Generally speaking I estimate an AP chapter will take your group 4, maybe 5, sessions to play each chapter - much longer if they get swamped in heavy roleplaying.
I don't think anybody has finished it yet. So I'm only going to give you the "generic answer":
Most book 1s take 4 sessions for a group of 4 players playing for 4 hours. However, there is *huge* variation between groups, and it is not unheard of to take 10 sessions to polish off a book 1.
Things that might make it go faster in this case:
- This book 1 is a little more streamlined than others (but not to an overwhelming extent)
Things that might make it go slower in this case:
- You have a large groupsize, and that makes combat somewhat slower, and the kibitzing time much slower
- You play only 3/4s as long as other groups
So, my *wild* guess is that it'll take you 6 or 7 sessions. Assume that you'll cancel one week for OOG reasons, and call it an even 2 months.
So my group this time will be semi large (6-7 players) I posted a craiglist add and got crazy response, I didnt want to turn anyone down due to the fact I'd really like to get PFS going in my area.
Our first session with 4 of the players present (some characters will be introduced later because players couldnt make the first session) got us to page 13 (decorated trees) but we have not completed the encounter, the players have seen what is there but havent "passed" the encounter yet.
That was a 3 hour session, we plan on making them 4 hour sessions from now on.
We are aiming to get done with the Lodge and rescuing Lady Argenta (and possibly up to the soul doll) by the end of session 2. Largely because that's where I plan in introducing the missing characters (as captives in the Lodge to be rescued)
If we go as planned our third session should end with the characters encountering the black rider.
Session 4 should get us into waldsby and either assaulting the pale tower or planning on it.
Session 5 (and possibly 6) to complete the book.
In ages past when we all stayed up later and played more than once a week, we would finish an AP book in 2 sessions or so. we finished Second Darkness in 3 months, but that seems like eons ago.
If we take an average of 5 sessions to finish a book, that's 30 weeks of gaming (make it 32 because there will be over flow) or 8 months.
give Or take some weeks.
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There are only two PFS APs right now: Rise of the Runelord Anniversary Edition and Shattered Star. It might be a while, if ever, before Reign of Winter gets chronicle sheets. They are waiting to see how many groups take advantage of current APs with chronicle sheets
When I mentioned that I was going to run The Snows of Summer as a home game, I was immediately asked to run it for PFS at my FLGS. I said sure assuming that the chronicle sheets would be out shortly. Apparently we were a bit overly optimistic. I know that the folks a Paizo don't have the resources to do everything for everyone, but I'd hope that they don't back away from PFS-izing APs quite so quickly.
The more combat encounters there are in an AP module, the longer it will take to complete. It's that simple. Nothing takes as long and advances as little as having a full combat encounter evening.