Quark Blast |
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FWIW - The manager at one of my FLGSs, the one that still carries significant Paizo product, has said his experience and that of the other store owners he knows (not sure how many but a half a dozen?), matches what Amazon is telling us. Which is still a guess but one with regional implications if not national or global.
Quark Blast |
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Then there's this from Scott Thorne:
Wizards of the Coast's Dungeons & Dragons Starter Set is one of the best marketing tools any company in the Gaming Industry currently uses, and is a wonderful example of using this concept. Get people to try out a low-cost version of the game, and then, when they find they like it, upgrade them to the more expensive version.
The guy's an econ prof and has been running a gaming store for decades. This one also seems hard to miss.
Did Paizo do this for PF2?OK, I see I missed this thread here:
How soon can we expect a Beginner Box
Pathfinder Second Edition General Discussion
...aaand the answer seems to be a hard no for now. Try back again in two years.
Malaclypse |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Oooo... yeah, that's not great. Guess we'll see what the numbers say in another 3 months.
It hasn't been three months, but right now it's at #13, behind 'old' supplements for 5e such as Xanathars, Mordenkainen's and Volo's. Also behind preorders for the new Eberron campaign setting book and the Baldur's Gate adventure. Hmmmm.
Quark Blast |
For a smaller company like Paizo I would think slow-and-steady sales is their goal. Boom-Bust business is a hard (and unfun) business to manage.
There is also some uncertainty about how much is sold directly from Paizo and other online sources but I would be surprised if those sources differed significantly from Amazon.
OTOH, this seems to answer with some definiteness the question for the OP.
Jester David |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
This thread is super interesting to read through, especially the speculation early into the game's lifespan.
The solid belief that a slow release schedule was bad and not sustainable, or that WotC wouldn't be able to restore its reputation in the community, or that the brand would never be able to grow in recognition let alone get close to the heights of the early 1980s.
Or even that Pathfinder might still rival D&D in sales and serve as lasting competition...
Other thought:
It's 2019 and 5e still hasn't given me a proper urban druid, a psionic, a firearm dedicated class, a hybrid divine/arcane caster, an alchemist and about a dozen other things I'd like to see but WotC is too afraid of evoking nightmares of 3.5/PF1 bloat to move away from their glacial pace of printing player-side options.
Which is absolutely fine with many people, but I'd have my game of choice sit somewhere between the baroque splurge of PF1 and the monastic asceticism of 5e. There's a reneassaince-sized hole between the two and I'm looking forward to Paizo exploiting it.
Keep in mind that's Pathfinder 1's release schedule of two splatbooks every year was also considered a "glacial pace of printing player-side options" compared to 3e and 4e which had new player facing books every 2-3 months.
It didn't take Pathfinder long to go from "restrained 3e" to "baroque splurge".
And that's the catch. Because if 5e had done one Xanathar-sized splatbook a year since release (which feels like a small amount of content) each class would have well over a dozen subclasses for likely over 150-PC choices spread out over six books. And that's a LOT of content.
Plus, at that point you're also releasing content faster than you can test. WotC has done two playtests of a psionic class and neither was particularly well received; had they been releasing a new class every year (or even every other year) they'd have likely said "eh, close enough" and released the Mystic they did in 2017 to make their arbitrary deadline.
You don't want to release content faster than players can consume or play said content.
Especially when you also want to grow the game. D&D added a staggering number of new players in 2017 and 2018, and having a small number of options almost certainly helped.
I've often compared RPG release schedules to board games. There's a LOT of expansions to Catan, but they don't expect everyone to buy all the expansions nor do they expect people to play with all of them all the time. And they certainly don't release 1-2 expansions every single year.
Bluenose |
I've often compared RPG release schedules to board games. There's a LOT of expansions to Catan, but they don't expect everyone to buy all the expansions nor do they expect people to play with all of them all the time. And they certainly don't release 1-2 expansions every single year.
Depends on how you define expansions, Catan has at least 30 products in addition to the main set, if you include all the expansions, extensions, scenario packs, historical versions and licenced products like Star Trek: Catan - and that doesn't count the card game version. Which comes to a bit more than one addition each year.
I think the only companies which actually match the frenetic release schedule we saw with 1990s TSR, 3e/4e WotC and Paizo are some wargames manufacturers. Games Workshop, say, who have the problems you describe earlier of poor playtesting of new material and the same regular accusations of power-creep after every new splat/faction book. And now I'm imagining 9th edition D&D being cancelled in favour of Age of Elminster.
Quark Blast |
Back to the OP:
Right now PF2 Core Rulebook, if it were a WotC product, would be ranking between #15 and #20 in the D&D 5e line of products.
I think that safely means the number of quarters is an indeterminate but large number; likely to go on for years more yet.
One of the things that's different is all of the tie-in products for the D&D 5e line. The Stranger Things starter set box, the Rick and Morty box, the Upcoming Movie (maybe?), and too many more to list here, with at least that many more in the works (depending on who you listen to).
Quark Blast |
And then here: TARIFFS HIT HASBRO SALES, EARNINGS
There's this prediction:
Wizards of the Coast’s Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons were two bright spots in Hasbro’s Q3, an otherwise tough quarter...
Other Wizards of the Coast news from the conference call included the revelation that the company has “close to a dozen {digital} games in development for delivery over the next five to six years;” the acknowledgment that that “only a small percentage” of sales on Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons is captured by NPD data (that’s the percentage that goes through chains or online retailers such as Amazon); and the belief at Hasbro that WotC sales can be doubled over the next five years, “…as we’ve accomplished over the past five years.”
Dang!
:oQuark Blast |
Doubling in the next 5 years is impressive. Doubling in the last five was coming off a pretty low ebb, so is less impressive. (In fact, I'm surprised that in 2013 they sold half of what they sold in 2018. I would have predicted the increase to be way more than double).
When I think of WotC sales doubling over the past 5 years I'm seeing mostly MtG in that metric. I'll bet D&D 5e at least quadrupled. Which sounds impressive except, as you point out, they start with a very low initial figure.
Doubling over the next 5 years will truly be impressive but again that has to be mostly MtG. Though with all the tie-in products and activities for D&D it will follow along with its bigger brother surely.
Quark Blast |
Oh, cheers. I read that too quickly. That makes more sense to me (though I still find it impressive so deep into Magic’s lifetime).
It's impressive to me too since MtG has absolutely no pull on me. A couple friends in high school were big on it but not me, or my cousin, or any of his friends.
Back to the OP:
Another proxy might be to look at the relative staff sizes. Since TTRPGs aren't like popular CCGs (which is a virtual way to print money it seems), the comparison of staff sizes would be apt.
Quark Blast |
So it turns out that convincing and qualitative answers were available here since October 2nd:
Dungeons & Dragons Creators and Celebrity Players Explain Its Recent Surge in Popularity
Quark Blast |
Quark Blast |
To answer my own question here:
1)D&D5e
2)PF2e
3)Shadowrun 6e
4)V:tM 5e
5)Star Wars - FFGs edition
Interesting discussion on the same topic over at ENWorld
Looks like the consensus is the SF release schedule caused it to be temporarily(?) shoved off the Top 5 list.
Quark Blast |
More tie-ins like this will keep things on the current trajectory:
Wizards of the Coast Announces CRITICAL ROLE setting for D&D' --> Explorer's Guide to Wildemount
Steve Geddes |
More tie-ins like this will keep things on the current trajectory:
Wizards of the Coast Announces CRITICAL ROLE setting for D&D' --> Explorer's Guide to Wildemount
I'll be interested to see how this goes.
There's been a reasonable amount of complaints about this (my initial thought was that I'd skip it, but chances are I'll pick it up just to be complete).
Despite my personal ambivalence, I was expecting it to be met with much more positive press than it actually got.
Steve Geddes |
To answer my own question here:
1)D&D5e
2)PF2e
3)Shadowrun 6e
4)V:tM 5e
5)Star Wars - FFGs editionInteresting discussion on the same topic over at ENWorld
Looks like the consensus is the SF release schedule caused it to be temporarily(?) shoved off the Top 5 list.
I think the fact that three of those top five were "new edition core releases" would have had something to do with it too. (Four maybe? I don't keep track of the Star Wars stuff anymore).
Gorbacz |
2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Quark Blast wrote:More tie-ins like this will keep things on the current trajectory:
Wizards of the Coast Announces CRITICAL ROLE setting for D&D' --> Explorer's Guide to Wildemount
I'll be interested to see how this goes.
There's been a reasonable amount of complaints about this (my initial thought was that I'd skip it, but chances are I'll pick it up just to be complete).
Despite my personal ambivalence, I was expecting it to be met with much more positive press than it actually got.
Critical Role has a second season problem - their first campaign made them superstars, made people cosplay the hell out of characters, got all the loves and cuddly wuzzly feels.
And then it was over.
And a new campaign started and there was no Grog and Vex. Critical Role discovered just how hard it is to *change* anything about your show (or game, hi diehard fans of any edition of D&D/PF) if your fanbase is emotional, nostalgic, invested and treats your stuff less as a hobby and more like therapy.
So now they're basically forced to do retro-content (animated series, one-shot) that focus on the beloved first campaign and if they put out something based on the "so-so, why couldn't you just continue Vox Machina for ever?" campaign they get flak for focusing their attention on something else than more Grog and Vex.
So when they get the Might Nein book out ... diehard Critters will be angry that it isn't yet another Vox Machina book.
Fans might be fun, but in some ways they are some of the worst *customers* out there.
RedRobe |
Steve Geddes wrote:Quark Blast wrote:More tie-ins like this will keep things on the current trajectory:
Wizards of the Coast Announces CRITICAL ROLE setting for D&D' --> Explorer's Guide to Wildemount
I'll be interested to see how this goes.
There's been a reasonable amount of complaints about this (my initial thought was that I'd skip it, but chances are I'll pick it up just to be complete).
Despite my personal ambivalence, I was expecting it to be met with much more positive press than it actually got.
Critical Role has a second season problem - their first campaign made them superstars, made people cosplay the hell out of characters, got all the loves and cuddly wuzzly feels.
And then it was over.
And a new campaign started and there was no Grog and Vex. Critical Role discovered just how hard it is to *change* anything about your show (or game, hi diehard fans of any edition of D&D/PF) if your fanbase is emotional, nostalgic, invested and treats your stuff less as a hobby and more like therapy.
So now they're basically forced to do retro-content (animated series, one-shot) that focus on the beloved first campaign and if they put out something based on the "so-so, why couldn't you just continue Vox Machina for ever?" campaign they get flak for focusing their attention on something else than more Grog and Vex.
So when they get the Might Nein book out ... diehard Critters will be angry that it isn't yet another Vox Machina book.
Fans might be fun, but in some ways they are some of the worst *customers* out there.
I enjoyed campaign one, but didn't come in until the Tarion Darrington arc. I have been with campaign two since the first episode, and can't wait for the Wildemount book!
Quark Blast |
Quark Blast wrote:More tie-ins like this will keep things on the current trajectory:
Wizards of the Coast Announces CRITICAL ROLE setting for D&D' --> Explorer's Guide to Wildemount
I'll be interested to see how this goes.
There's been a reasonable amount of complaints about this (my initial thought was that I'd skip it, but chances are I'll pick it up just to be complete).
Despite my personal ambivalence, I was expecting it to be met with much more positive press than it actually got.
I was a long and hard convert to Eberron (caveat: the now 5e game I play in is so heavily homebrewed that it may not be fair to say it's an Eberron campaign but whatevs) and was very happy with the 5e product put out for that. My cousin, who runs the campaign, says it's the best version yet - FWIW.
Looking at the stats for the Eberron book (e.g. Amazon says - 634 ratings, averaging 4.8 out of 5 stars; compared to PF2 CRB of 315 and 4.4) I can't even guess how Wildemount will come across. The promo chatter sounds good though.
Steve Geddes |
I can't even guess how Wildemount will come across. The promo chatter sounds good though.
You must be reading different chatter to me. My impression is that it’s announcement has been received pretty negatively.
I’ll be interested to see how it manifests in behaviour though. For me it’s a total miss and my thought was I’d skip it. However, I’m pretty confident now that I’m going to buy it expecting not to like it.
From WotC’s perspective, my behaviour is identical to a die hard critter.
No matter what people say, their buying behaviour is what actually matters to a company (witness high level modules, art books and the price of environmentally friendly packaging).
Steve Geddes |
2 people marked this as a favorite. |
I find the comparison of amazon ratings a pretty meaningless game.
I guess you could usefully compare a WotC Eberron book with a WotC Dark Suns book on that basis. But I suspect the rating given says just as much about ones relationship with the company as it does about the book (especially when it comes to flagship products like the CRB).
I also think there’s a “What do you think about Paizo stopping publishing PF1?” element that’s manifesting. Some who didn’t like PF1 are probably giving the CRB a higher mark than they would have in a vacuum. No doubt some who loved PF1 are not evaluating the CRB purely on its standalone merits.
Quark Blast |
Quark Blast wrote:I can't even guess how Wildemount will come across. The promo chatter sounds good though.You must be reading different chatter to me. My impression is that it’s announcement has been received pretty negatively.
I’ll be interested to see how it manifests in behaviour though. For me it’s a total miss and my thought was I’d skip it. However, I’m pretty confident now that I’m going to buy it expecting not to like it.
Yeah, the nay-sayers are often firstest and loudest. I was meaning "official" promo chatter, they were making it sound good but not in a disingenuous used car salesman way. I won't commit to buying it unseen but I'll take a good look at the "touch me" copy my FLGS will have for prospective buyers.
.
No matter what people say, their buying behaviour is what actually matters to a company (witness high level modules, art books and the price of environmentally friendly packaging).
Yes, human nature is funny like that. "Show me the money!!"
.
I find the comparison of amazon ratings a pretty meaningless game.
I guess you could usefully compare a WotC Eberron book with a WotC Dark Suns book on that basis. But I suspect the rating given says just as much about ones relationship with the company as it does about the book (especially when it comes to flagship products like the CRB).
I also think there’s a “What do you think about Paizo stopping publishing PF1?” element that’s manifesting. Some who didn’t like PF1 are probably giving the CRB a higher mark than they would have in a vacuum. No doubt some who loved PF1 are not evaluating the CRB purely on its standalone merits.
All true. I posted the numbers because someone else apparently likes them so much and in the case of the numbers I posted - we can see that a game supplement is "outselling" and "out-rating" the CRB from it's main competitor. I was going for irony... maybe I missed?
From the blogs I follow, and from questioning the one FLGS owner who's open to talking the business side of things with me, TTRPGs in general (including PF2 (or P2)) are benefiting from the hella rising tide created by the explosion of D&D 5e.
But also see this:
ANOTHER RECORD FOR TABLETOP GAMES ON KICKSTARTER
Successful tabletop game projects raised a new record amount on Kickstarter in 2019, $176.4 million, up 7% from the $165.3 million raised for the category on the crowdfunding platform in 2018, according to the annual report from ICO Partners.
And this:
Kickstarter and Games in 2019For a bunch of fun graphs and funding summaries that ICv2 used to write their article.
dirtypool |
(Four maybe? I don't keep track of the Star Wars stuff anymore).
FFG’s SW is still in its first edition.
It’s mildly concerning that FFG is taking the #5 spot in sales in the quarter just before they fired their entire RPG product team and halted dev on both their own IP (GeneSys) and their big license (Star Wars.)
Their CCG and Board Game lines seem to have been unaffected by the staff reduction.
dirtypool |
WW is dead?!
More or less, and has been for a while. CCP bought White Wolf in the mid 2000’s with the hopes of creating a V:tM MMO, eventually they strip mined the WW operation and fired the entire RPG dev team.
Rich Thomas created his own company Onyx Path and licensed a number of former WW titles from CCP and they continue to produce content to this day - though primarily for the NWoD (now Chronicles of Darkness) line.
A few years back Paradox press bought White Wolf from CCP and intended to jump start the OWoD line. They formed White Wolf as a small company inside Paradox, and there were a number of very visible and very terrible public relations snafus with alt right, fascist, and anti LGBTQ devs going out of their way to put their identity politics into the game. Ultimately Paradox had to let the White Wolf team go and handles the licensing of WW titles to other companies.
Modiphius handles some of it, Onyx Path (the spiritual successor) handles another huge chunk of it and some other companies are getting new licenses.
It’s basically an imprint now that licenses its IP to other developers
Marc Radle |
Marc Radle wrote:V:TM 5e ?Fifth edition of Vampire: The Masquerade from the smoking embers of a games company once known as White Wolf.
Ah, got it - thanks.
This is a good example of why people should avoid using needless abbreviations when writing - assuming everyone reading what you write will understand all of your abbreviations is a good way to alienate people and/or lead to unnecessary confusion ...
Stepping down from my soapbox now ...
Steve Geddes |
Steve Geddes wrote:(Four maybe? I don't keep track of the Star Wars stuff anymore).FFG’s SW is still in its first edition.
Well sure technically. But the way they bundle up each “sub genre” as it’s own thing is what I meant. I expect that gets them the same bang for their buck as a new edition.
dirtypool |
But the way they bundle up each “sub genre” as it’s own thing is what I meant. I expect that gets them the same bang for their buck as a new edition.
Are you talking about the distinction between the three core game: Edge of the Empire, Age of Rebellion and Force and Destiny?
Don't let the size of those recent releases fool you, they're just splatbooks, and this years releases were the setting splats for the rise of the empire era and an NPC codex.
I'd say the sales boost is more due to Rise of Skywalker than some hidden mystique in their splat release schema.
The truth is that as you cast your eye backward across ICv2 of years past: Star Wars consistently finds its way onto the list, whether it's FFG's version WotC's Saga or WotC's standard. If there were a reliable way to track all the way back to its release I suspect WEG'S Star Wars would also rather consistently rise toward the top. It's just one of the evergreens of the hobby.
Steve Geddes |
Steve Geddes wrote:But the way they bundle up each “sub genre” as it’s own thing is what I meant. I expect that gets them the same bang for their buck as a new edition.Are you talking about the distinction between the three core game: Edge of the Empire, Age of Rebellion and Force and Destiny?
Don't let the size of those recent releases fool you, they're just splatbooks, and this years releases were the setting splats for the rise of the empire era and an NPC codex.
I'm referring to that yes.
"Splatbook" or "Core Rulebook" is a relatively meaningless distinction in this context - for sales data it's about how things appear. I suspect that the way they break things up gives them a bigger fillip than if everything was identical with an ever expanding line of identically branded splatbooks/campaign sourcebooks/rulebooks.
Star Wars do well when they open up a new genre - whether it be "now you can be smugglers", "now you can be jedi" or "this is probably like the rogue one movie".
dirtypool |
"Splatbook" or "Core Rulebook" is a relatively meaningless distinction in this context - for sales data it's about how things appear.
Then by that rationale your own exercise in noting how many of the top five were core releases was also relatively meaningless because if a full price Star Wars book is enough to quality as a “core release” then so is a full price D&D book and thus all 5 of the top releases were core releases.
Star Wars do well when they open up a new genre - whether it be "now you can be smugglers", "now you can be jedi" or "this is probably like the rogue one movie".
Star Wars does well because gamers play Star Wars. A splatbook of expanded Jedi powers is no different than Ultimate Magic.
This tone of justifying the sales of their books on the basis of the way they “break things up” or speculating needless that non gamers are fueling the sales is just dismissive and insulting of a sales demographic that has been a large component of this hobby since 1987.
The game sold well because the game is good and people play it.
Quark Blast |
... The game sold well because the game is good and people play it.
That may be true but this is all relative. I do not know, nor have I ever known, anyone who plays the SW TTRPG and for over a year I was an active member in the college (non-PC/non-console) gaming club with several hundred members. Some of them almost certainly did play but there were no games organized for it in that group even with the SW movies in the theaters. And per Steve Geddes' comment, I actually do know people who buy SW paraphernalia and never use it. Seemingly it's a thing among a certain type of collector.
Orville Redenbacher |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
dirtypool wrote:Marc Radle wrote:V:TM 5e ?Fifth edition of Vampire: The Masquerade from the smoking embers of a games company once known as White Wolf.Ah, got it - thanks.
This is a good example of why people should avoid using needless abbreviations when writing - assuming everyone reading what you write will understand all of your abbreviations is a good way to alienate people and/or lead to unnecessary confusion ...
Stepping down from my soapbox now ...
You could google it and find out in seconds too!