the internet. I want to like being here, not go away feeling like Paizo's board are crazy talk radio.
|
|
My point is simple: If someone is going to irrespect or speak ill about someone or to a community of decent and educated people as we are (that includes you), that person should at least say who he is. It is easy to speak roughly or even unrespect others when you are protect by a login name but those same people would never talk like that if they know that people know their identity.
Sebastina says he is Hasbro CEO, would he talk about "oral sex" in Hasbro Board in front of the rest of the Board members, I doubt it.
That is my point, simple and clear.
What includes me? Am I part of the "community of decent and educated people" even though I don't have my real name as my screen name or am I part of the someone who "is going to irrespect or speak ill"?
To be honest, it is hard for me to respect "educated" people when neither "irrespect" nor "unrespect" are English words. (At least not how you used them.)
Aside from that, I can understand that you feel that it is easy for people to hide behind a screen name -- yet when Sebastian indicated that "Sebastian" was his real name, your reply was "so". Well, "so" he apparently is not hiding behind his name and therefore what you just posted above does not apply.
And believe me when I say that I firmly believe that given the chance, Sebastian would say in person all that he has posted -- including to the CEO of Hasbro.
Won't help -- I took the Sebastian Shield feat last time.Remind me to choose you as my favored enemy next time I level.Or, if I'm just in a fightin' mood.Good thing you're eating your Honey Nut Cheerios.
Good lord this thread got silly while I was replying. I feel like I'm falling into Faulty Towers sketch.
Good to see we are we all enjoying the day before christmas vactaion at work.