Ancestral Surge and the problem with PF2 math


Skills, Feats, Equipment & Spells


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You gain a +1 conditional bonus to spell rolls and spell DCs.
What that actually means?
If we calculate the DPR, we will conclude this:
if you have a 55% chance to hit (10+) and a 5% (20) chance to create for an expected average damage of 60% your average roll, the +1 increase your DPR to 60%, +10% = 70%, which is 70/60 = 1,16 times the "normal" amount, for a DPR increase of 16%. Doesn't sound bad on paper.
But in actual play? +1 means that it will transform a crit fail into a full 1 every 20 times, a fail in hit 1 every 20 times, and a hit into a create 1 more times every 20. So, this spell impact your actual roll 3 times every 20, so on average 1 every 6.6 times it is used. Meaning, a sorcerer with 18 CHA will, on average, gain an actual benefit from this class ability once every two adventuring days, if he get the opportunity to use it most of the 4 times on a spell that has all 4 degrees of success. The math gets worse if you use it for a spell with no critfail like most of to-hit spells.
PF2 is, at the moment, full of such low-impact ability that, while probably good when digging behind the math, are utterly unrewarding in actual play.


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I noticed this as well in my play test, the game's math is so tight there's no room to breathe and I'm enforces optimization just to participate in what the game has to offer.

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