i was able to on my phone,
the gist is that RPGs only make up around 15 million of the 700 million or so that makes up the hobby game market,
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Quoting the article:
"ICv2 has released the results of a study on the size of the hobby game market, including the finding that that the market in the U.S. and Canada totaled around $700 million at retail in 2013, as reported in the recently released Internal Correspondence #85. ICv2 also broke down the market by category, and found that the collectible games category was by far the largest, at $450 million; miniatures were second, at $125 million; board games were third at $75 million; card and dice games fourth at $35 million; and RPGs last at $15 million."
Thanks for the link. WotC's approach to releasing 5E starts to feel like much more of a strategy.
I wonder what the margins are like in each category. You'd have to think collectible a would win that too, surely?
I was surprised at the rankings of board games and minis. I'd have switched them, if asked to guess.
Quoting the article:
"ICv2 has released the results of a study on the size of the hobby game market, including the finding that that the market in the U.S. and Canada totaled around $700 million at retail in 2013, as reported in the recently released Internal Correspondence #85. ICv2 also broke down the market by category, and found that the collectible games category was by far the largest, at $450 million; miniatures were second, at $125 million; board games were third at $75 million; card and dice games fourth at $35 million; and RPGs last at $15 million."
What are some examples of collectible games?
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What are some examples of collectible games?Quoting the article:
"ICv2 has released the results of a study on the size of the hobby game market, including the finding that that the market in the U.S. and Canada totaled around $700 million at retail in 2013, as reported in the recently released Internal Correspondence #85. ICv2 also broke down the market by category, and found that the collectible games category was by far the largest, at $450 million; miniatures were second, at $125 million; board games were third at $75 million; card and dice games fourth at $35 million; and RPGs last at $15 million."
Here's the top 10 for collectible games.
Top 10 Hobby Channel Collectible Games – Spring 2014
Title
Publisher
1
Magic: The Gathering
Wizards of the Coast
2
Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG
Konami Digital Entertainment
3
Pokemon TCG
Pokemon USA
4
Marvel and DC HeroClix
WizKids/NECA
5
My Little Pony
Enterplay
6
Marvel Dice Masters
WizKids
7
Cardfight!! Vanguard
Bushiroad
8
Kaijudo
Wizards of the Coast
9
Legend of the Five Rings
Alderac Entertainment Group
10
Yu-Gi-Oh! HeroClix
WizKids
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Nice to see Pathfinder at the top of the RPGs though, even if it is the smallest share of the market. Represented by chapter 1 of Mummy's Mask, even.
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WOW! That is REALLY REALLY small! Thats tough for one business to sustain itself with, much less all the little RPG businesses. Guess everyone should be nicer to the paizo staff noe :)
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yeah i imagine Iron Gods will top Mummy's Mask, if anything it shows the RPG market has potential for much more growth, or at least i hope so:)
Though that is sale only the hobby stores...which is kinda of limited and probably in a decade or so be obsolete.
My guess is that can at least double those numbers if you include internets sales and such.
I wouldn't be surprised if it significantly increases the margins, though I'm not sure I'd go so far as doubling. I know I do all my gaming shopping via Paizo.com or DriveThruRPG, as does the majority of my gaming group. I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true for several other people.
does it include Amazon?
does it include Amazon?
No, iirc, only LGSs.
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Honestly if Amazon isnt included you might as well add an extra third at least onto those totals, with subscriptions on top of that, my guess is it might even be higher then double for RPGs
I think the actual numbers are meaningless (and they are just estimates) - it's the relative numbers I find surprising.
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I think the actual numbers are meaningless (and they are just estimates) - it's the relative numbers I find surprising.
Again I think the medium of the survey (IE just counting Gaming Stores sales numbers) are also a bot skewed as I think people are more likely to buy collectible games via a store than the internet as opposed to RPG books which I pretty much buy all of them online.
Not saying that CCG and the like does not out sell RPGs I just don't think it is by as high as a margin as this would lead you to believe.
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M:tG is estimated to be around 6 million active players around the world. I would guess that that easily doubles or triples if you count inactive players.
In it's entire 40 year history, D&D has a total of 10 million, not all of which are active.
Factory sealed boxes of certain editions of M:tG can go for over $10,000.
The highest priced D&D book on ebay right now is $450.
RPG's are a really, really, really small market.
I think the actual numbers are meaningless (and they are just estimates) - it's the relative numbers I find surprising.Again I think the medium of the survey (IE just counting Gaming Stores sales numbers) are also a bot skewed as I think people are more likely to buy collectible games via a store than the internet as opposed to RPG books which I pretty much buy all of them online.
Not saying that CCG and the like does not out sell RPGs I just don't think it is by as high as a margin as this would lead you to believe.
I agree. In my experience, enthusiast TCG players to purchase TCG boosters in store where they can play/trade/sell on the spot. RPG players also buy in hobby stores, but they are much more inclined to simply order from Amazon (or Paizo) and receive shipments when they come - their needs once the book arrives are less immediate.
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Actually, the article clearly states:
"We define the "hobby games market" as the market for those games regardless of whether they’re sold in the hobby channel or other channels."
So it's not just LGS.
And I fully believe the credibility of the article. The CCGs have addiction mechanisms and pro competitive play (which of course pales to e-sports, but you can still live off playing M:tG or Yu-Gi-Oh.
Board games are going mainstream, even more so in Europe. You can grab one and play with your family, your friends who come over, your co-workers, anybody can play Carcassone or Catan in an instant.
RPGs? Backwater hobby with no visual appeal, no addiction mechanisms, high entry barrier (300+ pg rulebooks full of tables?), no pro competitive play, social stigma of being an activity for 40yr old white male neckbeards. Sure, many of those things change, but in general? It's a very, very, VERY small industry.
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Incredibly expensive? Seems a bit of an exageration. The internet has made BG/TTRPGs much more affordable and accessible. Some cases you can play for free. You also only need the core product to play so expansions and supplents are just optional.
My gamer buddies complain all the time how much more expesive Magic is than your typical BG or TTRPG. If cost is a huge berrier why does Magic-pokemon-yu-gi-oh make cash hand over fist?
I think the actual numbers are meaningless (and they are just estimates) - it's the relative numbers I find surprising.Again I think the medium of the survey (IE just counting Gaming Stores sales numbers) are also a bot skewed as I think people are more likely to buy collectible games via a store than the internet as opposed to RPG books which I pretty much buy all of them online.
Not saying that CCG and the like does not out sell RPGs I just don't think it is by as high as a margin as this would lead you to believe.
I didn't read it like that. I know the ICv2 survey is only the hobby stores, but I think this estimate of the market size is broader than that.
I agree. In my experience, enthusiast TCG players to purchase TCG boosters in store where they can play/trade/sell on the spot. RPG players also buy in hobby stores, but they are much more inclined to simply order from Amazon (or Paizo) and receive shipments when they come - their needs once the book arrives are less immediate.I think the actual numbers are meaningless (and they are just estimates) - it's the relative numbers I find surprising.Again I think the medium of the survey (IE just counting Gaming Stores sales numbers) are also a bot skewed as I think people are more likely to buy collectible games via a store than the internet as opposed to RPG books which I pretty much buy all of them online.
Not saying that CCG and the like does not out sell RPGs I just don't think it is by as high as a margin as this would lead you to believe.
how would you have experience of those who shop online though?
Personally, I don't think anecdotal evidence trumps a properly conducted survey (and although I haven't looked at this one in detail I have drilled down into previous ICv2 studies and their methodology and data seem pretty decent).
The largest company I know of that releases sales data is Evil Hat. Right now with Fate Core they're #4 on the list of best selling products according to ICv2.
Last year Evil Hat had gross revenue around $1.4 million.
RPGs is a tiny industry.
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My gamer buddies complain all the time how much more expesive Magic is than your typical BG or TTRPG. If cost is a huge berrier why does Magic-pokemon-yu-gi-oh make cash hand over fist?
Because they manipulate customers using the same mechanisms that casinos, bookies, and B.F. Skinner developed to make people gamble away their money.
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Did anyone actually think that it was big?
No, but the idea that the entire tabletop RPG industry can support (and this is being charitable) fewer than 100 full-time workers is sort of jarring.
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My gamer buddies complain all the time how much more expesive Magic is than your typical BG or TTRPG. If cost is a huge berrier why does Magic-pokemon-yu-gi-oh make cash hand over fist?Because they manipulate customers using the same mechanisms that casinos, bookies, and B.F. Skinner developed to make people gamble away their money.
Casinos and bookies don't feature a robust secondary market that allows those "gambling away their money" to recoup losses and trade risk and reward among other players.
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Did anyone actually think that it was big?No, but the idea that the entire tabletop RPG industry can support (and this is being charitable) fewer than 100 full-time workers is sort of jarring.
Paizo has an online store and branches out into dozens of things other than RPG. I'm pretty sure that if they were doing only Pathfinder they wouldn't be able to sustain much apart from a skeleton crew.
Steve Jackson lives off Munchkin. Catalyst lives off Battletech. WotC lives off M:tG. Fantasy Flight lives off board games and living card games.
Many companies, such as Pelgrane Press or Chaosium or Onyx Path are 1d6 permanent employees and the rest is freelancers. And these are relatively big names in the industry with big products, btw.
Yeah, I can totally see there 100 people being employed only out of money that comes from RPGs.
15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
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15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
That drops it to 10 million. Are we suggesting people are getting paid $100 000 us per year in the roleplay market (100 people for combined salary of 10 mill).
However, the exact figure is irrelevant. I think Scott was trying to point out that the rpg industry is tiny in terms of people who work in it as developers. I just got all pedantic is all. Naughty of me really. Sorry all.
Cheers
15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
That drops it to 10 million. Are we suggesting people are getting paid $100 000 us per year in the roleplay market (100 people for combined salary of 10 mill).
However, the exact figure is irrelevant. I think Scott was trying to point out that the rpg industry is tiny in terms of people who work in it as developers. I just got all pedantic is all. Naughty of me really. Sorry all.
Cheers
You appear to be forgetting production costs?
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15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
That drops it to 10 million. Are we suggesting people are getting paid $100 000 us per year in the roleplay market (100 people for combined salary of 10 mill).
However, the exact figure is irrelevant. I think Scott was trying to point out that the rpg industry is tiny in terms of people who work in it as developers. I just got all pedantic is all. Naughty of me really. Sorry all.
Cheers
This includes a correction from earlier (I was including Evil Genius sales in previous estimates), Evil Hat, had this for a break down for 2013:
Income: $744k
Expenses: $680k
Profit: $64k
Biggest expenses
Shipping: $169k
Inventory/Manufacture: $242k
Just getting a product to market takes up more than half of the revenue from selling it.
Evil Hat has been on the top 5 of ICv2 a fair amount of the time since it released Dresden Files RPG back in 2011. But it only represents 5% of the market.
Paizo undoubtedly holds a larger share, not just because they usually hold the top spot, but they have more products which have substantial sales in their own right. Even still, I doubt there are more than a couple employees at Paizo who make more than $50,000 a year.
Atlas Games has had moderate success, but I think they're at 4 employees (including one of the owners). They've managed to sustain themselves for 20 years, but they're not getting wealthy off this. It's all used cars and public schools.
Actually they based this off of the their ICv2 reports which are just based on Hobby Stores sales (at least that is what everyone says) and 'frank' and 'open' interviews with industry leaders estimates. As a matter of fact they said this whole report would not be possible with it...so maybe they took the interview to heart? I don't it seems like a weak sorta of thing to base it on....
I am not saying the RPG market is very small...I just think it is a lot larger than this article and survey states.
What is HotDQ?
Actually they based this off of the their ICv2 reports which are just based on Hobby Stores sales (at least that is what everyone says) and 'frank' and 'open' interviews with industry leaders estimates. As a matter of fact they said this whole report would not be possible with it...so maybe they took the interview to heart? I don't it seems like a weak sorta of thing to base it on....
I am not saying the RPG market is very small...I just think it is a lot larger than this article and survey states.
The thing is, these estimates were made by a group with longstanding access to a number of suppliers, a history of collecting decent data and analysing it well. From previous ICv2 surveys, I'm sure they've thought about the issue of different markets having different purchasing habits and adjusted their estimate of each accordingly. Let's face it, they're in a far better position to make those adjustments than any of us.
The numbers surprise me and, although they're estimates not facts, they are head and shoulders above any speculation based on personal experience. I think this is the best estimate we have and would love to see any alternate research that's around. Although I never thought the RPG market was big, I found these results very surprising and when decent research surprises me I think the best response is to adjust my beliefs rather than dismiss the research.
The actual number isnt really important - it's the relative size of the RPG market vs the other segments. To me that really puts it in perspective and provides some real insight into WotC's apparent strategy for 5E (where they seem to be focussing on the other products tied to D&D apart from directsales of the TTRPG).
15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
Retailers take a huge chunk (in excess of 20%). Logistics is a significant chunk. Production is an enormous chunk. Non-salary overhead is another chunk (utilities, equipment, non-salary employee benefits, office rent, etc.). By the time the industry gets around to actually cutting checks for employees, that $15 million is probably down to a few million. I wasn't forecasting huge salaries for RPG industry employees; around $50,000 per annum, plus benefits.
I'd be astonished if, based on these figures, there were even 100 people in the world who derive the whole of (or close to the whole of) their income from working on tabletop RPGs.
I agree. I suspect there's a lot of cross-subsidy as well, given that most of the full-timers work for the larger companies who have a more diversified product offering.
Actually they based this off of the their ICv2 reports which are just based on Hobby Stores sales (at least that is what everyone says) and 'frank' and 'open' interviews with industry leaders estimates. As a matter of fact they said this whole report would not be possible with it...so maybe they took the interview to heart? I don't it seems like a weak sorta of thing to base it on....
I am not saying the RPG market is very small...I just think it is a lot larger than this article and survey states.
The thing is, these estimates were made by a group with longstanding access to a number of suppliers, a history of collecting decent data and analysing it well. From previous ICv2 surveys, I'm sure they've thought about the issue of different markets having different purchasing habits and adjusted their estimate of each accordingly. Let's face it, they're in a far better position to make those adjustments than any of us.
The numbers surprise me and, although they're estimates not facts, they are head and shoulders above any speculation based on personal experience. I think this is the best estimate we have and would love to see any alternate research that's around. Although I never thought the RPG market was big, I found these results very surprising and when decent research surprises me I think the best response is to adjust my beliefs rather than dismiss the research.
The actual number isnt really important - it's the relative size of the RPG market vs the other segments. To me that really puts it in perspective and provides some real insight into WotC's apparent strategy for 5E (where they seem to be focussing on the other products tied to D&D apart from directsales of the TTRPG).
While that is true...the articles heavily relies on those industrial leaders to be frank and open...to the point they even said they could not write this article without that. So the basis is to me is somewhat suspect...maybe I am just not as trusting as you are...;)
Also in the end...I really don't care how big the market is...
15 million would employ far more than 100 people when you consider most folks in the industry aren't making big money. We're not talking triple figure incomes here I'm guessing.
Cheers
As far as I understand it 15 million is sales at shops and other channels. Subtract what shop gets, subtract printing and shipment costs, taxes, and what is left is probably much lower number.
How much shops get? 10-15%? Transport? 10-15%? Taxes?
Retailers take a huge chunk (in excess of 20%). Logistics is a significant chunk. Production is an enormous chunk. Non-salary overhead is another chunk (utilities, equipment, non-salary employee benefits, office rent, etc.). By the time the industry gets around to actually cutting checks for employees, that $15 million is probably down to a few million. I wasn't forecasting huge salaries for RPG industry employees; around $50,000 per annum, plus benefits.
I'd be astonished if, based on these figures, there were even 100 people in the world who derive the whole of (or close to the whole of) their income from working on tabletop RPGs.
Actually remember a lot of writers for RPG market are freelance writers most of who have a day job.
While that is true...the articles heavily relies on those industrial leaders to be frank and open...to the point they even said they could not write this article without that. So the basis is to me is somewhat suspect...maybe I am just not as trusting as you are...Actually they based this off of the their ICv2 reports which are just based on Hobby Stores sales (at least that is what everyone says) and 'frank' and 'open' interviews with industry leaders estimates. As a matter of fact they said this whole report would not be possible with it...so maybe they took the interview to heart? I don't it seems like a weak sorta of thing to base it on....
I am not saying the RPG market is very small...I just think it is a lot larger than this article and survey states.
The thing is, these estimates were made by a group with longstanding access to a number of suppliers, a history of collecting decent data and analysing it well. From previous ICv2 surveys, I'm sure they've thought about the issue of different markets having different purchasing habits and adjusted their estimate of each accordingly. Let's face it, they're in a far better position to make those adjustments than any of us.
The numbers surprise me and, although they're estimates not facts, they are head and shoulders above any speculation based on personal experience. I think this is the best estimate we have and would love to see any alternate research that's around. Although I never thought the RPG market was big, I found these results very surprising and when decent research surprises me I think the best response is to adjust my beliefs rather than dismiss the research.
The actual number isnt really important - it's the relative size of the RPG market vs the other segments. To me that really puts it in perspective and provides some real insight into WotC's apparent strategy for 5E (where they seem to be focussing on the other products tied to D&D apart from directsales of the TTRPG).
It's not about being trusting - I understand they're working with messy information and extrapolating quite far. However, correcting for that isnt actually that difficult once you've got enough data. Although I think this is the best estimate going around (certainly better than anything a customer can come up with - no matter how widely we consult) I dont consider it particularly good. The only thing I'd be willing to say about the 15m figure is that I'm confident it's wrong.
What I find interesting is that boardgames and miniature sales are so dominant over RPGs - it's difficult to see how a company with the resources, experience and contacts of ICv2 could get that kind of feature very wrong.
Actually I am surprised that boardgames aren't a bigger part of the cake and even more dominant over RPGs.
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The economics of it are complicated by the fact that spin-offs can provide a significant income, meaning that even if RPG rulebooks & adventures run at a loss, they can often make the money back.
D&D is a valuable intellectual property providing income from miniatures, movies, novels, 1980s cartoons, comics and videogames.
Similarly, superhero comics make very little money, but so long as superhero movies make billions, it hardly matters.
What I find interesting is the numbers come from FLGS. A better snapshot would be pooling the financials from the companies themselves. How much does Paizo sell directly to customers of their products and other companies' products as a distributor? Subscriptions? PDF only sales? How much Paizo product is sold through Amazon, DrivethruRPG, etc?
I don't know about you guys, but I haven't bought a single RPG item from my local shop in over 10 years. Almost everything is purchased online now (for me). Sure, PFS brings numbers into the shop and generates sales, but there is a massive amount of people who buy on their own for home games. How does that relate to MtG? Inversely, do most of TCG sales come from FLGS, but not online? Can't buy PDF's of cards can you? So many questions!
This article is an interesting read, but I dont think it gives us a very good picture of anything. (No fault of the OP of course!)
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People don't appreciate that board games/tabletop games/TCG's of all types are incredibly expensive, reducing their possible market by quite a bit. What was the ACG with standard shipping, 48$? And you wouldn't be able to play Pathfinder with just the ACG.
This is an important point. It's difficult to be a "casual" RPG player and pay full price(or LGS equivalent) meaningfully for the hobby. Whereas CCG players can pick up a couple of booster packs, some card sleeves, buy some decent singles, etc for half of what a RPG book alone costs.