I'm planning on potentially running this AP in the near future, and one of my players expressed interest in playing a Fire focused Kineticist(he expressed this desire before the AP was even brought up as an option).
For a fair few APs this worries me because the further they get in the more monsters he can't potentially deal with due to their immunity to fire. Having skimmed through the first few books on Reign of Winter on the other hand makes me worry for the opposite, that he'll "overperform" too often and it'll negatively effect both his and the other players enjoyment because the threats quite literally melt away, alongside the greater chance for enemies to single him out because he presents himself as the greater threat throwing fire around.
So I guess my question is this. Does a Fire Kineticist over excel to a negative degree in this AP, or does the prevalence of encounters that he can do well in bring him more up to par with other damage focused characters?
As a note the player wanting to play the Kineticist is the most experienced player at the table and has a desire not to overshadow the party to much after having unintentionally done so in the current campaign. The rest of the players have some experience in playing Pathfinder and tabletop RPGs in general, but are still rather new
It is a double edged sword. I just finished the first volume of the AP as a GM, with a Fire Oracle. Yes, he is very powerfull, but he also got to run a lot. Most encounters in RoW are with harsh angry monsters, who do not fear fire but hate it. You're going to do the dammage but you're also going to be focus hard!
My group has a sorcerer who specializes in fire spells. Yes, he is very effective, but also very vulnerable. There are enough creatures with cold subtype for him to shine, but he needs the others to protect him from danger so that he can do what he does best.
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I wouldn't worry about it. A firey blaster in RoW is about as good as an Aquatic Sorcerer or something in S&S. Good, but one of the only places they will ever excel. Let them shine here, if nowhere else.
I am a fire sorcerer in this AP and It's totally great! Yes, You are a target, but blasters and such are always at target, and are always vulnerable. The sheer amount of things vulnerable to fire in this AP makes any investment in fire damage definitely worth it.
Fire Kineticist is a solid choice for this Adventure Path. They dish out huge amounts of damage versus all of the Fire Vulnerable enemies, and decent damage against everything else. They also sidestep the HP problems with other blasters, as they are d8 hit dice and CON-based.
I'm playing a Kineticist in RoW right now, and as long as they are careful about shoring up their abysmal will save and middling AC, they'll be just fine. As for overshadowing the party, my suggestion is to focus on staying mobile and avoiding overuse of Empower MetaKinesis; melee can also become a bit ridiculous if they choose to take Kinetic Whip, Kinetic Form, and Combat Reflexes (10ft reach with Whip, 20ft reach with Whip and Form, and at 16th level it becomes 30ft reach with Whip and Form).