I am thinking of replacing the Tiger Lord barbarian tribe with a tribe of hobgoblins. Mainly because I love hobgoblins and I think they should have a presence in Kingmaker.
What (if any) are the implications? Would such a change damage the plot much?
A large chunk of Blood for Blood revolves around the tomb of the Barbarian Leader - and Gorum - the CN Battle god. That section would need some re-writing (the implications and background at the very least) if you are worried about it making sense and being logical.
Otherwise, there would be a few small changes in War of the River Kings. But that is all I am aware of.
I changed them to Lizardfolk and didn't have much issue. The only problem I see is aligning the normally-LE Hobgoblins with a CN deity. If that's not an issue for you, or you can work the kinks out, go for it.
I'm sure that having a group of CN or CE hobgoblins isn't going to change Golarion much. After all, for the most part the alignments suggested in the bestiary are what is most common. Unless you are talking outsiders, feel free to surprise your PCs with enemies that go against the norm. These can provide more memorable foes if done on occasion.
(A chaotic neutral Lich plagued with insanity and forced to live forever by Urgathoa for eradicating one of her cults sounds like a cool foe in my opinion.)
Why are the hobgoblins chaotic?
Perhaps it's a holdover from the time of the original Armag. Usually hobgoblins are very disciplined and militaristic. What would cause an entire clan to break that norm for generations? I'm sure Ovinrrbane could answer that for you.
As far as future problems, the only one I see is with the Black Sisters. There is an underlying theme throughout the AP that hints at Gyronna having some type of play in the entire story. It's really up to you how you develop this. If you choose to play up Gyronna in your campaign, I would suggest leaving them as human. If you aren't involving her much, feel free to change them to hobgoblin.
Or heck, make them Changelings - or better yet, Changeling Hobgoblins (same or slightly altered stats, different appearance). Gyronna is the hag goddess after all.
All you have to do is match things up however you want them to match up and go with it. The adventure is just a structure that can be modified as you want. I considered doing the same things with Gnolls because I have an old soft spot for them as enemies from many years of gaming.
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In my campaign one of my PCs who had to leave the campaign for a while (female human barbarian) ended up becoming "Armag". So for me human barbarians were perfect.
Hobgoblins would work better as Mercs working for Drelev (replace his own soldiers with Hobgobs), perhaps the PCs might buy them out from under him.