For context, the campaign backstory here involves the PCs being among the survivors of a small city that was literally decimated in the first session of the campaign; they've been fighting off various threats to the remainder of the town ever since. They're now 7th level: fighter, ranger, cleric, bard, and 2 monks.
Facing rumors of an even larger horde of humanoids gathering in the mountains and preparing for invasion, my party decided to ignore the series of large blinking neon signs saying, "Hey, go kill over here and kill the evil clerics leading the invasion," and instead try to take on the armies themselves. For example, the intel that the goblin horde and gnoll horde didn't get along, and would quickly fall on each other if not for the overlords failed to get the party to go cut off the head of the snake -- instead, it suggested to them that they could mop up each wing of the invaders in turn.
Obviously, they went after the gnolls first. When they recon'ed that encampment, I managed to deter them from frontal assault with a large enough number of gnolls, but they found a pretty decent workaround, considering their lack of conventional AoE spells.
They'd captured a hapless goblin earlier in the day, and decided bio-warfare was an acceptable means of preventing a second massacre of innocents. They used their usual approach to ethically questionable activities: the CG bard and cleric (both natives of the town and out for revenge) waited until the LN monks had trapped each other into an hours-long debate on the finer points of the laws of war, then went ahead and implemented their plan while the monks were distracted:
* Hood the goblin and spin him around while making lots of noise, so that he's too confused to notice when,
* The cleric slaps contagion on him, infecting him with bubonic plague before,
* The bard "rescues" the goblin, apologizes for his ill treatment, and uses suggestion to send him down the mountainside to raise the alarm in the gnoll camp. (Sure, the gnolls aren't friendly to the goblins, but the goblin camp is hours away, and he doesn't want the party to escape, right?)
The goblin trundles down to the gnoll camp, while the party hustles the other direction, and then asks how many gnolls will be killed by the disease.
As a first estimate:
* 35% of them will make their initial saves and suffer no effect (DC 17 vs gnolls' +4 Fort save -> 15% less than half are successful)
* Once contracted, Fort save bonus will decline by 1.25/day (average 2.5 Con damage). A gnoll that contracts the disease has a .35*.3 = 10.5% chance of getting better after 2 days.
* After this, the prognosis is increasingly grim, even if we're kind and use standard math rounding rather than always rounding down: Chance of getting better on day 3 is .3*.25 = 7.5%, day 4 is .25*.15 = 3.75%, day 5 is .15*.1 = 1.5%...
* Out of every 1,000 gnolls: 350 are unharmed; 68 recover after 2 days, with 5 Con damage; 44 recover after 3 days, with 7.5 Con dmg; 20 after 4 days, with 10 Con damage; 8 after 5 days, with 12.5 Con damage ... and the remaining 500 or so die of Con damage on day 6.
The hard part is figuring out how fast the disease spreads through the gnoll army after initial contact with Goblin Zero. Any good ideas?
Honestly? Their plan probably isn't going to work.
Unlike Pnuemonic plague, Bubonic plague isn't easily spread through contact. It's almost completely vector-borne, needing insect (flea) bites to pass from host to host. So long as the Gnolls either kick the Goblin out of their camp or kill him fairly quickly there's little chance of infection.
And in any case we're talking Gnolls here. You're more than justified in giving them bonuses to save vs. Bubonic plague given how common it is in their natural enviroment.
A better question is what are the PCs going to do when and if the plague starts hitting the city they're protecting? Germ warfare is the single most indiscriminate form of warfare after all.
Unlike Pnuemonic plague, Bubonic plague isn't easily spread through contact. It's almost completely vector-borne, needing insect (flea) bites to pass from host to host.
Sure, in reality. The rules apparently believe "flea bites" to be a form of "inhaled" vector, though, so I'm willing to treat this somewhat ahistorical, not-quite-bubonic plague as easier to spread.
A better question is what are the PCs going to do when and if the plague starts hitting the city they're protecting? Germ warfare is the single most indiscriminate form of warfare after all.
True facts. It was only after beating feet away from the scene that someone asked, "Well, wait. What if it doesn't spread fast enough and they attack the town while contagious?" Oops.
One of the monks declared that, well, at least the two of them were safe, purity of body and all. (Side note: 28 days later? Fast movement, brutal unarmed attacks? The plague in that movie didn't turn people into zombies -- it just killed off everybody who wasn't a 5th+ level monk.)
An obviously sick goblin trundling into a gnoll camp is going to get shot dead on sight. Bubonic plague has obvious signs of disease, including a black pallor. Since " the gnolls aren't friendly to the goblins" why would they think this is anything other than a trick by the goblins to infect them?
Even if the gnolls dont shoot him dead right away, they're going to notice the disease and isolate the goblin and the presumably infected gnolls.
But in answer to your question as to how fast its going to spread, I'd give it a week before they have contained it. After the first day, when several gnolls complain of feeling sick, the commanders are going to start taking countermeasures. Isolation, magical cures, resistance bonus magic, and the good old heal check is going to make a difference. While the gnolls may lack sufficient magic, they are going to have several 'medics' with good heal checks.
The disease won't spread unchecked.
The onset for Contagion is immediate. He takes the stat damage immediately, so the symptoms show immediately.
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I'd say that as soon as the goblins start taking the charisma, infection is obvious to anyone paying attention to it. At first that's people with healing or disease spells; soon after everyone else.
It's a much nastier disease than most, due to the high save DC. However, it's also a very risky plan;
* this might have alignment repercussions
* if anyone finds out this was done on purpose, that could cause some raised voices too; words like "war crime", "spreading plague" and so forth sound so un-nuanced.
However, the really nasty scenario is when the gnolls start launching infected goblins at the city with catapults...
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As for the disease itself, it looks pretty deadly, but assuming average con damage, it takes 5 days for a goblin to die, and maybe 6 for a gnoll. Of course exposure is enormous in an army camp (or a besieged city!), and food quality probably isn't all that.
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Also think about the fantasy side-effects of plague
* opportunistic necromancers
* ghoul feeding frenzy; ghoul proliferation
* occasional higher-grade undead spawned
* attracts the attention of outsiders interested in spreading or preventing the spread of diseases
As a useless? side note: When you kill the host, the parasites spread to new hosts. So killing the goblin when he wanders into camp will actually spread the disease faster. Fleas don't eat the dead... they jump onto the first warm body that passes after theirs goes cold.
That said, I would stack natural repercussions. The gnolls will likely figure out who was the Goblin Zero. The goblin is likely to have told the gnolls who beat the hell out of him, and where they were from. Putting two and two together, there will likely be bits of infected goblin in 85% of the towns wells on day 4 or 5.
I think the math looks fine.
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However, this doesn't take into account any form of treatment, but instead just a let it run free circumstance. A DC 17 Heal check would give a +4 to the save at 10 minutes a patient, even a simple level 1 expert could make that taking 10 with 1 rank + 3 skill focus(heal) + 3 class skill or take away skill focus and a level 2 healer with a healer's kit could make it. Any anti-plague would also reduce casualties by giving 2 rolls for that day.
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However, this doesn't take into account any form of treatment, but instead just a let it run free circumstance. A DC 17 Heal check would give a +4 to the save at 10 minutes a patient, even a simple level 1 expert could make that taking 10 with 1 rank + 3 skill focus(heal) + 3 class skill or take away skill focus and a level 2 healer with a healer's kit could make it. Any anti-plague would also reduce casualties by giving 2 rolls for that day.
But the victim wouldn't know they have it till symptoms hit - by then they are already spreading it to others and then they will think is it the flu or is it worse than the flu - so you wont get people going to the cleric for the flu - but they will inundate the clerics the instance they think of it as a Plague that has already killed many others.
So assume the plague Kills 0.1 percent of the populace - then there is a panic over something as simple as a headache. 20% Who think they have it but don't at the moment - and will catch it in the rush and crowds to get to a cure. 3% who don't think they have it but do. So go with 3% Killed every day after incubation period.
Have the Barmaid cough blood all over the PCs meal and drop dead in-front of them. Basically they can be happy that they took down the enemy with their unethical choice right up to the point when the Maid coughs all over them.
Knowing gnolls, they'd probably enslave the Goblin or eat it.
Either way they risk exposure to the disease and realized it too late.
Knowing gnolls, they'd probably enslave the Goblin or eat it.
I was going to say that. Chances are the gnolls will eat the goblin, and actually some of their early deads as well, before some of their smarter shamans figure out something is wrong. I think that would increase the spread of the disease quite a bit.
Also, if they succeed on the initial save, do they become completely immune to it? Or could they be infected by the second or third wave again? If they can, then it would probably kill the entire tribe.
Well it looks like you have two sides here, one that says the gnolls are too stupid or are too under prepared to deal with this plague and the other that says they would catch on soon enough and be able to counteract the disease so it wouldn't be detrimental to their ranks, which type of gnoll are you running in your game? Intelligence wise Are they not much different from the goblins or are they more advanced?
From what I see, the basic Gnoll in D&D and Pathfinder is assumed to be slightly dumber than a Human as well as brutal and savage.
The Pathfinder version of Gnolls are also highlighted as rather lazy, leaving their slaves to do any harder work they themselves could do.
Yes they have leaders, but by the time the leaders figure out something is wrong, their more stupid troops might have messed up too bad for them to effectively do anything about it.
This was also our party's first plan to deal with a large goblinoid encampment.
The druid was to sneak in beastshaped as a goblin dog and (with Natural Spell) cast bubonic plague 4 times on 4 different goblins, each day for a week. We presented a VERY conservative estimate on how fast it would spread to the GM. We supposed that each infected creature would infect one other creature each day that it was infected. We did NOT account for ones that actually made thier save at some point and were no longer affected, but then, only infecting one creature per day was VERY conservative on something as virulent as bubonic plague in a place as devoid of sanitation as a goblinoid encampment.
Pathfinder actually says that bubonic plague is transmitted through injury or through the air in game terms. I think our conservative estimates had almost 500 creatures infected inside a week, with most of them dead in 12 days.
Plague Spread Estimate:
Day 1 – 4 diseased, 4 infected = 8 total
Day 2 – 4 in 2nd day, 8 in 1st day, 12 infected = 24 total
Day 3 – 4 in 3rd day, 8 in 2nd day, 16 in 1st day, 28 infected = 52 total
Day 4 – 4 in 4th, 8 in 3rd, 12 in 2nd, 32 in 1st, 56 infected = 112 total
Day 5 – 4 in 5th, 8 in 4th, 12 in 3rd, 32 in 2nd, 60 in 1st, 116 infected = 232 total
Day 6 – 4 dead, 8 in 5th, 12 in 4th, 32 in 3rd, 60 in 2nd, 120 in 1st, 236 infected = 472 total (entire camp ?)
Day 7 – 12 dead, 12 in 5th, 32 in 4th, 60 in 3rd, 120 in 2nd, 236 in 1st
Day 8 – 24 dead, 32 in 5th, 60 in 4th, 120 in 3rd, 236 in 2nd
Day 9 – 56 dead, 60 in 5th, 120 in 4th, 236 in 3rd
Day 10 – 116 dead, 120 in 5th, 236 in 4th
Day 11 – 236 dead, 236 in 5th
Day 12 – 472 dead
Obviously, some will make thier saves, but mopping up the weakened survivors, should be relatively easy.
Ultimately, we decided NOT to go this route as it would have resulted in the GM declaring an alignment switch for the druid (revealed through a divination) rendering her an ex-druid.
Instead, we rolled 7 cloudkill spells through thier encampment from different angles (cast from scrolls wielded by invisible, flying NPC wizards) and mopped up the rest with medieval fuel-air bombs (400 lb sacks of flour, affected by Shrink Item and attached to a fused grenade) dropped from above by an air elemental and flying eidolon.
Magical disease = Evil, magical poison cloud = not EvilIt's weird to me that the plague plan is evil enough to force an alignment change, but using fuel-air bombs and magical poison clouds isn't. I guess that's fantasy gaming for you.
I like the plague plan, and I don't consider it evil enough to make a neutral character evil, or even a good character neutral. They are facing a force that far outnumbers their own and the very survival of their community is at stake.
Believe it or not, it was NOT a Good/Evil alignment shift. The Druid is NG and the DM said that she would shift on the Law/Chaos axis for tampering with the natural order by willfully engaging in biological warfare.
She was actually willing to take a shift from NG to TN, but from NG to CG would cause her to lose all her druid abilities. We had actually EXPECTED a shift to TN because the Contagion spell is specifically listed as evil. We had even searched out a sufficiently high level Druid to cast Atonement on her afterward.
You are right, the very survival of the community, the surrounding countryside and (if you want to stretch it a bit) the whole plane of existance was at stake. (The goblinoids were being controlled by Formian who were pouring through a planar rift and establishing beachhead colonies and had enslaved everyone they encountered). Our druid felt that she would do what she had to to save everything, even if it meant opposing her diety. We talked her out of it and came up with the alternative plan instead, only using her to scout the encampment as a goblin dog.
It's weird to me that the plague plan is evil enough to force an alignment change, but using fuel-air bombs and magical poison clouds isn't. I guess that's fantasy gaming for you.
True facts.
I like the plague plan, and I don't consider it evil enough to make a neutral character evil, or even a good character neutral. They are facing a force that far outnumbers their own and the very survival of their community is at stake.
Yeah, no, I'm not considering alignment changes here--as mentioned, the campaign kicked off with a massive invasion of the town during the high festival, slaughtering most of the population and hauling off others for sacrifice. (And, of course, subsequent use of animate dead: the party had several encounters at early levels with undead versions of their former townsfolk.)
They've been fighting on various fronts of this war ever since, and in the current situation I took pains to emphasize that they couldn't just dig in the town and hope to weather the assault, but were facing a large enough threat that the town would be rolled over if they didn't go out and do something about it.
So, facing a superior force of demonstratedly merciless marauders and fighting for the survival of their home, I'm willing to let a little germ warfare ride for the CGs among them, and I'm happy to let their strategy work at least to an extent.
All of the suggestions here on how they might not like what happens next are good, though -- I think there's plenty of opportunity for "unintended consequences" to deter them from making a habit of bioweapons, rather than just knocking their alignments.
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However, this doesn't take into account any form of treatment, but instead just a let it run free circumstance. A DC 17 Heal check would give a +4 to the save at 10 minutes a patient, even a simple level 1 expert could make that taking 10 with 1 rank + 3 skill focus(heal) + 3 class skill or take away skill focus and a level 2 healer with a healer's kit could make it. Any anti-plague would also reduce casualties by giving 2 rolls for that day.But the victim wouldn't know they have it till symptoms hit - by then they are already spreading it to others and then they will think is it the flu or is it worse than the flu - so you wont get people going to the cleric for the flu - but they will inundate the clerics the instance they think of it as a Plague that has already killed many others.
So assume the plague Kills 0.1 percent of the populace - then there is a panic over something as simple as a headache. 20% Who think they have it but don't at the moment - and will catch it in the rush and crowds to get to a cure. 3% who don't think they have it but do. So go with 3% Killed every day after incubation period.
Have the Barmaid cough blood all over the PCs meal and drop dead in-front of them. Basically they can be happy that they took down the enemy with their unethical choice right up to the point when the Maid coughs all over them.
Yellowdingo has hit upon what is important for epidemic disease. It is not form of transmition so much as incubation period. Some of the deadliest plagues were not airborn but spread by close contact or insect. Plague and small pox are examples. What is important is that the incubation period is long enough for the disease to be spread by carriers before they become obviously sick but short enough for most victims to die before treatment is effective. Historically this period is in the range of 1 week. Thus an infected carrier can walk to the next town, spread the sickness, and sometimes even leave before becoming obviously sick. You also have to take into account that humans care for each other. Families don't generally just abandon each other, priests tend the sick, friends offer help, etc. This often has the effect of spreading the disease even further.
There is a formula that the CDC and FEMA use for the estimation of potential spread of contagen which takes into account vectors and population density as well as other factors.
Im not sure where to find it though.
Magical disease = Evil, magical poison cloud = not EvilIt's weird to me that the plague plan is evil enough to force an alignment change, but using fuel-air bombs and magical poison clouds isn't. I guess that's fantasy gaming for you.
I like the plague plan, and I don't consider it evil enough to make a neutral character evil, or even a good character neutral. They are facing a force that far outnumbers their own and the very survival of their community is at stake.
Fuel Air -> you know who will die. Sure, some innocent slaves may perish, but none the less you know the extent and end of the damage/havoc.
Plague -> You know where it will start, but have no clue as to after effects. What if an animal acts as a carrier to bring it to a neighboring town? What if the Gnolls raid on day 2, and spread the plague all over the city you are attempting to preserve? What ifs abound. One is killing a population you have deemed to warrant the punishment you are about to deal. The other kills indiscriminately and has potential to spread far beyond the target population.
So, one is evil simply because you are committing mass slaughter of a population (just like the bombs), AND (unlike the bombs) deliberately ignoring the reasonably foreseeable damage caused by releasing an uncontrollable contagion into the neighborhood . . . right next door to the population you are "trying to save." You have no clue as the the end point of the damage and havoc you unleash.
