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One of the things about Pathfinder 2e that I found particularly interesting was the change to poison mechanics, since Poisons were terrible in Pathfinder 1e. Trying to determine the distribution of effects you can expect from poisoning a particular creature is actually rather involved with the multi stage affliction system combined with the critical failure/success system, as the fact that getting stuck at higher stages of poisoning becomes more difficult to escape in a non-linear manner as the save DC increases. Things get further complicated by the fact that some poisons with Sickened or Drained make it harder to escape later stages, and Virulent kicks in at higher levels.
There are a lot of practical considerations to poison use that don't have direct math modeling, like: Can you figure out creative ways to contact or ingest poison enemies (both are usually stronger)? Does combat last long enough to get enough of the effect? How valuable are the status conditions? Aside from these more qualitative questions, there's the main quantitative one, which is: for a given Poison and enemy saving throw, what does the damage distribution look like?
I decided to calculate this so I could get a feel for poison damage vs. enemy fort save to try and answer questions like: How effective would the poisons from a multiclass Alchemist be at adding damage to low level minions? How effective would alchemist poisons be vs. typical level -3 or level -4 minions? vs. even level or +1 or +2 bosses? How effective would an emergency Level +2 Poison consumable be at killing +1 or +2 bosses? How large of an improvement in damage can be expected from applying a negative modifier to the target saves in a particular situation?
To do this, I wrote a C++ program to simulate the outcomes for each posion and each fort save bonus between +0 and +39, and loaded the tables into the spreadsheet here: Poison Damage Analysis. The methodology isn't perfect; I made a simplifying assumption that each poison stage would do exactly average damage for the dice, rather than working out the distribution of dice results to add to the probability of the different damage outcomes. It should, however, suffice to give some intuition about the different outcomes to expect from a particular situation, with approximate PDF, CDF and average for the damage done.
I'm still playing around with the numbers, but some initial takeaways from my first question:
--Multiclassing Alchemist for poisons as a rogue may be ok as a damage add vs. lackeys, but it is pretty dependent on level and saving throws. Examples:
Lvl 2 w/ Level 1 Poison (Giant Centipede Venom) vs. Level 0 (Pugwampi): 9.44 Avg Damage
Level 2 w/Level 1 Poison vs. Level 0 (Orc Brute): 7.27 Avg Damge
Lvl 6 w/ Level 3 Poison (Graveroot) vs. Level 2 (Dhampir Wizard): 14.6 Avg Damage (Also Stupefied!)
Lvl 6 w/ Level 3 Poison vs. Level 2 (Bug Bear Thug): 6.3 Damage
Lvl 10 w/ Level 5 Poison (Hunting Spider Venom) vs. Level 6 (Annis Hag): 2.04 Avg Damage
Lvl 10 w/ Level 5 Poison vs. Level 6 (Lamia): 6.3 Avg Damage
Level 12 w/ Level 7 Poison (Giant Wasp Venom) vs. Level 8 (Lamia Matriarch): 20.46 Avg Damage
Level 12 w/ Level 7 Poison vs. Level 8 (Tricerotops): 5.63 Avg Damage
Lvl 14 w/ Level 9 Poison (Spider Root) vs. Level 10 (Dark Naga): 24.44 Avg Damage
Lvl 14 w/ Level 9 Poison vs. Level 10 (Gug): 14 Avg Damage
The middling examples made this look pretty useless; spending an action for an average of +2 damage against a minion (with high variance) is pretty bad at level 6. 24.44 damage at level 14 looks like it might be not too bad though, and some of the lower level cases actually look pretty decent.
I'm going to keep looking at different situations to get a feel for how poisons behave, but I thought I would share my work in case anyone else finds this interesting.
Very cool, thanks for sharing your calculations. The calculations you shared above are for below-level poisons, for a multiclass alchemist. What about a main class alchemist, who can produce at-level poisons with advanced alchemy (and presumably apply poisons to multiple weapons before the fight starts rather than applying mid-fight)? How do the numbers compare to a spell, or a martial attack?
Another avenue of exploration would be multiple exposures against one creature VS poisoning two different creatures. And also, how much value does the Potent Poisoner feat for alchemist add?
Once again, thank you for this analysis. I'm very interested in playing a poisoner, and alchemist and rogue provide way more for that out of the gate than any class did in 1st edition.
Another avenue of exploration would be multiple exposures against one creature VS poisoning two different creatures.
It's better to make multiple exposures against one creature. It can be calculated very easily. For example, if you take Wyvern Poison and 2 exposures:
Double exposure = 11d6 of damage on one creature.
Single exposure on 2 creature = 5d6 damage on 2 creatures.
Subsequent rounds:
In case of monsters making all their saves:
Double exposure = 16d6 of damage on one creature.
Single exposure on 2 creatures = 5d6 on 2 creatures.
In case of monsters making one save and failing the other:
Double exposure = 22d6 or 25d6 on one creature, at stage 2 after 2 rounds.
Single exposure on 2 creatures = 5d6 on one creature, 11d6 on another one, at stage 2.
In case of monsters failing all their saves:
Double exposure = 19d6 on one creature, at stage 3 after one round.
Single exposure on 2 creatures = 11d6 on 2 creatures, both at stage 2.
So, as you can see, the only case where focusing on multiple creatures is roughly equivalent to poisoning one multiple times is if the monsters fail all their saves. So, unless the monsters you face have suboptimal Fortitude saves, it's better to poison multiple times the same creature (also, focus fire is a far better combat tactic than spreading damage).
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Let's take a look at a few case studies for an Alchemist using poison at level against a Level -1 enemy, and include the impact of potent poisoner/powerful alchemy if it increases the DC. Included are average damage, damage to 1 shot the target (over the duration), and chance of no effect.
Level 3 (Graveroot), vs. Level 2 (Kobold Dragon Mage): Avg 14.66 damage; 30% chance of 0 damage, 50% chance fatal)
Level 3, vs. Level 2 (Orc Warchief): Avg 9.2 Damage, 45% chance of 0 damage, 27% chance fatal
Level 8 (Wyvern Poison) vs. Level 7 (Salamander): Avg 33.7 damage; 50% chance of 0 damage, 15% chance fatal [class DC is lower, no effect from potent poisoner]
Level 8 (Wyvern Poison) vs. Level 7 (Young Black Dragon): Avg 24.4 damage, 60% chance of 0 damage, 7.25% chance fatal
Level 8 (Nettleweed Residue, Contact) vs. Level 7 (Young Black Dragon): Avg 44.7 damage, 55% chance of 0 damage, 16% fatal.
Level 10 (Spider Root) vs. Level 9 (Marid): Avg: 40.1, 55% chance of 0 damage, 13% chance of 150+ damage [Powerful Alchemy: 48.77 Avg, 50% 0, 18% chance fatal]
Level 10 (Spider Root) vs. Level 9 (Frost Giant): Avg: 10.2, 80% chance of 0 damage, 1% chance of 150+ damage [Avg 14, 75% 0, 2.3% chance fatal]
Level 10 (Wolfsbane, Ingested) vs. Level 9 Marid: Avg 109, 45% chance of 0, 27.6% fatal+
Level 15 (Dragon Bile, Contact) vs. Level 14 Veiled Master: Avg 75.1, 40% 0, 0% Fatal.
Level 15 (Purple Worm Venom) vs. Level 14 Veiled Master: Avg 9.28, 75% 0 Damage, 0% fatal. [Potent Poisoner, Avg 16.46, 65% 0, 0% fatal]
Level 15 (Purple Worm Venom) vs. Level 14 Adult Red Dragon: Avg 4.67, 85% 0, 0% Fatal [Potent Poisoner, Avg 9.28, 75% 0 Damage, 0% fatal]
Level 16 (Brimstone Fumes) vs. Level 15 Quelaunt: Avg: 28.63, 60% 0, 0% Fatal [Alchemist Class DC lower, no Powerful Alchemy boost]
Level 20 (Brimstone Fumes) vs. Lvl 19 Ancient Red Dragon: Avg 2.26, 95% 0. [Powerful Alchemy (DC 43): Avg 22.1, 65% 0, 0% Fatal]
Level 20 (Tears of Death, Contact) vs. Lvl 19 Ancient Red Dragon: Avg 206, 50% 0, 33% Fatal
Some takeaways:
--Contact and Ingested poisons can be quite good if you can figure out how to poison something out of combat. Contact could potentially still be usefulish for certain combat situations, where you poison something then make a tactical withdrawal.
--There's a severe lull of injectable poisons at higher level, and fort saves are too high. Contact and ingestibles keep up, and Brimstone Fumes is probably ok-ish with Powerful Alchemy, especially if you can poison multiple things at once, but nothing too great. In-combat poison use seems much more effective at low to mid levels.
--There's a decent chance of one-shotting something at level -1 in a lot of situations, but it varies.
Just looking at this, I'm skeptical that Powerful Alchemy is worth it. It is basically required for high level injectable/inhaled poison use to do anything with the poisons we've currently got, but is not very impressive even so. In most cases, at level poisons already have a higher DC than the class DC, so it really just helps with the levels where there is no good injectable/inhaled poison to bring up. There's also severe action economy issues with Powerful Alchemy, and Potent Poisoner doesn't scale up well to the end.
It's better to make multiple exposures against one creature. It can be calculated very easily.
So, as you can see, the only case where focusing on multiple creatures is roughly equivalent to poisoning one multiple times is if the monsters fail all their saves. So, unless the monsters you face have suboptimal Fortitude saves, it's better to poison multiple times the same creature (also, focus fire is a far better combat tactic than spreading damage).
I agree with your findings in the general case. However, focusing fire means the enemy dies quicker, which could mean they die before the poison has full effect. So there still may be cases where you want to tag a lesser target with poison early in the fight to maximize damage I think, but I can't say when that might be because that probably requires a pretty detailed analysis comparing your party's damage and average HP for monsters. Even still, maximum damage probably won't be as valuable as eliminating a target.
In my first session, a PC with 10 CON was bitten by a giant centipede. He would have died without his pal the druid to heal him and treat the poison.
Poisons can be very deadly. Whether they are fast-acting enough to make a difference in a typical encounter is an open question, though. By the time the poison gets nasty, either the adversaries or the PCs are likely to be out of the picture already.
I agree with your findings in the general case. However, focusing fire means the enemy dies quicker, which could mean they die before the poison has full effect. So there still may be cases where you want to tag a lesser target with poison early in the fight to maximize damage I think, but I can't say when that might be because that probably requires a pretty detailed analysis comparing your party's damage and average HP for monsters. Even still, maximum damage probably won't be as valuable as eliminating a target.
Well, considering that you can only prepoison a few weapons and that enemies will succeed half of their saves, this question should not be raised often.
In my opinion, the important part of poison is alpha strike: it greatly improves the damage of your party during the 2 first rounds. If, thanks to poison, you manage to drop a foe, you made a great impact on the fight. Optimizing damage in the long run is less important than scoring quick kills.
I do really hope they expand in detail how to use inhaled poisons. I know they kind of skimpped on it because it wn't come up until higher level games generally.
but currently we have no real way of knowing (that I can findi) how to use it exactly.
Its an interact to spread... But does that mean you can only open it on yourself in your hand?
Or can you throw it as part of that interact? If so.. range? It would be nice if they simplified it and stated that throwing inhale poisons work the same way as a bomb. Interact+strike single action to prep and throw with the same ranges (and preferably the same benefits of feat improvals)because in general, it feels like the best way to use poisons, other than sneaking and poisoning dinner, is to get a bunch in the small aoe poison cloud.
Rules state that you save against inhaled poison only when entering the cloud. So, currently, it's useless to throw it as it doesn't affect the creatures in it when it spreads. It can only be used defensively. But I agree it's clearly ridiculous that way and should be rewritten.
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It's simple common sense to read "Every creature entering this cloud is exposed to the poison" to include those creatures who are inside the cloud because they were in it when it was created.
End of problem.
The cleverest way to use inhalation poison is to make it release when the victim opens something, like a chest, a book, a potion vial or whatever. It should be more like a trap than an offensive option.