Data analysis of firearms Touch AC attack

[Mok]

One thing that has been making me itch is that the issue of firearms hitting on touch AC isn't a very clear factor in the game. People react to the approach in lots of different ways, but I figured I'd just try and figure out what it really means in terms of the math underlying Pathfinder.

So how good is the touch AC mechanic for firearms in Pathfinder?

To find out I went over to d20pfsrd.org, downloaded the csv file for the Bestiary. This contains all of the data for the monster published between the Bestiary I and II, and likely some of the other creatures found in other Pathfinder sources.

I think sorted out the AC and Touch AC of all 414 creatures listed in the database. Then I calculated the differential between the regular AC and the Touch AC.

Then I sorted this data by CR value, afterwards averaging out the differential based on CR. Out pops these results:

Spoiler:

CR = Differential Bonus
0.13 = +0
0.16 = +0
0.25 = +0.6
0.33 = +2.08
0.5 = +1.53
1 = +2.3
2 = +3.34
3 = +3.84
4 = +4.55
5 = +6.06
6 = +7.48
7 = +7.34
8 = +9.24
9 = +11.43
10 = +11.14
11 = +13.35
12 = +17.36
13 = +17.89
14 = +17.67
15 = +17.75
16 = +23.4
17 = +25.83
18 = +29
19 = +28
20 = +24

There is a quick and obvious pattern that emerged. The differential, that is the benefit that firearms gain to hit at touch AC, increases as you go up in CR difficulty. At the very high levels you start to see a huge benefit in trying to hit Touch AC with firearms at higher levels.

Thoughts on these numbers:

One caveat, this is just the data from the Bestiaries. They have value at giving a benchmark on how touch AC progresses through the system as a whole. In any specific campaign, the real averages will come from what the GM actually decides to use. If you have a campaign that heavily involves a lot of NPCs and mooks covered in armor, then at the lower levels these averages will be slightly higher.

Another caveat with the numbers is that the sample size for each CR is healthy (10 or more values) from CR 1/3 up till 12. Above and below those values the number of creatures diminishes, though if you are just playing out of the books, then there are still the averages that are produced from the game.

Gunslinger

In terms of the current Gunslinger (playtest 1) what can be noted is that, due to the “feat starving” of the current rules and the likelyhood that Pointblank and Precise Shot feats aren't feasible to get a low levels, that it won't be until level 3 or 4 that the Touch AC differential benefit actually starts to compensate for the lack of Precise Shot. Likewise, it will only be around level 7 or 8 when firearms start to really compensate for the penalties for firing into melee and the inevitable cover penalties that happen when a party mixes it up with opponents.

However, one benefit from the Gunslinger is that due to the fact that he can't really perform full attacks with the currently available firearms in any meaningful way, that does mean the possibility of having more flexibility in maneuver into a position where he can avoid cover penalties.

What's really needed is a way for the Gunslinger to have some class abilities baked in that will let it yield real benefit from the Touch AC effect, meaning at least having easy and quick access to Precise Shot. This is important, because if you are going to have the overall difference between firearms and bows, one being able to hit much more easily, but have a low rate of fire, and the other having a more typical chance of hitting but a high rate of fire, then the difference between the those two approaches needs to be more pronounced.

Really Big Creatures

Another factor to take into consideration is that at very high levels, when you can yield massive benefits with firearms, also means that you are fighting creatures that are often of such a size that you could easily be provoking attacks of opportunity simply to fire the gun. True, there are feats and likely deeds that can compensate for this, however these are basically more “taxes” just to be able to fix the problems of firearms.

[Gnomebitten]

So the touch AC mechanic has some use at higher levels, meaning you have a pretty good shot at hitting the Terrasque when you fire at it. Even then you get one shot relying basically entirely on magic to add to the damage, whereas the Ranger with the bow has Deadly Aim cranked up all the way and has fired four shots and if even two of them hit, he's done more damage than you. Plus he's far enough away where he's likely for sure not going to get AoO'd in the face.

Honestly, the biggest disability for the Gunslinger as he stands right now is how guns have been handled. I only managed to try the playtest in two sessions and likely won't be able to test more, but I tried the given guns in one session and the guns from the campaign setting in another. It was a level 5-6 game and even with the touch AC axed, I found myself in a better position with a pistol with better range and that feats could apply to.

[Realmwalker]

And if this such a big factor why does the Gunslinger fall so far behind in damage?

Yes he hits more often, but fighters hit with more attacks total.

[Heretek]

Realmwalker wrote:

And if this such a big factor why does the Gunslinger fall so far behind in damage?

Yes he hits more often, but fighters hit with more attacks total.

Based on Yuenglings gunslinger test of lvl 11, the damage skyrockets from previous levels once they hit 11 and choose to signature lightning reload. Is it as much as the Fighter Archer? Nope, but due to the touch they will hit more often, and generally touch ac decreases as CR increases.

[Mok]

I realized that I did not get the full sample of monsters from the online database, so I went back and gathered everything together, it's over 800 monsters strong, and recalculated the differential bonus that touch AC from firearms gives, on average, at CR.

Spoiler:

CR = Differential
0.12 = +0
0.16 = +0
0.25 = +0.83
0.33 = +1.75
0.5 = +1.56
1 = +2.03
2 = +2.77
3 = +3.68
4 = +4.73
5 = +6.12
6 = +7.06
7 = +7.11
8 = +9.16
9 = +10.83
10 = +12.07
11 = +12.19
12 = +15.67
13 = +14.29
14 = +16.79
15 = +17.71
16 = +20.38
17 = +22.62
18 = +25.3
19 = +25.33
20 = +22.5

[Zurai]

Honestly, the touch AC bonus is pretty much irrelevant unless and until you've got Signature Deed: Lightning Reload. You're a Fighter; you're going to be hitting on your first attack the vast majority of the time even against full AC.