Part 4 starts off with the assumption that the PCs are on their way, but I can't see anything before that that would tell them they should check it out.
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Tsuto's journal in his inventory. If he managed to run away, they can try tracking him. If they captured him alive, they can both interrogate and read his journal.
Just confused, did you somehow miss the handout and his journal? .-.
Thistletop's location isn't exactly secret anyway, otherwise Shalelu wouldn't teach players of Thistletop goblin tribe when she gives her exposition on five tribes on area.
I played Burnt Offering twice, GMed it once. Between being their only real lead after the Goblin attack, Shalelu's exposition early on and Tsuto's journal, the real question is: How do I stop the group from wanting to go to Thistletop before part 4 starts?
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Once they have Tsuto's journal, there are really only two dangling plot threads: head off to Thistletop where Nualia is doing something nefarious, or head into the ruins beneath Sandpoint. Obviously, as a GM, you want them to do the latter, so there are two tricks you can pull to subtly guide them that direction that come to mind immediately.
1. NPCs. My players were forthcoming on any info they found with the important people in Sandpoint. If Kendra gets her hands on the diary, I figured she'd want to know what the Hell is going on under her city, and would pony up some cash to have the party explore it. If your PCs have placed their trust in any of the NPCs, I'd recommend having them offer to have the party look into the ruins before they leave.
2. Knowledge checks. You could call for the party to make some Knowledge (planes) checks. Assuming someone beats a DC 10, they know a quasit is a lesser demon of some sort, which might encourage them to figure out why a demon is hiding beneath Sandpoint. If they get higher, then give them more info about quasits.
If they decide to go to Thistletop after these suggestions, then that's their decision. They'll be a bit underleveled and underequipped, but it was their decision to go there.
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I played Burnt Offering twice, GMed it once. Between being their only real lead after the Goblin attack, Shalelu's exposition early on and Tsuto's journal, the real question is: How do I stop the group from wanting to go to Thistletop before part 4 starts?
This is how I have interpreted/run it.
1. It's important after the attack on the Swallowtail festival to emphasize that goblins from multiple tribes were attacking the town. And that Hemlock and guards were fighting a serious battle on the northern wall. First off goblins never attack in military style and the tribes never cooperate - both happening at the same time has everyone very agitated.
2. Shalelu's briefing should again stress there are multiple local tribes (the AP explicitly calls out 5) and it's not clear who or what is making the decisions or where the boss is located. Raiding a random tribe with a small force is risky since there's no way to know whether the risk has any reward.
3. Shalelu's warning and the dangerous goblin behavior convince the Sheriff and Mayor they have no choice but to send Hemlock to Magnimar for military assistance. They ask the pc's to hang out in town for a few days to boost morale. They do not think the pc's are equivalent to Hemlock but want to leverage their popularity (hopefully they've done a few other noteworthy things - skeletons, goblins in the closet, etc.) to reassure the populace while Hemlock is gone. Important message - they shouldn't leave town until he gets back.
4. After the pc's recover Tsuto's journal, it's clear Thistletop is the place to go for the goblin problem. However, the journal indicates and any town leader such as the Mayor should point out that there appears to be a threat right under the town that also needs investigating and lets them stay close. The pc's may to go to Thistletop before the Cathedral of Wrath and DM's wanting to avoid a railroad should let them but any NPC with knowledge of the situation should encourage them to check out the threat under the city first.
In short the pc's should know about Thistletop as a place but have no idea about it's importance until after they find Tsuto's journal and at that point something more proximate should draw their attention. Exploring the Cathedral of Wrath will confirm portions of the journal and make the rest even more alarming. Then a trip to Thistletop is the right answer.
Ameiko also mentions Thistletop when she is rescued, she says that Tsuto wanted her to join his group there. If the players cant figure it out, just have Ameiko tell them that Tsuto's base of operation was Thistletop.