
Daedaelus |

Hi All,
My group is entirely new players, though some are in multiple games right now and are learning faster than others.
The PCs are about to go to the Catacombs or to Thistletop. They're going to wake up in the morning to The Missing Bartender, but they've been hell-bent for the last session and a half on going to Thistletop, so they may well do that, despite strong hints that they should not yet. So, to the question:
I think it's quite likely that there will be a TPK in the near future, especially if they go to Thistletop now. We're early enough in the game where a mass party resurrection doesn't make sense in-game, and it's a new enough group of players that I don't want to get them used to deus ex machina. I also don't love the idea of "Oh, all of your siblings who have similar abilities to you/another party of adventurers/etc show up in town the day after you die." So while a TPK may well not happen, I want to be ready with something that they'll all enjoy.
What I've settled on (at least for now) is this:
Anything I'm not thinking to ask?
I will note that I haven't completed reading the entire Anniversary Edition - I'm just now to the Runeforge - so if there are other implications that I'm not considering by adding a gap of time to the beginning of the adventure, I'd appreciate knowing.

Emerald Cat |

Pointing out that Sandpoint would have to fight on two fronts if the goblins and catacomb denizens both attack while the party is away may be enough to convince them to deal with the catacombs first.
If your PCs are adamant about going to Thistletop, I'd recommend rewriting Thisteltop to be doable by Level 2 PCs. Design it so that they reach Level 3 upon completing Thistletop. Then rewrite the catacombs to be a worthy challenge for Level 3 PCs that will push them to Level 4 upon completion. That way they would be on track level-wise for the rest of the AP. I'd have the climax of the adventure take place in the catacombs.
You can always move RotR 7 years into the future if you get a TPK. Rewriting the AP to take place 7 years into the future shouldn't be too hard. There are very few hard references to time in the RotR. The players will never know that you moved the AP 7 years in the future.
The main problem is that
Speaking of Sheriff Hemlock, he did leave town to seek support from Mangimar. So you have a credible explanation for a new party of adventurers arriving in town.

Daedaelus |

Cat,
If I had time to rewrite the AP, I definitely would do that. And I know there's justification for new adventurers showing up, but I want a connection to the game, as all are first time players who might give up if they don't feel like their initial characters mattered.
I've read elsewhere that many have used Malfeshnekor as justification for delaying Nualia's attack by a few days, but would she wait 7 years? Would there be an uneasy truce in Sandpoint with the goblins, neither able to destroy the other? Would the goblins agree to hold off, so long as Sandpoint paid tribute?
I also wonder a bit how much players actually end up understanding about Nualia's motives- if her motive became to rule rather than to burn, and I allowed her to transform by means other than burning the entire town, (which might put her more into the greed camp), she could be ruling Sandpoint from Thistletop - if so, what would it be like for the kids to grow up in a town rules by a half fiend and her goblins?

Kalshane |
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Why are the players so determined to go to Thistletop? If you haven't run Missing Bartender yet, the only mention of the place should have been during Shalelu's exposition dump, which included 4 other goblin tribes and locations. There's nothing she says that should point them in that direction specifically. She then leaves to go find out more information about the source of the threat.
Sheriff Hemlock also asks the party to stick around town while he's gone. Haring off to a goblin-infested island on a whim doesn't really count as sticking around town.
Something you could do, which is kind of heavy-handed, but much easier than trying to re-write the whole AP, is to have them ambushed by Bruthazmus and some Thistletop goblins on the way there. Make it clear they're out of their league and if it gets too bad have Shalelu ride to the rescue to drive the bugbear off and then ask them why they left Sandpoint unguarded.

Jhaeman |

My advice is not to overthink this. Let them go to Thistletop if they want. If they get TPKd, they get TPKd. They can always roll up new PCs and Sheriff Hemlock can hire them to help defend Sandpoint. The campaign continues with the players a little bit wiser. It might be a good early lesson in knowing when to press forward and when to retreat.

Daedaelus |

I wish I hadn't given the details of the situation. I don't mind if they get TPKed, I'm just planning out the solution that works for my game (the kids). The question is about implications of a 7 year gap of time between the initial goblin assault and dealing with Nualia.
My other option is to build a party out of various townsfolk that they've met, which is something I'd prefer not to do since they have established personalities. And yes, I know they can just roll fresh characters or I can deus ex machina to save them - trust me when I say that neither suits the story I want to tell nor the players in my game.

Daedaelus |

Sheriff Hemlock also asks the party to stick around town while he's gone. Haring off to a goblin-infested island on a whim doesn't really count as sticking around town.
Something you could do, which is kind of heavy-handed, but much easier than trying to re-write the whole AP, is to have them ambushed by Bruthazmus and some Thistletop goblins on the way there. Make it clear they're out of their league and if it gets too bad have Shalelu ride to the rescue to drive the bugbear off and then ask them why they left Sandpoint unguarded.
So far Sheriff Hemlock's request has kept them in town, but only because Shalelu also keeps reminding them of it. She also keeps telling them that they aren't ready, but I'm not the railroading type, so I can't just keep saying no forever or they will stop looking for their own solutions, and only for the ones I give them.

Emerald Cat |

Cat,
If I had time to rewrite the AP, I definitely would do that. And I know there's justification for new adventurers showing up, but I want a connection to the game, as all are first time players who might give up if they don't feel like their initial characters mattered.
** spoiler omitted **
Yeah, rewriting entire scenarios is a little hairy. I understand if you don't want to do that.
Since you're so worried about a TPK, you may want to play the encounters so that your party gets a chance to escape once they realize they are overmatched. Goblins having bad tactics/discipline would be a good way to do this while being in character for them. For example, when one of the characters drops, several goblins might get distracted looting that character. Good luck getting the players to retreat before one of their characters dies, though.
Looking back at your original post, you said that you were about to run the missing bartender scenario. Getting your players to play through the catacombs first would not be difficult:
It sounds like your players are going to Thistletop to bring the fight to the goblins. In that case, all you have to do is have someone from Sandpoint inform them that a large group of goblins has broken into the glassworks and murdered all of the workers.
Tsuto's journal should be enough to motivate the players to explore the catacombs. I would recommend changing the journal to state that Tsuto has already convinced Eryllium to assault the town. Adding a battle plan involving Eryllium and co. attacking the town from within would be a nice touch.
That should get them back on track.

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I preface this with the comment that I've been running RPGs for 15 years and have access to any number of adventure paths or modules I could ever want to run... If you don't have that luxury, this may sound like a bad suggestion.
If you would like to let them TPK, I recommend ending the game at that point. Give them a little epilogue about Sandpoint burning in a goblin attack, and then shortly thereafter, an invasion from the Storval Plateau from an army of giants and a risen Runelord.
Then ask what they would like to do next! If you like printed adventures, run them another Adventure Path and set it in a world with no Sandpoint, and an alliance of nations (Lastwall, Ustalav, Korvosa and Magnimar, maybe even Belkzen!) against the rising power of a reborn Karzoug.
My players are sad when they TPK, but they understand that there is no coming back from it, and they tend to enjoy the thought that their failures and successes have a long term effect on the world they play in.

Kalshane |
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Another thing you could do is if the PCs fail in their assault on Thistletop and don't flee is to have them captured instead of killed. Nualia will welcome a fresh batch of sacrifices for Lamashtu. Have them wake up in the cells underneath and see if they can formulate a plan to escape. If they can't, you have an easy out in the form of Orik. He's had enough of Nualia and her crazy demonic sacrificing ways and sees the PCs as his way out. So he offers to spring them in exchange for them helping him leave Thistletop.
Depending on how you want to run things (and if they completely ignore looking for Ameiko when The Missing Bartender happens) maybe Ameiko is in another cell when they wake up. Or they run into Tsuto, his goblins and a tied up Ameiko on the road back to Sandpoint.

Daedaelus |

Thanks, Cat, for the suggestion about Goblins invading the Glassworks. That's probably what I will do if Ameiko isn't a strong enough reason for them to go.
I'm actually not worried about a TPK, assuming I can make my solution work. It might even be better (I have some buyers remorse among the players over some character choices). My only worry, and the only reason I posted at all in the first place, was to have some other brains help me game out what might happen in Sandpoint over 7 years from the Swallowtail Festival to the elimination of the Thistletop threat.
Everyone is giving me great answers to questions I'm not asking, like how to direct the PCs and other ways to handle a TPK. I spent the week since my last session searching the boards for solutions to both of those issues, and while I'm grateful to all of you for your advice on these subjects, it's not answering the question I'm asking, which is about the passage of time.

Meangarr |
I can't see any way Nualia succeeds in releasing Malfeshnikor, even with seven years. Assuming she even makes it to his prison (possible since she'll have Tsuto's help) he's just as likely to kill her and anyone with her. Assuming she isn't barghest food she, the goblins, and any remaining allies (probably just Tsuto and Bruthazmus, Lyrie and Orik surely didn't sign up for raiding a human settlement) will probably attack Sandpoint and almost certainly be defeated. Sandpoint is expecting an attack, has reinforcements from Magnimar, has fortification, and is populated by multiple NPCs with character levels. The surprise attack during the festival was a success only in that it achieved a very limited goal at the cost of a large number of goblins and an insider who aided in the town's infiltration. IF the PCs won't investigate the Glassworks surely someone in town can be persuaded to check in on the beloved innkeeper, so the smugglers tunnels wouldn't be available to Nualia.
Sandpoint would doubtless suffer some casualties, so in the future you could have some NPCs be deceased or scarred by the events. Perhaps Nualia would be repelled back to Thistletop and it would be decided she should be contained there rather than a costly raid be undertaken. Assuming Ripnugget survived the two of them would not continue long together, she'd probably kill him and appoint a more compliant goblin lieutenant. Contained on Thistletop the number of goblins would probably decline but the survivors would be a bit more experienced.
It sounds like you've considered most everything else. As long as the Catacombs are still taken on early that should be fine, and while Aldern's obsession becomes ickier when applied to a new generation of heroes as long as you still set it up you should be good to go.
I hope this helps, it's not the way I'd go but I'd be interested to hear how changing up the campaign in this way works out for you.

Jhaeman |

Everyone is giving me great answers to questions I'm not asking, like how to direct the PCs and other ways to handle a TPK. I spent the week since my last session searching the boards for solutions to both of those issues, and while I'm grateful to all of you for your advice on these subjects, it's not answering the question I'm asking, which is about the passage of time.
I think the reason you're getting advice that doesn't directly respond to the question you've asked is that (at least in my case) I thought you had chosen a really bizarre solution (jumping things 7 years in the future) to a relatively commonplace problem (a TPK). But, if you really want to do it, some of the things to think about:
1. What is Sandpoint like seven years from now? Who has died (from natural causes perhaps), what stores have closed, what stores have opened, what people have left town? You'll have to figure out how the place has changed, organically.
2. What have the bad guys been doing for the last seven years? (Nualia, Xanesha, Mokmurian, etc.) Things need to be far worse in Varisia, otherwise there would have been no need for heroes to arise in the first place.
3. What cascading effects does this have on pre-set timelines? Just to give one example, the timeline for the recent events involving Foxglove Manor and the Skinsaw Man's progression.
It's certainly do-able, but requires a lot of extra work to make everything fit together. Good luck and let us know how it goes.

Daedaelus |

I think the reason you're getting advice that doesn't directly respond to the question you've asked is that (at least in my case) I thought you had chosen a really bizarre solution (jumping things 7 years in the future) to a relatively commonplace problem (a TPK).
Exactly right, which is why I wish I hadn't framed it so much. And you lay out the questions well, so I thank you. That's what I was looking for
I've got an unusual group of players, which is why it's an unusual solution. There's almost a 20 year span in ages, and almost no gaming experience. I've had little trouble getting them to connect to Sandpoint, so much so that it's been 4 sessions and we're only just now getting to the Catacombs. If there is no TPK between now and the end of BURNT OFFERINGS, the kids are going to become McGuffins in the next three chapters, so hopefully this is all a mute conversation. And I may not pursue this course, I just wanted to game out what the work is and whether it's worth it.

Kalshane |
I just don't see you being left with anything that remotely resembles the currently-written AP if you jump ahead 7 years.
The argument that Nualia can never release Malfeshnekor seems suspect. Why would Lamashtu be guiding her in that direction if she can't do it? Why would she set a very dedicated minion up to fail? (I'm not saying Lamashtu wouldn't do that. She'd sacrifice any number of minions in an instant to further her own plans. The question is what is her goal in this scenario if it's not to see Malfeshnekor released?)
If the Catacombs and Thistletop aren't dealt with, Sandpoint is in serious trouble. Sandpoint is hardly fortified. They have a wall on the northern end and then two unguarded bridges to the East and South. Destroying the bridges could definitely hamper a goblin invasion, but that would likely take a lot of time and I'm not sure how much warning the town will have once the goblins decide to assault en mass.
Also keep in mind that each goblin death in this raid adds more power to the minor runewell beneath Sandpoint. So dead goblins=more sinspawn.
So you have a scenario where you have 100+ goblins led by a 6th level fighter/cleric (who can kill ordinary citizens in droves with Channel Negative Energy), a bugbear ranger, a 4th level wizard, 4th level fighter (though I really don't see Orik going through with the actual raid), a greater barghest, a handful of goblins with 4-6 class levels and possibly a monk/rogue attack from outside, while a group of Sinspawn come pouring out of the Glassworks, with every few goblins slain swelling their numbers even further. I just don't see it going well for Sandpoint, especially if a large number of goblins are focused on setting buildings on fire rather than engaging the towns defender's directly.
Even if the town survives, they're set upon by yet another serial killer a couple weeks later and shortly after that an ever-increasing number of ghouls sweeps through the farmlands before turning their sights on the town itself.
At this point, even if there are survivors and buildings standing, the town would be abandoned. They have no source of food (all the farmers have been eaten and/or turned into ghouls) their town is in ruins, their population ravaged... even the most dedicated person is likely to pull up stakes and move to Magnimar.
Meanwhile, in Magnimar itself, the city is thrown into chaos by the ever-increasing "Star Murders" as more and more successful business people and nobles fall to the blades of the Skinsaw Men, including the Lord-Mayor himself. And due to the Skinsaw being lead by a Justice, the attempts to restore order keep being sabotaged.
While the city is still reeling it is assaulted by an army of giants that has swept down from the Storval Plateau and crushed everything in its path.
I would say in 7 years you'd be picking up the campaign in Korvosa, one of the few remaining cities, in a Varisia ruled by the risen Runelord Karzoug.

Meangarr |
I see what you're saying about Lamashtu's motivation, and obviously it's ultimately DM's discretion, but going by the rules it's ridiculously unlikely. In terms of spells Mage's Disjunction would be needed to permanently free Malfeshnikor and Lyrie lacks the INT to cast it. Anti-magic field won't have him free long enough to make it to Sandpoint.
That leaves the method the Wizard who cast Binding setup to end the spell's effect. But the caster may not have set one up, it may require a person or object that no longer exists, it may not have been documented at all or in a way that survived the end of the Thassilonian Empire, and the documentation might not even be in Thistletop. Even if none of that's true Nualia and more likely Lyrie have to find it and know it when they do.
Also, as an aside, given Lyrie's obsession with Tsuto and her past willingness to kill to get what she wants I don't think her association with Nualia is likely to be a lasting one.
I think it can be inferred that Lamashtu knows Malfeshnikor is subject to a Binding spell and she knows that it can be broken, but if there is a method outside of Mage's Disjunction she doesn't know what it is, otherwise she would have shown Nualia in her vision. From her perspective she has a useful, but mortal, minion in Nualia and a somewhat more useful, immortal, minion in Malfeshnikor. Being a god trading one for even the off chance of regaining the other probably makes sense.
In the end if, as DM, you want Malfeshnikor to be released you can justify it given enough time, but if you want to put a large gap of time in Burnt Offerings without rewriting it completely I don't think you need to factor the Barghest into your plans.

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Rules doesn't matter because NPCs always use plot to win rules. Thats how they create artifacts :D
Aka, ap as written implies Nualia is only weeks away before her visions from her goddess and Lyrie's research creates ritual that gets rid of the particular binding that keeps Malfeshnekor in prison. Malfeshnekor is Lamashtu's servant who has been in contact with Nualia, that as much said. After he is realized, Nualia plans to unite all major goblin tribes of area with the barghest and recruit additional goblins from mountains north to the area for massive assaullt on sandpoint. So basically, if pcs take too long, sandpoint will be assaulted by hundreds of goblins.

Kalshane |
In the scenario above I also forgot the fact that Nualia has 3 Yeth Hounds. So 3 flying beasts that can potentially send anyone within 300' into a blind panic and have DR 5/Silver. It's very difficult to protect a town when most of the defenders have thrown down their weapons and are in a chaotic sprint away from the bad guys. Thinking about it, they're going to be more devastating than Malfeshnekor.
Even if you want to argue Lamashtu has for some unknown reason sent Nualia on a Snipe Hunt, I can't imagine she'd spend 7 years futilely trying to release Malfeshnekor. At some point she'd just go "Fine, I can destroy Sandpoint without him."

Meangarr |
Good point, I'd also completely forgotten about the Yeth Hounds. That said you could argue that they'd be difficult for Nualia to field against Sandpoint. Their Bay affects everything except evil outsiders, so they can't be used in close coordination with the goblins, who are just as likely to be panicked by the Yeth Hounds if they are within the area of effect. Also, and this may have just been an oversight, Nualia doesn't share a common language with the Yeth Hounds, meaning involving them in any precise tactics is right out. Given that Nualia's plan is freeing Malfeshnikor you could infer that her conclusion is she can't employ them in this way, otherwise the presence of the Yeth Hounds is pretty fatal for Sandpoint. The average damage of Sandpoint's guards doesn't crack the Yeth Hounds DR though, and Sandpoint's magic users might not have adequately prepared spells/wands to drive them off.

bonebrah |
As others have said, a 7 year passage of time has some serious implications on Sandpoint/the surrounding region and would result in a disjointed campaign, deviating so much from the AP that in my opinion it wouldn't be possible to continue as written. Unless you justified it somehow like Sheriff Hemlock returns from Magnimar with a veritable army and holds everything off in some crazy 7 year war. You'd have to do some creative hoop jumping to make it work, so it depends on how much you really want to invest/rewrite to make it work.
As for the buyers remorse for players, I've given mine the opportunity to reroll a level 4 character after Burnt Offerings since it's really more worldbuilding and about introducing the players to Sandpoint and has less to do with the overarching meta-plot of ROTRL. Perhaps after the events of chapter 1, a current PC decides the adventuring life isn't for them and they move far, far away to someplace that has less goblins/demon cults and is a bit quieter. A new PC or two (or three) could easily get wrapped up in the detective story beginning in chapter 2 without any need to have been involved in the events in chapter 1 or maybe they've heard of the great heroes of Sandpoint and wish to join their ranks, etc.

Callum |

Another option to consider would be that the events you've played so far aren't directly related to the rest of the story - the goblin attack and the theft of father Tobyn's bones weren't part of Nualia's plan. In the intervening seven years, she comes along and sets her plan in motion - which is what the now-grown-up kids get drawn into, while investigating what happened to the former heroes (who were killed by the Thistletop goblins without Nualia's aid).
Alternatively, you can say that it was all part of Nualia's plan, but this got disrupted somehow, by events outside her control. Perhaps Thistletop was attacked by some other monsters, or father Tobyn's bones were stolen before they got to Thistletop, and it's taken her seven years to get back on track.
In either case, you'll need to explain Ameiko's disappearance, if you've run the Missing Bartender encounter but they didn't take the bait. In this case, maybe Tsuto wasn't yet involved with Nualia, and had just returned to have things out with his family. Ameiko met him, and then escorted him out of town, returning a few days later. Seven years later, he comes back - this time with murderous intent, spurred on by Nualia.
You'll also need to find a way to link Aldern Foxglove to the new characters.