It's happening now.
On one side you have the elected president, Erdogan, who was slowly but surely reducing democatic spaces in Turkey. On the other you have the military attempting to seize teh power with a violent coup.
Whoever wins things are going to turn ugly.
Edit: seems the last coup was in 1980. Whoa. Talk about living in interesting times...
The coup seems to have failed, and now the President [of Turkey] is vowing retribution.
That could spiral out of control quickly...
Turkey is a bit of an 'odd case' in terms of coups, if memory serves.
Due to the fall-out after the First World War, Turkey's military is actually charged by the Turkish constitution to take charge if the civilian government is running the country into the dirt.
The check on this is that for the Turkish military to do this, the need has to be exceptional and compelling, and they don't do it for very long, because they aren't bureaucrats, financial experts, merchants, or the like.
So the sooner things get resolved, the sooner things go back to normal for everyone.
With what's been seen, I'm of the opinion that this was a "fake" coup.
2000+ judges being fired in retaliation seems a bit quick with the time frame.
Fake coup? Nah. Only paranoid people would ever buy into shit like conspiracies.
Looks like the purge is clocking in at 50k and counting...
~looks at the list~ Yep. Right here. Number 853. If I were an evil overlord, I would do...
Looks like the purge is clocking in at 50k and counting...
I'm not so sure it was staged, but I'm pretty sure it was an enormous gift to Erdogan. He must have had quite a list ready for something like this.
Yeah. Not good.
More people drinking the paranoid conspiracy kool-aid, I see. Get real, people.
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I hope you're joking, Sissyl, because not only are you being really rude, you're sounding a bit naive. My dad actually has a friend in Turkey who's expressed the same belief as those here. For one thing, the arrests that followed the coup came bizarrely quickly and bizarrely numerously—to the extent that it seemed lists had been drawn up in advance. For another, from what I've heard, the soldiers assigned to raid Erdogan's place reportedly didn't even know they were targeting Erdogan. And then you have the futile attempt itself, suspicious events surrounding Erdogan's "escape"...
Nothing's certain. But to dismiss it out of hand as "paranoid" is sort of absurd. This isn't 9/11 truthism, this is a very real possibility from a ruler who himself is known for his extreme paranoia.
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More people drinking the paranoid conspiracy kool-aid, I see. Get real, people.
~laughter~ Why don't you go read some history before speaking. Stranger things than this have occurred in the past. Besides, paranoid people often act irrationally.
It is very easy to get called paranoid on these boards. Not agreeing with the official American government line is the easiest way. As for Turkey, I find it quite likely it WAS a staged coup... But there have been so many other such events worldwide - and I have run into a wall of being called paranoid over most of them, it seems. As an example, Silvio Berlusconi getting attacked with a statue.
As for 9/11, note that the Patriot Act took very little time to get implemented. Almost as if they had prepared it beforehand, no? And the president at the time was a rather peculiar person who implemented the use of extrajudicial killings of American citizens, widespread torture, dehumanising war camps, etc. And there were various suspicious circumstances around it all... Which were precisely the criteria used to justify the Turkish coup to be a conspiracy.
I am not saying 9/11 was an inside job. I am saying that even though you do not like to think about it, your government is not necessarily on your side at every turn. Being aware of that is likely to become very important in the near future. So maybe you should stop ridiculing people for being so?
Wait. What?
*heads to the emergency room to get checked out for whiplash trying to follow the recent logic in this thread*
Here we go...
The Patriot Act was modified from a lot of earlier bills, actually. They didn't write it all at once. Just pointing that out.
And by the same token, the number of arrests in Turkey prove nothing other than perhaps an active intelligence community. Of course they have kept their eyes on people. That is what happens in turbulent times.
If a bona fide military coup happened in the US, and was deterred, how many would be arrested in the first weeks?
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...you know, I'm not going to pursue this. Not every thread has to be about the United States.
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Why would Erdogan even need to fake a coup ?
He was lawfully elected, has a very strong popular support, had years to consolidate his power and did so, and has nothing to fear from foreign interference, as exemplified by his holding on power and crushing his political opponents through relaunching the war with the PKK some months ago in a worldwide silence
Were lists already drawn of people hostile to him ? Of course, likely have been for a very long time and ready to be used when the opportunity arises. Which it just did
Not to mention the lists in people's heads, the better to prove their devotion, real or not
The word for this is witchhunt
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Check the date on THIS ARTICLE. Let's just say a coup was considered likely as early as the 30th of may.
Then consider THESE EVENTS. In light of what happened later (the coup) it seems Erdogan was "covering his bases" because he knew the coup was being staged and took paces to prevent it.
Lastly consider that IRAN CLAIMS THE RUSSIANS WARNED ERDOGAN of the incoming coup so he was able to save himself and now pro Erdogan media (well, the only kind of media left in Turkey after all...) are blaiming AN AMERICAN GENERAL for beign the one behind the coup.
What's the truth? There are not enough facts to determine it, and there most probably will never be (such is the nature of the espionage community and the arcana imperii ruling much of the real foreign policy), but I feel like a strong case could be made about Erdogan knowing fully well about the coup and mending fences with the russians so to avoid it. Personally I suspect Erdogan decided to "detonate" the situation before it could be really put into motion. IMO he precipitated events, possibly with the russian secret service help, and then used his victory to "clean house" in his own way.
I'd also say this could be a sign of what foreign policy under Hillary Clinton will be like. This seemed exactly like something she would have done (check her ideas on Syria and what she did in Latin America).
New update: Apparently, Turkish police are now going to be probing people who've expressed the belief that the attempt was a hoax to further Erdogan's power. Apparently, the claim is that anyone saying that may have "been involved", and is thus an acceptable target for this purge.
Holy Gestapo, Fudgeman!
Why would Erdogan even need to fake a coup ?
He was lawfully elected, has a very strong popular support
From what I understand, the majority of people in Turkey really detest Erdogan. Just because they opposed the coup doesn't mean they liked the guy it was set to oust.
Now, he and the AKP might have helped it along, but the is different than staging it.
Typically this is called such things as aiding and abetting, conspiracy, entrapment and a whole slew of other legalese things.
i.e., taking advantage of the gift in the horse's mouth. Doesn't lessen the obscene numbers of people already purged with, apparently, more on the way under the flimsiest of pretexts.
60,000+ purged or arrested awaiting purging. Scarily, this is dated back to the 22nd. One wonders what horrors have unfolded since then.
Erdogan's minions are doing a scary-fast job of rounding up anyone that even speaks badly of his regime. Bad times...
Haven't seen any follow-up articles, although this may sometimes fly under my radar.
Saw this just now. 5 million+ rallying to the newest fascist state of the world. Or, close enough to one, at the rate things are going.
Indeed.
There seems to be no winning here. Either it's totalitarian evil government or anarchist evil anti-government.
I don't think it was staged. Rather Erdogan expected a coup since years and prepared accordingly. In rare cases, paranoia is actually helpful...
Here in Germany we hear bad news about Turkey every day. And it has some disturbing parallels to Hitler in 1933. I hope at least some people there manage to escape the upcoming desaster...
Erdogen has the most powerful combination of forces working in his favor: religion and nationalism. Fascist Germany was bad enough. Fascist religious extremism is a significantly nastier combination.
As with Iran, Erdogen's regime is able to point at the U.S. as a source of their perceived woes. They have at least one minority to pick on relentlessly (Kurds are the largest group as I understand it). So far, no one is willing to stand up to them. Unlike 1930's Germany, Turkey has a major power in geographic proximity that will back their play (Russia). Additionally they are NATO members, which further insulates them from any major powers.
Given the other goings-on in the world, and depending on how one interprets the tea leaves of the economy-at-large, Erdogen's regime is poised to do almost anything they want to.
Historically, I think the military staged coups in order to help prevent the religious extremism from getting out of control. (That they apparently had to intervene on a regular basis says a lot...)
Of course, if all those willing to help ensure moderation have been purged out, that leaves the radicals in charge...
Erdogen has the most powerful combination of forces working in his favor: religion and nationalism. Fascist Germany was bad enough. Fascist religious extremism is a significantly nastier combination.
As with Iran, Erdogen's regime is able to point at the U.S. as a source of their perceived woes. They have at least one minority to pick on relentlessly (Kurds are the largest group as I understand it). So far, no one is willing to stand up to them. Unlike 1930's Germany, Turkey has a major power in geographic proximity that will back their play (Russia). Additionally they are NATO members, which further insulates them from any major powers.
Given the other goings-on in the world, and depending on how one interprets the tea leaves of the economy-at-large, Erdogen's regime is poised to do almost anything they want to.
Internally, sure. They might even be able to convince the big players to let them grab a chunk of Syria in the name of "helping end the Syrian Civil War". They're not going to be conquering Europe or the Middle East. They're not going to be allowed to rebuild the Ottoman Empire.
If Russia's backing them, which isn't that clear - Russia's been backing Assad and there've been some "unintentional" clashes, IIRC - then at worst it becomes a proxy war. If Russia doesn't back them, then they're on their own against US and European interests. Unless, they're NATO backed, but that's just the proxy war in the other direction.
I'm not at all sure what you expect them to be able to do - other than internal abuse.
In the short-ish term, Erdogen's regime will be focused internally, much the same as 1930's Germany. Maybe grab a slice of Syria as you mention.
Right now, Erdogen's regime is not making noises about reclaiming the old Ottoman Empire. They have Cyprus to finish annexing should they so choose. Given Russian success in Crimea, how much less geopolitically important Cyprus is compared to Crimea and the Ukraine, Cyprus seems likely to be handled about the same as it was when Turkey occupied and colonized the northern third in 1974. i.e., not at all.
Long-term is going to be a matter of opportunity. Erdogen's regime has demonstrated enough patience to pounce when opportunity presents itself.
Turkey has a long-standing dispute with Greece over several islands/islets in the Aegean. At least twice in modern times they've nearly gone to war over these claims.
There's the Hatay province, the major cities of which are Iskenderun and Antioch/Antakya. Syria probably wouldn't surrender the province without a fight ... but then, they may not be in much of a position to do much about it against Turkey. I'm not sure what state Syria's military is in relative to Turkey's.
Mosul seems to be a heavily Kurdish area, making it a prime target for Erdogen's regime should they so decide.
Today There is a call to immediately close Incirlik USAFB. Citing the base as a threat to the Middle East - and dovetail that with the previous articles mentioning that Turkish forces have isolated the base, makes that intention clear.