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Belegorn 2
Jake 2
Mordecai 2
Noamuth 1
Omrax 1
Marchello 1
APL = 9/6 = 1.5 + 1 = 2.5
I was planning on running this at subtier 1-2, but it has a 3-4 version. You are borderline. I think 3-4 is a more interesting version of this scenario, but 1-2 isn't bad either. Playing 3-4 could very well be deadly with half the table at level 1, but ultimately the decision is yours.
Let me know if you want to do 1-2 or play up to 3-4.

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I know it would be exciting to have the rewards from playing up, but I have heard that the level 3-4 encounters can be a little challenging for characters in that Tier. I am concerned that there will be character deaths if we do it, especially with three level 1 characters. (Unless someone has a level 3-4 character to switch out for?)
GM, do you think we will be able to handle the encounters reasonably with this group? I assume you can tell by reading it if we will be totally hosed.

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I'm looking through it now. There are some scenarios where playing up is still a breeze for a lower level party. I don't think this is one of them. If you play up be prepared to work your asses off for a victory. The static damage I'll be throwing around with certain monsters (before die rolls are factored in) will be enough to make things dangerous- potential PC death dangerous.

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I am with the dwarf on 1-2. If we had one pc of 3rd
Or 4th level I'd be fine with playing up but I think it would go poorly for us as we stand.

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With a 12 AC, I don't think the dice would be the only thing rolling! :)
Actually, now that I look at it, Marchello, your AC should be 14, not 12. You need to factor in your Dex.
Doh - thanks, good catch, and just in time!

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Is it too meta to talk tactics here? Didn't we in theory train in those abandoned towers and such? I can see if we don't all know each and every one of the others, but some stuff we'd know, right?
Might I rough out a scorecard?

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this kind of scorecard
Noamuth Bar 1 13hp AC 16 MELEE/ranged
Marchello Inq 1 9hp AC 14 MELEE
Belegorn Cl/Rng 1/1 20hp AC 17 MELEE/RANGED
Jake Ftr 2 22hp AC 18 MELEE
Omrax Pal 1 12hp AC 20 MELEE
Mordecai Ora 2 15hp AC 18 melee/ranged/MAGIC
:)

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Here's an example of a tier 3-4 full attack from one of the earlier encounters (not a boss fight):
Bite 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (4) + 6 = 10 Damage 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (8) + 1 = 9
Bite 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (4) + 6 = 10 Damage 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (4) + 1 = 5
Gore 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (6) + 6 = 12 Damage 1d8 + 1 ⇒ (5) + 1 = 6
Claw 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (20) + 6 = 26 Damage 1d6 + 1 ⇒ (3) + 1 = 4
Claw 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (13) + 6 = 19 Damage 1d6 + 1 ⇒ (5) + 1 = 6
Terrible to hit rolls there, but you get the idea. Looking at that made me nervous.

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For clarity, I'm numbering the polearm-wielding statue's square as a1. The animate statue is in b3, Mordecai is in c4(but moved to d4).
I think Marchello meant to move to c2, 4 diagonal steps, 30 feet total (5, 10, 5, 10).
Belegarn meant to move to d2, three diagonal steps, 20 feet (5, 10, 5)
Mordecai moved to d4, 5-ft step, from c4.
Omrax still has to declare. I expect he might charge straight in, to c2.
Jake's declared for a space Belegarn is in. Perhaps consider instead three diagonal moves, (20' total) NW, NW, SW? To b2?
If all that is correct, and the statue hasn't morphed into a Balrog or something, Noa will move to c4 and attack. I'll wait to see what it does before declaring, though.

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I thought I'd succeeded, but I'm not sure. Her intent was to make it easier for you all to hit. I can see why it might not drop the longsword, if it's all part of the statue. I can also see why the GM might rule the grappled statue still does longsword-scale damage even while punching with small stone fists.
Yay! For numbers on the map and the Withdraw rule! :)
I hope that red box on it means it's busted up.

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Being grappled does not prevent you from attacking or even making a full attack with a weapon. It gives you a -2 to hit and a -2 AC through a dex penalty. It DOES prevent you from attacking with a two handed weapon, but long swords only require one hand. I only described it as an attack with the fists for a better scene.
Grappled: A grappled creature is restrained by a creature, trap, or effect. Grappled creatures cannot move and take a –4 penalty to Dexterity. A grappled creature takes a –2 penalty on all attack rolls and combat maneuver checks, except those made to grapple or escape a grapple. In addition, grappled creatures can take no action that requires two hands to perform. A grappled character who attempts to cast a spell or use a spell-like ability must make a concentration check (DC 10 + grappler's CMB + spell level), or lose the spell. Grappled creatures cannot make attacks of opportunity.
I had thought that if she had maintained the grapple and transitioned into a pin on the second round it would be unable to attack, but it looks like even then it would be able to continue attacking. Pin more or less shuts down casters, but not so much with melee fighters.
The red outlines indicate grappling, but the statue is also very busted up at this point.

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Huh. I'm looking more into grappling since it hasn't come up too much in games I've run.
Unless otherwise noted, performing a combat maneuver provokes an attack of opportunity from the target of the maneuver. If you are hit by the target, you take the damage normally and apply that amount as a penalty to the attack roll to perform the maneuver.
I'd never noticed that part before. So with a -6 on Noamuth's grapple check she only had 13 and never would have successfully initiated the grapple. Ah well. Learning as we go.
But- I think I read the pinned condition wrong this morning. I believe it is meant to restrict you to only the actions described in the condition. That prevents weapon attacks. It doesn't make any sense that it would be impossible to make somatic gestures or use material components but you could still use a longsword while pinned.

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If you look under the Pinned condition, you can’t do much of anything. You may attempt to break the pin, or you can attempt to cast a spell with a concentration check as long as it does not have a Somatic component, which most spells do. You may not attack, move, or really do anything else.

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If your action in combat hinges on what others do in combat, then use this thread to discuss it. A real table would discuss strategy when it is important, there is no reason why a virtual table should not do the same.

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Grapple changed a fair bit from 3.5 to PF. I'm pretty sure that was one of the changes.
EDIT:
3.5
You can make an attack with an unarmed strike, natural weapon, or light weapon against another character you are grappling. You take a -4 penalty on such attacks.
PF
A grappled creature takes a –2 penalty on all attack rolls and combat maneuver checks, except those made to grapple or escape a grapple. In addition, grappled creatures can take no action that requires two hands to perform.

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I'm slow sometimes, but I am reliable. You don't have to worry about that. I ran the other pbp for a couple of years and have been playing in a couple here for five years straight.
I am having an unfun period of work though right now. Working Saturdays and unpredictable hours any particular day. More than a few days this week have been work, home in time to put the baby to bed, dinner and then bed. Last night I fell asleep with a laptop on my chest trying to catch up :P