Likely going to be in only light/medium armour until at least 7th or 8th level. So do I up my missile att/AC by 1 at the cost to needing to spend my level 4 stat inc. to get to 18 str or do I go straight to 18 from level 1?
Personally...I would go 14 DEX
You need the DEX to build off a lot of good feats, which I am sure you know. Waiting around to build on them would be a pain for me. All IMO of course.
I like taking the 17 route. Admittedly, a lot of this is optimising: those points needed to go from 17 to 18 can be better spent elsewhere.
It also makes for a nice power bump when you hit fourth. I'll even put the second most important attribute at an odd number for the power jump at 8th as well.
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If you are NOT planning to use a two-handed weapon, then I would go with a 17. And if you are going to have to play through the intermediate levels, I would seriously consider a 16 with bumps at levels 4 and 8.
If you are using a two handed weapon, an 18 is one additional point of damage every time you hit, but I would probably start with a 17 anyway.