I may not make Champion Voter, but at least I made a solid 3000+ run at it!
Today I added one more item that wasn't on the current list. Hopefully, that gives someone renewed hope.
Also, I'm pretty sure based on probability that a couple of the items in the list are either pre-Cull or an error and that the final list is (or is only slightly above) 502 items items. I had close to this number last week, but then we had a dump of pre-cull items that made things fun :)
Finally, just to verify the list, I've gathered the full text of each item since this weekend--well, at least 498 of them. Hopefully, I can get the last few before voting closes today or else I'll pick them up when they appear in the "Critique my Item" thread in a couple of weeks.
Thanks again to Scarletrose for getting the DB started and to everyone who put in their time to make it better.
Less than 7 hours to go!
I hear ya, roughly 3-4k votes myself... wanted that Champion Title but 2 weeks is rough for that. I've seen every item on the database plus about another 40 or so, my own item a little over a dozen times.
Okay, ran some new(er) numbers and expanded out a bit to help relieve some stress (for myself and others). I expanded out to 64 this time since the judges won't be selecting the top 32 votes and will be looking beyond for ones they like better. Also, I used excel this time because I wasn't going to do 64 numbers for 3 different starting points.
Based on my mathing (again, apologies if it is not 100% accurate), here are the chances of any one item (this means yours) of being in the top 64 items:
- If there are 550 items: 12.36% chance
- If there are 508 items: 13.45% chance
- If there are 504 items: 13.57% chance
Hope this tides some people over until next week!
RPG Superstar 2012 Top 16
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Star Voter Season 6, Dedicated Voter Season 7, Dedicated Voter Season 8
aka FaxCelestis
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The way I look at it, there are only two possibilities: either I'm in the Top 32, or I'm not.
So I figure I've got a 50/50 shot.
Roll a d20. According to the numbers we've got here, if you made post-cull, you have a statistically better chance of being in top 32 than you do of critting.
Marathon Voter Season 7
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Okay, ran some new(er) numbers and expanded out a bit to help relieve some stress (for myself and others). I expanded out to 64 this time since the judges won't be selecting the top 32 votes and will be looking beyond for ones they like better. Also, I used excel this time because I wasn't going to do 64 numbers for 3 different starting points.
Based on my mathing (again, apologies if it is not 100% accurate), here are the chances of any one item (this means yours) of being in the top 64 items:
- If there are 550 items: 12.36% chance
- If there are 508 items: 13.45% chance
- If there are 504 items: 13.57% chance
Hope this tides some people over until next week!
The problem here is that it assumes a level playing field with equal participants.
well, each item should theroretically have about the same number of votes (both up and down totaled). This isn't much for predicting the order or how people voted for you, but rather, the chance that your item's rating will be in the top 64 of rated items.
EDIT: Basically, what I'm saying, is that I assumed there is a level playing field with equal amounts of participation.
Well I have not made champion, however I just looked through the database and did not find any items that I had not seen. So yeah.
Well I have not made champion, however I just looked through the database and did not find any items that I had not seen. So yeah.I'm only at 494 of the 502, but only 2100 votes.
Do you have any that isn't on the list?
Not that I saw, but I could swear I have seen the truthly lies turtle since cull but did not write down date/time.
I've seen all the items on the database since the cull except those that are in red and are in question. I have seen no others.
Dedicated Voter Season 7
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It has been thought and even said, but it still deserves repeating:
The atmosphere of this forum is fantastic...
The quality of the posts is remarkable...
The dedication of the posters is unsurpassed...
All in all I give this place and you guys my highest accolade:
Epic...
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The way I figure it, almost everyone that follows and posts on the boards is likely to be in the top half of entrants. Anyone that has read and heeded the ample advice on the forums (and done their homework otherwise) is likely to be in the top 25%.
32 being roughly 25% of 125 (which is 25% of 500), I'd say that means that everyone here right now ought to have AT LEAST a 1-in-4 chance of being in the top 32. After that, it's all mojo.
Does that make you excited? It should!
So my item *was* on the post-cull list, but it's not there anymore. Any guesses why?
I never did see it myself, pre- or post-cull, though I only made it to somewhere between Star and Dedicated.
(Cleanthes is one handsome fella.)
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Dedicated Voter Season 7
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The way I figure it, almost everyone that follows and posts on the boards is likely to be in the top half of entrants. Anyone that has read and heeded the ample advice on the forums (and done their homework otherwise) is likely to be in the top 25%.
32 being roughly 25% of 125 (which is 25% of 500), I'd say that means that everyone here right now ought to have AT LEAST a 1-in-4 chance of being in the top 32. After that, it's all mojo.
Does that make you excited? It should!
And here I was feeling discouraged. What a nice thought!
(Cleanthes is one handsome fella.)
Right back at ya, you charmer you! ;-)
I just went through my list (work was crazy busy this year, so I was able to vote *way* less than last year) and of the 170 unique items I saw, none were new.
Stupid work.
So my item *was* on the post-cull list, but it's not there anymore. Any guesses why?
One person who added items had the wrong time for the cull initially, so some items were taken out. Those should be in the second column of the spreadsheet now.
Owner - D20 Hobbies
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Marathon Voter Season 7, Marathon Voter Season 8
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So my item *was* on the post-cull list, but it's not there anymore. Any guesses why?
That would be my fault, I pulled a report out of my database of votes and didn't exclude everything the day of the cull. So several pre-cull items were entered. When Paizo came along to inform us the number was incorrect, I did an audit and discovered the error.
Well my item must have been culled.
Damn.
Wait...how are people even seeing items that have or haven't been "culled"? I thought nobody knew anything until 32 items were released next week.
After the first week of voting the bottom 20% of the items were culled. Anything seen in the second week of voting (closed yesterday) is what this database refers to.
EDIT: adding a link to the 'cull' blog
Although it got moved to the potentially culled list, I am almost certain that I saw the 'Clacket Jacket' the day before voting ended (I had stopped keeping my personal spread sheet updated by that point though, so I can't be 100% certain... call me 99% sure)
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Dedicated Voter Season 7
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Here I present to you a database to add all the items that you see and have survived the cull.
Please use it responsibly.
that means
- Do not edit or erase entries made by other users
- Only add items you will see from now on
- be sure to not write in a cell where someone else is writing(also, you don't need to use the first free cell, you can write wherever you want in the first column)
- Always use a free cell in the first column so that we can sort it in an alphabetical order
- If the rows are finished add more rows (the button is at the end of the sheet)
- Do not give indication about your item
- Entry the item via copy and paste to make sure is spelled correctly
I hope everybody will use it correctly as a tool to discover the item that have survived and the actual number of survivors.
Scarletrose, I notice the tab on the spreadsheet is entitled "Foglio1" so I take it that you are Italian?
Piacere...