Over on EN World Clark Peterson from Necromancer Games made an interesting comment:
"And I hate the idea of our player base being fragmented, because that means the game gets fragmented and who is kidding who table top roleplaying--while it will always be my favorite--runs the risk of going the way of the dodo bird. As goes the industry leader, so goes the industry. I dont even want to imagine what would happen to table top roleplaying if 4E fails to dig in and get traction. "
If 4E is unsuccessful, to what extent do you think it will hurt the 'industry'? How will it impact your FLGS? Your favorite game publishers? Your table?
Well most of the FLGS in my area could care less about rpgs. The DD minis they'd miss but not much else. Rpg's just dont have the cash draw as cards and mini games. Could be because cards and minis are played there vs at home.
My table might have a tough time if groups like paizo go down. However, Im not jumping to 4e quick so my Ptolus and Iron Kingdoms campaigns would be fine. I imagine Star Wars wont need much more. Havent tried Eberron. So theres plenty to do with older rules. My table might cost less since theres less to buy.
|
Takasi,
With more than six months to the official launch, its a bit premature to be predicting anything. As an oldschool player (started in 82), some of the things being done with 4th edition make me twinge, but the same I could have said about 3rd edition before it came out. I don't know if I'll make the transition (I'm happy with 3.5 as is) but Wizards does not seem to be going for my age cohort at all anyway, rather the younger crowd, which is what they need to do to have a future for the game.
As for fallout, an edition failure (something I'm certainly not anticipating) would be very bad for the D20 tabletop sector and bad for overall tabletop roleplaying sector as well. Wizards, for better or for worse, is the 800 pound gorilla of those segments, and as Wizards goes, so goes the market.
Notice, though, how specific my verbiage is--roleplaying is for more than just the tabletop sector nowadays. Console and online roleplaying would not be effected at all (no insult meant to DDO players, but most folks online play Warcraft, EQ, Guildwars, LoTR and other non WOTC mmorgs). And tcg's/ccgs (which have some crossover with fantasy rpgs--take the backstory of MTG for instance) would likely not be that effected either.
I'm not sure if a new big player would emerge in the tabletop sector, with so many things pulling at rpg players attentions nowadays, whatever it was would have to have something special going for it (but if anyone could do it, I'm sure Paizo, Necro, Malhavoc (if Monte decided to take a stab at rpgs again), or Goodman could).
Most of the surviving D20 companies would probably try and capture as many existing players and bring in new ones as they could with new product and/or new rule systems, shift to other sectors (such as boardgames or tcg's/ccg's), or go out of business (I'd hope they try the first two before the third ;)
FLGS's would be negatively effected, but not as bad as one would think. For a variety of reasons (I leave it to those more familiar with the workings of the FLGS sector to comment on this) the number of primary rpg stores has been declining for the last several years (there's several threads about it on rpg.net--there were 2000-3000 in the late 90's down to about 1000 now, maybe less). Many of them have either gone out of business or changed their product emphasis from rpgs to sportscards, tcg's/ccg's, comics, and/or boardgames. An edition failure would likely accelerate the trend and decrease the amount of shelf space devoted to pen and paper rpgs.
As for my table, there would be little effect, at first. I have all the books I can use (and then some) from 3.5 and enough adventures and adventure seeds to run games for years. The real negative effect would be in the future, with the diminishment of the number of younger folks potentially interested in playing tabletop rpgs. Without a D&D to draw them in, their interests and hobbies will likely go in other directions.
IMHO, d&d will always be a niche market.
Burning dedicated and somewhat-guaranteed fans on the "Possibility" of getting a ton of new fans isnt going to help at all. Its kind of like trading one fanbase for another.
If 4E tanks, theyll have burned long time fans and will not have gotten many new ones. This could be trouble indeed for the future of D&D.
Worse case scenario, D&D will die for awhile (stock up on 3E stuff) until Hasbro sells the rights off to someone more capable (we hope).
Here's what they told me in Costa Rica:
"The big tree falls, and the little trees can reach for the sun."
I love that! :) Kudos to Costa Rica
Here's what they told me in Costa Rica:
"The big tree falls, and the little trees can reach for the sun."
Actually, Heathy, the neighboring big trees move in to fill the hole in the canopy. The little trees get a growth spurt at best. And some of them don't move at all, 'cause they're happy as little trees.
~I wonder who the other big trees might be . . . .~
|
Here's what they told me in Costa Rica:
"The big tree falls, and the little trees can reach for the sun."
Pretty much.
I know this is unkind, but I sincerely hope 4e fails so bad that WotC has to come back and beg for our business. There has been absolutely nothing in the released information or the marketing that makes even remotely interested in 4e or the future viability of the game. Then again I am not their demographic...
Dont get me wrong, I do not wish ill of any person. But the game is played by people...what about us?
I know it wont go down like that so don't bother to flame me.
The likelihood that 4E will "flop" is small; the powers of brand loyalty and name recognition are both very powerful. The only real question is whether 4E will do well enough according to whatever metrics WotC (and possibly Hasbro) has set for it. Personally, I have a hard time seeing it doing as well as 3E in either bringing in new people to the game or in enticing back people who'd once played and had fallen away for whatever reason. However, I'm not yet convinced that 4E's design, both mechanically and in terms of "fluff," has as much to do with traditional tabletop roleplaying as it does with building up the D&D IP for more lucrative avenues in other markets.
All that aside, I think, no matter what happens, 4E's advent presents an opportunity -- perhaps the best one in some time -- for the hobby and the companies who cater to it. Whether anyone is bold enough to do so remains to be seen.
|
I don't know if we can. tabletop RPGs are dying. Think of it like population growth. We'd need to teach 2.1 gamers per family. How many of us are having success in that?
Four kids + 1 wife = 5 new gamers in my family.
Plus, I have taught several friends to play through the years. Don't know how dedicated any of them were afterwards however. My kids on the other hand, I predict, will be solid gamers throughout the years.
I will flip the question. Can the industry survive not going to a new edition at some point? It seems to me that the closest the industry came to death was late 2nd edition. Third edition seemed to save DND. At least, I know that it did so for me. I had drifted away from the game because I didn't like late 2nd edition (kits, etc.) and my house rules made introducing new players harder and harder. I don't think 3.5e is anything like in the same state as late 2nd edition, but there is a danger of it going down that path because of the need to maintain a revenue stream for Wizards. I would rather have a 4e than a 3.5e system increasingly undermined by the splat books that must be produced to meet Wizards payroll demands. So, I accept fourth edition as an eventual necessity and hope that it is good and succeeds. In my opinion, this could even be good for 3.5e, because it freezes it in place at a point where the system is still solid. So, I agree that the failure of fourth edition would be detrimental to the industry, but I also think not producing a new edition could be dangerous for the industry. In other words, Wizards is in a difficult spot, but if I were in their shoes, I think I would have opted as they did. If they can create a good edition, the industry will prosper. If they fail, at least they went down giving it their best shot.
Marnak out.
|
When 3rd ed came out, I didn't really know anything about it. Moreover, I was really not that attached to 1st ed and 2nd ed. Hence, when I shifted to 3rd ed I had no built in prejudices or preferences against or for 3rd ed, so making the transition was easy.
The situation now is quite different. I've grown attached to 3.5 ed and I have actually most,if not all,of the official books released by WOTC not to mention a lot of supplements courtesy of the people here at Paizo and Kenzerco (KODT). Give Credit to where Credit is due. Further, I've been hearing a lot of things about 4th ed that I don't agree with. Making the transition for me to 4th ed would be very difficult. I might even sit it out in the light of my hefty investment in 3.5 ed.
To answer the question: I believe those who are in my situation will sit out 4th ed. Would that mean an edition flop? May be. May be not. Will it kill the industry? Certainly not. It may mean a dent on WOTC profit margin and may actually force them to sell off the D&D franchise. Then good. I want D&D in the hands of people who care about the game foremost.
Making a Great Game and Making an Obscene Profit is one thing. But making an Obscene Profit at the expense of a Great Game is an abomination.
That's all I have to say about that.
I will flip the question. Can the industry survive not going to a new edition at some point?
I think the answer to this is a solid NO. I don't think the industry could continue as it is. The idea the WotC have played out everything they could with 3rd edition doesn't completely fly with me, yet at the same time, I think the edition was reaching it's end. So while I'm not happy about 90% of the things I've read about 4th edition, and while I have no urge (nor intention) to switch over. I think the new edition was needed.
That sayed, I'm not a fan of the new edition. The thing that killed it for me, absolutely killed it, was WotC stating there would be little to no compatibility between the editions. After seeing hints (very small hints) of the game mechanics, most of which seem too 'video gamey' for my tastes, I was even less than thrilled.
This is sad, as I, as some others on here are also, will be introducing people to the hobby, both old and young. I won't be switching to 4th Edition, and it won't be the edition that I'll be using to introduce others too. This is good for the hobby (introducing new players) but not good for the industry as the current rules set won't be the one being used.
I actually wondered something a little different a few months ago. Not if the industry can handle an edition flop, or if it can survive without a new edition, but if, in all honesty, roleplaying games, as we know then, are a hobby with a finite lifespan.
When I was growing up, the family gathered around to play Monopoly and other board games, or they played cards. Now, if families do get together, they play things like Mario Party on the Wii. Television habits changes with cable, then changed again now that we have Tivo and the internet.
I guess my point is that we may just have too much of a societal shift to expect that D&D, as we know it, will continue to endure. Can a generation that has grow up playing a character in WoW that attacks a giant dragon with twenty other people with spell effects going off left and right be expected to get excited about sitting down and reading rulebooks, buying minis, and playing something that, to them, is a slower paced version of the same thing they can do on their computers, except it takes more work?
If we are indeed reaching the point to which the next generation just won't have the frame of reference to be drawn to the game, then the next question that spring to my mind is this: Is it wiser to "ride the wave," realize that your demographic is getting older and you may only have 10 years or so to "live," or do you try to fit a square peg in a round hole by trying to attract the current generation, and risk alienating the people that you "know" will be hanging on at least for a few more years worth of products? Are you then hastening the demise of the industry that was slowly marching to oblivion, "greasing the chute," as it were?
To be completely fair, I'm by no means saying that "our generation" is better for playing tabletop RPGs. I can't say that if I was raised in an era where my first exposure to RPG elements was with something like WoW that I'd abandon it to play any version of D&D. Times do indeed change, and so do pop culture trends. In a way, perhaps we should just be happy that the next generation will grow up with some elements of "our" game, since WoW obviously does inherit much from D&D and other FRPGs.
|
Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
|
I'm too lazy to look up the exact quote, but to paraphrase the Architect from the Matrix Reloaded, "there are levels of survival below this."
That sums up my view. It'll probably survive, but it will be a fragmented hobby. The srd may provide sufficient glue to allow for a large enough network of players, but if it doesn't that will be a huge problem. You can't play the game by yourself, and if there are too many inconsistent competing successors to D&D, it will be tough for the hobby to survive.
But who knows. Maybe a new killer ap will attract sufficient mass to be the new standard in a post d&d world.
Edit: also, ke's perspective makes a great deal of sense as well.
Edit: also, ke's perspective makes a great deal of sense as well.
Thanks Sebastian.
|
I pretty much agree with KEJr, except for the whole gloom and doom and general fear, hatred, and loathing on my part; I think they're hastening the end with a big pump and dump as well as fragmenting the fan base.
I think next June will be when the alarm clock goes off for that first and harshest time, and whether or not people hit snooze or spring into action like Khan in Star Trek is anyone's guess.
Kahhhhnnnnn!!!!!
|
|
When I was growing up, the family gathered around to play Monopoly and other board games, or they played cards. Now, if families do get together, they play things like Mario Party on the Wii. Television habits changes with cable, then changed again now that we have Tivo and the internet.
As an aside. You may find THIS interesting.
A notable quote:
Sitting down to a board game and strategizing for hours might seem archaic in today's chaotic society, especially when there are updated alternatives, such as the Nintendo Wii, Playstation 3, and Webkinz.
But, in fact, round-the-table gaming remains a prominent American pastime, and recently, board games have enjoyed a revival.
Sales have more than doubled in the past nine years, according to market research firm NPD Group. In 1998, nationwide sales were roughly $314 million; last year, they grew to $802.2 million, an increase of 13 percent over 2005.
As far as RPG's go, even if the new edition flops and WotC gasps its final bloated breaths....will the industry die?
Nah. Less bloat. Plenty of creative minds out there. Regardless of the ever hot high-tech wiz-bangery, there will always be people who want some real socializing around a table.
Plus, if D&D died that would affect my Shadowrun, Rifts, Savage Worlds, etc how?
... Can a generation that has grow up playing a character in WoW that attacks a giant dragon with twenty other people with spell effects going off left and right be expected to get excited about sitting down and reading rulebooks, buying minis, and playing something that, to them, is a slower paced version of the same thing they can do on their computers, except it takes more work?...
Story.
It has to come down to a better story.
My gaming group has an average age of ~30. Most of us also play video games or MMORPGs. But DnD offers something different, in that it can be tailored to our specific audience by the DM.
I can create a better story and metaplot for a campaign for my players than a MMORPG or stand alone computer/videogame RPG designed for a mass audience can.
I can't compete for the speed of play and special effects.
I love my old school FF and Phantasy Star games. I've played WoW (I don't anymore because it sucked up all my free time, lol) I just spent the last couple nights not sleeping nearly enough so I could beat Mass Effect.
But the computer/videogame RPG/MMORPG storyline that can compete with a well crafted adventure, which is further tailored to my specific group and our tastes? Few and far between.
That is where the tabletop RPG market shines in comparison.
*Well, that and the social aspects when everyone gathers around the table. MMOPRGs have social aspects as well, but on a different level
Rifts movie--the salvation of rpg's.
As great as that sounds I'm sick,sick,sick of how Hollywood takes a book, game or history story and slap the "We got make it so the average Jane&Joe can understand the story". If a Book is a huge story then make a huge film don't cut corners.
...And hey George Lucas I know your up to something...I sense something. A pretense I've not felt since...
|
|
Rifts movie--the salvation of rpg's.As great as that sounds I'm sick,sick,sick of how Hollywood takes a book, game or history story and slap the "We got make it so the average Jane&Joe can understand the story". If a Book is a huge story then make a huge film don't cut corners.
...And hey George Lucas I know your up to something...I sense something. A pretense I've not felt since...
I know....I just want Rifts action figures.
I hope George gets that t.v. Star Wars thing going soon.|
RPG Superstar 2008 Top 8
|
Rifts movie--the salvation of rpg's.As great as that sounds I'm sick,sick,sick of how Hollywood takes a book, game or history story and slap the "We got make it so the average Jane&Joe can understand the story". If a Book is a huge story then make a huge film don't cut corners.
...And hey George Lucas I know your up to something...I sense something. A pretense I've not felt since...
Come on, Glitter Boys and the Coalition just BEG for Hollywood. Its like, everything that Hollywood would want to add: over the top machinery and weapons, vivid scenes of a post apocalyptic world, Mutants and such are already there. Its perfect.
Long Tail 101
The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits" (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers. In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly-target goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare.
One example of this is the theory's prediction that demand for products not available in traditional bricks and mortar stores is potentially as big as for those that are. But the same is true for video not available on broadcast TV on any given day, and songs not played on radio. In other words, the potential aggregate size of the many small markets in goods that don't individually sell well enough for traditional retail and broadcast distribution may rival that of the existing large market in goods that do cross that economic bar.
Traditional retail economics dictate that stores only stock the likely hits, because shelf space is expensive. But online retailers (from Amazon to iTunes) can stock virtually everything, and the number of available niche products outnumber the hits by several orders of magnitude. Those millions of niches are the Long Tail, which had been largely neglected until recently in favor of the Short Head of hits.
When consumers are offered infinite choice, the true shape of demand is revealed. And it turns out to be less hit-centric than we thought. People gravitate towards niches because they satisfy narrow interests better, and in one aspect of our life or another we all have some narrow interest (whether we think of it that way or not).
We are willing to spend money on Role playing games. Even if we are a niche, we can look forward to an explosion of content as the digital age truly takes off. We are going to look back on the D&D of today with the same fondness techies have for the ZX Spectrum and the VW bug.
|
|
Rifts movie--the salvation of rpg's.As great as that sounds I'm sick,sick,sick of how Hollywood takes a book, game or history story and slap the "We got make it so the average Jane&Joe can understand the story". If a Book is a huge story then make a huge film don't cut corners.
...And hey George Lucas I know your up to something...I sense something. A pretense I've not felt since...
Come on, Glitter Boys and the Coalition just BEG for Hollywood. Its like, everything that Hollywood would want to add: over the top machinery and weapons, vivid scenes of a post apocalyptic world, Mutants and such are already there. Its perfect.
There actually has been talk of a Rifts movie as well. Since about 2004 I believe, by Jerry Bruckheimer.
Supposedly, this year the option to do so was renewed for another year and after the writer's strike, work on the screenplay will begin. Like I said though, this is *supposedly*.
|
|
White Wolf is the only other one that even comes close, IIRC, with HERO, Steve Jackson Games and Palladium fighting for a distant third...
Yeah, in the past,White Wolf was a VERY distant 2nd. In past RPG market shares I had seen, you could combine ALL of the other companies and still end up with a smaller market share than WotC.
Over on EN World Clark Peterson from Necromancer Games made an interesting comment:
"And I hate the idea of our player base being fragmented, because that means the game gets fragmented and who is kidding who table top roleplaying--while it will always be my favorite--runs the risk of going the way of the dodo bird. As goes the industry leader, so goes the industry. I dont even want to imagine what would happen to table top roleplaying if 4E fails to dig in and get traction. "
If 4E is unsuccessful, to what extent do you think it will hurt the 'industry'? How will it impact your FLGS? Your favorite game publishers? Your table?
It would effect my FLGS. But not fatally. CCGs and minis actually bring in more money. I know at mine the minis get the lion's share of floor space.
I would call it a stumbler, but not a toppler.And that is Necro Games wishful thinking that tabletop will flop if D&D does. Did video games die when Atari dropped the ball in the early 80s? Their top dudes bailed and made another company, their divisions (home console, arcade, and computer) didn't cooperate and sales fell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
Are you a Hasbro/WotC stockholder? If D&D4 drops would it hurt your personal finances? Then how would that stop you from gaming? How would that stop you from buying more games? Somebody will make money if we still want to buy things. And D&D4 dropping isn't going to plug my want for new books.
Long Tail 101
This shift can already be seen: WalMart style superstores dominate the brick and mortar retailers. Brick and mortar specialty stores are dying or moving online. The FLGS is being replaced by Amazon, E-Bay, or direct orders to the publishers (like, say, Paizo).
We are willing to spend money on Role playing games. Even if we are a niche, we can look forward to an explosion of content as the digital age truly takes off. We are going to look back on the D&D of today with the same fondness techies have for the ZX Spectrum and the VW bug.
The direct from the publisher model, coupled with the d20/OGL, has already produced a boom in content even greater than the "heyday" of the late 1980s/early 1990s, IIRC. Not all of the early d20/OGL content was good quality, but then the late '80s had some stinkers, too. Also, it's much easier for publisher to produce and for the consumer to find quality content, so a complete implosion of the market, even if 4e tanks, is unlikely.
As far as the "evolution of D&D" goes, until they can replicate the game with the same level of detail and flexibility that I can achieve with pencil, paper, and my imagination, RPGs will remain a non-digital experience for me. Certain digital tools can make things easier, but D&D is not just a MMO played "offline." Too bad WotC/Hasbro has a different opinion.
The only way 4th ed. is going to flop is if the rules are unplayable, and the DI is expensive, unadulterated rubbish. But, even if the new edition is an abject failure, other companies will find a way to keep the game going. Whether it's 3.5, 3.75, a d20 variant, 4th ed. (revised), whatever.
My hypothesis is that this whole make D&D about WoW, minis and teenyboppers is a phase. I suspect WotC won't pull in enough new customers — especially from the demographic they're after — to replace those customers they are potentially losing. As a result, by 2009, they'll change rails, and be courting and catering to their traditional audience again...
My hypothesis is that this whole make D&D about WoW, minis and teenyboppers is a phase. I suspect WotC won't pull in enough new customers — especially from the demographic they're after — to replace those customers they are potentially losing. As a result, by 2009, they'll change rails, and be courting and catering to their traditional audience again...
I'm not a person who prays BUT, in this instance, I'm praying that you're right on the money.
Even though it makes my wife crazy, I love spending most of my extra cash on D&D books. At the same time I won't be investing in 4th edition at all. Hopefully, by 2009 (according to your hypothesis), I'll be dumping money into my D&D habit again!
Here's what they told me in Costa Rica: "The big tree falls, and the little trees can reach for the sun."
Taking out some little trees in the process :P
Perhaps Heaths bark is worse than his bite. I for one welcome another critic. Nice doggy, throw the guy a bone.
I'm not a person who prays BUT, in this instance, I'm praying that you're right on the money.
My hypothesis is that this whole make D&D about WoW, minis and teenyboppers is a phase. I suspect WotC won't pull in enough new customers — especially from the demographic they're after — to replace those customers they are potentially losing. As a result, by 2009, they'll change rails, and be courting and catering to their traditional audience again...
Same here. Let's convert THEM, not the other way 'round!
-The Gneech
|
|
My hypothesis is that this whole make D&D about WoW, minis and teenyboppers is a phase. I suspect WotC won't pull in enough new customers — especially from the demographic they're after — to replace those customers they are potentially losing. As a result, by 2009, they'll change rails, and be courting and catering to their traditional audience again...I'm not a person who prays BUT, in this instance, I'm praying that you're right on the money.
Even though it makes my wife crazy, I love spending most of my extra cash on D&D books. At the same time I won't be investing in 4th edition at all. Hopefully, by 2009 (according to your hypothesis), I'll be dumping money into my D&D habit again!
It would be truly sweet if, by that time, 3.P was the dominant ruleset for D&D... :) What if, in a few years, Paizo is actually in a position to buy WotC or at least the D&D line from them? Yah, dreaming away... :)
Blaaarrrrffffff
En?
But the computer/videogame RPG/MMORPG storyline that can compete with a well crafted adventure, which is further tailored to my specific group and our tastes? Few and far between.
Agreed. The only CRPGs that ever captured my imagination like a good table top RPG were the Ultima series (Particularly the later ones).
CRPGs and MMORPG just don't have the story or create the sense of challenge.