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Lets start comparing damage output.
For a level 20 damage 8d10 for a 3 action activity. It deals damage in a 30 ft burst or emanation. Pretty cool, right? 44 dmg per target on avg.
But the damage of a cantrip at that level is around 10d4+7 to two different targets. That's 31.5 damage to two different targets on avg if they fail their saves. The DC for their spells is 45. (wizard)
For a kineticist though, the DC for their 8d10 activity is 43.
Reflex saves for a 20th level are +34 for a gold dragon. Reflex is its weakest save by far meaning that I have to roll a 11 on the dice for it to save against a wizard spell, meaning a 50% chance of making said save or a 9 against the 30 ft burst.
So the amount of targets are higher, the saves are easier to overcome, but I target my own people as well.
Meanwhile a level 20 fireball would deal around twice as much damage, but limited.
Do you all think that the lower saves, but stronger AOE damage is balanced with a class that essentially gets a ton of reusables? I'm looking forward to trying it out more in depth...

Renkosuke |
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Considering you're also at a penalty compared to most martials when using Elemental Blasts, both are feelsbad options. They put a lot of emphasis on the all day utility aspect of the class, and also seem to be overcompensating for the at-will actions by making them feel pretty weak. A lot of impulses seem to go "obsolete" as you move up the chain too, which feels like bad design to me. Power Attack on a fighter is useful throughout the fighter's lifetime, but I don't see anyone using Flame Eruption after getting Blazing Wave and/or Solar Detonation (not that they're particularly exciting either but just an example).
More to the point, I saw someone else comparing high level impulses to focus spells, since by level 18 you can have 3 reusable focus spells per combat, which is usually enough to say that you have all day casting of them. In that situation, impulses fall behind pretty dramatically, though I don't have any specific numbers to really drive the point home.

gesalt |

The thing about at-will vs encounter (focus) vs daily (spells) is this idea that with each step up you grow in power at the cost of usability.
The problem with this paradigm in pf2e is that encounters don't last long enough to justify the miserable efficiency of what the kineticists's at-will powers can accomplish.
Not that there aren't some really good kineticist abilities, but they're certainly in the minority and either resemble spells (at will wall of earth, flight, etc) or are likely entirely by accident (slippery sleet immobilizing nearly every creature that doesn't have a listed Acrobatics score).

Dubious Scholar |
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I think there's a real question of whether this class should get legendary class DC to handle the impulses. Something to consider.
But generally speaking, overflow is brutal on action costs for what you get.
As to damage - impulses should deal damage somewhere between cantrips and focus spells. Cantrips are already a bit weak (I mean, usually) because they're balanced by spell slots for going nova (or are picked up as backup options on martials, etc). Focus spells are fairly reusable, and classes can pick up improved refocusing to be able to unload two and eventually three focus spells every fight.
Now, there's some wide variety in how good focus spells are... but the high end is "technically not as strong as Fireball" when you look at stuff like Dragon Breath or Elemental Wrath that are running Heightened (+1):+2d6 damage. And it's important to remember that these are just two-action spells a sorcerer or whoever can reload between fights pretty easily.
With the current form of overflow, I think lower level impulses need to be around 50% more damage than cantrips to be on par (because 50% more actions), maybe a bit less. And high end ones are often 4 actions total, compared to 2 for focus spell nukes for significantly less damage (for comparison, at 18, you're looking at 3 rounds for 180 damage for 3x Dragon Breath in 6 actions, or 8 actions for 2x Shattered Mountain for... 100 damage.) There's a real issue that it feels like they don't compare well to things casters get to fling around freely.