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Elemental monks are really cool, but implementation has been spotty, with the Elemental Ascetic serving as a notable disappointment.
Looking at it from the other direction - how does the Water Dancer pan out?
Right off the bat the Water Dancer is more MAD since it needs some Cha.
Offensively, the Water Dancer loses flurry and stunning fist and takes a hit to UAS damage, which means it is going to have a hard time as a primarily unarmed combatant. Fortunately, it gets a blast... but without elemental overflow, infusions, composite blasts, or any way to reduce the burn cost of the one metakinesis it has access to (empower) the Water Dancer is significantly behind the hydrokineticist as a blaster. It's also going to have more difficulty with DR or cold resistance since it never gets a second type of blast. The unarmed strike is potentially useful as a backup strategy, but takes a lot of investment to keep relevant at higher levels compared to just switching blast types. Maneuver training is nice, but not a big benefit in absence of other features supporting maneuvers.
Defensively, the kineticist has a better low-level AC. At 1st level it can wear studded leather and use shroud of water for 5 points of AC bonus before using burn to enhance the shield. The Water Dancer gets to add Wis and 1 point of Cha as a Dodge bonus; since Wis isn't used for any other class features this is probably 2 points of AC. This may even out at high levels. At level 20, a hydrokineticist could get +6 Con +4 Dex from elemental overflow size bonuses, investing 4 points of burn into shroud of water for a +12 armour bonus, or +14 AC with the Dex bonus. This is assuming that the Kineticist's Dex is now high enough that armour is limiting; if the kinecicist gets better AC using shroud of water as a shield they can do so. The monk gets Wis+Cha+5, so assuming Wis is still 12 it needs a +6 Cha bonus (score of 22) to match the hydrokineticist's AC. Likely at this level, but again, MAD.
The kineticist is carrying more burn in order to activate Elemental Overflow, but that does also boost Fort/Ref saves. On the other hand, the monk has better-rounded defenses with a good Will save and still mind, immunity to disease and poison, wholeness of body, and SR.
The kineticist gets 10 utility talents. The monk only gets 5 with a 2-level delay, but water dance, water stride, and empty body are roughly comparable with kineticist talents available at similar levels so we could almost call it 8 talents with 3 locked-in choices. The monk also gets fast movement, a ki point for an extra +20 speed, high jump, timeless body, and tongue of the sun and moon (with the option to trade the last three or empty body out for better abilities using Quinggong).
Skill ranks/level are the same, but monk gets a slightly broader skill list: Kineticist gets Heal, UMD, and Knowledge (Nature) while Monk gets Climb, Escape Artist, Knowledge (History and Religion), Perform, Ride, Sense Motive.
Summary: The water dancer looks like it's at a significant disadvantage offensively. It has a lower low-level AC, but a better Will save, and its special defenses and lower incentive to take burn may give it a defensive advantage in the long run. It has more mobility, but generally less flexible utility.
Is it worth it? Could we make it worth it? Trading high jump for barkskin would probably put the water dancer on top defensively. Are there any Quinggong abilities that would significantly increase offense? What about a 2-level dip in Paladin, giving access to Smite for +Cha to hit/+2 Damage, and Divine Grace for +Cha to saves?
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Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me that AC bonus is a monk class feature that would change from WIS to CHR. So a Water Dancer would get + CHR (untyped) + CHR (dodge) + X as a bonus to AC, and the wouldn't be particularly MAD, not needing WIS or really STR.
Scorching Ray would be a nice Qinggong addition for DR problems.
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Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me that AC bonus is a monk class feature that would change from WIS to CHR. So a Water Dancer would get + CHR (untyped) + CHR (dodge) + X as a bonus to AC, and the wouldn't be particularly MAD, not needing WIS or really STR.
Huh. Yeah, that's RAW. I think the only reason I didn't make that connection is because I didn't think that they'd give one class Cha to AC twice. But that would explain why Nereid's Grace is so much more limited than the normal bonus; why it's capped by level and why it explicitly goes away when the Water Dancer is flat-footed.
That would certainly solve the low level AC issues, and probably put the Water Dancer solidly in the lead for defense overall.
Scorching Ray would be a nice Qinggong addition for DR problems.
Bit expensive, but that would work in a pinch.