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Fun thread trying to gauge the prospect of high level play.
Let's assume that for each Scenario printed in a given level range, there needs to be two Scenarios exactly one tier lower printed to support it, for now, leaving all other Adventure types (Bounties, Quests, One-Shots, APs) aside.
Tiers
"Epic" @ 17th-20th
"Legendary" @ 15th-18th
"Superhero" @ 13th-16th
"Heroic" @ 11th-14th
"Paragon" @ 9th-12th
"Master" @ 7th-10th
"Advanced" @ 5th-8th
"Expert" @ 3rd-6th
"Beginner" @ 1st-4th
It follows that to sustain one Epic Scenario, there would need to be: 2x Legendary + 4x Superhero + 8x Heroic + 16x Paragon + 32x Master + 64x Advanced + 128x Expert + 256x Beginner = Summation of Several Consecutive Powers of Two = 510 other Scenarios total.
If we distribute this across Seasons that publish about 30 Scenarios per Season, I predict that the first 17th-20th "Epic" Scenario will come out in the year 2036.
What do you think?
Cheers!
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If you're excluding non scenarios from your calculation, it takes 6 tier (n-1) scenarios to support the _first_ tier n scenario. Though it doesn't take any to support the next 5. So the lower bound on the number of scenarios needed is linear, not exponential in number of tiers.
The linear structure isn't healthy for the campaign/new players, so we would never except to see the linear limit reached, but I don't think we'll see the full power of two tree either.
We already have so many repeatable options that I think the campaign could choose to under-provision 1-4s for a season or two if they wish for story telling purposes/ If we get another 3-6 repeatable (for 3 total), again you start to need fewer of them in each season. It would be pretty easy to have season 4 for instance be almost entirely 5-8/7-10/9-12s, with a capstone 11-14 if they wanted to build up that part of the pyramid before refreshing the lower levels again.
The current spread of scenarios is very healthy and provides a lot of options for them to push higher if they want to, faster than I was expecting them to. And once you add in the other sanctioned content (at least quests/bounties if you don't want to include adventures/AP/one-shots) there's an even stronger low level base support.
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Through Bounties and other Repeatables you can currently get a character to Level 5 before even dipping into non-Repeatables. Although by this point in PFS1 we did have the Level 12 Retirement Arc already, whereas PFS2 is only now rolling out Tier 7-10s. So while there is a ton of lower level content, I am wondering what the exact plan is for higher levels.
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I would probably do the math a little differently.
In order for there to make sense to have the next tier scenario, you would need to be able to have 6 scenarios worth of credit (PFS only, no modules or AP credit counted) from the previous tier. (and for good measure, probably don't count the specials)
For example: In order to reasonably offer a 7-10, it makes sense that you should have at least 6 5-8s.
So, following that train...one 17-20 needs at least...
6 15-18s
6 13-16s
6 11-14s
6 9-12s
6 7-10s
6 5-8s
6 3-6s and
9 1-4s
totaling 51 scenarios
If Paizo introduces the next tier of scenario every year that would put the first 'Epic' tier scenario at 2026. I suspect however, that this is not what their rate will be, but maybe.
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I would probably do the math a little differently.
In order for there to make sense to have the next tier scenario, you would need to be able to have 6 scenarios worth of credit (PFS only, no modules or AP credit counted) from the previous tier. (and for good measure, probably don't count the specials)
For example: In order to reasonably offer a 7-10, it makes sense that you should have at least 6 5-8s.
So, following that train...one 17-20 needs at least...
6 15-18s
6 13-16s
6 11-14s
6 9-12s
6 7-10s
6 5-8s
6 3-6s and
9 1-4s
totaling 51 scenariosIf Paizo introduces the next tier of scenario every year that would put the first 'Epic' tier scenario at 2026. I suspect however, that this is not what their rate will be, but maybe.
That would put it something like 4 years earlier than PFS1.
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We already have so many repeatable options that I think the campaign could choose to under-provision 1-4s for a season or two if they wish for story telling purposes/ If we get another 3-6 repeatable (for 3 total), again you start to need fewer of them in each season. It would be pretty easy to have season 4 for instance be almost entirely 5-8/7-10/9-12s, with a capstone 11-14 if they wanted to build up that part of the pyramid before refreshing the lower levels again.
That's great for all of us who have played all of the scenarios since PF2 released (and GM'ed a fair number too), but that does not take into account new players who are coming into the community as time goes by. Offer them older 1-4's you say? Well then that is going to segregate them from the experienced player base. And what if you only have 1 or 2 new people join your local group? Its better to have a healthy amount of lower level scenarios so that you are able to keep a healthy growing community.