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NOTE This is not a political question or debate.
If the proposed plans for tariffs next year go into effect they will have a big impact on gaming industry as a whole which heavily relies on china for printing book, making miniatures, and more.
The "proposed" tariffs are
10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board.
between 60% and 100% for products imported from China.
between 25% and 100% on goods imported from Mexico.
Besides the possible increase in the cost of gaming, the rising cost of other imported goods could reduce people sending money for games.
I'm curious if Paizo is considering the possibility this might happen, and what this could mean for Pathfinder and Starfinder, and if there is anything that can be done to reduce the impact this might have if these tariff policies are enacted.
The rising cost of games in the last year or so has already made me make a switch to PDF only whenever possible. Worst case scenario could Pathfinder or Starfinder survive just on PDF sales? Even if the cost of printing books in the US was not a factor I don't know if there is the capacity in the US to handle a sudden shift from overseas printing.
Hope this doesn't sound all doom and gloom, it's meant more of a trying to be prepared, and make the best of things.
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I welcome our North American friends to the plight overseas customers have suffered from for years now.
We adapted and we're still here.
Sure we Americans might have a good supply of Paizo products, but if anyone on the internet starts a rumor that the toilet paper supply might be at risk, within hours all the stores will be sold out. That's why I always have a PDF of toilet paper on file ready to print out when needed.
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I was also wondering about the impact. Are conversations being held with American book printers? Numbers being runned on domestic publication and shopping vs. foreign? Or do you just shift to a lessor tariffed foreign manufacturer than China?
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Likely nobody's doing anything yet. Tariffs have to be legislated, meaning very carefully worded and designed. That takes time. During which, some people will point out it's not as easy as "let's just do this"; there will be retaliatory economic action coming right back. Basically... this is likely to be a bunch of sabre-rattling and negotiation. Simply put, protectionism is understandable, but doing what's been promised as-is will destroy US citizens' buying power and the jobs it's supposed to encourage will take decades to build, and by definition they'll be poor-paying jobs (else they wouldn't be off-shore). People who understand economics will point that out. From there... we'll see if it's another Mexican wall situation where a fraction of what was promised happens, or if... well... bad things happen.
But likely right now... it's wait and see.
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Tariffs have to be legislated...
For the most part, that is not actually the case in the U.S. All the president needs to do to unilaterally impose tariffs is decide that the imports in question are “fostering U.S. dependence on unreliable or unsafe imports.”
There's also the fact that the president-elect doesn't have a record of caring one whit about formalities like legality, but that's dancing pretty close to politics, so I'll leave it at that.
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I was also wondering about the impact. Are conversations being held with American book printers? Numbers being runned on domestic publication and shopping vs. foreign? Or do you just shift to a lessor tariffed foreign manufacturer than China?
At least, this will help Paizo achieve their sustainability goal by reducing their cardon print by printing locally.
If Paizo were the only that increased their prices by printing locally, the sticker shock would scare off more customers than if it's an industry wide thing.
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I was also wondering about the impact. Are conversations being held with American book printers? Numbers being runned on domestic publication and shopping vs. foreign? Or do you just shift to a lessor tariffed foreign manufacturer than China?
From what I heard, there's currently no printer in America that can actually make so big print runs as Paizo need.
HEck, a couple years back, the Avatar the Last Airbender TTRPG caused a nation-wide cardboard shortage and needed to use multiple printers cause there was not one printer that could fulfill their needs at once.Here a Reddit post about the USA cardboard and printer status in relation to that event.
So yeah. Sadly, the current American infrastructure is NOT ENOUGH to support big book runs, EVEN TTRPG ones that are a niche industry.
And this would take YEARS to correct. American printers have been scaling down their business (or becoming exclusive WotC/Amazon printers) for decades. That can't be brought back overnight.
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I was also wondering about the impact. Are conversations being held with American book printers? Numbers being runned on domestic publication and shopping vs. foreign? Or do you just shift to a lessor tariffed foreign manufacturer than China?From what I heard, there's currently no printer in America that can actually make so big print runs as Paizo need.
HEck, a couple years back, the Avatar the Last Airbender TTRPG caused a nation-wide cardboard shortage and needed to use multiple printers cause there was not one printer that could fulfill their needs at once.
Here a Reddit post about the USA cardboard and printer status in relation to that event.
So yeah. Sadly, the current American infrastructure is NOT ENOUGH to support big book runs, EVEN TTRPG ones that are a niche industry.
And this would take YEARS to correct. American printers have been scaling down their business (or becoming exclusive WotC/Amazon printers) for decades. That can't be brought back overnight.
So there aren't currently enough printers in USA, because it was cheaper to outsource to China and ship them back to the USA.
Usually is there between 6 months to a couple years to set up factory depending on the complexity, so whatever trailblazer sets up shop or expands capacity can make mad profits, assuming the tariffs are, in fact, implemented.
Additionally, a shortage due to a demand hike is just that. There was shortage of pink paint due to the Barbie Movie, that doesn't mean that the paint industry is weak or couldn't adapt to sustained increase in demand. At best it means it operates in tight, "just in time", order scheduled.
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I doubt "6 month" would be enough to scale up to what would be needed, and even that might not be enough to come before the tarriffs enter in effects. Considering how slight the margins are in TTRPG, that's a big pain. Good thing: The industry is small, and not a lot of publishers *need* that much books being printed... But Paizo NEED it. Their whole thing is a very high rate of releases. Even just 2 months without affordable printers WOULD mean they would have to skyrocket the prices of books... Or just give up (I doubt they will do the latter... but oof people won't be happy with the former, considering the reception that the last price hike STILL receive to this day.)
Oh, and it would still mean that Paizo would need to up the prices of the books, cause the US printers that do this WILL ask premium prices, both because the employees cost more, but also because the publishers NEED that, and will probably be forced to accept pretty much any price that is even just slightly belowe china + tariffs.
And that's not counting the price of paper. The US import a LOT of wood (used to make pulp), pulp, and paper from Canada. The price of those would go up, OR they would need to turn to... pricier local wood/pulp/paper.
... No matter what, if they are implemented, this WILL affect Paizo. Prices WILL go up. Again.
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I doubt "6 month" would be enough to scale up to what would be needed, and even that might not be enough to come before the tarriffs enter in effects. Considering how slight the margins are in TTRPG, that's a big pain. Good thing: The industry is small, and not a lot of publishers *need* that much books being printed... But Paizo NEED it. Their whole thing is a very high rate of releases. Even just 2 months without affordable printers WOULD mean they would have to skyrocket the prices of books... Or just give up (I doubt they will do the latter... but oof people won't be happy with the former, considering the reception that the last price hike STILL receive to this day.)
Oh, and it would still mean that Paizo would need to up the prices of the books, cause the US printers that do this WILL ask premium prices, both because the employees cost more, but also because the publishers NEED that, and will probably be forced to accept pretty much any price that is even just slightly belowe china + tariffs.
And that's not counting the price of paper. The US import a LOT of wood (used to make pulp), pulp, and paper from Canada. The price of those would go up, OR they would need to turn to... pricier local wood/pulp/paper.
... No matter what, if they are implemented, this WILL affect Paizo. Prices WILL go up. Again.
Yeah, no. Six months isn't even the beginning of the time period to even gain any impetus on developing an industry or expanding a capacity. Demand must be sustained and profitable for any company to invest in expanding or updating methods. No point in creating expanded capacity if the demand falls out from under you in 2-4 years. You won't even recoup on the initial costs let alone all the benefits portfolios. I can cite example after example but I really don't have the time or want to. Suffice to say tariffs do not ever generate domestic production. They are tools for:
1. Tax generation (Their original purpose along with excise taxes (Taxes on exports before the U.S. had income tax)
2. Protecting a domestic industry from foreign predatory undercutting.
3. Protecting national interests to maintain some capacity of domestic production for critical goods along with subsidies.
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Usually is there between 6 months to a couple years to set up factory depending on the complexity, so whatever trailblazer sets up shop or expands capacity can make mad profits, assuming the tariffs are, in fact, implemented.
Additionally, a shortage due to a demand hike is just that. There was shortage of pink paint due to the Barbie Movie, that doesn't mean that the paint industry is weak or couldn't adapt to sustained increase in demand. At best it means it operates in tight, "just in time", order scheduled.
/unhinged economic rant
1: 6 months seems really short. Industrial printing requires heavy machinery, which is also not manufactured in the US so either that's a second industry that has to be spun up here first, or an additional 10%-100% increase in the overhead cost to start up the factory.
2: "just in time" operation is the worst thing to happen to industry in well the history of industry. It is the reason that there are no American manufacturers, it is the reason why a couple of relatively minor shipping bottlenecks during covid lead to months long delays in shipping that have still not been corrected for. The shipping is a good example. As a result of an industry wide just in time mentality, we were (and still are) running at 100% of shipping capacity 100% of the time. Just-in-time says that because safety margins (like holding back 10-20% of your capacity, or stocking one or two production runs worth of raw materials) do not directly generate profits they are a waste and need to be eliminated. What that means in the short term if everything runs perfectly is higher profits. What it means long term is the entire manufacturing and distribution system because INCREDIBLY fragile. Even minor problems cause the entire system to shatter, and as can be seen in the shipping industry, because you were already running at 100% capacity it is physically impossible to recover without going through the decades long process of building more capacity. The 2020 shipping bottle neck is STILL causing problems, right now there are paizo products that were supposed to ship two months ago that are MIA in the shipping system. On top of that, if you favor some of the more modern analyses of inflation being more closely tied to supply line capacity than monetary supply, you can draw a line directly from the covid shipping crisis that is still unresolved to the inflation spike during that same time period.
/end rant
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WotC bought up a lot of the American printers???
Where can I learn more about that?
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Paizo, a game-related company, is facing potential tariffs next year that could impact its business and product prices. The tariffs could increase production costs, particularly for imported materials and goods, and increase shipping costs. To offset these costs, Paizo might raise product prices, potentially impacting consumer purchasing decisions. The tariffs could also cause supply chain disruptions, leading to delays in product releases or limited stock availability. Paizo may explore local manufacturing alternatives, but this could increase production costs or limit product variety. Strategic responses include adjusting product lines, using crowdfunding, and considering restructuring the business model. In the long run, Paizo may consider domestic production options or expanding its customer base in less affected countries. However, the long-term effects will depend on the company's ability to adapt and manage these challenges.
Can we get a Flag category for AI posts such as this one ?
