
MagusJanus |

The town by Chernobyl is safe to visit now, provided you stay mostly on the roads or other paved surfaces. While I wouldn't suggest moving your family tomarrow, it's looking like it won't exactly take millennia for the area to be inhabitable. A century (of which a third is already gone by) seems more likely.
Actually, Chernobyl has already been declared safe for human habitation. In fact, it currently has permanent human residents who have moved back. According to the last medical report I read on them, they're actually in better health than they would be in other cities due to the cleaner air and lower pollution they're exposed to.
The problem with resettling Chernobyl now is the concrete over what was the reactor.

Scythia |

Scythia wrote:The town by Chernobyl is safe to visit now, provided you stay mostly on the roads or other paved surfaces. While I wouldn't suggest moving your family tomarrow, it's looking like it won't exactly take millennia for the area to be inhabitable. A century (of which a third is already gone by) seems more likely.Actually, Chernobyl has already been declared safe for human habitation. In fact, it currently has permanent human residents who have moved back. According to the last medical report I read on them, they're actually in better health than they would be in other cities due to the cleaner air and lower pollution they're exposed to.
The problem with resettling Chernobyl now is the concrete over what was the reactor.
I remember reading that they had plans to replace the elephant foot, but I didn't keep up with it.

MagusJanus |

What was the 1940s understanding of cancer?
Basically? The Hulk, zombies/mutants, and giant insects. That's pretty much the 1940s understanding of cancer in general. Science was a bit more advanced than the common people, but even they had some ideas about how radiation works that violate the laws of physics.
The military understanding is even worse in that era. Pretty much, the only reason the world does not currently resemble a nuclear wasteland is because the Soviet Union got nukes as well and the resulting game of chicken that was Mutually Assured Destruction put a kibosh on most of the American military's plans for deployment of nuclear weapons.

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The NPC wrote:What was the 1940s understanding of cancer?Basically? The Hulk, zombies/mutants, and giant insects. That's pretty much the 1940s understanding of cancer in general. Science was a bit more advanced than the common people, but even they had some ideas about how radiation works that violate the laws of physics.
The military understanding is even worse in that era. Pretty much, the only reason the world does not currently resemble a nuclear wasteland is because the Soviet Union got nukes as well and the resulting game of chicken that was Mutually Assured Destruction put a kibosh on most of the American military's plans for deployment of nuclear weapons.
I don't know.. I personally suspect that if Germany had acquired the atomic bomb first, they still would have lost the war due to lack of production, and if they had actually used one, the Bomb would have become a weapon of shame that no power would catch itself dead deploying. (keep in mind that at the time, the U.S. had to go to great lengths to have four bombs ready, two of which they used on Japan.

Ross Byers RPG Superstar 2008 Top 32 |

The NPC wrote:What was the 1940s understanding of cancer?Basically? The Hulk, zombies/mutants, and giant insects. That's pretty much the 1940s understanding of cancer in general. Science was a bit more advanced than the common people, but even they had some ideas about how radiation works that violate the laws of physics.
The military understanding is even worse in that era. Pretty much, the only reason the world does not currently resemble a nuclear wasteland is because the Soviet Union got nukes as well and the resulting game of chicken that was Mutually Assured Destruction put a kibosh on most of the American military's plans for deployment of nuclear weapons.
You're answering the wrong question - The NPC asked about the understanding of cancer, not of radiation. Cancer has been known as a wasting disease long before nuclear physics was a thing, and radiation is not the only cause of cancer, by a long shot.

MagusJanus |

I don't know.. I personally suspect that if Germany had acquired the atomic bomb first, they still would have lost the war due to lack of production, and if they had actually used one, the Bomb would have become a weapon of shame that no power would catch itself dead deploying. (keep in mind that at the time, the U.S. had to go to great lengths to have four bombs ready, two of which they used on Japan.
Germany never had a chance of developing the bomb first. They were missing certain key pieces of information due to their genocidal practices. They had already achieved nuclear fission in 1939 and already had all of the components necessary to produce nuclear bombs in relatively large numbers in production by the time the Allies became truly aware of the project. Their uranium production was, from what I understand, the model on which the U.S. based its Cold War uranium production back when we were building bombs as fast as we could pull uranium from the ground.
MagusJanus wrote:You're answering the wrong question - The NPC asked about the understanding of cancer, not of radiation. Cancer has been known as a wasting disease long before nuclear physics was a thing, and radiation is not the only cause of cancer, by a long shot.The NPC wrote:What was the 1940s understanding of cancer?Basically? The Hulk, zombies/mutants, and giant insects. That's pretty much the 1940s understanding of cancer in general. Science was a bit more advanced than the common people, but even they had some ideas about how radiation works that violate the laws of physics.
The military understanding is even worse in that era. Pretty much, the only reason the world does not currently resemble a nuclear wasteland is because the Soviet Union got nukes as well and the resulting game of chicken that was Mutually Assured Destruction put a kibosh on most of the American military's plans for deployment of nuclear weapons.
And I gave the answer; for the most part, the average person didn't even know cancer existed, despite the fact radiation had been known both to exist and to science to cause cancer from not long after chemotherapy was discovered (they discovered it when the people who administered chemotherapy started developing cancer from the high radiation exposure they suffered frequently). Scientists knew of skin cancer caused by radiation as early as 1902 and began to figure out it caused leukemia as early as 1911. Eventually, towards the end of the 1940s, the public knew radiation existed and was a bad thing... and a lot of highly-inaccurate information about why it's bad.
Unfortunately, public education on that severely lagged, and along with it so did government and military education. So, basically, if you're talking about science, you're talking about them beginning to figure out radiation is very bad. If you're talking the era in general, the Hulk movies are probably more accurate than what was generally known.

Ross Byers RPG Superstar 2008 Top 32 |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

Cancer has been a documented illness since 1600 BC. The 'average person' probably didn't know what caused it, but they knew it was a thing, the same way they knew that heart attacks were things.
Chemotherapy and radiation therapy are not the same thing. They are often administered to the same people, but are not the same thing.
The Hulk has nothing whatsoever to do with cancer.
The question was 'What was the 1940s understanding of cancer?', and from the context of the thread 'What was the 1940s understanding of the relationship between radiation and cancer?'. 'They thought radiation causes giant bugs' is not an answer to that question. Your second post is much more helpful.

MagusJanus |

Ever hear of wasting disease?
That's what cancer as we know it was called by the public. It was thought to be a singular disease; today, we know it covers everything from cancer to some eating disorders, several different viruses, several different bacterial infections, and several different types of physical trauma. It's currently understood to be an umbrella term instead of a singular disease.
It should also be kept in mind that the term "heart attack" didn't even exist until 1912; until then, it had been the disease angina. Even afterward, it's not really until the 1960s that the public became aware there was a difference (and angina being a relatively common term for a heart attack lasted longer). This is despite the Egyptians being aware of them thousands of years earlier.
What science knows and what is generally known are two very, very different things for most of human history. It's not up until the Cold War that the American public began to become truly educated on the basics of science (and some cultures started it later), and even now the gulf of knowledge between what the public knows and what science knows is rather vast. The public, also, has had to deal with a lot of miseducation and use of unfamiliar terms by people who didn't realize the public was unfamiliar with them. That's how the Hulk becomes related to the idea of cancer.

Vod Canockers |

And I gave the answer; for the most part, the average person didn't even know cancer existed, despite the fact radiation had been known both to exist and to science to cause cancer from not long after chemotherapy was discovered (they discovered it when the people who administered chemotherapy started developing cancer from the high radiation exposure they suffered frequently). Scientists knew of skin cancer caused by radiation as early as 1902 and began to figure out it caused leukemia as early as 1911. Eventually, towards the end of the 1940s, the public knew radiation existed and was a bad thing... and a lot of highly-inaccurate information about why it's bad.
Unfortunately, public education on that severely lagged, and along with it so did government and military education. So, basically, if you're talking about science, you're talking about them beginning to figure out radiation is very bad. If you're talking the era in general, the Hulk movies are probably more accurate than what was generally known.
Define average person, in 1938 1 in 1000 Americans were involved with the American Cancer Society (American Society for the Control of Cancer (ASCC)). Seems to me if you start adding in family and close friends, it isn't hard to get to 1 in 100 people in America.

MagusJanus |

MagusJanus wrote:Define average person, in 1938 1 in 1000 Americans were involved with the American Cancer Society (American Society for the Control of Cancer (ASCC)). Seems to me if you start adding in family and close friends, it isn't hard to get to 1 in 100 people in America.And I gave the answer; for the most part, the average person didn't even know cancer existed, despite the fact radiation had been known both to exist and to science to cause cancer from not long after chemotherapy was discovered (they discovered it when the people who administered chemotherapy started developing cancer from the high radiation exposure they suffered frequently). Scientists knew of skin cancer caused by radiation as early as 1902 and began to figure out it caused leukemia as early as 1911. Eventually, towards the end of the 1940s, the public knew radiation existed and was a bad thing... and a lot of highly-inaccurate information about why it's bad.
Unfortunately, public education on that severely lagged, and along with it so did government and military education. So, basically, if you're talking about science, you're talking about them beginning to figure out radiation is very bad. If you're talking the era in general, the Hulk movies are probably more accurate than what was generally known.
Which leaves 99% of the population not even involved. Even with your numbers, "average" is going to come out to "doesn't have a clue."

Vod Canockers |

Vod Canockers wrote:Which leaves 99% of the population not even involved. Even with your numbers, "average" is going to come out to "doesn't have a clue."MagusJanus wrote:Define average person, in 1938 1 in 1000 Americans were involved with the American Cancer Society (American Society for the Control of Cancer (ASCC)). Seems to me if you start adding in family and close friends, it isn't hard to get to 1 in 100 people in America.And I gave the answer; for the most part, the average person didn't even know cancer existed, despite the fact radiation had been known both to exist and to science to cause cancer from not long after chemotherapy was discovered (they discovered it when the people who administered chemotherapy started developing cancer from the high radiation exposure they suffered frequently). Scientists knew of skin cancer caused by radiation as early as 1902 and began to figure out it caused leukemia as early as 1911. Eventually, towards the end of the 1940s, the public knew radiation existed and was a bad thing... and a lot of highly-inaccurate information about why it's bad.
Unfortunately, public education on that severely lagged, and along with it so did government and military education. So, basically, if you're talking about science, you're talking about them beginning to figure out radiation is very bad. If you're talking the era in general, the Hulk movies are probably more accurate than what was generally known.
But that is far from only doctors and scientists.

Terquem |
2 people marked this as a favorite. |
The NPC wrote:It's not really what you are talking about but there was an accident at SL-1 in Idaho decades ago that killed a few people.So I was thinking something earlier- I know because I was there- and it got me thinking about nuclear explosions.
Besides the obvious drops on Japan in 1945 and possibly Chernobyl, what are some significant explosions where a number of people died?
I live in eastern Idaho, and ride a bus 50 miles from town out to the Idaho national laboratory four days a week where I am employed in the Nuclear Industry under a Department of Energy Sub Contract. The bus I ride drives by the SL-1 site everyday.
There are a couple of interesting books on the subject (they are easy to find on amazon, just search for "Idaho Falls Nuclear Accident")
I've worked in the Nuclear Industry for over twenty years.
My work is related to nuclear materials, not power plants.
So I want to clear up one or two small things (I am not a nuclear physicist, so please take it easy on me, okay).
A "Nuclear Explosion" can be used by people to mean a lot of different things, but in our industry, what we talk about (when we talk about the different kinds of accidents we want to avoid), is a Uncontrolled Criticality. A Criticality is when the reaction of a decaying radionuclide releases material in a configuration that results in a sustained reaction where the number of particles released with each decay is sufficient to cause a steady state of fission reactions.
In the nuclear power plant world, Criticalities are normal, and desirable.
In the special nuclear materials world, Criticalities are not, generally, desirable, and often fatal.
When nuclear materials undergo a criticality event, the amount of energy released can be extremely high, the more material involved in the criticality, the more energy that is released. The closer you are to the material undergoing the criticality, the greater will be your exposure to that energy. If you were to be at the very center of a criticality involving a large amount of special nuclear material, there is a real potential for your body to be vaporized by the intensity of the energy released.
When the materials undergoing a criticality, an uncontrolled criticality, are in contact with other materials (particularly water) the energy released can cause thermal expansion of those materials resulting in an explosion (but keep in mind the nuclear material itself is not exploding, in the same way we know that chemical explosives react).
These kinds of explosions are the kind most people are familiar with when we talk about places like Chernobyl and Fukushima (power plants that experienced accidents where a criticality went from being in the "normal and desirable" place to the "oh, crap, it's out of control" place).
Accidents involving nuclear materials where the Criticality changes states from , controlled" to "uncontrolled" are usually separated into two categories
Reactor Accidents (I have no experience with these)
and Process Accidents (I have received extensive training in the prevention of these, as this is the kind of work I am involved in)
One of the most recent Process Accidents occurred in Japan at the Tokai-Mura research facility. This accident killed two people, and involved, relative to this thread) a small amount of nuclear material.
I hope I've answered a few questions, and I'll be happy to answer more if anyone has any.

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Based on the OP's comments, he wasn't thinking of those, he was thinking about a supercritical detonation. ie: A nuclear device, either by itself or as the primary stage for a thermonuclear device. Which, I suppose, is really just an very large, intended criticality accident.
As has been said, I am not aware of any process accidents that lead to a nuclear detonation. Primarily as, by my understanding, predetonation throws the masses apart before supercriticality without proper design. Similarly, reactor accidents don't go supercritical because of steam explosions or predetonation spreading the material about.
It's possible a process accident involving the construction or handling of a gun-type bomb might detonate, but it's not very likely because of predetonation throwing the masses apart before supercriticality without sufficient speed and force when bringing the masses together.

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Based on the OP's comments, he wasn't thinking of those, he was thinking about a supercritical detonation. ie: A nuclear device, either by itself or as the primary stage for a thermonuclear device. Which, I suppose, is really just an very large, intended criticality accident.
As has been said, I am not aware of any process accidents that lead to a nuclear detonation. Primarily as, by my understanding, predetonation throws the masses apart before supercriticality without proper design. Similarly, reactor accidents don't go supercritical because of steam explosions or predetonation spreading the material about.
It's possible a process accident involving the construction or handling of a gun-type bomb might detonate, but it's not very likely because of predetonation throwing the masses apart before supercriticality without sufficient speed and force when bringing the masses together.
We've had some close calls in that area. In one case, a bomber containing atomic weapons was left neglected on a airfield for several days, until someone noticed what was sitting in it's hold. In another several bombs were dropped when a B-52 broke up over the South.

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No, we didn't.
A nuclear detonation requires very specific events to happen. there have been several accidents where material leaked, was scattered, or spread about.
None involved a supercritical detonation.
I didn't say any of those incidents involved a detonation. But given that at least one of the weapons on the B-52 that crashed was armed, we came way too close for comfort.
Although that incident shouldn't scare the pants off of you compared to the numerous cases of false alert at NORAD.

Ross Byers RPG Superstar 2008 Top 32 |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

Although that incident shouldn't scare the pants off of you compared to the numerous cases of false alert at NORAD.
And their Soviet counterparts, but that's all getting a bit off topic for this thread.
So far, for nuclear deaths, we have:
2 bombs dropped on cities
A bunch of atomic tests (which mostly killed pigs placed as human proxies, unless you want to go full conspiracy)
Some meltdowns and steam explosions (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, etc.)
Subcritical processing accidents, that kill through radiation poisoning.
Only those first two types would seem to have the 'hole punched in reality' thing the OP is looking for.
Maybe an alternate history where there was a limited nuclear exchange during the Korean War? That is, MacArthur got his way, and US forces started deploying tactical nuclear weapons? This was before MAD as a doctrine, so it could have theoretically stayed small scale as long as strategic nuclear weapons and wholesale annihilation of cities stayed out of it.

MagusJanus |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

But that is far from only doctors and scientists.
Where did I claim that only doctors and scientists knew it? (If I actually did claim this, could you link the post? I'm not finding it, but I'm not ruling out the possibility because my review was far from thorough due to life.)
Some meltdowns and steam explosions (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, etc.)
Three Mile Island didn't kill anyone. Despite a lot of the anti-nuclear crowd claiming it did, that's one of the nuclear incidents that had zero casualties.
Neither did Fukushima; all of the deaths that occurred in relation to that meltdown occurred because of the evacuation itself and the conditions the evacuees were left in.

The 8th Dwarf |

Tinfoil hat time......
Below is from wiki.
Aum Shinrikyo a Japanese Doomsday cult bought a sheep station (ranch) called Banjawarn in Western Australia (the empty part of Australia...terrifyingly, mind numbingly empty)
They used it to test the sarin gas that they released in terrorist attacks in Japan.
On the night of 28 May 1993 a mysterious seismic disturbance was detected in Western Australia and found to have emanated from south of Banjawarn.
The event sent shock waves through hundreds of miles of desert but was witnessed only by a few long-distance truck drivers and gold prospectors. They reported seeing a fireball in the sky and hearing a protracted low-frequency sound. The cause of the event remained a mystery, however.
The speculation on the seismic event was used by Bill Bryson in his book In A Sunburned Country (named Down Under in the UK) as a metaphor and an example of the world's lack of interest in Australia and its affairs. He points out that in 1997 there were just 20 articles in the New York Times on Australia (compared to, for example, 50 on Albania), and that this was a good year. He describes this as a shame, as Australia is "A country where interesting things happen,… all the time".
Bryson goes on to describe the seismic event at Banjawarn in detail, drawing on the NYT article, concluding that Australia is a country "so vast and empty that a band of amateur enthusiasts could conceivably set off the world's first non-governmental atomic bomb on its mainland and almost four years would pass before anyone noticed".[12]

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Vod Canockers wrote:But that is far from only doctors and scientists.Where did I claim that only doctors and scientists knew it? (If I actually did claim this, could you link the post? I'm not finding it, but I'm not ruling out the possibility because my review was far from thorough due to life.)
Ross Byers wrote:Some meltdowns and steam explosions (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, etc.)Three Mile Island didn't kill anyone. Despite a lot of the anti-nuclear crowd claiming it did, that's one of the nuclear incidents that had zero casualties.
Neither did Fukushima; all of the deaths that occurred in relation to that meltdown occurred because of the evacuation itself and the conditions the evacuees were left in.
The leader of the 50 who stayed did die two years later from cancer of the esophagus. We may well see a spike in cancer cases.