Idea: Why there was no plunder die in the game box?

[NyteJKL]

cartmanbeck wrote:

The dice order has been put in and paid for! I'll let you guys know when I have an estimate on when the dice will arrive, and at that point I'll ask for your PayPal payments for the dice. Exciting!

Those who did NOT put in an order yet and might still be interested, after I distribute the dice to all the people who ordered, I'll let you all know if there are extras!

Was wondering if there was any update on this? Not sure if I may have missed an email or anything.

[cartmanbeck]

I actually just got the shipping e-mail for the dice yesterday morning, so they should be getting to me very soon. I'm going to put together the e-mail to those who ordered a die right now, so check your inbox for instructions on getting payment to me, and I should start shipping them toward the end of this week/beginning of next week.

[cartmanbeck]

Here's what the Plunder Dice turned out to be! I think they look great!

Plunder Dice

Those of you who ordered dice, I'll be shipping them out over the next two weeks or so, and I'll let you know when yours ships.

[Andrew L Klein]

Those look awesome! Paying ASAP!

[Tanis O'Connor]

Awesome!

[cartmanbeck]

Tanis, I'm saving a couple of my extras for you and Mike when I come to PaizoCon, just so you know! :)

[Tanis O'Connor]

cartmanbeck wrote:

Tanis, I'm saving a couple of my extras for you and Mike when I come to PaizoCon, just so you know! :)

I can only favorite this once, which is unfortunate.

[hfm]

That turned out really nice, congrats guys. Great initiative!

[Mike Selinker]

Swell.

[Troymk1]

They look great !

[Myfly]

Finally, I got my PREMIUM PLUNDER DIE parcel here in Germany.
I did not check prior to that this thread (cartmanbecks die arrival post). I was really surprised when I opened the parcel and saw the dice for the very first time. They look amazing. Rolling them is also cool. So I am very happy with the manufacturing and the materials used.

I did the die design within 1 hour. However, there were several pre-production steps necessary with the custom die company in order to get the following result...

Watch here My customized PREMIUM Plunder die for PACG rolling.

What do you think?

I did not check the probability distribution of the die. I have no time for this due to my newborn twins. You are welcome to do it...
Is there any symbol appearing more often than the others ?
It could be the ALLY as its white surface is the biggest of all other symbols and thus this is the most light-weight side of the die which most likely comes up. Please roll the die plenty of times to see if the distribution is right...

I hope you like my idea and design. Thanks for cartmanbeck doing the shipping within North America.

Mike

[Andrew L Klein]

I'd like to think they'd adjust the depth slightly to account for a large image on the ally face of the die. Even if not though, I highly doubt it makes enough of a difference to notice. Looking forward to getting my dice!

[hfm]

Fortunately with a d6 it probably doesn't matter as long as there are no wild extrusions that would cause a die to not stop on a side when it normally would. This would be nearly impossible on a d6. Usually this is only something that would happen on a die with more sides, especially a d20. d20 is notorious for small imperfections (usually an extruded plastic nub) causing it to stop on a certain side less frequently.

[jones314]

Just got my plunder die today. I wanted to say that it looks awesome and I can't wait to use it. Thanks to Myfly and Cartmanbeck for this project.

[NyteJKL]

Wanted to also post that I received mine today. Thanks MyFly and Cartmanbeck!

[cartmanbeck]

No problem at all, I'm glad this worked out so well! I've got just a couple more people that need to send me their addresses (I emailed them and have gotten no response) so if I don't hear back from them by this coming Friday I will count up my extras and see how many I have left.

[Andrew L Klein]

Got mine today, very impressed! Well worth the purchase, can't wait to use.

[Myfly]

Thanks for the appraisels...

I have one more huge PACG project in the pipeline... this one is even more amazing!!

@@

However the twins and other projects are more important at the moment.

Anybody has Premium plunder die experience yet?
I would be interested when you roll the die 100times what are the distribution results...
Has anybody a shaky hand?

[Andrew L Klein]

I did two test runs 100 rolls each. The last number is the mathematica

RESULT (CORRESPONDING DIE NUMBER) - TIMES ROLLED

Set A
Weapon (1) - 10
Spell (2) - 19
Armor (3) - 22
Item (4) - 21
Ally (5) - 14
Choose (6) - 14

AVERAGE ROLL - 3.52

Set B
Weapon (1) - 15
Spell (2) - 13
Armor (3) - 15
Item (4) - 29
Ally (5) - 11
Choose (6) - 17

AVERAGE ROLL- 3.59

Combined
Weapon (1) - 25
Spell (2) - 32
Armor (3) - 37
Item (4) - 50
Ally (5) - 25
Choose (6) - 31

AVERAGE ROLL - 3.555

In a perfect world where the odds always happen, each side would be rolled 16 2/3 times in 100 rolls, and 33 1/3 times in 200. In my first 100, it wasn't too bad. In the second, it seemed like every result that came out below average was replaced by an Item roll. During some unrecorded random rolls yesterday, though, I got a lot of weapons, so it does even out and doesn't tend to roll one side more than the others.

As for the average roll, it definitely came out right. The average roll of a D6 is 3.5, and assigning the symbols to the right numbers, I averaged within 0.1 of that for all 3 sets.

[Myfly]

Great Andrew!

[hfm]

Andrew L Klein wrote:

I did two test runs 100 rolls each. The last number is the mathematica

...
AVERAGE ROLL - 3.555

In a perfect world where the odds always happen, each side would be rolled 16 2/3 times in 100 rolls, and 33 1/3 times in 200. In my first 100, it wasn't too bad. In the second, it seemed like every result that came out below average was replaced by an Item roll. During some unrecorded random rolls yesterday, though, I got a lot of weapons, so it does even out and doesn't tend to roll one side more than the others.

As for the average roll, it definitely came out right. The average roll of a D6 is 3.5, and assigning the symbols to the right numbers, I averaged within 0.1 of that for all 3 sets.

That looks about right, 100 isn't nearly enough to be statistically significant but there's so little chance a d6 could be affected by a minuscule imperfection I doubt you'd ever notice if it was ever so slightly biased. You'd be able to see it if there was something about the die that would greatly affect it's randomness.

EDIT: found this, interesting reading. http://www.awesomedice.com/blog/353/d20-dice-randomness-test-chessex-vs-gam escience/

[jones314]

I took Andrew's data and did a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test. Basically we're looking to see how well the observed results would fit with the hypothesis of a uniform distribution. I got a chi-squared test statistic of 13.12 which gives a p-value of .022. So that means that we have a significant result at the 5% level but not the 1% level. The die (Andrew's die at least) is not perfectly uniform, probably.

[Tanis O'Connor]

Oh jones314, you warm my statistician heart.

[Myfly]

jones314 wrote:

I took Andrew's data and did a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test. Basically we're looking to see how well the observed results would fit with the hypothesis of a uniform distribution. I got a chi-squared test statistic of 13.12 which gives a p-value of .022. So that means that we have a significant result at the 5% level but not the 1% level. The die (Andrew's die at least) is not perfectly uniform, probably.

I am an engineer... But ... Well ... Jones seems to have a PHD in math ;-)

Andrew had two dice ... Could you please analyse these two separately?
From the engineering viewpoint, you cant mix/combine two different random dice as they are most likely different in their manufacturing deviations...

Ha ... Got you ;-)

[jones314]

Hmmm, couldn't tell if he had two dice or if he did the same test twice on the one die. Assuming it was two dice:

Set A gives a p-value of .246, so not statistically significant.

Set B gives a p-value of .032, so significant at the 5% level.

But this is not really surprising because if we roll a die enough times, we will eventually get a statistically significant result, since dice can't be manufactured to be perfectly uniform.

[Myfly]

How many d6 die rolls are required to be 100 % sure that there is no statistical significance?

Lets roll Andrew's die 1000 times ;-)))

[jones314]

Myfly wrote:

How many d6 die rolls are required to be 100 % sure that there is no statistical significance?

Lets roll Andrew's die 1000 times ;-)))

If you get a large enough sample size, you can eventually find statistical significance. But we have to ask if there's practical significance. For Andrew's results, maybe there's a little bit of practical significance that Item seems to be slightly favored. Or maybe not. If we rolled many of these plunder dice many times, then maybe we could be more definite.

But please, roll a die 1000 times and report the results :D

[Andrew L Klein]

A few things

1) I forgot to put my number of dice. Each set of 100 was 4 dice rolled together 25 times.

2) As I said before, I've had compelete opposite results in other random rolls. My first 10-15 rolls of the group had a lot of weapons and not nearly as many items.

[jones314]

Well, without knowing which die got which results, I think the tests I did are out the window, lol.

[Andrew L Klein]

Muahahahahahah!!!!!

I'll give each one it's own set of 100 rolls over tonight and tomorrow. Once you got all detailed and whatnot my statistic loving mind got all happy.

[Myfly]

Just put 4 dice tower in a row and roll thru each dice tower one die... Which finally ends separated in each die tray... In this way you dont mix them up...

[Myfly]

So here are the die results from germany:

Shield 40
Sword 36
Any 40
Ally 37
Item 34
Spell 28

Please consider that the coriolis force is different here in germany than in the states...
Dice roll in another way. ;-)

The german premium plunder die creator.

[jones314]

Is that one die rolled 215 times?

[Myfly]

Yes. 1 die only! I used a dice tower to have standard throw results...

[jones314]

On your die rolled 215 times I get a chi-squared test statistic of 2.814 and p-value of .729. This is far above any standard alpha (like 10%, 5%, or 1%). So we have no evidence that the die is not uniformly distributed. The expected value for for each category is about 36. Only Spell was more than 4 away from that.

Myfly's die shows no statistical deviation (with this sample) from the hypothesis of a perfectly fair die. If he rolled it many more times, eventually we could discern what sides are maybe favored.

[Myfly]

Jones, you are using a MATLAB function, right?

[jones314]

Myfly wrote:

Jones, you are using a MATLAB function, right?

Just a TI-84 calculator.

[hfm]

Myfly wrote:

Yes. 1 die only! I used a dice tower to have standard throw results...

Give me a die, Vasily. One die only, please.

[Andrew Eakett]

Any news on left-overs for sale to us late-comers?

[Myfly]

I have some left overs... please sent me PM.

[Andrew Eakett]

PM sent.

[Myfly]

Project completed.

If you are happy with your premium plunder die, then please give it a

THUMB UP/ RECOMMEND on BGG here

Go to Premium Plunder Die on BGG.