Lets give it a few months from the release of the new core books.
Come September 2008, what do you think the split will be between those who are now playing 4th edition compared to those who are sticking with 3.X?
I'm one of those guys who doesnt want to change and the news of a new edition comming out was a horrible blow that still upsets me. So I of course would like to think that there will be many gamers who will stick with 3.5.
However, I do not want personal feelings to judge cold hard facts. What is your untainted prediction of the future?
50/50? (I wish)
70/30 in favor of 4th? (my hopeful prediction)
95/5 in favor of 4th and I will be a hopeless relic?
Just wondering how you see things shaping up.
Other than September 2008...Whats your prediction for September 2009?
99/1 in favor of 4th?
4th Edition fails and WotC stops making books?
All of the cool people will be on one side and all the loosers on the other...unfortunately we can't decide which is which.
I'll tell you which side is the cool side when I finalize my choice 100%. :P
The difference between 3.5 players and 4.0 players will 0.5!
But seriously, it does not matter what percentage switch to 4E! Play the game that you want to play!
Just because more people play it does not make it better.
I traveled to the future and played 20th edition in a holo-suite with other players.
Our DM was mostly invisible in the room but he could appear like the face of god in Time Bandits and the hi-tech chamber conferred upon him the same low voice. All in all, it was by far a superior immersion, though because there was no junk food to be found in a simulated fantasy world, such as a table with a bowl of pretzels, certain monsters were invented to solve this problem. Chipwich golems and Doritos faeries. Such edible critters fall outside the alignment system and you're pretty much allowed to slash and gobble without fear of divine judgement.
Overall, in 2008, I'd guess 75-80% that play 3.5 will switch & 20-25% will either stay 3.5 or go to another system.
For Paizo customers, I'd guess 60-65% will switch to (or at least try) 4E, unless Paizo stays 3.5. (In which case it would probably be more 50-50, unless other OGL companies also come forth and stay 3.5., which could tip the scales a bit more.)
In 2009, it will depend on how good or bad 4E is received & reviewed. If the game sucks, get some popcorn and watch the fireworks as the RPG companies scramble to fill the void....
Overall, in 2008, I'd guess 75-80% that play 3.5 will switch & 20-25% will either stay 3.5 or go to another system.
For Paizo customers, I'd guess 60-65% will switch to (or at least try) 4E, unless Paizo stays 3.5. (In which case it would probably be more 50-50, unless other OGL companies also come forth and stay 3.5., which could tip the scales a bit more.)
In 2009, it will depend on how good or bad 4E is received & reviewed. If the game sucks, get some popcorn and watch the fireworks as the RPG companies scramble to fill the void....
Hehe void. void. void. If you replace all the letters void spells cats. i like kittys.
I don't care if i'm in the cool group or not... in fact i'll be over there in that corner reading "Choose Your Own Adventure" books.
(Which decidedly puts me in the non-cool category i think).
I don't care if i'm in the cool group or not... in fact i'll be over there in that corner reading "Choose Your Own Adventure" books.
(Which decidedly puts me in the non-cool category i think).
I still have several of the old TSR "Endless Quest" books from the early-mid 80s. :)
I still have several of the old TSR "Endless Quest" books from the early-mid 80s. :)I don't care if i'm in the cool group or not... in fact i'll be over there in that corner reading "Choose Your Own Adventure" books.
(Which decidedly puts me in the non-cool category i think).
Ugh, gimme Fighting Fantasy any day- Deathtrap Dungeon, anyone?
There's no getting away from it, best to revel in our non-coolness
I still have several of the old TSR "Endless Quest" books from the early-mid 80s. :)
We've got some of those kicking around the book store here... might have to pick them up. Had (have) some of the Lone Wolf books also... those were fun.
I don't care if i'm in the cool group or not... in fact i'll be over there in that corner reading "Choose Your Own Adventure" books.
(Which decidedly puts me in the non-cool category i think).
Darn tootin'! The cool kids all got Lone Wolf: A Kai Disciple books. :P
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By this time next year, my current 3.5 campaign may very well still be running, and even if it isn't, the next one my group is planning on doing is a 3.5 campaign as well.
I intend to BUY the new PHB when it comes out, but I don't expect to be actively PLAYING with it for a long time, whether I decide I like it or not.
A year after THAT ... 5e will be announced... :evilgrin:
The only prediction that I will agree with 100% is that! I can see it happening already. At the latest, I think 5E will roll around in 2013.
After all, D&D has become another of WotC's collectible games...minus the cards, unless you're playing D&D Minis that is.
Among us here on the boards (which I wish was a good representation of gamers in cross-section, but it isn't) I forsee about 33% making the transition (of which I will be one) and about 67% sticking with 3.5.
A good chunk more might go to 4e if Paizo does, but I don't see that happening. It just seems like such an olive branch to their customers to stay 3.5 or to even make a custom Paizo system for Pathfinder.
Gamers on the whole? I think it will be more of a 50-50 split (though the people over at Gleemax aren't too much less bitter in general than us).
Gamers on the whole? I think it will be more of a 50-50 split (though the people over at Gleemax aren't too much less bitter in general than us).
Really? I would think the Gleemax crowd would be very pro-4E.
Strange.
And as one who will be switching to 4E, why do you think it will be more of a 50-50 split? (Because, I think that if that actually ends up being the case, then 4E would be a catastrophic failure.)
Our group seems to pretty much hate everything we have heard about 4.0 expcept one thing. (we like the race levels)
And i really dont think it will be very well excepted by most vetran DND players
It seems like there are making the game for "Dumber" players I really think there will be 3 types of gamers who really will like 4.0
The I want new stuff all the time (the now video game generation)
The players who think there are fundamential problems with the current 3.5 system (i think a very small group could be wrong i think 3.5 is great)
The roleplayers who rather role play out of every encounter then fight them (Lets talk nice to the Balor so it doesnt steal our souls, I dont know many of these but they seem to show up on boards alot and I hear about them)
I really think some of the percentages will be determined if some of the big NON WOC companies (Paizo please) stick with 3.5 then alot of people wont feel presured that they wont get anything new if they dont change systems
Our group got very close to leaving D&D last summer due to problems we kept running into in 3.5, and some problems that are embedded into the D&D system. Level treadmilling, economy, spell system, and reliance on magic items are all cited as big problems by our group.
Most (all) of those aren't really issues with 3.5 and were in previous versions as well but there simply are some types of stories you can't tell with the framework that is the current D&D.
When 4e came out and a few details were mentioned, our list of problems were largely addressed as at least things to be looked at. It's really caused us to stick with D&D for now and see what 4e looks like once it's out and give it a fair shake. If they can fix even a percentage of what's wrong, in our opinion, with D&D (note: I'm saying D&D, not 3.5) then we're all sorts of thrilled. I'm not nostalgic at all for the older editions and have seen a gradual progression to a better, smoother game.
As far as I'm concerned, D&D isn't that expensive a hobby as that sort of thing goes. Buy the books and then you're set for a few years. Heck, if I spent $100 a year in hardbacks on D&D it'd be less than other hobbies, and I'm no where near that average. My biggest D&D expenses right now are Paizo subscriptions. Others may simply buy more than I do, or have a different level for what a hobby should cost.
I don't really see why there's so much hatred for 4e already. It's not as if any details are even out except for a sketch of "these are things we want to change". I'd be interested to go back to pre-3.0 days and pre-3.5 days and look at forums to see how much people were going to hate the new system before it came out - I seem to remember an awful lot but in the end it turned out OK. 4e could do the same if given a chance.
Remember "Wait & see. Not hate & see."
Some stories can't be told with D&D. Then again that is usually because it isn't D&D. Old West, insanity, space combat, star wars, super powers (though it seems to be coming close to), etc.
See what I did above? I'm soooo clever.
Level treadmilling, economy, spell system, and reliance on magic items are all cited as big problems by our group.
What do you mean by Level Treadmilling?
Economy? how is that the game mechanic and not the setting you are playing in?
Spell System there are alot of optional rules for differnt spell systems. What are your problems with spell systems?
Reliance on magic items, you can survive and do well with small amounts of magic items (multiple Ravenloft campaigns have shown me that) but our game group thinks all the great magic items is a great part of the game
What do you mean by Level Treadmilling?
Basically that the power levels of each level are dramatically different. I can't, say, involve a 2nd level character in with a 5th level party because the power level is already too different. Doing so would amost certainly cause the 2nd level person to die quickly in their first battle.
This means that villians and other people (even town guards) have to level just to make things challenging as the party progresses.
Economy? how is that the game mechanic and not the setting you are playing in?
While it's not a game-mechanic problem, it is a game-system problem. The way D&D's economy works is strange, and players end up richer than kings pretty early in their careers. There isn't a functional economy designed, and what little economy is there is easily broken by PC actions. It's definately not a 3.5 problem and has existed in all of D&D. To see that it may be addressed in 4e is something that excites us.
Spell System there are alot of optional rules for differnt spell systems. What are your problems with spell systems?
True, lots of optional rules and other systems entirely. Still, we'd like a system where the default system was good, something which was getting us to look at non-D&D systems in the first place. The problem we have with the D&D spell system boils down to:
Memorizing: The party is effective until the wizard is out of spells. Then the party has to rest unless it's willing to take on much higher risk. But they've only been awake for an hour before they ran out of spells, so now they sit on their thumbs for the rest of the day.
Spell levels/selection: 3rd level fireball is broken/overpowered. There's little incentive to take interesting/utility spells over offensive spells, even for a role-playing (non-hack/slash) heavy campaign.
Reliance on magic items, you can survive and do well with small amounts of magic items (multiple Ravenloft campaigns have shown me that) but our game group thinks all the great magic items is a great part of the game
At 10th level, for instance, if the fighter isn't decked out in some magic he'll be practically useless compared to a wizard of equal level. The caster's spells level up as they level and can avoid some of the magic item problems, but melee types don't get that benefit, and the casters are already overpowering the melee types at the mid-levels. The system/setting assumes that melee types will be gaining magic gear as they level just to stay competitive with the casters. As one of our players puts it "you are your gear", which is true for many characters, unfortunately (in my opinion).
We tried something where all items were charged/temporary as a way to lessen the reliance of permanent items and cause people to swap out their items but the maintenance of it was more than the fun it may have added.
Basically that the power levels of each level are dramatically different. I can't, say, involve a 2nd level character in with a 5th level party because the power level is already too different. Doing so would amost certainly cause the 2nd level person to die quickly in their first battle.
This means that villians and other people (even town guards) have to level just to make things challenging as the party progresses.
Well then again you are talking about 2 1/2 times more levels.
Compare a 4th level character to a 10th? 6th to 15th? Not great examples but kind of the concept I was going for (I hope). If 2 = 5 I would be very confused.Oh and the person playing the 2 level character should die if the acted as if they were 5 level.
Basically that the power levels of each level are dramatically different. I can't, say, involve a 2nd level character in with a 5th level party because the power level is already too different. Doing so would amost certainly cause the 2nd level person to die quickly in their first battle.
This means that villians and other people (even town guards) have to level just to make things challenging as the party progresses.
Well then again you are talking about 2 1/2 times more levels.
Compare a 4th level character to a 10th? 6th to 15th? Not great examples but kind of the concept I was going for (I hope). If 2 = 5 I would be very confused.Oh and the person playing the 2 level character should die if the acted as if they were 5 level.
I don't know that you missed the point, but I think we're looking at things differently.
I don't want a system where 2nd level and 5th level are so remarkably different in power level. They're far more than 2.5 times in power, even though that's all they are in level. I mainly want a smoother progression.
For instance, a small town that the party encounters has a problem of an 8th level rogue wandering around and asks the party for help. Because it's an 8th level rogue and party, certain other things in the town have to scale up so there's even a challenge. If the guards are all 1st and 2nd level, they may as well not even exist. Instead, the guards have to be scaled up to 4-6th level to matter at all. If they're that level, what the heck are they doing in a small town? If they stay 1st level, the party will see them as nothing but a problem and people to protect instead of people to ask for help. I like an environment where the party is always working with people around them and there's no way an 8th level party will want to work with even a 3rd level person since one attack on the 8th level group will slaughter the lower level with nothing they can do about it.
If the progression were slower, or the power differential were less, then I wouldn't have to level every single NPC that the party encounters who they may want help from.
It mainly comes down to how the story and setting feels, and while I want the party to be heroic, if they are more powerful than everyone by orders of magnitude it diminishes how stories can be told, in my opinion.
Yes, a 2 vs 5 battle should have predictable results, but I would like it to last more than a round. And maybe with really creative tactics (and luck) I think a 2nd level party should be able to survive, if maybe not win.
I'm not sure what the split will be, but I'm firmly convinced 4e will be one of the poorest-selling (if not the worst selling) edition to date.
5e, on the other hand, will probably be huge.
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Our group got very close to leaving D&D last summer due to problems we kept running into in 3.5, and some problems that are embedded into the D&D system. Level treadmilling, economy, spell system, and reliance on magic items are all cited as big problems by our group.
Most (all) of those aren't really issues with 3.5 and were in previous versions as well but there simply are some types of stories you can't tell with the framework that is the current D&D.
When 4e came out and a few details were mentioned, our list of problems were largely addressed as at least things to be looked at. It's really caused us to stick with D&D for now and see what 4e looks like once it's out and give it a fair shake. If they can fix even a percentage of what's wrong, in our opinion, with D&D (note: I'm saying D&D, not 3.5) then we're all sorts of thrilled. I'm not nostalgic at all for the older editions and have seen a gradual progression to a better, smoother game.
As far as I'm concerned, D&D isn't that expensive a hobby as that sort of thing goes. Buy the books and then you're set for a few years. Heck, if I spent $100 a year in hardbacks on D&D it'd be less than other hobbies, and I'm no where near that average. My biggest D&D expenses right now are Paizo subscriptions. Others may simply buy more than I do, or have a different level for what a hobby should cost.
I don't really see why there's so much hatred for 4e already. It's not as if any details are even out except for a sketch of "these are things we want to change". I'd be interested to go back to pre-3.0 days and pre-3.5 days and look at forums to see how much people were going to hate the new system before it came out - I seem to remember an awful lot but in the end it turned out OK. 4e could do the same if given a chance.
I had already quit 2nd edition D&D because I hated giving people a pamphlet of my house rules, because it was that broken. 3rd edition made perfect sense, it was a new company in control. 2nd Edition actually made sense as well, they took more than a decade of materials, of which a lot of the newer rules were compiled into the system as a whole. now, 3.5 came out only 3 years after 3rd. and now they're releasing 4E 4 years after 3.5...so in another 2 years I'll be looking for 4.5 and in 3 years I'll be looking for 5th edition on the shelves and laughing all the way! Hasbro is greedy, I'm not gonna play the new edition, tho I will l look at the PHB and steal ideas for my 3.5 game.
Heh shade I could see 5E being huge if Hasbro sells off D&D to someone like....Paizo....
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I played D&D from 1976 until 1982. Then I realized that D&D sucked.
I played RuneQuest from 1982 until Warhammer Fantasy Role Play game along in the early 90s because my friends wanted to go back to high fantasy.
3E brought me back to D&D because the rules were finally decent. Not as good as RQ or WFRP but good enough. We adopted 3.5 right away because the upgrade made it even better.
Now 3.5 is long in the tooth.
I think most D&D players will see that by 10/08 and a vast majority some time after that. Some will find other games.
But most FRPers will play D&D - that is a constant.
Sploooorrrrrttttttcccchhhhhh!
I think what one will find is that the demographics will vary from one web site to another and be influenced by various factors.
At Pazio and Canonfire, I think people are more likely to stay with 3.5 then switch over as compared to the WOTC site. With Paizo, I'd say a 70/30 split favoring 4th edition within the first year. After that it will increase each year until its maxed out at about 85/15. Now if Paizo decides to stay with 3.5 this number will change drastically, reducing it down to a 50/50 ratio, perhaps even favor 3.5 by a very small margin.
At Canonfire I think less will switch over, maybe a 60/40 ratio, again favoring 4th edition. This will slowly increase as well to a maximum of 80/20. If someone were to pick up Greyhawk material (steadly) it would change things 100%. If it is WOTC begins producing Greyhawk, the ratio would jump up to about 95/5 in favor of 4th edition. If someone like Paizo picked up Greyhawk and stayed with 3.5, then we see about a 98/2 favor for 3.5 edition.
At WOTC we'll see the greatest number of edition changes, somewhere in the area of 90/10 within the first year, possibly higher. After that, it will go as high as 97/3.
Just my thoughts.
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I don't really see why there's so much hatred for 4e already.
I would say that one of the greatest reasons for the hatred of 4th ed. out there is that wotc canned both Dungeon and Dragon magazines. Regardless of what they are trying to push over there on their website, they totally pissed off a lot of people by cutting down these staples of the hobby at a time when they had become better than ever.
Including me.
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I don't really see why there's so much hatred for 4e already.I would say that one of the greatest reasons for the hatred of 4th ed. out there is that wotc canned both Dungeon and Dragon magazines. Regardless of what they are trying to push over there on their website, they totally pissed off a lot of people by cutting down these staples of the hobby at a time when they had become better than ever.
Including me.
Which proves the people in charge of 4E aren't REAL D&D players! No real D&D player would make up lies to justify killing an Icon!!!
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I think what one will find is that the demographics will vary from one web site to another and be influenced by various factors.
At Pazio and Canonfire, I think people are more likely to stay with 3.5 then switch over as compared to the WOTC site. With Paizo, I'd say a 70/30 split favoring 4th edition within the first year. After that it will increase each year until its maxed out at about 85/15. Now if Paizo decides to stay with 3.5 this number will change drastically, reducing it down to a 50/50 ratio, perhaps even favor 3.5 by a very small margin.
At Canonfire I think less will switch over, maybe a 60/40 ratio, again favoring 4th edition. This will slowly increase as well to a maximum of 80/20. If someone were to pick up Greyhawk material (steadly) it would change things 100%. If it is WOTC begins producing Greyhawk, the ratio would jump up to about 95/5 in favor of 4th edition. If someone like Paizo picked up Greyhawk and stayed with 3.5, then we see about a 98/2 favor for 3.5 edition.
At WOTC we'll see the greatest number of edition changes, somewhere in the area of 90/10 within the first year, possibly higher. After that, it will go as high as 97/3.
Just my thoughts.
and 95% of statistics are made up on the spot...like this statistic!
;)
Xaaon of Xen'Drik
Of coarse the numbers I wrote were made up, strictly opinion on my part. The poster asked the forum community what they thought the split would be and so I asnwered them. Nothing more, nothing less. It wouldn't be possible to know for certain what the numbers are until everyone who has switched does. The post wanted speculation and that is what I did. It's ok if you agree or don't agree with those numbers. I was just answering the thread. My Bad?
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Xaaon of Xen'Drik
Of coarse the numbers I wrote were made up, strictly opinion on my part. The poster asked the forum community what they thought the split would be and so I asnwered them. Nothing more, nothing less. It wouldn't be possible to know for certain what the numbers are until everyone who has switched does. The post wanted speculation and that is what I did. It's ok if you agree or don't agree with those numbers. I was just answering the thread. My Bad?
think you missed the " ;) " I put in there...I was joking heh.
I kinda see it as a sad corporate move the generate sales. Why do we need a 4th edition so close to the launch of 3.5 edition? DnD is not MTG and we do not need a new addition every quarter of the fisco year. And it seems like 4th edition is just trying to bring the game closure to video games which...it's a roleplaying game so why even try it. The last books released for 3.5e like the Exemplars of Evil, was kinda lame in the fact that it wouldn't been a great series of articles for Dragon magazine but hardly work for a hard covered book - it was like the writers half heartedly thru it together with tidbits of information they pre-wrote and didn't want to waste. I hope other companies stay with 3.5e to be honest with you.
Xaaon of Xen'Drik
Please forgive my lack of internet literacy skills, not only did I miss that but I didn't know what it meant either. I guess is it my bad. How about I give you a free True Ressurecton card for you to use whenever it comes in handy. My apologies.
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Xaaon of Xen'Drik
Please forgive my lack of internet literacy skills, not only did I miss that but I didn't know what it meant either. I guess is it my bad. How about I give you a free True Ressurecton card for you to use whenever it comes in handy. My apologies.
Does that card include a hat with an "!" on it?
(see the 4e quests thread)
Are they going to have space robots in 4e? or, do those not appear until 5e?
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I kinda see it as a sad corporate move the generate sales. Why do we need a 4th edition so close to the launch of 3.5 edition? DnD is not MTG and we do not need a new addition every quarter of the fisco year. And it seems like 4th edition is just trying to bring the game closure to video games which...it's a roleplaying game so why even try it. The last books released for 3.5e like the Exemplars of Evil, was kinda lame in the fact that it wouldn't been a great series of articles for Dragon magazine but hardly work for a hard covered book - it was like the writers half heartedly thru it together with tidbits of information they pre-wrote and didn't want to waste. I hope other companies stay with 3.5e to be honest with you.
They probably only had the manuscript half written when the word came down the pipe...death to 3.5. Complete your projects with as little overhead as possible. Screw the fluff! No rewrites, no playtests!
No sorry the card True Ressurection card doesn't come with an "!" on it. If your really nice though it will come with a courtsey and a key my private chamber.
I think the split is impossible to predict with reasonable accuracy.
Factor one is that campaigns run to completion unless the group really wants to just chuck everything and start over. So you might see groups who began a recent campaign sticking with 3.5 (or even 3.0) through 2009, then switching over.
Factor two is that we don't have the rules. It's really hard to judge how people will react until the actual data is out.
Factor three: talk is talk. There was a lot of similar emoting (with different verbiage) going on before 3.5 and 3.0.
Factor four: what if something new enters the market or an existing company with broad appeal like Paizo builds something of their own? The former can't be predicted. When Vampire came out, nobody was running around with an accurate idea of how big it and White Wolf would get.
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I think the split is impossible to predict with reasonable accuracy.
Factor one is that campaigns run to completion unless the group really wants to just chuck everything and start over. So you might see groups who began a recent campaign sticking with 3.5 (or even 3.0) through 2009, then switching over.
Factor two is that we don't have the rules. It's really hard to judge how people will react until the actual data is out.
Factor three: talk is talk. There was a lot of similar emoting (with different verbiage) going on before 3.5 and 3.0.
Factor four: what if something new enters the market or an existing company with broad appeal like Paizo builds something of their own? The former can't be predicted. When Vampire came out, nobody was running around with an accurate idea of how big it and White Wolf would get.
There was a major difference between the 3.5E discussion and the 4E discussion...backwards compatibility. Very early on, Wizards said they would not make a conversion book for 4E. Because it would be too difficult to convert between 4E and 3xE.
They also lied to us straight out. They said there wouldn't be a 4th edition until at least 2009...
Got a link to that? They were actually very clever in how they put things. The whole "backwards compatibility" argument was actually that the 2E to 3E conversions didn't work, so they dropped the idea. So this was already a known issue between versions before 4E hit the horizon.
I'm sticking with 3.5 as I have too much invested to switch to a new edition. I'm not going to scrap my Savage Tide game for instance, and 4e is not very Savage Tide friendly with the big changes they are making to demons. I also don't want to run games using two different systems, but I am willing to play in a 4e game.
That said, I might borrow some new ideas from 4e (like giving zombies a trip attack for example). If Paizo were to come out with a 3.75 edition, I could see switching to that assuming it was much more conversion friendly.
But if Pathfinder doesn't switch to 4e...well, I'll have plenty of adventures to run until 5e comes along.
I'm not sure what the split will be, but I'm firmly convinced 4e will be one of the poorest-selling (if not the worst selling) edition to date.
5e, on the other hand, will probably be huge.
That's my hope... especially if 5th edition is published by a company other than WotC (aka Hasbro).
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Got a link to that? They were actually very clever in how they put things. The whole "backwards compatibility" argument was actually that the 2E to 3E conversions didn't work, so they dropped the idea. So this was already a known issue between versions before 4E hit the horizon.
someone know the link where this was discussed, I think it was during GenCon last year or something, I know I read it but can't remember where.