This really doesn't matter. Obviously, distributors and retail stores expect it to be a big seller, but until consumers actually buy all of the copies, it remains to be seen how well it sells.
#4 on the Amazon charts = It's selling just a weeeeeeeeee bit well.
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While that is a very important number, the real goal is to sell out on the post initial books, ie, later cores, supplements, modules. Many people want to see what the rules are, and the initial three are always the best sellers. The real question is how many people will then proceed to use them and purchase further from WoTC. If that return is an unacceptable amount (which could still be a hug profit, just not enough of one) then it could be sticky.
Fun times...
Amazon is showing it at number 2.
How does a product sell out before it's officially released?
Who knows what it means. I suppose it might refer to the distributor's supply.
Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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It would be interesting if someone could find a figure for this first print run in terms of numbers printed? I'm wondering if they were conservative in their estimates as to what they might sell- despite the fact that they've spent the last year talking about how confident they are that it is an amazing game which huge numbers of people would want to buy?
I'm guessing conservative. They've said more than the initial print run of 3.5E, not 3.0E - and 3.5E by all accounts was a slower seller than 3.0E (stands to reason, not as much urgency to get it right away).
It would be interesting if someone could find a figure for this first print run in terms of numbers printed? I'm wondering if they were conservative in their estimates as to what they might sell- despite the fact that they've spent the last year talking about how confident they are that it is an amazing game which huge numbers of people would want to buy?I'm guessing conservative. They've said more than the initial print run of 3.5E, not 3.0E - and 3.5E by all accounts was a slower seller than 3.0E (stands to reason, not as much urgency to get it right away).
My impression was that the 3.0 initial print run was actually pretty conservative itself. There was a large back lash that now that the Evil WotC had gotten hold of the game they were going to create a Collectable Card Game and on top of the backlash from the die hard fans sales in the latter part of 2nd edition had been anemic. The consensus was that no one was actually playing D&D.
In retrospect we know that the game was a phenomenal success and that the new version was going to go on to sell like hot cakes bring legions of old fans that had dropped the game back into the fold and even converting some new fans but nobody new that prior to release. There was a lot of concern that 3rd might actually bomb with weak sales while the die hards ranted and raved that they'd turned the game into a cross between a collectible card game and a friggen board game.
I'm guessing conservative. They've said more than the initial print run of 3.5E, not 3.0E - and 3.5E by all accounts was a slower seller than 3.0E (stands to reason, not as much urgency to get it right away).
The fallacy here is that 3.5e sold as well as 3e. The initial print run for 3.5e was larger than 3e. The initial 4e print run (as quoted by mearls) was 50% larger than the 3.5e print run, so I'd say that the 4e print run is pretty ambitious.
Sometimes I wonder if this is part of the publicity. Think of it:
Perhaps they underprinted the amount of anticipated copies, that way they make 4e look like a hot commodity - there is hype, articles, etc.
A print version of the books mysteriously appears online. There's more hype, articles in Forbes about popular items being harder to control, etc. Forbes even says this may *help* sales rather than hinder it.
No idea if WotC meant it. I just know that these two items alone have been creating a huge stir and all kind of talk all over the internet.
Contributor
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Well, they've said that they had a bigger initial print run than 3.5 and that 3.5 had a bigger initial print run than 3.0, and that 4E sold through faster than either.Unless they are outright lying (which I doubt) then it's pretty hard to deny that their sales are good.
And the book set is the overall #2 bestseller on Amazon. That's frankly amazing.
As to whether it was them that released the pdfs online... I'm dubious, but it's possible, and I personally believe it will increase their sales. But I've heard that they have hit a few places that had the pdfs with cease and desist orders, and that the pdfs became unavailable on those sites. Could be just a cover up of sorts, but WotC has always been very protective of their pdf products so it seems odd.
I have to say that I am personally shocked that sales are this high. I don't know what it means in the long haul, but it's certainly a better sign for WotC than if sales were low.
EDIT: Just went back to Amazon... make that #1 bestseller on Amazon.ca, and #3 on Amazon.com.
Let's not fool ourselves into thinking Hasbro doesn't know how to play the market.
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I have to say that I am personally shocked that sales are this high. I don't know what it means in the long haul, but it's certainly a better sign for WotC than if sales were low.
Back to the good ol' saying: any press is good press. Even if what everyone says is bad about a product (and that's not the case here, just taking it to the extreme) people will then want to get it just to see for themselves how terrible it is. On the flipside of that, really good reviews will bring people in who wouldn't otherwise have bothered because it has piqued their interest. So whether the opinions are good or bad, it's going to bring people to the point of buying the product just to make up their own minds. The killer is if there doesn't seem to be any interest at all ahead of the release... so all the fevered arguments probably helped boost the popularity of the initial sales. :) And I recall from months ago that there was a significant group who were planning to buy the books even though they never planned on playing 4e - because they were "collectors" or just to support the company.
It's good for them and for the industry. Those who do like it will have a strong company to back the product, and some of those who don't will be encouraged enough by the strength of the industry to look around for something they would like.
The real test, of course, will be how well sales continue. It's a well-known fact that core books are the biggest sellers (and have been in the past and are now and will be in the future a business reason for changing editions). The real indication of how well the system is being used will be the sales of other things that go along with it.
From ENworld:
Awesome! I've pre-ordered pretty much everything that's available so far and I'm happy to see that it's doing so well. I'm playing <b>Keep on the Shadowfell</b> currently and I already like it (4E) way much better than 3.5. There's no way I would even consider Pathfinder RPG.
How does a product sell out before it's officially released?I don't know, but I just got an email from Amazon saying they're sorry, but my preorder of the core set will be shipping later than anticipated: 20 August!
They are probably shipping them in the order they were pre-ordered. You might have pre-ordered late enough to get stuck with the 2nd print run :(
It's selling fast!
lol
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How does a product sell out before it's officially released?WotC has sold the books. Retailers have paid for them. It doe not matter if they are not yet on store shelves because WotC has been paid.
Right. WotC doesn't sell directly. Books aren't actually printed each week or something. An initial print run is done to meet anticipated need. This just means that the distributors bought up the supply and they're doing another run.
You may have trouble picking it up for a bit if your FLGS sells out.
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How does a product sell out before it's officially released?I don't know, but I just got an email from Amazon saying they're sorry, but my preorder of the core set will be shipping later than anticipated: 20 August!They are probably shipping them in the order they were pre-ordered. You might have pre-ordered late enough to get stuck with the 2nd print run :(
It's selling fast!
I preordered back on 22 February back when the price was $54.83
...wait...
In looking up my account to see when I preordered the set I just realized I read the email too fast. My core set is scheduled to arrive by Tuesday, 10 June; I also ordered another book, in the same order, whose original publication date has slipped to August.
OK, I'm a dork.
How does a product sell out before it's officially released?WotC has sold the books. Retailers have paid for them. It doe not matter if they are not yet on store shelves because WotC has been paid.
Not necessarily. (Although I hope so.) Retailers have 90 days to pay publishers for books AND can usually return them in that amount of time, sticking the publisher with the loss. In fact, many brick and mortar stores (B&N, Borders, etc.) will wait 90 days to pay the publisher, return the books before the 90 period is up, and then RE-order the same books and not pay for those for up to 90 days. Authors have been complaining about this for awhile now. If the publisher doesn't get paid for 6 months, neither does the author! It's all fun-and-games when you're trying to keep up with Amazon these days.
Not necessarily. (Although I hope so.) Retailers have 90 days to pay publishers for books AND can usually return them in that amount of time, sticking the publisher with the loss. In fact, many brick and mortar stores (B&N, Borders, etc.) will wait 90 days to pay the publisher, return the books before the 90 period is up, and then RE-order the same books and not pay for those for up to 90 days. Authors have been complaining about this for awhile now. If the publisher doesn't get paid for 6 months, neither does the author! It's all fun-and-games when you're trying to keep up with Amazon these days.How does a product sell out before it's officially released?WotC has sold the books. Retailers have paid for them. It doe not matter if they are not yet on store shelves because WotC has been paid.
Thats not really like what my account contract with the various publishers is like. Certainly not the one I have with Random House (who is the distributor for WotCs books in these parts - though I personally use Lion Rampant instead). I can't return a shipment for at least 90 days without getting a special exemption due to their being some kind of mistake. After that you usually have the book for 1 year and can then return it - though Random House is particularly liberal in this regard. They allow you to return the book no matter how long you have had within the life of the edition.
You usually have to pay within 30 days of the purchase - but nobody ever does**. They start really crying about getting their money after 90 days. At that point they might put your orders on hold until you start coughing up some money.
** Big companies might be better in this regard. For a small retailer like a book store holding off on paying for as long as possible helps with cashflow and there is nothing more critical to a little bookstore then having positive cashflow. When your flat broke things start falling apart in a hurry (can't make rent, can't pay salaries) so delaying payment for as long as possible actually makes economic sense - your using sales of the books you ordered to pay the publishers invoice.
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Thats not really like what my account contract with the various publishers is like.
He was definitely referring to the big book stores with more clout than they should really have who have quite decimated the publishers for the past 10 years or more. Someone like a Borders (or, in Canada, Chapters/Indigo) will order umpteen thousand copies of a book, throw up their gigantic displays of a few hundred on a pyramid shelf, sell them for 30% off, then whatever doesn't sell before their 90 days (or whatever) is up they ship back. This means that the price for the smaller guys goes up and that they have reasonable contracts (ie. net 30) because they're covering for the megastores who aren't paying for the books that are sitting on their shelves. When you're a publisher, and you have the big boys telling you this is how you will do business... well, you don't often have a lot of choice.
(I guess the big stores operate under the same principle as you mentioned, though, about having the sales of the book pay for the order - it's just that they order 10x what they actually need, generally, so they can put together those displays of excess and with the full security of knowing they're shipping back whatever doesn't sell without ever having to pay for it.)
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...(I guess the big stores operate under the same principle as you mentioned, though, about having the sales of the book pay for the order - it's just that they order 10x what they actually need, generally, so they can put together those displays of excess and with the full security of knowing they're shipping back whatever doesn't sell without ever having to pay for it.)
So how do they make money?-- the major publishing houses, I mean. And how do the writers make money? SK is a millionaire and yet every book he writes (The HC version) is on the remaindered racks six months after the paperback debuts. Either it cocts a lot less to print books than I think, or...I don't know. How do they make enough money to keep going?
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I'm not a fan of 4th Edition. Neither the "crunch" nor "flavor" of the rules support the type of play I enjoy. The sales strategy involved in the game design (ie new core rules every year requiring a certain lack of completion in the first set of core rules) turns me off. I don't like some of the things that the designers have said about 3rd edition, nor the implications about its fans. I vehemently dislike disparaging attitudes displayed on message boards by fans of both editions about their "opposites".
D&D 4th edition seems to be a game that is going to appeal to a wide player base. If they can adopt better modes of marketing for the planned "gain new customers" mass marketing in 2009, more power to them- and, to the hobby in general.
I hope that 4th Edition is a huge success. I hope that the online content improves greatly by Friday. I really hope that the sales results encourages Hasbro to keep the brand and continue to put its considerable resources behind its marketing and developing.
I also hope that the Pathfinder RPG from Paizo Publishing garners the kind of success that Paizo, as a consumer friendly, communicative, and talented company deserves. I plan on supporting them as they have chosen to support a version of D&D that my gaming group and I enjoy much more than 4th edition.
So, here's to you, 4th Edition. May your sales be HUGE, may you attract new customers, and may both old and new customers gain years and years of enjoyment out of playing you. Congratulations on the sell-through of the first run, WOTC.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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Well, they've said that they had a bigger initial print run than 3.5 and that 3.5 had a bigger initial print run than 3.0, and that 4E sold through faster than either.Unless they are outright lying (which I doubt) then it's pretty hard to deny that their sales are good.
Where have they said that 3.5 had a bigger run that 3.0E? I'd be surprised if this was the case, especially the initial print run (which is what they are talking about). I've seen some people posting it, but I imagine if it were so the marketingspeak for 4th would have trumpeted that too.
Edit: actually, over the life of the product I wouldn't be surprised, so it is just that first run I'm curious about.
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I'm not a fan of 4th Edition. Neither the "crunch" nor "flavor" of the rules support the type of play I enjoy. The sales strategy involved in the game design (ie new core rules every year requiring a certain lack of completion in the first set of core rules) turns me off. I don't like some of the things that the designers have said about 3rd edition, nor the implications about its fans. I vehemently dislike disparaging attitudes displayed on message boards by fans of both editions about their "opposites".
D&D 4th edition seems to be a game that is going to appeal to a wide player base. If they can adopt better modes of marketing for the planned "gain new customers" mass marketing in 2009, more power to them- and, to the hobby in general.
I hope that 4th Edition is a huge success. I hope that the online content improves greatly by Friday. I really hope that the sales results encourages Hasbro to keep the brand and continue to put its considerable resources behind its marketing and developing.
I also hope that the Pathfinder RPG from Paizo Publishing garners the kind of success that Paizo, as a consumer friendly, communicative, and talented company deserves. I plan on supporting them as they have chosen to support a version of D&D that my gaming group and I enjoy much more than 4th edition.
So, here's to you, 4th Edition. May your sales be HUGE, may you attract new customers, and may both old and new customers gain years and years of enjoyment out of playing you. Congratulations on the sell-through of the first run, WOTC.
WORD
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Well, we can no longer argue that the sellout is entirely just retailers purchasing the full print run and then it languishing on shelves. Both Amazon.com and Buy.com list the core set as Out of Stock this morning, with Amazon estimating July 2 for their next restock.
Remains to be seen how well the FLGS copies sell, but I'd expect those to sell a little slower, since Amazon and Buy were charging like 55% MSRP.
I also hope that the Pathfinder RPG from Paizo Publishing garners the kind of success that Paizo, as a consumer friendly, communicative, and talented company deserves. I plan on supporting them as they have chosen to support a version of D&D that my gaming group and I enjoy much more than 4th edition.
Great post overall, but I wanted to touch on this aspect.
I don't think people realize how huge WotC's impact on the industry in general is. If 4th Edition is successful, this allows smaller companies like Paizo to have a larger potential fanbase. If a new 4th Edition player stumbles upon Pathfinder and happens to like it more, that's a bonus for Paizo.
Wow. The gift set sold out on Amazon until next month is pretty big.
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Contributor
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Well, they've said that they had a bigger initial print run than 3.5 and that 3.5 had a bigger initial print run than 3.0, and that 4E sold through faster than either.Unless they are outright lying (which I doubt) then it's pretty hard to deny that their sales are good.Where have they said that 3.5 had a bigger run that 3.0E? I'd be surprised if this was the case, especially the initial print run (which is what they are talking about). I've seen some people posting it, but I imagine if it were so the marketingspeak for 4th would have trumpeted that too.
Edit: actually, over the life of the product I wouldn't be surprised, so it is just that first run I'm curious about.
Sorry I missed this earlier.
Mike Mearls said it in his blog, which was linked to from ENWorld.
EDIT: Although looking at it now, Mearls doesn't specifically say initial print run, but that seems to be what he's talking about.