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That's if you know your enemy or guess correctly. A flat item bonus removes the dynamism of spellcaster combat revolving around understanding foes.
Let's not kid ourselves. Fort is the most common high save in the game and even if you refuse to think and just blindly pick reflex you'll come out ahead more often than not. And if you do happen to take a moment to think about it, you can pretty easily discern which creatures are going to have good ref over good fort just on appearance.
Oh, because spell attack roll spells interact with fundamental design elements of the game differently than saving throws, get the inherent +1 benefit that goes to the roller over the defender with equal numbers, are much easier to boost, typically, by nature of being spells have more powerful and interesting critical effects and damage types than normal attacks, and have access to multiple, different reroll mechanics. All of those are factors getting frequently ignored in these conversations about spell attacks on message boards, but that I see with my own eyes happening in play very frequently.
Your own math puts single target damage spells under ideal conditions with true strike barely ahead of just throwing out a simple AoE against threatening solo targets.
What further factors do you want to consider? That throwing out the basic AoE saves you a 3rd action you can use for something else, perhaps an archetype psi message to get a reaction strike from a ranged attacker, or your own ranged weapon strike benefitting from all those attack roll modifiers anyway, hell maybe even a 3rd level single action magic missile (single target I guess, but why use one damage spell when you can fit in a second as action filler) ?
That the martial aiding you could instead use that action to do something more useful than a -10 attack (Their own TS, LoH, stolen psi cantrip, etc)? I don't think it takes much to outscale the pittance of extra damage you get from trying to enable your spell attack, and at worst you'll pull up a few points short while getting some other benefit in exchange from the improved action economy.
And yes, this assumes a +4 enemy. The most difficult solo encounter the game can throw at you. If single target damage spells can't significantly outperform AoE here, why bother using them at all when AoE spells will cover this scenario and every other extreme scenario with multiple foes.
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The main advantage of Command is in the fact that's as a lvl 1 it can be spammed by a prepared spellcaster with a Staff of Enchantment and specially is effective when you have a Fighter in the party where the hit hate of second check is higher. Also it's consume the opponent action and is the only effective way that I know to disarm without need to crit (yet it's not so useful than force the opponent to prone unless your GM consider that the char have to get down (prone), take the weapon then Stand).
As I said it's no like the Temporal Twin is bad it's just so good as some people think.
Making a comparison:Temporal Twin - Advantages
Only 1 check
Can be used with allies that haven't specific reactions
Temporal Twin - Disadvantages
Uses a lvl 3 spellslot
Some players may don't want to loose their reaction
Command - Advantages
Uses a lvl 1 spellslot
Can be spammable using staff
"Force" the opponent to use up 2-actions (1 forced to prone and another volunteer to stand)
Allies with Combat Reflexes can use their additional reaction
If the opponent fail in will save but the allied attack don't hit the opponent still looses actions
Command - Disadvantages
The reaction attack only works if the ally have AoO or similar reaction
Need 2 checks to do damage
I'll admit I've been sleeping on how good Command is with the right party composition. But I don't reaaaally think being spammable is a meaningful advantage when you're comparing it to a spell you just prepare once a day, or keep a scroll of if you're a spontaneous caster.
Also, you forgot one major disadvantage of Command... the Linguistic trait. I'd say the majority of encounters are against creatures that don't speak common, which makes sense as nothing averts a fight quicker than being able to talk it out. And creatures that do share a language will often have higher will saves. As such I'm not sure I'd want it for staff spam since there will be so many fights it won't work in.
For low level control and spammability, I prefer the Staff of Illusion. Illusory Object can very easily shave two actions off an enemy with no save, and potentially more if they fail their Seek check. You won't likely be triggering AoOs with it, but you just can't beat it for action denial and it works on most things, even as you level up.
... Though actually, Command and Illusory Object are nice to pair in the same repertoire. Creatures smart enough to not fall for illusions will likely understand your Command.
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IMO the best solution is an errata removing metamagic restriction from AMPs.
This restriction makes sense during playtest because unleash allows extra uses for AMPs without cost but now that's this was removed and every AMP workalike a normal focus spell this restriction no more make sense it's only adding a limitation to AMPs over other focus spells.
This simple solution basically solves the problem. As immediate solution homebrew games you can speak with your GM asking for ignore the metamagic restriction for Shadow Signet explaining that's this will restrict the attack AMPs in a way that doesn't happen to other AMPs and other focus spells and this will reduce the attack psychic a lot since level 10 making it less effective when compared to other casters.
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I think the amps thing is really cool.
I made up a human psychic and tried to sort of match him somewhat to my old psionic character from 3E. The flavor was pretty darn close.
The amps on cantrips makes him able to blast in basically every combat, and the actual spell slots I loaded with mental spells for mind controlling and stuff. It looks exciting to me.
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Let us also remember that this conversation has come up again because of psychics who can't use Shadow Signet on Amped cantrips and have less uses of true strike than any other caster with it on their list (less spells plus spontaneous casters can't charge up staves).
So we have a class in which a lot of their options involve spell attack rolls and they are least able to negate this disadvantages.
We can hope that the designers agree and add something to Treasure Vault. But it does seem unlikely. Unfortunately I expect that what is going to happen is that people will get frustrated with the Psychic class and it will go towards the bottom of the list of classes and just be a really great class to multiclass into.
If their spell attacks options are strictly better than those of other casters, I can see why they would not get the boosts to spell attacks that other casters get.
Same as Barbarian hitting less than Fighter but doing more damage when they hit.
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The difference in this situation would be that while the Barb is worst at hitting than the fighter, it’s not because they are below the baseline, it’s because the fighter is above the baseline.
The psychic is potentially in the inverse situation. I haven’t played a psychic yet to know personally, but I can certainly see why people are saying it.
(As a side note, and perhaps interestingly, the Dancing Blades cantrip looks like it would benefit from weapon potency runes. If that turns out to be true, then it will serve as an excellent test case on this whole issue)
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Let us also remember that this conversation has come up again because of psychics who can't use Shadow Signet on Amped cantrips and have less uses of true strike than any other caster with it on their list (less spells plus spontaneous casters can't charge up staves).
So we have a class in which a lot of their options involve spell attack rolls and they are least able to negate this disadvantages.
We can hope that the designers agree and add something to Treasure Vault. But it does seem unlikely. Unfortunately I expect that what is going to happen is that people will get frustrated with the Psychic class and it will go towards the bottom of the list of classes and just be a really great class to multiclass into.
I think you are massively overvaluing how critical spell attack rolls are for the psychic's effectiveness and people's perception of the class.
The only conscious that stands and falls based on your stance on spell attack rolls is Oscillating Wave, since that is their whole thing. Literally every other one doesn't care nearly as much. Infinite Eye and Silent Whisper don't care at all. Tangible Dream has better things to do with their focus points. Unbound Step sort-of cares, since Phase Bolt is the main active thing from their subclass, but Phase Bolt has the least problems of any spell attack roll, as it ignores all forms of cover that you would even consider challenging and shields.
The only other conscious mind that is actually concerned is Distant Grasp. I've not played it yet beyond making the character, but I don't expect that to be a massive concern either. Here is why: it largely only matters in situations where spell attack roll spells are the best option anyway. Whenever you have 2 or more targets that don't have insane fort saves, you will prioritise Telekinetic Rend for amping and Unleash. When you have a single beefy monster, your first turn will be spend debuffing it anyways, so you might as well cast fear, synesthesia or something similar. Then you blast it with amped+unleashed Telekinetic Projectile, which is about as good as any other caster can do as far as damage is concerned. Dancing Blade I only expect to use offensively when movement is not an issue, in which case after I cast it, it basically becomes a 1-action bonus attempt at a bit of damage. For a cantrip, you won't get much better if that is what you want. Not a huge part for me, though, all the important parts come before it and I can substitute it with Psi Blast.
So yeah, unless you are only interested in 1 of the 6 subclasses, then I wouldn't worry about it too much.
I also have some good tips for (newer) people who are struggling with spell attack rolls, particularly the psychic.
The more universal tip is that bless scrolls are extremely affordable very quickly. 4gp and carrying it around in your hand is not a bad deal. The psychic with their anaemic spell slot number in the early game in particular appreciate having something to do round 1, as a setup for your big Unleash in round 2.
The other one - do your best to build party synergy with an eye on your melees providing universal flat-footed. A free-hand fighter with Snagging Strike is an extremely fund and helpful frontliner for any party with people relying on attack rolls at range (not just casters). So is the rogue, particularly the thief, starting at level 9. The sword critical specialisation helps, but is less reliable for obvious reasons.